Monday, September 9, 2024

Inaction

We did nothing.

- Donald J. Trump,
summing up his accomplishments on the issue of gun violence

This week's featured post is "The Word of the Week: Sanewashing".

This week everybody was talking about tomorrow night's debate

I'm not going to say much about this because I'm trying not to think about it. It will happen, I can't influence the outcome, and by Wednesday morning we'll know how it went. Kamala Harris is smarter and sharper, but a shameless liar always has a puncher's chance in these things, especially when moderators refuse to fact-check, as they did in the Trump-Biden debate.

Recent polls have Harris up nationally by 2.8%, according to the 538 polling average. Given the Electoral College's thumb on the scale, that's a toss-up. Hillary's popular-vote margin of 2.1% wasn't quite enough, but Biden's 4.5% definitely was. Democrats hold a similar 2.6% edge in congressional generic ballot polls.

The Electoral College shames our country. Twice in this century, it has allowed the candidate who got the second-most votes to claim the presidency. People only support the Electoral College to rationalize the unfair advantage it gives their side. Can you imagine how Trump would scream if he got more votes than his opponent, but still lost the election?

I've decided not to do a state-of-the-race post until after the debate. But here's Ruben Bolling's account of the campaign so far.

and Russia, Russia, Russia

We all know that "the Big Lie" is Trump's claim that he really won the 2020 election, and his victory was stolen from him by fraud. But a lie of similar size is his claim that "Russia, Russia, Russia" was a hoax cooked up by his enemies, and that investigations like the Mueller Report "cleared" him of wrongdoing. (This is covered in Chapter 1 of Steve Benen's new book "Ministry of Truth: Democracy, reality, and the Republicans' war on the recent past".)

John Durham's sham investigation of "the Russia hoax" went on longer than the Mueller investigation, and came up empty when juries quickly dismissed two prosecutions against minor characters in its conspiracy theory. The "crime of the century" Trump advertised was never revealed.

This week we got a reminder that Russia has never stopped trying to promote the American right wing. An indictment released Wednesday charges that the Russian state media company RT funneled $10 million through an American company (obviously Tenet Media, though the indictment does not name the company) to fund right-wing influencers online.

The people who ultimately got the money are all claiming they were duped, and had no idea Russia was funding their work. Author Renée DiResta observes:

Buying authentic influencers is a far better use of funds than creating fake personas, because they bring their own trusting audiences and are actually, you know, real.

The Democratic Mormon X-account Dem Saints notes "The irony of calling Kamala a communist while cashing Russian checks."

and the Georgia school shooting

Wednesday, a 14-year-old brought an AR-type weapon to Apalachee High School in Winder, Georgia and began shooting, killing four and wounding nine. He has been charged with murder and will be tried as an adult. His father faces manslaughter and other charges for providing the gun “with knowledge [his son] was a threat to himself and others.”

I'm not sure how I feel about either of those prosecuting decisions. No matter what he's done, a 14-year-old is not an adult. And the father deserves consequences of some sort, but manslaughter seems a bit much. More punishment is not the solution to every problem.

Gun violence (like climate change) is one issue where the difference between the two parties is stark. Kamala Harris responded: "It doesn't have to be this way." Meanwhile, J. D. Vance said: "This is a fact of life." Donald Trump called the shooter "a sick and deranged monster", as if the important issue for a leader to address is how to assess blame. In the past he has said "We have to get over it, we have to move forward.", as if school shootings are acts of God with no policy implications.

Another Republican response came from Governor Kemp:

This is not the day to talk about safety or policy. We need thoughts and prayers for the victims, law enforcement, and educators.

For Kemp, it never is the day. Just two years ago, he signed a law that allows Georgians to carry handguns in public without a license or background check.

And here's Trump, accepting the endorsement of the NRA in May:

In my second term, we will roll back every Biden attack on the Second Amendment.

At an NRA event in February he bragged:

During my four years, nothing happened. And there was great pressure on me, having to do with guns. We did nothing.

This TikTok video is a very raw response from a Mom who says she takes pictures of her kids every day so she will know what they were wearing in case something happens. She contrasts Trump's attention to imaginary issues like schools changing kids' genders with his disinterest in actual problems like kids getting shot at school.

Former Missouri high school teacher (and one of my favorite Substack bloggers) Jess Piper describes how disturbing active shooter drills are for teachers, not to mention students.

I also know that kids who are stuck in the hallway during an active shooter event are left in the hallway. Every single police officer who conducted drills told us the same thing: if you have a student begging to get into your classroom, refuse them. They could be the shooter.

During one drill, complete with explosions and smoke in the hallway, someone pounded on her locked classroom door and begged to be let in. She followed instructions and did not open the door. Even though she knew it was a drill, she felt traumatized afterwards. (Fortunately this was a teachers-only drill with no students present.)

Piper lists the common-sense changes the vast majority of voters would like to see: universal background checks, safe storage laws, and red flag laws.

Those proposals run into the same objections gun-violence apologists always raise: They won't stop every shooter. No solution is perfect, so we should do nothing.

Qasim Rashid rebuts the nine most common NRA myths.

If you're willing to accept school shootings as a "fact of life" and think government should "do nothing" about them, you know how to vote. If you believe that it doesn't have to be this way, you also know how to vote.

and the corporate media covering for Trump's mental decline

That's the subject of the featured post, introducing the term sanewashing, which has been around for a while, but whose usage has recently exploded.

and Trump's legal cases

Judge Juan Merchan delayed sentencing Trump for his 34 felony convictions until after the election. Frustrating as this is, Politico's Ankush Khardori explains the judge's thinking.


The federal January 6 case is back in Judge Chutkan's court, which now has to deal with the Supreme Court's invention of presidential immunity. There are so many issues to sort out that we are still months or maybe even years away from trial, even if Trump doesn't win the election and order the Justice Department to drop the charges. But between now and election day Chutkan may hold evidentiary hearings or request briefs that could allow Jack Smith to introduce evidence the public hasn't seen yet.


Trump must think the E. Jean Carroll defamation cases (where juries found him responsible for sexual abuse and defamation, totaling up to nearly $90 million in damages) works in his favor politically, because he purposefully called attention to it Friday.

He didn't have to show up for the hearing in federal appeals court about his attempt to overturn the initial $5 million verdict, but he did. He also didn't have to make a 49-minute statement to the press afterward, but he did that too.

The appeals court can't just substitute its own judgment for the jury's, because the jury heard witness testimony live rather than reading it in a transcript. So who the jury decided to believe is not reviewable. What the appeal is about is whether the jury should have been allowed to hear one of the witnesses at all, or listen to the infamous Access Hollywood tape, where Trump confessed to doing in general the kind of thing Carroll accused him of specifically.

The witness in question supported Carroll's case by testifying that Trump had groped her on an airplane, something he continues to deny. In his press statement, Trump did what he so often does, saying that the witness wasn't attractive enough to assault.

Frankly, I know you’re going to say it’s a terrible thing to say, but it couldn’t have happened, it didn’t happen, and she wouldn’t have been the chosen one. She would not have been the chosen one.

"The chosen one" -- as if it's an honor, and women are lining up hoping that Trump will grope them. All I can say is: "What an asshole." You can watch the video here; it looks and sounds just as bad as it reads.

Oh, and Trump also lied about Anderson Cooper, as Cooper demonstrated Friday evening.

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The world's most "liveable" city? Vienna.


I was going to write a summary of the Democrats' best chance to retain the Senate, but I was going to say exactly what Jay Kuo says: It all comes down to Jon Tester winning in Montana and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell beating Rick Scott in Florida. Doing both probably keeps the 51-49 margin.


The knock on most renewable energy is that it's unreliable; the sun isn't always shining and the wind doesn't always blow. The answer to that problem is battery storage. The Economist reports on the state of grid-scale batteries.

Massachusetts is making a major investment in offshore wind power.

How fast climate change causes sea level to rise depends to a large extent on what is happening under the glaciers of Greenland -- and nobody really knows.


It's September and Republicans control the House, so it must be time to talk about a government shutdown. The issue House Republicans are pushing this time is to require proof of citizenship to register to vote.

That provision may sound reasonable if you don't think about it too long -- after all, we all want American elections to be decided by Americans. But basically it causes a problem without solving a problem.

It causes a problem because lots of legal American voters can't easily produce proof of citizenship. In general, poor people have little incentive to get a passport, and Americans who have moved around a lot may have lost track of their birth certificates a few hops ago. (Again, there's a socio-economic factor: If you've ever had to leave someplace in a hurry, taking all your important papers with you may not have been a priority.) You can probably go back to the county where you were born and pay a fee to get a new copy, but that's a big enough hurdle to keep many people from voting -- which may be the whole point.

As for the problem this idea is supposed to solve -- noncitizens voting -- it isn't really a problem. Noncitizen voting is already illegal, and there is absolutely no evidence that significant numbers of noncitizens are voting (other than in local elections in cities that allow it). U.S. News summarizes:

Almost all available data says that noncitizen voting in federal elections, though not unprecedented, is incredibly rare.

In 2016, North Carolina audited its elections and found that 41 legal immigrants had cast ballots despite not yet being citizens out of 4.8 million votes cast. The state’s election board found that the votes made no difference in any state election.

Georgia’s Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger conducted an audit of the state’s voter rolls in 2022 and found that 1,634 had attempted to register but all were caught and none were actually registered.


God help me, but I agree strongly with Dick Cheney.

In our nation’s 248-year history, there has never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump. He tried to steal the last election using lies and violence to keep himself in power after the voters had rejected him. He can never be trusted with power again

I still hold him responsible for the Bush administration's torture policy and would like to see him tried at The Hague. But he's right this time, and I appreciate him not including some poison pill in his endorsement. I couldn't have made the point better.

In recent weeks there has been a steady drumbeat of Republicans (or former Republicans) endorsing Harris: Adam Kinzinger; Liz Cheney; 238 staffers of the Bushes, Mitt Romney, and John McCain; Jimmy McCain; Rupert Murdoch's son James; and many others.

Other Republicans have not endorsed Harris, but have announced that they won't vote for Trump: Mike Pence, Pat Toomey, Meghan McCain, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan.

The way the announcements are dribbling out makes me wonder if someone in the Harris campaign is orchestrating the timing. But apparently it's not all leading up to George W. Bush, whose office says he won't endorse anyone this year.


In case you still respect Elon Musk: On September 1, he retweeted (with the comment "Interesting observation.") a totally wacko theory that only "high-status" or "high-T" men should have input into political decision-making. The justification is that "people who aren't able to defend themselves physically" process everything through a "safety filter" and aren't free to ask "Is this true?" The ideal is "Democratic, but a democracy only for those who are free to think."

Maybe I'm having a low-T day, but I can't remember ever considering the idea that testosterone might enhance rationality. There's a reason why we talk about guys who "think with their dicks". When the ancient Athenian playwright Sophocles got old and felt his libido waning, he compared it to being freed from a harsh master.


The week's best comeback. The Economist published an article "The hard right takes Germany into uncharted territory". And Jathan Sadowski replied:

Oh I don't know, I think that territory is actually very well charted.

The Economist edited, replacing "uncharted" with "dangerous".

and let's close with something tasty

Have a few thousand gallons of milk you need to do something with before they go bad? Maybe you too can take a run at the Guinness record for the largest ball of string cheese. The UPI story and the YouTube link disagree about the exact weight. (Was it 2200 pounds or just 1400 pounds? I think the YouTube link just did the kilogram/pound conversion wrong.) But it's big. Sadly, the story doesn't say whether anyone will get to eat it.

Monday, September 2, 2024

Cornerstones

It was the labor movement that helped secure so much of what we take for granted today: the 40-hour work week, the minimum wage, family leave, health insurance, Social Security, Medicare, retirement plans. The cornerstones of middle-class security all bear the union label.

- Barack Obama

This week's featured posts are "Can Trump Steal Georgia?" and "A Week in Trump's Declining Spiral".

This week everybody was talking about Trump's downward spiral

As I explained in the Teaser, I didn't really set out to write two Trump articles this week. I planned the Georgia article, but then as the week went on, there was some new Trump outrage every single day. This summary was getting swamped with them, so I moved them all to their own article.

and the Harris interview

Wednesday night, CNN aired a much-ballyhooed interview (transcript, video parts 1, 2, 3) where Dana Bash asked questions and Kamala Harris and Tim Walz answered them. The Democratic ticket survived the interview without blundering, but overall the interview just underlined the point I was making two weeks ago: Mainstream political journalism is broken. Answering their stupid questions does nothing to serve the cause of democracy.

Bash spent the interview asking Harris and Walz to respond to baseless accusations Trump and Vance keep making. Basically, she was playing the role of the trouble-making gossips I knew in junior high. ("Do you know what Marcy is saying about you?") I find myself agreeing with Jeff Tiedrich (who elaborated in more colorful language than I'm going to use here):

“Tim Walz lied about IVF” is a right-wing talking point. “Kamala Harris isn’t really Black” is a right-wing talking point.

pestering Democratic candidates about right-wing talking points is not journalism. it’s being a Republican tool.

The exchange that sums up the interview is this one:

BASH: Speaking of Republicans, I want to ask you about your opponent, Donald Trump. ... He suggested that you happened to turn Black recently for political purposes, questioning a core part of your identity.
HARRIS: Yeah.
BASH: Any—
HARRIS: Same old, tired playbook. Next question, please. (LAUGH)
BASH: That’s it?
HARRIS: That’s it.

Bash may have been surprised by Harris' dismissal of her question, but did it deserve any lengthier answer? Like a junior-high gossip, wasn't Bash angling for Harris to insult Trump in some way she could then carry back to him? ("Kamala Harris says you're a racist. How do you respond to that?")

Even the questions that sounded substantive really weren't. For example, Bash started the interview with: "What would you do on Day 1?"

Day 1 is only interesting when there is a change in parties, because -- unless the new president wants to be a dictator, as Trump has said he does -- the only possible actions are executive orders that reverse the previous administration's orders. So Biden's Day 1 was significant because he

  • rejoined the Paris Climate Accords
  • reversed Trump's Muslim ban
  • stopped construction on Trump's border wall
  • reversed Trump's moves to disengage from the World Health Organization.

Harris doesn't have any similar night-and-day disagreements with Biden's orders. Everything she has been talking about -- restore the protections of Roe v Wade, safeguard voting rights, restore the child tax credit, build more affordable housing, subsidize first-time home buyers, shift some of the tax burden from the middle class to the very rich, pass the border bill Trump had his minions in Congress block, etc. -- requires the cooperation of Congress, which isn't going to get any of it done in one day.

Bash knows this, so why is she asking? To set up critical headlines, like Politico's "Harris Dodged Questions About Her Day One Plans". (Politico's article went on to describe the dramatic actions five presidents took on Day 1. All five, of course, replaced presidents from the opposite party.)

How do maneuvers like this serve the voters, or democracy in general?


Asha Rangappa posts an interesting analysis of why Harris dismissed Bash's turned-Black question, and how this tactic is driving Trump nuts.

Rangappa points to the Karpman Drama Triangle, which simplifies interpersonal conflicts down to three roles: persecutor, rescuer, and victim. From time to time Trump takes any of the roles, but his goal is always to wind up as the Victim, as in "I did everything right, and they indicted me."

By saying "Next question, please", Harris is refusing to strike back at Trump and give him something to play the Victim over.


In contrast to their criticism of Harris for avoiding interviews, the media often gives Trump credit for responding to questions. But they never ask him anything hard, like: "What were you planning to do with the classified documents you were keeping at Mar-a-Lago? And why did you tell the government you had given them all back when you hadn't?"

They don't ask such questions because they know what the response (which doesn't qualify as an "answer") would be: "That's a nasty question. You're the fake media."

Let's be honest: When Trump faces real questions, he never answers them. To this day, he hasn't given a coherent response to the charges in any of his four indictments. (Instead, he attacks the prosecutors, the judges, the FBI, the witnesses, the jurors, and the Biden administration. He makes sweeping denials like "I did nothing wrong." But he never addresses the evidence against him.) He complains that the media doesn't tell his side of the story, but that's because he has never settled on a single story to tell.


In view of all the stuff Trump has gotten away with (so far), I have to laugh at the attempt to drum up some Lilliputian Harris scandal. This week's attempt: She claims she worked at McDonalds, but never listed it on a resume. Does anybody applying for a job after law school list their fast-food summer jobs on their resumes?


The media often digs into the nuts-and-bolts inside-baseball of campaigning -- fund-raising, polls, ads, strategies -- but presents a very naive view of governing. They want a detailed picture of a candidate's policy proposals, as if presidents were kings who could simply decree those proposals into law.

That's how you get questions like Bash's "The steps that you’re talking about now, why haven’t you done them already?" A bunch of those "steps" -- codifying Roe v Wade protections, passing the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, passing the border bill, restoring the child tax credit -- have gone to Congress and been blocked by the House Republican majority. Others, like shifting the tax burden from the middle class to the billionaires, stand no chance of getting Republican support.

Every administration's policies are a compromise between the president's vision and what can get through Congress. Implicit in all of Harris' proposals is the assumption that Democrats will hold the Senate and regain the majority in the House.

During its first two years, when it had slim Democratic majorities, the Biden/Harris administration managed to get done an amazing number of things -- far more than Trump -- like funding infrastructure (which Trump kept promising but never accomplished), and beginning to transition away from a fossil-fuel economy that is leading to a climate-change apocalypse (a transition Trump wants to reverse with a drill-baby-drill policy, which somehow will make bacon cheaper). But no, they weren't able to implement the full Democratic change agenda. During the last two years, they have artfully kept MAGA nihilists in the House and Republican partisans on the Supreme Court from undoing all that progress, but they haven't managed to push further.

In this environment, ten-step plans are beside the point. Voters need to understand the sharp contrast in the underlying values of the two parties.

  • Women have rights vs. wombs belong to the state.
  • Save the planet for future generations vs. drill-baby-drill.
  • Stand up for democracy vs. give in to Putin.
  • Focus policy on the middle class vs. cut billionaires' taxes and wait for prosperity to trickle down.
  • Support the rule of law vs. let presidents commit crimes and become autocrats.

How many details do you need to pick a side?

and the hostages

Six more Israeli hostages were found dead in Gaza over the weekend. According to AP:

Three of the six hostages found dead — including an Israeli-American — were reportedly scheduled to be released in the first phase of a cease-fire proposal discussed in July.

The deaths sparked massive protests in Israel yesterday, with protesters charging that the Netanyahu government is not doing enough to get the remaining hostages returned. The nation's largest union has announced a nationwide general strike to begin this morning.

The Biden administration perpetually claims to be on the verge of getting a hostages-for-ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, but something always falls through at the last minute. Naturally, each side blames the other for not negotiating in good faith and not really wanting peace. It is difficult to criticize one side without seeming to endorse the other.

According to local authorities, more than 40,000 Palestinians have died as a result of the fighting in Gaza. It is never clear how many of them were Hamas warriors and how many were civilians in the wrong place at the wrong time.

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I've been wondering for some while about the persistent charges that Democrats support "abortion after birth". Since I've never seen a Democrat endorse the idea, or heard any examples of an after-birth abortions happening somewhere, I've assumed these are just lies.

But lies are usually based on something, even if reality has been grossly distorted by the time the claims get made. I think I've finally found the something in this case.

Back in 2022, California passed a law AB 2223, which protected women from prosecution after miscarriages.

The law came in response to the prosecution of two Kings County women who were criminally charged after having miscarriages. Though charges in both cases were dismissed, one woman spent 16 months in jail and the other spent nearly four years. The Kings County District Attorney has vowed to bring new charges in one case, according to CalMatters. According to Wicks’ office, at least 1,300 people have been criminally prosecuted for having miscarriages, stillbirths or self-managed abortions in the last 20 years.

AB 2223 and its author drew heavy criticism from the conservative anti-abortion movement, with some organizations, such as the California Family Council, alleging that the bill would effectively decriminalize infanticide. That is not true. The law does prevent pregnant people from being criminally charged in the event that an infant dies due to pregnancy-related causes. It does not decriminalize the killing of infants.

So if a miscarriage or self-managed abortion results in a baby who is alive but fatally damaged, the woman can't be charged if the baby dies from that damage.

Other states have since passed similar laws, resulting in the after-birth abortion rhetoric.


I still haven't got a handle on the feud between Elon Musk and Brazil's supreme court. But this week it led to the court ordering Brazilian ISPs to block the Twitter/X platform.

The dispute stems from X's usefulness as a tool for spreading dangerous disinformation, like bad health advice or incitement to political violence. Brazil demanded that X block certain disinformation-spreading accounts, which Musk called "censorship" and refused to do.

I'm sure many other countries are also worried about X and disinformation, so they are watching to see how this plays out.


Back in the 2000 campaign, Republicans would sum up Bush's charm advantage over Gore by asking which candidate you'd rather have a beer with (ignoring the fact that Bush was a recovering alcoholic who couldn't drink any more). In 2024, I propose a different test: Who would you rather go to the state fair with?

and let's close with something that takes training

Throwing out the first pitch is a longtime baseball ceremony that is typically used to call attention to some local celebrity or community leader. Some honorees wilt under the pressure of being watched by thousands, and bounce the ball to the plate or toss it so wide of the mark that it can't be caught.

But Wednesday, Shohei Ohtani's dog Decoy delivered a memorable first pitch for a game between Ohtani's Dodgers and the Baltimore Orioles. With Shohei behind the plate, Decoy squatted on the pitching rubber waiting for the sign, then picked up the baseball with his mouth and delivered it directly to his master, dropping it onto home.

Shohei also had a good game, hitting a home run and stealing two bases.

Monday, August 26, 2024

Estimation

Never underestimate a public school teacher.

- Tim Walz

This week's featured post is "The Convention That Ate Republicans' Lunch".

This week everybody was talking about the Democratic Convention

The featured post focuses on how the DNC reclaimed Reagan-era values that Republicans have stopped taking seriously or have let drift away from American reality: freedom, family, marriage, tradition, masculinity, and what makes someone American.

I know I mentioned this in that post, but it deserves a second plug: One standard element of a political convention is the roll call of the states as the delegates announce their votes. The DNC did it a little differently from the RNC.

The DNC turned roll call into a dance party, with each state choosing music appropriate to itself, like Lynyrd Skynyrd's "Sweet Home Alabama" or Illinois choosing Alan Parson's "Sirius", the walk-on music the Chicago Bulls use when they play in that same arena. My own state, Massachusetts, picked the Dropkick Murphy's "I’m Shipping Up to Boston". But Georgia stole the show by getting Atlanta's Lil Jon to perform his own "Turn Down for What".


One difference between the conventions the featured post didn't cover: The RNC's message centered on hero-worship: America is in terrible shape, but if we elect Donald Trump again, he will save us. The DNC was more of a pep rally for activists. Speaker after speaker urged the delegates (and by extension those watching at home) to "do something": volunteer for the campaign, send money, make sure your friends are registered to vote. Kamala Harris will not save us by herself; her campaign is the vehicle through which We the People will save ourselves and each other.


I've never seen condoms used for political advertising before.


Major media fact-checking during the conventions was somewhere between comical and infuriating.

If you're a person actually interested in the truth, the main thing you need to know about the Democratic Convention speakers is that they were far and away more truthful than the Republican speakers. Nothing at the DNC rivaled the big lies that form the scaffolding for MAGA policies: the "migrant crime wave", or that illegal immigrants are voting, or that other countries are emptying their jails and insane asylums to send their unwanted people to the US.

None of that is even remotely close to being true.

But both-sides-ism decrees that fact-checkers had to flag Democrats for something. So when Tim Walz said that "IVF and fertility treatments" are "personal for Gwen and I", USA Today had to point out that the Walzes' daughter Hope resulted from a different fertility treatment than IVF, as if IVF hadn't been the next option, and as if succeeding before reaching that point would give the Walzes less empathy with infertile couples who do need IVF. In short: Nothing Tim said was wrong or needed correction.

Or when Pete Buttigieg said that "crime was higher on [Trump's] watch", USA Today found it important to point out that not all crime rates were higher all the time. So the murder rate (which rose under Trump) continued rising for Biden's first year before falling to a level below where it was at the end of Trump's term.

And when Illinois Governor J. B. Pritzker said "Donald told us to inject bleach" as a Covid treatment, that was "misleading", because Trump only made that ridiculous suggestion as something scientists should waste their time investigating.

Bill Clinton said that since the end of the Cold War, 50 million American jobs have been created under Democratic administrations and only 1 million under Republican administrations. PBS rated that only "mostly true", because even though what Clinton said was exactly right, 1989 was a particularly fortuitous time to measure from. Starting the clock running somewhere else might give less lop-sided results.

Summing up: While Republicans told big whopping lies that they can't justify their policies without, Democrats sometimes failed to include all the footnotes a journal article would require.

It seems like a conscientious fact-checker would want to note that distinction. But AP's headlines looked like this:


Good lines from the convention that I haven't found another place for. D. L. Hughley:

Republicans for Kamala? I guess Donald Trump will finally know what it's like when you get left for a younger woman.

Ted Lieu:

As a computer science major, I am so impressed by how large this AI-generated crowd looks tonight.

Hakeem Jeffries:

Donald Trump is like an old boyfriend who you broke up with, but he just won't go away. Bro, we broke up with you for a reason.

Pete Buttigieg:

JD Vance said 'if you don't have kids you have no physical commitment to the future of this country.' When I deployed to Afghanistan, I didn't have kids then. Many of the men and women with me didn't either. But let me tell you, our commitment to the future of this country was pretty damn physical.

Raphael Warnock:

We believe that a patient's room is too small and cramped for space for a woman, her doctor, and the United States government. That's too many people in the room.

and RFK Jr. endorsing Trump

Friday, Robert Kennedy Jr. announced that he was suspending his campaign and supporting Donald Trump.

No one should be surprised by this, because RFK Jr.'s campaign was a Trump operation from the start. The Kennedy name was supposed to divide the Democratic vote, which is why RFK Jr.'s campaign was funded by pro-Trump donors and pushed by pro-Trump media. But recent polls had begun to show Kennedy pulling more votes from Trump than from Harris, so it was time to pull the plug.

On paper, this looks to favor Trump, but it also ratifies Harris/Walz framing: Trump, Vance, and Kennedy are all weird, so of course they would wind up together.

I've seen lots of triumphal posting by Trumpists, claiming that this is a big development that nails down Trump's election. But Nate Silver is unconvinced. His model has Harris up 4% with her convention bounce just starting to show up in the data. Her margin drops about 0.3% when Kennedy is taken out.

and the horse race

I'm not going to pay much attention this week, because if Kamala gets a bounce out of the convention, it won't show up fully in the polls until at least next week. But generally, her slow and steady momentum has continued. 538's polling average has her up by 3.4%, which is close to where she needs to be to overcome the Republican advantage built into the Electoral College.

But there is reason to expect a convention bounce. Here, a CNN reporter is stunned that 6 of the 8 undecided voters he talked to in November have decided for Harris. One has decided for Trump and one still isn't planning to vote.

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Maybe "Communist" and "Marxist" don't mean what Trumpists think they mean.

and let's close with something cold-blooded

OK, I've heard of support dogs, cats, and even monkeys. But a support gator? I'm picturing a bumper sticker: My support animal can eat your support animal.

Saturday, August 24, 2024

Strong Leadership

Over the last several years there's been this kind of perversion that has taken place, which is to suggest that the measure of the strength of a leader is based on who you beat down, when what we know is the real and true measure of the strength of a leader is based on who you lift up.

- Kamala Harris

This week's featured post is "Harris, Trump, and Our Broken News Media".

This week everybody was talking about the Democratic Convention

The Democratic National Convention in Chicago has already started, if you count events that don't usually get much coverage, like the delegate breakfasts. Main programming begins at 4 this afternoon, central daylight time. This livestream link begins at 5:30.

Politico has a good article about the convention, including the various ways you can watch it. The major networks are only committed to an hour of coverage 10-11 each night, but CSPAN and various streaming options should cover everything.

Tonight's headliners are President Biden, who I expect to get a heartwarming reception from a party that appreciates what he has sacrificed for the greater good, and Hillary Clinton, who may finally see her dream of a female president realized this year. The Obamas will speak Tuesday. Wednesday's lineup includes Tim Walz, Nancy Pelosi, Bill Clinton, and Pete Buttigieg, while Thursday belongs to Vice President Harris. Jason Carter at some point will appear on behalf of his grandfather Jimmy Carter, who is hoping to hang on long enough to vote for Harris in the general election.

This convention will contrast with the Republican Convention in a number of ways that I think will work in the Democrats' favor. For one thing, the party is not running away from its past, and its nominee has the support of all its major stars. And while the RNC tended to be dour and dystopian, the DNC should be much lighter and joyful.

Also, the Democratic headliners are just better speakers. I expect that Walz on Wednesday and Harris on Thursday will each have a point and make it, in a speech that has a beginning, a middle, and an end. They should contrast well with Trump's 90-minute ramble at the RNC, and whatever it was that J. D. Vance was doing.


The wild card in the week is how intense and disruptive pro-Palestinian protests will be.

and Ukraine's invasion of Russia

On August 6, Ukraine flipped the script on Russia and sent its troops into Russian territory in the Kursk region, which is famous as the site of the largest tank battle in history. (The Russian victory over Germany at Stalingrad is considered the greatest single turning point in World War II, but Germany's defeat on the Eastern Front didn't become inevitable until after Kursk the next summer.)

It's hard to know what this all means. A substantial fog of war prevents accurate reporting, but it's clear that Russia was surprised and has not been able to repel Ukraine yet. The attack could turn out to be anything from a strategic masterstroke to a modern-day Gettysburg campaign that has early successes but ultimately hastens defeat.

In the meantime, it's a substantial political embarrassment to Putin, whose image of strength is taking damage.

and Gaza

The dying continues in Gaza, and the Palestinian death count has now passed 40,000. The Biden administration continues to push for a ceasefire/hostage release deal, but it's not clear that either side really wants peace.

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It's always hard to decide how much attention to pay to the latest Trump outrage. It's important not to become desensitized to them, but they've been going on for nine years and haven't ended his career yet.

This week he disrespected Medal of Honor winners, who are America's greatest war heroes.

Trump on Thursday, when talking about giving GOP donor Miriam Adelson the Medal of Freedom, the nation’s top civilian honor, said it is “actually, much better” than the Medal of Honor “because everyone (who) gets the congressional medal of honor, that’s soldiers. They’re either in very bad shape because they’ve been hit so many times by bullets, or they’re dead.”

Trump's former Chief of Staff, former General John Kelly, responded:

No president, member of Congress, judge or political appointee — and certainly no recipient of the Presidential Medal — will ever be asked to give life or limb to protect the Constitution. The two awards cannot be compared in any way. Not even close.

Trump's remarks would be bad enough in the context of a Medal of Freedom winner who saved many lives through peaceful means, like vaccine developer Jonas Salk, or who risked life and limb in a non-military context, like first man on the Moon Neil Armstrong. But it's obscene to say such a thing while giving the award to Miriam Adelson, who essentially bought the honor by (with her late husband) contributing hundreds of millions to Republican candidates, including Trump himself.


I discussed Trump's Mar-a-Lago press conference in detail in the featured post, and barely mentioned his interview with Elon Musk. CNN did a fact check, for what that's worth. But their discussion of climate change is worth paying attention to, because it so clueless. Bill McKibben dubbed this "the dumbest climate conversation of all time".

Trump said the same stupid thing he's said before, which is that rising sea levels aren't worth worrying about because you just wind up with "more seafront property". Not only is this wrongheaded, it's just plain dumb, as McKibben points out:

a rising ocean clearly reduces the amount of oceanfront property. If Florida goes underwater there will be a new stretch of seafront along what’s now the Georgia border—but the amount of oceanfront will be greatly reduced.

But most of the truly idiotic comments come from Musk, while Trump just sits there and seems to agree. Musk is pushing electric cars not because he worries about the climate, but because he worries about running out of oil. Also, he pictures increased CO2 in the atmosphere not causing any real problems until it gets around 1000 ppm (from it's current level of just over 400), because that would cause breathing problems.

McKibben comments:

There is not a serious climate scientist on planet earth who has ever contemplated a thousand parts per million with anything less than panic and horror. ... What Musk’s math implies, of course, is that we have endless time to deal with this crisis. If 1,000 is the danger level, and we’re going up two parts per million per year, that does indeed “give us quite a bit of time.” Three hundred years, roughly. ... This is the point of their conversation, at least when it comes to climate. It is to insist that nothing need be done now, that we should just go on expanding the fossil fuel industry.


Social media is trolling Musk: "Elon Musk, dead at 52, says there is no need for misinformation laws".


Sexism is sexism, even if it comes from a woman. I am appalled that the WaPo published a Kathleen Parker column including this:

Without her beauty, Harris might be joining Biden in retirement. All you have to do is imagine her spoken words coming from a less-attractive package. Or put her on radio.

Hillary wasn't attractive enough. Kamala is too attractive to take seriously. There's no winning.


Tim Walz hasn't forgotten how to speak to a football team. Decades ago, politicians of both parties made these kinds of speeches all the time to promote civic virtues in the rising generations. But it's been a long time since I've heard one.


The DeSantis takeover of New College in Sarasota hasn't resulted in book burnings, but a lot of gender diversity books that students might have wanted are winding up in the dumpster

and let's close with some resemblances

James Lucas posts a thread on X that celebrates pareidolia, "our brain's tendency to see familiar shapes in random patterns", like the Waterfall of the Bride in Peru.

Monday, August 5, 2024

Denial

No Sift next week. The next batch of new articles will post on August 19.

I didn’t know she was Black until a number of years ago, when she happened to turn Black, and now she wants to be known as Black. So I don’t know, is she Indian or is she Black?

- Donald Trump

When prejudice cannot deny the black man’s ability, it denies his race.

- Frederick Douglass

This week's featured posts are "Where Did Inflation Come From?" and "The Unfathomable Mystery of Biracial Americans".

This week everybody was talking about getting prisoners out of Russia

Thursday, President Biden announced a multi-country swap of prisoners that brought home three Americans: WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich, Paul Whelan, and Radio Free Europe journalist Alsu Kurmasheva. Whelan had been held the longest, since 2018.

The swap relied heavily on US allies. Germany, Slovenia, Estonia, Poland, Norway, and the Maldive Islands released prisoners Russia wanted back. In his announcement, Biden underlined the importance of having allies, a backhanded slap at Trump's anti-NATO sentiments.


If Trumpers wonder why calling him "weird" is catching on, they should look at his first reaction to the prisoner swap, which he had said could not happen until he was reelected (apparently because he's Putin's pet).

So when are they going to release the details of the prisoner swap with Russia? How many people do we get versus them? Are we also paying them cash?

At some point, questioning the details of the swap is legitimate. But surely the first reaction of any non-weird American was to be happy for fellow Americans who are free now, and for the families who can welcome them home. Trump expressed none of this, but (without knowing any of the details) simply assumed the deal must be bad because it worked against his political interests. He doubled down during his Atlanta rally Saturday.

I would like to congratulate Vladimir Putin for having made yet another great deal.

Didn't every American other than Trump feel at least a little joy in their hearts for their freed countrymen? That's the kind of thing that makes him weird.


Of course there's speculation about what this means politically in the US. Back in May, Trump posted that he would get Evan Gershkovich released "almost immediately after the election", and that Putin "will do that for me, but not for anyone else". Some people at the time interpreted this as Putin's ransom demand: If you want to get Gershkovich back, elect Trump.

But after this week's deal was announced, Slate's Fred Kaplan speculated:

[L]ike most world leaders, Putin has no doubt been reading the polls, and he may have concluded that Trump is not going to win ... Therefore, Putin might have reasoned, it’s better to take a deal now so it looks as if he’s acting without an eye to our election.

However, I wonder if there's another angle: Maybe our allies were willing to sacrifice more for Biden, in order to make it less likely Trump will ever be restored to power.

and Trump's interview with Black journalists

That's the topic of one featured post. A few related things didn't make it into that article.


John McWhorter's analysis of why Trump mispronounces "Kamala" is interesting. He relates it to previous generations of American mainlanders calling the 50th state “Ha-WHY-a” and its capital "Honolula", or misnaming foreign foods "raviola" and "guacamala".

The Trumpian attitude toward Harris’s Indian name reanimates an old American trope. Instead of opening up to a foreign word and even exploring it a little, Trump is treating it as an alien presence in need of assimilation, telling it to conform to whatever he decides it should be.

This willfully blasĂ© attitude toward the word’s pronunciation has the effect of othering it, and Harris by extension. A name with no set pronunciation is alien, exotic, unplaceable — and therefore not who we are. It’s a subtle dig that aims in the same direction as Trump’s false rumor that Barack Obama wasn’t American.


A subtle detail in a scene from the recent movie American Fiction sums up something important about race in America. The main character, Thelonius "Monk" Ellison, is a Black author who doesn't want to be defined by his blackness. (He wants to write literature, not Black literature.)

Early in the movie, he is coming out of an airport while talking on the phone to his agent about his unwillingness to write the stereotypic "Black novel" the market wants from him. "You know," he says, "I don't even believe in race."

"Unfortunately," his agent replies, "other people do." And as he says that, a cab drives past Monk to pick up a White man.

A question White conservatives ask constantly is "Why do Blacks (or Democrats or liberals) make everything about race?" That scene is the answer: Black people may try to forget about race, but the world will remind them.

and the rising Iran/Israel friction

I don't claim to understand this, so I'll point you to The Economist's article.

and Venezuela

Venezuela's President NicolĂ¡s Maduro allowed an election, appeared to lose it, and has announced victory. Now he's cracking down on protesters and opposition politicians.

and J. D. Vance continues to embarrass Republicans

Outrageous things Vance has said continue to surface. In a 2021 interview on the Dear Ohio podcast of Spectrum News 1, while he was running in the Ohio Republican primary for the Senate seat he now holds, Vance was asked "Should a woman be forced to carry a child to term, after she has been a victim of incest or rape?" He replied:

I think the question betrays a certain presumption that's wrong. It’s not whether a woman should be forced to bring a child to term, it’s whether a child should be allowed to live, even though the circumstances of that child’s birth are somehow inconvenient or a problem to the society. The question really, to me, is about the baby.

In other words, a woman should be forced to carry her rapist's baby, but that's an inconvenience. It's not the important thing about the situation. Also, this requirement makes rape a viable reproductive strategy for men, but that's not important either.

I noticed something in that interview that I haven't seen mentioned elsewhere: Vance repeatedly uses the word normal in a way that I find creepy. The first question is why he wanted to run for the Senate, and Vance says

I think normal people in this country, people who want to live a good life, who just want to raise their families, they deserve somebody who fights for them.

Normal comes up several times throughout the interview, and it always refers to people like Vance himself. I find myself wondering what percentage of the country Vance considers normal.

Another clip that has resurfaced was his opinion of Simone Biles after she withdrew from the 2020 Olympics for mental health reasons.

What I find so weird about this, and it reflects on the media more than it does on Simone Biles, is that we’ve tried to turn a very tragic moment — Simone Biles quitting the Olympic team — into this act of heroism. And I think it reflects pretty poorly on our sort of therapeutic society that we try to praise people not for moments of strength, not for moments of heroism, but for their weakest moments


Peter Thiel is the tech billionaire who made Vance. The WaPo summarizes their relationship:

Thiel made him wealthy, setting him up to invest in companies that became popular with the MAGA set. He shepherded Vance’s entry into politics, bankrolling, alongside other Silicon Valley donors, his successful bid for the U.S. Senate in 2022.

An amazing clip is circulating on social media, in which Thiel compares present-day America to pre-Nazi Germany, but without any sense of alarm about it.

Liberalism is exhausted. One suspects that democracy, whatever that means, is exhausted. And we have to ask some questions very far outside the Overton Window.

Before passing that on, I felt obligated to search for the context. I found it here: an hour-and-a-half dialog with Tyler Cohen, who I don't recognize. I haven't looked at the whole thing, but the immediate context of the quote is a little better than it sounds. They're discussing the German philosopher Carl Schmitt (who I also don't recognize). He accurately predicted the fall of democracy in Germany, but "things went very haywire" (according the Thiel) when he got "somewhat entangled with the Nazis". Thiel describes that entanglement as "bad judgment".

So Thiel's not openly espousing fascism in that quote, but I still can't be comfortable electing the protege of someone who suspects democracy is exhausted. And my overall feeling is: God save us from billionaires who want to raise questions "very far outside the Overton Window".

and the horse race

Who you think is ahead right now depends on which polling average you trust. They are all close, and they all show Harris gaining. RCP has Trump ahead 0.8% in a two-way race, down from 1.9% last week. In a five-way race (including RFK Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornell West), Harris is ahead by 0.2%. Nate Silver's average has Harris up 1.4%; Trump was ahead by 0.4% a week ago. I could go on, but you get the idea.

Like everybody else, I'm wondering who Harris will pick as VP. But I don't see much point in writing about it, because I'm sure the decision is already made and we'll find out soon enough.


One striking thing about Donald Trump is that so many of the Trump administration veterans who know him best oppose his candidacy: Mike Pence, John Kelly, Jim Mattis, and many others.

The same observation extends to his family. His niece Mary has long been a critic, and recently her brother Fred has told negative stories about Donald in a book. Here, Mary defends Fred against an attack by their cousin Eric.

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Being accused of being weird has gotten under MAGA skins in a way that fascist and racist never did. And yet they keep acting weird.

Normal Americans find inspiration in the Olympics, and cheer for the great athletes who represent us: Simone Biles, Katy Ledecky, LeBron James, and many others. But Trumpers have a weirder reason to pay attention to the Olympics: They need something to get outraged about.

Look at what has gone viral in MAGA-Land: Anger at female Algerian boxer Imane Khelif, who defeated her Italian opponent in 46 seconds. Khelif was identified as female at birth and has never professed to be anything else, but she was disqualified from the 2023 world championships after the amount of testosterone in her blood exceeded some limit. The Olympics has different standards, which she fulfilled. She does not physically stand out from other women boxers, and is not the favorite to win the gold medal in her weight category.

But to Trump and his minions, Khelif is "trans". Trump posted a video of Khelif's bout with the comment:

I WILL KEEP MEN OUT OF WOMEN’S SPORTS!

In his Atlanta rally Saturday night (where the crowd was noticeably smaller and less energetic than the one Harris drew to the same arena a few days before), he lied outright about Khelif.

It was a person that transitioned. He was a good male boxer.

If having more testosterone than the average woman makes you a man, then all those low-T men -- you must have seen the TV commercials for supplements -- are actually women.


More weirdness is the way that Trump cheers any bad news for America. Today, he's glorying in the stock market plunge -- even though the market is still much higher than when he left office. At the end of the day, check the value of your 401(k), and reflect on how happy Donald Trump is about your loss.


For reasons that defy explanation, Trump has been going after Georgia's popular Republican Governor Brian Kemp, both on Truth Social and during his Atlanta rally Saturday night. But here's the line that really slays me:

He should be seeking UNITY, not Retribution

Look back at my article on his convention speech, which was billed as a "unity" speech. The only unity Trump recognizes is submission to him.


It's too soon to tell yet how big a deal the Trump/Egypt bribe story will be.

and let's close with something tasty

I promise not to mix politics and the closing very often, but here's something I want to pass on. In one of the featured posts, I linked to a video from Kamala Harris' 2020 primary campaign where she made masala dosa with actress Mindy Kaling, who is also Indian-American.

It turns out that was a regular thing in her campaign, and not restricted to Indian people or Indian food: She'd go meet with supporters and cook something. "Cooking With Kamala" is a 7-video series on her YouTube channel. In this one, she visits the chair of her Iowa campaign and teaches her how to make apples with bacon. Kamala attributes the recipe to her mother, who must have picked it up after she came to America. (In the Mindy video, she says her grandmother was a strict vegetarian.)