Monday, March 28, 2022

Limitations of Experience

No Sift next week. The next new articles will appear on April 11

He characteristically would tell us things that we knew but would rather forget; and he told us much that we did not know due to the limitations of our own experience.

- Supreme Court Justice Byron White
"A Tribute to Justice Thurgood Marshall"

This week's featured post is "Where Does the Religious Right Go After Roe?"

"How did Christianity become so toxic?", from two weeks ago, was one of the rare posts to have a bigger second week than its first. It has now gotten over 17,000 page hits, and is still running. That puts it in 13th place on the Sift's all-time hit list, mostly behind posts from the era when Facebook algorithms let links go viral more easily.

This week everybody was talking about Judge Jackson

https://theweek.com/political-satire/1011725/the-protector-of-criminals

The televised interviews with the Judiciary Committee are over now. The committee vote on Ketanji Brown Jackson's nomination is planned for April 4, and she seems likely to pass on a party-line vote.

The full Senate will vote sometime after that. She can be approved with only Democratic votes. So far, no senator of either party has announced a decision to break ranks. Senator Manchin recently came out in support, which probably means she's in, though Senator Sinema still hasn't committed herself.


Charles Blow pointed out how far the Senate has gotten from its constitutional duties. The point of the confirmation hearings on Judge Jackson's nomination has never been to examine her qualifications or judicial philosophy. The point, rather, is to "put on a show".


Lindsey Graham and various other Republican senators used the hearings to air their issues with Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearings. But from my point of view, comparing those hearings makes a very different point: If you've ever wondered what white male privilege consists of, the contrast between the two hearings makes it obvious.

Judge Jackson had to be responsive, civil, and under control at all times, while Republican senators frequently interrupted her or talked over her. Kavanaugh, on the other hand, was free to go on a partisan rant, push a conspiracy theory, cry and express anger, lie and misdirect, and throw hostile questions back at his questioners. A Black woman could never get away with that kind of behavior.


The Republican senators at the hearing knew they were using smear tactics. Ted Cruz, for example, tied Jackson to books that are used at a private school where Jackson serves on the board (as if she had personally selected those books). He then misrepresented the books.


GOP senators repeatedly referenced Wesley Hawkins, an 18-year-old who Judge Jackson sentenced to three months prison, three months home detention, and six years of supervision because he possessed child pornography. He's now 27 and has not been charged with anything since. The WaPo detailed his case and talked to him.


One popular falsehood I've heard during the hearings is that conservatives believe in judicial restraint while liberals want to expand judicial power. WaPo's Henry Olsen put it like this:

Democrats favor the court expanding its jurisdiction into political matters; Republicans favor a restrictive view, generally deferring to democratically elected bodies at all levels of government rather than making the court the final arbiter of public policy. This is one of the most important political issues of our time.

If that was ever true, which I doubt, it certainly is not true now.

One case this week demonstrated how conservative justices are reaching for power: Three conservative justices -- Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch -- tried to insert judges into the Navy's chain of command, undercutting President Biden's role as commander-in-chief.

Another right-wing judicial power grab is the push for "nondelegation", a theory under which Congress cannot delegate regulatory power to agencies of the executive branch like the EPA or the SEC. In practice, this makes the Supreme Court the ultimate regulator, as it decides which regulations are or aren't sufficiently specified by Congress' authorizing legislation.

And finally, we can't ignore the two places where conservative justices regularly invent new rights: for corporations and for right-wing Christians. Corporations are not mentioned in the Constitution, and yet conservatives are constantly defending their right to influence elections or to act on their religious convictions as "corporate persons". And right-wing Christians (but not other religious groups) are held to be largely exempt from laws they don't like.

and Ginni Thomas

https://theweek.com/political-satire/1011842/ginnis-banner

People who pay attention have known for years that Ginni and Clarence Thomas were a scandal waiting to happen: Ginni is a right-wing political organizer, and she runs a profit-making lobbying firm. Her husband Clarence is a Supreme Court justice who rules on cases that sometimes overlap with Ginni's interests. That's been going on for years. The New Yorker detailed the ethical problems the Thomases raise back in January. The NYT Magazine followed in February.

What's new this week are text messages she exchanged with Trump's Chief of Staff Mark Meadows during the period between the election and the January 6 riot.

The messages — 29 in all — reveal an extraordinary pipeline between Virginia Thomas, who goes by Ginni, and President Donald Trump’s top aide during a period when Trump and his allies were vowing to go to the Supreme Court in an effort to negate the election results.

Ginni encourages Meadows (and Trump) to "stand firm" against "the greatest Heist of our History". She gives strategic legal advice on a case that her husband might have needed to rule on.

Among Thomas’s stated goals in the messages was for lawyer Sidney Powell, who promoted incendiary and unsupported claims about the election, to be “the lead and the face” of Trump’s legal team.

She repeatedly embraced the most bizarre and baseless conspiracy theories about the election.

Ginni has admitted attending the January 6 rally, but claims to have left early, before the assault on the Capitol.

Clarence was the lone dissent in an 8-1 decision not to hear Trump's objections to the National Archives delivering documents to the January 6 Committee. The Ginni/Meadows texts were not part of that trove, but his wife's involvement certainly creates a strong appearance of impropriety.

and Ukraine

This week Ukraine has been pushing back Russian troops threatening Kyiv, while Russian forces continue to make slow progress in the eastern part of the country.

Russia is now claiming that everything has gone according to plan.

“The main objectives of the first stage of the operation have generally been accomplished,” Sergei Rudskoi, head of the Russian General Staff’s Main Operational Directorate, said in a speech Friday. “The combat potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been considerably reduced, which ... makes it possible to focus our core efforts on achieving the main goal, the liberation of Donbas.”

Of course, the combat potential of the Russian forces has also been reduced, which probably wasn't part of the plan. Maybe this announcement means that Russia has scaled down its ambitions and no longer intends to conquer the entire country. Or maybe the speech is just noise. It's always hard to tell.


Karolina Wigura and Jaroslaw Kuisz write in the NYT about the divide within NATO. Everybody supports Ukraine against Russia, but the former Warsaw Pact countries in the East frame the issue differently than NATO's original members in the West, including the United States.

For Western countries, not least the United States, the conflict is a disaster for the people of Ukraine — but one whose biggest danger is that it might spill over the Ukrainian border, setting off a global conflict.

For Central and Eastern European countries, it’s rather different. These neighbors of Russia tend to see the war not as a singular event but as a process. To these post-Soviet states, the invasion of Ukraine appears as a next step in a whole series of Russia’s nightmarish assaults on other countries, dating back to the ruthless attacks on Chechnya and the war with Georgia. To them, it seems foolhardy to assume Mr. Putin will stop at Ukraine. The danger is pressing and immediate.

While the West believes it must prevent World War III, the East thinks that, whatever the name given to the conflict, the war against liberal democratic values, institutions and lifestyles has already started. ...

NATO’s cautious steps look to many Central and Eastern Europeans like an echo of the phony war of 1939, when France and Britain undertook only limited military actions and did not save their eastern ally, Poland.

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas summed up the Eastern view:

At NATO, our focus should be simple: Mr. Putin cannot win this war. He cannot even think he has won, or his appetite will grow.


Elliot Ackerman is a former Marine and intelligence officer writing for The Atlantic. He had an enlightening conversation with a former Marine now fighting for Ukraine about the way weapons like the Javelin missile have changed the tactics of warfare.

When Ackerman was in Fallujah in 2004, Abrams tanks were key in the infantry's advance into the city -- a role the tank has played since it was invented in World War I to lead soldiers over enemy trenches.

On several occasions, I watched our tanks take direct hits from rocket-propelled grenades (typically older-generation RPG-7s) without so much as a stutter in their forward progress. Today, a Ukrainian defending Kyiv or any other city, armed with a Javelin or an NLAW, would destroy a similarly capable tank.

If the costly main battle tank is the archetypal platform of an army (as is the case for Russia and NATO), then the archetypal platform of a navy (particularly America’s Navy) is the ultra-costly capital ship, such as an aircraft carrier. Just as modern anti-tank weapons have turned the tide for the outnumbered Ukrainian army, the latest generation of anti-ship missiles (both shore- and sea-based) could in the future—say, in a place like the South China Sea or the Strait of Hormuz—turn the tide for a seemingly outmatched navy. Since February 24, the Ukrainian military has convincingly displayed the superiority of an anti-platform-centric method of warfare.

They also discussed the difference in philosophy between the Russian and the more NATO-style Ukrainian command structures.

Russian doctrine relies on centralized command and control, while mission-style command and control—as the name suggests—relies on the individual initiative of every soldier, from the private to the general, not only to understand the mission but then to use their initiative to adapt to the exigencies of a chaotic and ever-changing battlefield in order to accomplish that mission.

The Russian system breaks down when soldiers wind up in situations that make it impossible to carry out their specific orders. (As orders to go to a particular place break down when the roads are jammed with traffic.) They can't improvise effectively, because they don't know what the larger mission is.


Wednesday, the NYT and CNN published articles about US contingency planning for scenarios where Russia escalates to nuclear, chemical, or biological warfare. It's very hard to tell how seriously to take this possibility.

Dictators have a long history of playing chicken with democracies, figuring that a leader not accountable to public opinion has more room to take risks, so he will be able to get elected leaders to back down. This is basically the story of Hitler and the West prior to his attack on France in 1940.


He is the very model of a Russian major general.

and the pandemic

Last week I wondered if we were in the eye of the storm. This week the trend definitely seems to have turned: After two months of steep drops in the number of new Covid cases, the curves look like they're turning upward again.

Last week, new cases per day were running just under 30K, this week they're just over. If you use a two-week window, that's still a 12% decline. But the national flattening out over the last week hides the fact that cases have turned upward in the parts of the country that usually lead the statistics (New York City, for example), but are still falling in parts that lag.

This is personal to me. My wife takes a cancer-survivor drug that can have immune-suppressing side effects, so we've been especially cautious during the pandemic. And though I've started to enjoy cooking during the pandemic, I still miss the days when we ate out often. (Take-out is not the same.) A few weeks ago we made a judgment: If new-cases-per-100K in our Boston-suburb county got into single digits, we could eat indoors at restaurants if we avoided the times when they're crowded.

We didn't get there. Our county's number bottomed out at 11 sometime last week, and is now back up to 16. This morning it's snowing again, and outdoor dining seems far away.

and anti-LGBTQ oppression

https://theweek.com/political-satire/1011769/get-in-the-closet

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has sent the Austin Independent School District a letter informing them of his opinion that their Pride Week is illegal.

By hosting "Pride Week", your district has, at best, undertaken a week-long instructional effort in human sexuality without parental consent. Or, worse, your district is cynically pushing a week-long indoctrination of your students that not only fails to obtain parental consent, but subtly cuts parents out of the loop.

AISD says the focus of its Pride Week is "creating a safe, supportive and inclusive environment", not teaching about human sexuality. Apparently, Paxton can't see the difference between teaching students to accept one another and teaching them how to perform sexual acts.

The district shows no signs of giving in; the superintendent tweeted back:

I want all our LGBTQIA+ students to know that we are proud of them and that we will protect them against political attacks

Paxton, you may recall, also opines that gender-affirming therapy is child abuse, and was investigating nine Texas families with trans children until a state court made him stop.

After he's done persecuting children and their families, I have to wonder how much time he has left to do his job as the state's chief law enforcement officer.


If you want to know where right-wing rhetoric about schools "grooming" children for pedophiles is headed, look at Mississippi's former legislator and gubernatorial candidate Robert Foster, who tweeted:

Some of y’all still want to try and find political compromise with those that want to groom our school aged children and pretend men are women, etc. I think they need to be lined up against wall before a firing squad to be sent to an early judgment.

When Mississippi Free Press requested an interview to discuss this, Foster messaged back:

I said what I said. The law should be changed so that anyone trying to sexually groom children and/or advocating to put men pretending to be women in locker rooms and bathrooms with young women should receive the death penalty by firing squad.

So if you're advocating for trans people to choose their own bathrooms, or trans women to be allowed to compete in women's sports, you should be shot. Or let me boil that down further: I should be shot. Maybe you should be shot too.

It's hard to come up with the right response to stuff like this, because real pedophiles do exist, just not with anything like the numbers or the organizational power of Foster's fantasies. In the same way, there were a handful of real Soviet spies during the Red Scare, and probably some tiny percentage of the six million Jews Hitler killed were up to no good.

To be fair, this guy is nobody. He didn't get nominated for governor, and there are a lot of crazy former state legislators out there. But Florida Governor DeSantis' spokesperson has also described opponents of the Don't Say Gay bill (that's me again) as "groomers".

If you’re against the Anti-Grooming Bill, you are probably a groomer or at least you don’t denounce the grooming of 4-8 year old children. Silence is complicity. This is how it works, Democrats, and I didn’t make the rules.

Foster is just pointing out where that kind of thinking leads.


The WaPo calls attention to books quietly vanishing from school library shelves. Administrators are ignoring the defined processes for dealing with complaints and just pulling books without any process, often over the objections (or without the knowledge) of librarians.

And after the school libraries are purged, they'll come for the public libraries. Llano County, Texas just fired a librarian for refusing to remove books. KXAN quotes a library patron as saying "There are very clear rules that should be followed with regards to censorship to books in the public library, those rules were not followed."

and you also might be interested in ...

If you missed the Oscars, CODA won as best picture. Here's a list of all the other winners.


One reason more and more Republicans feel they need to move on from Donald Trump is that he is stuck in the past; he's still fixated on his crushing defeat in the 2020 election, which he lost by 7 million votes.

Well, this week he moved on from 2020, but in the wrong direction: to 2016. He's filed a lawsuit in a Florida federal court against, as TPM puts it, "Everyone Who Ever Offended Him Over 2016 Election".

At the core of Trump’s claim is the idea that Clinton ordered others to spread lies about him regarding Russia and the 2016 election. With Clinton at its head, the argument goes, a vast conspiracy to deprive Trump kicked into action, featuring people and entities that have populated Trump’s rhetoric since before he won in 2016 and, subsequently, right-wing media.

They include Fusion GPS, the opposition research firm that the lawsuit accuses of creating “false and/or misleading dossiers” to damage Trump’s chances in the election.

Jim Comey, the former FBI director, makes the cut to be a defendant, as do FBI officials Peter Strzok and Lisa Page. The DNC and its 2016 chief, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, also show up as defendants.

WaPo's Phillip Bump points out the most ridiculous aspect of the suit: In order to "prove" that Clinton masterminded a conspiracy to manufacture a Trump/Russia "hoax", the suit quotes from DNC emails illegally hacked by Russia to benefit the Trump campaign.

Whenever Trump's 2016 conspiracy theory comes up, I feel obligated to repeat the established facts:

  • Russia did help Trump get elected in 2016.
  • That Russian effort included crimes, such as hacking computers at the DNC, and distributing illegally obtained emails through WikiLeaks during the fall campaign.
  • Trump knew Russia was helping him, to the point of saying in public "Russia, if you're listening ...".
  • The Trump campaign had two major interfaces with the Russian effort: campaign manager Paul Manafort, who had been paid millions of dollars by Russian oligarch Oleg Derapaska, and long-time Trump ally Roger Stone, who was the campaign's link to WikiLeaks. Neither man cooperated with the Mueller investigation, and Trump rewarded both of them with pardons.

In view of all that, and the likelihood that Trump would have to answer questions under oath if the suit made it to trial, probably the point is to scam more money out of his followers.


Oh, and they're still trying to make a thing out of Hunter Biden's laptop.


Belarus has granted asylum to a man charged in the January 6 insurrection. Putin's allies consider people who rioted to keep Trump in power after he lost the election to be political prisoners.


In case you were still doubting that Mike Flynn is insane, he buys into the Bill-Gates-wants-to-microchip-you theory. The following picture is not authentic.

https://starecat.com/bill-gates-youre-not-worth-microchipping-change-my-mind/

Vanity Fair has the sordid story of how the conservative Project Veritas obtained Ashley Biden's diary.


If you ever watched the TV series Heroes, and if you had witnessed the scuffle involving actress Hayden Panettiere Thursday, could you have resisted calling out "Save the cheerleader!"?

and let's close with some literal interpretation

This Dad assigned his kids the task of writing instructions for making peanut butter and jelly sandwiches. He then followed their instructions as literally as possible, with amusing results.

While I think this exercise taught the kids a valuable lesson, I predict Dad will soon regret having done it, as the kids will start following his instructions literally as well. "You told me to go to school. You didn't tell me to go inside the school."

Monday, March 21, 2022

Whose House?

It's not Russian airspace. It's Ukrainian airspace.

- former NATO commander Wesley Clark
commenting on a no-fly zone over Ukraine

This week's featured post is "About Those Gas Prices". Last week's "How did Christianity become so toxic?" is the most popular Sift post since last October's "Reading While Texan".

This week everybody was talking about Ukraine

From the NYT: Russian forces advance slowly in the East and South, but are stalled in the North.

This week, the conventional wisdom began entertaining a question that seemed absurd a few weeks ago: Could Russia actually lose this war?

Early on, everyone took for granted that Russia's military superiority over Ukraine meant that of course they would eventually overrun the entire country, just as the US had overrun Iraq. The question then would shift (as it did in Iraq) to whether Russian occupation forces could pacify the country well enough to install a friendly government and keep it in power for the long term.

And they still might get to that point; maybe that's still the most likely scenario. But the resilience of Ukrainian resistance, Russian military incompetence, and the unity NATO's determination to keep Ukrainian fighters well supplied, have combined to raise the question: What if Russia can't overrun Ukraine? How long can Russia sustain these kinds of losses before their army's best option is to turn around and go home? And facing that situation, would Putin lash out in some desperate way with chemical or nuclear weapons?

The WaPo summarizes:

in the absence of substantive progress on the ground and given the scale of the losses being inflicted on its ranks, Russia’s military campaign could soon become unsustainable, with troops unable to advance because they lack sufficient manpower, supplies and munitions, analysts and officials say.


President Zelensky gave a virtual speech to the U.S. Congress on Wednesday. Zelensky had a narrow path to walk: He wanted to express gratitude for the help the US and NATO have given his country, but he also wanted to challenge us: "I call on you to do more."

He asked for some very specific things:

  • air defense. He'd like NATO to defend Ukrainian airspace directly by declaring a no-fly zone. But he seemed to realize he won't get that commitment. "If this is too much to ask, we offer an alternative. You know what kind of defense systems we need, S-300 and other similar systems." S-300s are Soviet-era air-defense missiles that three NATO countries (Bulgaria, Greece, and Slovakia) field. Slovakia has offered to provide S-300s to Ukraine if other NATO allies would replace them with some equivalent system. Russia has said it "will not allow" such a transfer, whatever that means. Presumably Zelensky specified S-300s because Ukrainians already know how to operate them.
  • broader sanctions. "We propose that the United States sanctions all politicians in the Russian Federation who remain in their offices and do not cut ties with those who are responsible for the aggression against Ukraine, from State Duma’s members to the last official who has lack of morale to break this state terror. All Americans’ company must leave Russia from their market, leave their market immediately because it is flooded with our blood. All American ports should be closed for Russian goods."
https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/a-stark-contrast-in-leadership/

After Zelensky's speech, President Biden announced an additional $1 billion of military aid.

800 Stinger anti-aircraft systems, 100 drones, "over 20 million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenade launcher and mortar rounds," 25,000 sets of body armor, 25,000 helmets, 100 grenade launchers, 5,000 rifles, 1,000 pistols, 400 machine guns, 400 shotguns, as well as "2,000 Javelin, 1,000 light anti-armor weapons, and 6,000 AT-4 anti-armor systems."

The US will specifically provide Switchblade drones to Ukraine, two sources familiar with the matter told CNN. The small, portable, so-called kamikaze drones carry warheads and detonate on impact. The smallest model can hit a target up to 6 miles away


Arnold the former Governator has a powerful message for the Russian people and Russian soldiers in Ukraine. Apparently a lot of people are hearing it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-t4-AoXSl1A

Netflix has brought back Zelensky's comedy TV series "Servant of the People". You can also watch it on YouTube.


Varia Bartsova laments the Russia she grew up in, now that Soviet-style repression and Iron-Curtain-like isolation have returned.


Vladimir Putin gave his own speech Wednesday, a quite scary one that seemed to threaten a Stalin-style purge.

The Russian people will always be able to distinguish true patriots from scum and traitors and simply spit them out like a fly that accidentally flew into their mouths. I am convinced that such a natural and necessary self-purification of society will only strengthen our country, our solidarity, cohesion and readiness to respond to any challenges.

A report from the Institute for the Study of War indicates that a purge may already be going on within the military and intelligence services. Some officials are being fired, while others are being arrested.

Putin reportedly fired several generals and arrested Federal Security Service (FSB) intelligence officers in an internal purge. Ukrainian Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov stated on March 9 that the Kremlin has replaced eight generals due to their failures in Ukraine, though ISW cannot independently verify this information.[21] Putin additionally detained several personnel from the FSB’s 5th Service, which is responsible for informing Putin about the political situation in Ukraine. The Federal Protective Service and 9th Directorate of the FSB (its internal security department) reportedly raided the 5th Service and over 20 other locations on March 11. Several media outlets reported that 5th Service Head Sergey Beseda and his deputy Anatoly Bolyukh are under house arrest on March 11.[22] Independent Russian media outlet Meduza claimed the 5th Service might have provided Putin with false information about the political situation in Ukraine ahead of his invasion out of fear of contradicting Putin‘s desired prognosis that a war in Ukraine would be a smooth undertaking.[23] Putin is likely carrying out an internal purge of general officers and intelligence personnel. He may be doing so either to save face after failing to consider their assessments in his own pre-invasion decision-making or in retaliation for faulty intelligence he may believe they provided him.


Everyone is focused on the war's effect on the world's energy production. (See the featured post.) But a more serious problem might be the effect on food production: Not only are Ukraine (where the next crop is not getting planted) and Russia (whose exports are sanctioned) top grain-exporters, but Russia and Belarus are important suppliers of potash, one of the key ingredients in fertilizer. Crop yields far from the battle zone may be affected.

And like the oil price rise, the expected rise in food prices will come at a time when prices are already high. This will be an annoyance to most Americans, and we may fight political battles over whether to offer some special food subsidy to the poor. But the world's less well off countries could face real shortages.

There have been a lot of dark jokes about the apocalypse these last two years, as the world has faced Pestilence, Death, and now War. But soon the fourth horseman, Famine, may make an appearance.

and the pandemic

I feel like we're in the eye of a storm. Here in the US, case numbers have been falling almost everywhere since January. We now average fewer than 30K new cases per day, a level not seen since July. Deaths are still over 1100 per day, but that also is lower than we've seen since a very brief period around Thanksgiving, and before that you have to go back to August.

So: great news. But there are also ominous signs: A new subvariant is out there (BA.2 where Omicron was BA.1). Europe, which experienced the original Omicron surge before we did, is currently having a BA.2 surge. And wastewater testing, the earliest warning signal of a new outbreak, is finding more Covid in many parts of the US.

It's also hard to know how much trust to put in the case-number statistics these days. A lot of the less serious cases might never appear in the stats. (People I know personally have tested positive at home and dealt with their symptoms without telling the medical establishment.) It's tempting to shrug off those easily managed cases. But the virus is the virus; you may or may not do as well as the person who infected you.

Hospitalizations and deaths are more reliable numbers, but they lag in time.

So deciding what risks to take is tricky right now. Maybe you should seize this chance to go to a concert or take a trip. Or maybe the new surge has already started, but we won't notice it for a week or two.


Both Pfizer and Moderna have asked the FDA to approve a fourth vaccination shot. My advice: Trust your doctor on this. If the FDA approves it and your doctor recommends it, get it.

and the culture wars

Kim Davis is back in the news. She was the county clerk in Kentucky who in 2015 refused to process wedding licenses for same-sex couples who were legally entitled to them. She eventually got voted out, but two couples that she refused to serve are suing her. Friday, a judge ruled that as a matter of law, she did violate their civil rights. Now a jury has to decide what damages to award.

Davis is offering the usual defense: Because her bigotry arises from her "Christian" beliefs, discrimination laws don't apply to her. I find it impossible to imagine this argument being taken seriously if you substitute a different faith. What if a county health commissioner refused to approve new steakhouses because of his sincerely held Hindu beliefs?

Davis' lawyers say the case "has a high potential of reaching the Supreme Court". Given the current Court's record of inventing special rights for Christians, she may win.


Paul Waldman explains why the Republican plan to double down on unpopular culture war positions can make short-term political sense.

[T]o engineer a political backlash, you don’t actually need to win converts to your cause. Often, all you need is to persuade the people who haven’t changed their minds as the world changes around them to get more upset.

Which is what we’re seeing right now. Particularly at the state level, Republicans have successfully convinced their base that their entire way of life is under dire threat from a trans girl who wants to play on her middle school softball team or from the books that are sitting in school libraries.


Speaking of which: When USA Today included HHS Assistant Secretary Rachel Levine in their Women of the Year list, conservatives couldn't take that lying down, because she's trans. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton tweeted "Rachel Levine is a man", and National Review wrote a whole article to protest the choice. NR quoted Levine's message to people questioning their gender identity:

I think you have to be true to yourself and I think that you have to be who you are. You have tremendous worth just for who you are, no matter who you love, no matter who you are, no matter what your gender identity, sexual orientation or anything else, and to be, be true to that. And then everything else will follow.

and commented "This is terrible advice." Don't be who you are; be who we say you are.


In an article focused on trans athletes in women's sports, The New Yorker commented:

There was something absurd in the spectacle of conservative politicians who have never shown any interest in supporting women’s sports, which are chronically underfunded and underexposed, moralizing about the sanctity of collegiate women’s swimming.


I'm relieved to learn that no NFL team I root for won the bidding war for quarterback Deshaun Watson, who faces 22 civil lawsuits for sexual assault and other forms of sexual misconduct, but will not be criminally charged. Watson denies everything, which at some point starts to make it even worse: When you've got 22 accusers, it's not a he-said/she-said any more. Denial doesn't make you sound innocent, just unrepentant.

The Cleveland Browns gave up three first-round draft picks to get Watson from the Texans, and then signed him to a five-year contract for $230 million that sets an NFL record for the most guaranteed money. The contract is structured so that he'll lose the minimum amount possible when the NFL gets around to suspending him for the start of next season. Given the way the NFL works, Cleveland has mortgaged the franchise for Watson; if he doesn't work out, they can't draft his replacement and they'll have no money available to offer a free agent.

Just about any NFL team occasionally puts somebody on the field who is hard to root for, and like most football fans, I've adjusted by not thinking about it too hard. But I wouldn't be able to stretch this far. Quarterbacks are so central in the NFL that rooting for the Browns next season means rooting for Watson. I couldn't do it.

Yahoo sports columnist Shalise Manza Young makes the comparison to Colin Kaepernick: Kneeling during the national anthem to protest racism got him (unofficially) banned for life. Watson will probably be suspended for a few games, and then will be the public face of the NFL in Cleveland.

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When Texas was passing its latest voter-suppression law, critics said its main effect would be to screw up people trying to vote legally. And guess what? That's exactly what has happened.

As Texans’ ballots were cast and tallied across the Lone Star State last week, Monica Emery received multiple letters from county election officials saying that her attempt to vote by mail had failed.

The problem, she learned, stemmed from SB1, Texas Republicans’ restrictive new voting law that not only requires an ID number on voters’ absentee ballots and applications, but also that the type of ID number match the number that a voter originally used to register. 

That law, signed by Governor Greg Abbott (R) last year, has now caused a massive spike in rejected applications to vote by mail. And for absentee voters in last week’s primary election, many of whom are elderly or disabled, it added an extra hurdle to what was once a simple process. 

Apparently, the number Emery wrote on her ballot — she thinks it was her driver’s license number — was not the one she used when she registered to vote. Other options include various state ID numbers and the last four digits of her Social Security number. Any of those numbers could be a voter’s ID number, it’s a question of which one a voter provided when they first registered.

“I did that 40 years ago,” Emery told TPM of her voter registration. “I just put a number down.”

When law-makers are warned that a law has unfortunate consequences, and they pass it anyway, you have to assume those consequences are intended.


Haven't you suspected all along that Stacey Abrams was from the future?


The Webb space telescope is starting to produce sharp images.


Senate hearings on Supreme Court nominee Ketanji Brown Jackson begin today.

Josh Hawley, the Senator who gave a raised-fist salute to the seditionists on January 6, and then put the image on a coffee mug for his supporters (without permission from the news organization that took the photo), has come up with a particularly slimy charge to throw at Jackson: She "has a pattern of letting child porn offenders off the hook for their appalling crimes".

One characteristic of an effective smear is that the charge is easier to grasp than an explanation of what really happened. For those who really want to understand, Ian Millhiser goes through the details. Other writers simply observe that Judge Jackson's sentencing practices are in line with most other judges. Sentencing guidelines in child porn cases are widely believed to be out of whack, particularly in their inability to distinguish more serious cases (i.e., professional producers of child porn) from less serious ones.

Senator Hawley has already voted to approve judges whose sentencing practices are similar to Jackson's.

Other Republicans looking for ammunition against Judge Jackson are joining this attack.


I'm not grasping the reasoning behind the push to make daylight saving time permanent. I can see not wanting to change clocks twice a year, but why not standardize on the original time system, rather than move it by an hour?

and let's close with something soothing

If life has been too hectic lately, take a few minutes to watch an otter getting a good combing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7rFrc5kqOk

Monday, March 14, 2022

Win or Lose

Is there somehow Putin can back off from this? I mean, in poker terms, he has gone all in. So he either wins or he loses. And I think, for us, Putin has to lose this war.

- Prime Minister Kaja Kallas of Estonia

This week's featured post is "How did Christianity become so toxic?" It's the most Christian Weekly Sift post ever, but I doubt everybody will see it that way.

This week everybody was talking about Ukraine

https://theweek.com/political-satire/1011208/putins-way-out

If the Ukraine War were a mini-series, we'd all be complaining that the plot moves too slowly. Just like last week and even the week before, Russia has an overwhelming advantage in nearly every factor of war: more airplanes, more tanks, more trained and experienced soldiers. And yet, like last week and the week before, the Ukrainians are doing much better than anyone expected. They're slowing the Russian forces down and making them pay a huge price, but they can't push them back. Little by little, Russia is advancing towards Ukraine's major cities, including Kyiv. As hope for a quick victory fades, the invaders get more indiscriminately destructive. So we see more refugees, and more scenes of urban devastation.

"OK, I get it," I keep saying to the TV. "Can we move this along a little?"

Meanwhile, there's an economic battle of wills going on. So far, Russia's been getting the worst of it. Both their stock market and ours have been sinking, but we're getting a correction at the end of a boom, while they're seeing a crash so bad they can't even open the exchanges. It takes more dollars to keep your car running, but a rouble is now worth less than a penny. Americans may wonder how we're going to pay our credit card bills, but at least the cards still work. You don't see thousands of Americans stuck in foreign countries with no way to pay their bills.

https://theweek.com/political-satire/1011143/high-costs

Putin, though, has one major advantage over Biden: It's a lot easier for him to ignore his people's suffering, and there's a lot less they can do to challenge him. So the Russian people can be forced to endure economic devastation, but we still don't know whether the American people have the stomach for a recession. It's one thing to put a flag decal on your truck and talk about how willing you are to die for freedom. But how long will such patriots be willing to spend over $100 to fill their trucks' gas tanks?

Stay tuned. It may be several episodes before that question gets answered.


President Zelensky will address Congress (virtually) on Wednesday.


Would the owner of this $700 million yacht please step forward? Otherwise we're going to think it belongs to Putin.


A professor of strategic studies at Scotland's St. Andrews University has a fascinating interpretation of the Russian advance: They have enough fuel trucks to supply their army as long as it's within 90 miles of supply depots. And that's about how far they've advanced into Ukraine. "Logistics Rule," he says.


https://jensorensen.com/2022/03/09/russia-america-dont-say-gay-lgbtq-rights-cartoon/

Russia and Tucker Carlson have been claiming that the US is funding mysterious bio-weapons labs in Ukraine. The NYT fact-checked and characterized the claims as "baseless".

And as he so often does, Carlson snuck in another piece of Russian disinformation in an off-hand remark:

In 2014, [Undersecretary of State] Toria Nuland engineered a coup in Ukraine

You remember, that was the Revolution of Dignity that sent Putin's corrupt puppet (and Paul Manafort's former client) Viktor Yanukovych running back to Russia, where he still lives in his $52 million house. A central piece of Russian propaganda is that this was an American plot rather than a popular uprising. Carlson buys this, because of course he does.


Trump still won't criticize Putin. But at least he's not stooping to the level of Rep. Madison Cawthorn, who called President Zelensky a "thug" and the Ukrainian government "incredibly evil".

and legalized bigotry

Florida's Don't Say Gay bill passed the legislature on Tuesday. Governor DeSantis is expected to sign it.

Friday, a Texas state court ruled that the Governor Abbott had violated the state constitution with his new policy of investigating families for "child abuse" if their children got medical treatment for gender dysphoria. Nine investigations had been underway.

and you also might be interested in ...

The Purdue Pharma bankruptcy settlement finally got approved. Unlike a previous version, the Sackler family isn't immunized against future criminal charges.


For months I was on the Trump mailing list to keep track what he was up to. Often there were fund-raising gimmicks, where contributing would enter you to win something-or-other. It turns out that sometimes he just takes the money and nobody wins the prize. Who could have imagined that the founder of Trump University would con his fans like that?


WNBA star Brittney Griner has been held in Russia for weeks on drug-smuggling charges. NY Magazine wonders why this isn't a bigger story.


Last week, the NYT devoted way too much space to University of Virginia student Emily Camp's complaints about being made to feel uncomfortable when she expresses her beliefs, as if this is a new thing that never happened to anybody but White conservatives.

Jessica Valenti responds:

And that’s what is at the heart of so many of these ‘cancel culture’ complaints; conservatives don’t just want to be bigots, they want to be bigots with friends. They want to say terrible things and still get swiped right on; they want to support legislation that puts people’s lives in danger and somehow still get invited to parties. 

But here’s the thing: Expressing unlikeable views often makes you unlikeable. That’s not censorship, it’s life. 

What people call cancel culture is really just run-of-the-mill social and moral consequences—which have been around forever. A society decides what kind of values they find important, and which they find intolerable. You are more than welcome to be on the wrong side of history, but it certainly doesn’t entitle you to friends. 

and let's close with something artistic

Check out John Atkinson's webtoons, many of which are somewhat drastic abridgements of classic books.

Monday, March 7, 2022

Not Privileged

Communications in which a “client consults an attorney for advice that will serve him in the commission of a fraud or crime” are not privileged from disclosure.

- the January 6 Committee

This week's featured post is really just another collection of short notes, but focused on the war in Ukraine.

This week everybody was talking about Ukraine

https://www.politico.com/cartoons/2022/03/04/the-nations-cartoonists-on-the-week-in-politics-00014016?slide=3

I pushed all my Ukraine notes into the featured post. But even if you're not following the war, you should see this little girl entertain the other people in the shelter by singing "Let It Go" in Ukrainian.

and the State of the Union

Text and video are at whitehouse.gov.

I think we can all agree that President Biden is not the orator President Obama was. But at least he's not the bullshitter that Trump was. He has a good story to tell, and he needs to get more help telling it:

  • Biden deserves credit for re-unifying NATO after the demoralizing Trump years. The international response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine makes a sharp contrast with Trump's go-it-alone trade war against China, which accomplished nothing.
  • Thanks to the fact that 75% of American adults are now vaccinated, we can start getting our lives back to some semblance of normal. The vaccines were developed during the previous administration, but Biden can take a bow for getting shots in arms. (That's precisely the kind of detailed organizing the previous administration was bad at.)
  • Thanks largely to the American Rescue Plan, the economy is bouncing back quickly from its Covid slump. As Biden pointed out: "unlike the $2 trillion tax cut passed in the previous administration that benefitted the top 1 percent of Americans, the American Rescue Plan helped working people and left no one behind. And, folks — and it worked. It worked. It worked and created jobs — lots of jobs. In fact, our economy created over 6.5 million new jobs just last year, more jobs in one year than ever before in the history of the United States of America."
  • The Bipartisan Infrastructure Plan is actually going to rebuild America in ways that Trump talked about, but never delivered on.

Biden took some credit for Ford and GM's decisions to invest billions developing and building electric cars in the US; and for Intel's decision to invest $20 billion outside of Columbus. He quoted Intel's CEO (who was present) saying that they could invest $100 billion if the Innovation and Competition Act passes.

Much of the rest of the speech was about proposals stalled in Congress: cutting the cost of prescription drugs, combating climate change, subsidizing child care, insisting that corporations pay taxes, cracking down on monopolies and oligopolies, giving Dreamers a path to citizenship, protecting abortion rights and voting rights, and more.

It's a balancing act: taking credit for what's been done while holding out hope that we can do more. And this is where Biden's rhetorical failings hurt him. It's too easy to lose sight of what's been done in the face of what hasn't been done, or to write off what hasn't been accomplished yet as pie in the sky.


At least one poll shows Biden getting a bounce from the SOTU/Ukraine combination.


The February jobs report came out, and continued to show the progress Biden pointed to. The economy added 678K jobs in February, as unemployment fell to 3.8%. It was 3.5% when Trump proclaimed "the best economy ever".


The Boebert/Greene heckling of Biden was a new low in SOTU behavior: Boebert heckled Biden (about the 13 servicemen who died during the Afghanistan withdrawal) just as he was talking about the death of his son Beau, whose brain cancer may have been caused by pollution from military burn pits.

Previous congressional heckling incidents, like Joe Wilson's "You lie!" directed (falsely) at President Obama in 2009, were violations of decorum and showed disrespect for the presidency as well as Congress. But Boebert violated basic human decency. You don't heckle a guy who is talking about his dead son. I don't care if it's the president speaking to a joint session of Congress or a drunk sitting next to you at the bar. You just don't do it.

and Trump's crimes

John Eastman, the author of the Mike-Pence-can-overturn-the-election theory, is fighting to keep his papers and emails away from the January 6 committee, claiming they are covered by attorney/client privilege. This week the committee submitted its rejoinder to that claim.

Much of their filing concerns the nuts and bolts of attorney/client privilege. Specifically, Eastman has not documented that he had such a relationship with Trump or the Trump campaign at all, and if he does, he will still need to show how that relationship applies to each of the requested documents, rather than claiming a blanket privilege. (Example: My nephew is a lawyer. But conversations we have during family dinners are not privileged unless I have engaged him professionally and he is giving me legal advice at the time. And even in that case, he could still report to a grand jury that I did indeed eat the brussel sprouts.)

But that's not the most interesting part of the filing, because even if Eastman could establish all that (the burden of proof being on him in this situation), that's not the end of the story.

Communications in which a “client consults an attorney for advice that will serve him in the commission of a fraud or crime” are not privileged from disclosure.

The committee goes on to outline the crimes Trump and Eastman might have been plotting together. Particularly noteworthy is that what the committee is asking for -- the judge to review the documents in question before deciding whether the privilege applies -- doesn't require the committee to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that a crime occurred. It only requires

factual basis adequate to support a good faith belief by a reasonable person that in camera review of the materials may reveal evidence to establish the claim that the crime-fraud exception applies.

The possible crimes in question are

  • obstructing an official proceeding
  • conspiracy to defraud the United States
  • common law fraud

The basic conspiracy here is one you have undoubtedly already heard about: Trump and his associates attempted to prevent Congress from carrying out its constitutional duty to count the electoral votes that had been certified by the states. They did this by

  • trying to convince Vice President Pence to illegally claim the power to refuse to count certified electoral votes
  • promoting a false narrative of a stolen election, which induced multiple people to perform actions based on their belief of the false narrative

A key point here is that we're not just talking about a difference of opinion: Trump knew that what he was saying was false.

the President and Plaintiff engaged in an extensive campaign to persuade the public, state officials, members of Congress, and Vice President Pence that the 2020 election had been unlawfully “stolen” by Joseph Biden. The President continued this effort despite repeated assurances from countless sources that there was no evidence of widespread election fraud. On November 12, 2020, CISA issued a joint statement of election security agencies stating: “There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised.” At around the same time, researchers working for the President’s campaign concluded that several the claims of fraud relating to Dominion voting machines were false.

In December, Attorney General Barr publicly announced that there was no widespread election fraud. By January 6, more than 60 court cases had rejected legal claims alleging election fraud. The New York court that suspended Giuliani’s law license said that certain of his allegations lacked a “scintilla of evidence.” On multiple occasions, acting Attorney General Rosen and acting Deputy Attorney General Donoghue told the President personally that the Department of Justice and Federal Bureau of Investigations had found no evidence to substantiate claims being raised by the President. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger likewise rebutted many of the President’s allegations of fraud in Georgia. Despite these refutations and the absence of any evidence to support the allegations he was making, the President and his associates continued to publicly advance the narrative that the election had been tainted by widespread fraud.

The filing then goes into detail about one particular false claim: that "suitcases of ballots" were pulled from under a table in Georgia. It lists all the ways that both Georgia election officials and local media had debunked this claim, only to see Trump repeat it in Facebook ads.


On what Trump knew about his election-fraud claims, Bill Barr now says, "I told him all this stuff was bullshit."


Trump is always bold about what other people should do. Now he's telling audiences that he would not be afraid of war with Russia.

and states attack gay and trans kids and their families

https://nickanderson.substack.com/p/speaking-of-child-abuse

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has

authored a legal opinion declaring that providing gender-affirming care to minors is “child abuse” according to existing state law. Governor Greg Abbott then directed the Department of Family and Protective Services (DFPS), the state’s child welfare agency, to comply by investigating any reports of parents providing gender-affirming care to their children.

According to an ACLU lawsuit, Governor Abbott

has also declared that teachers, doctors, and the general public are all required, on pain of criminal penalty, to report to DFPS any person who provides or is suspected of providing medical treatment for gender dysphoria, a recognized condition with well-established treatment protocols.

Meanwhile, Florida is about to pass its Don't-Say-Gay law. The bill has already passed the House and made it to the floor of the Senate, where it is expected to pass. Gov. DeSantis has said he will sign it.

Like so many red-state bills to control what can be said in schools, the law is vague and will have a chilling effect on any discussion of gender identity or sexual orientation, whether it is specifically violates the law or not. Like the Texas abortion bill, parents can enforce it by suing their child's school, something no teacher wants to risk.

DeSantis' press secretary is publicly accusing anyone who opposes the bill of being a pedophile:

The bill that liberals inaccurately call ‘Don’t Say Gay’ would be more accurately described as an Anti-Grooming Bill. If you’re against the Anti-Grooming Bill, you are probably a groomer or at least you don’t denounce the grooming of 4-8 year old children. Silence is complicity.

Like the anti-Critical-Race-Theory laws, Don't Say Gay is based on fear-mongering about things that aren't actually happening. Where is the evidence of some statewide epidemic of pedophile grooming based in the public schools? It's crazy.

SNL's Kate McKinnon on Don't Say Gay: "I'm trying to make sense of all this. Does this Don't Say Gay law have a purpose? ... If the 90's were right and 'gay' means 'bad', then this is the gayest law I've ever seen."

and Judge Jackson

https://theweek.com/political-satire/1010933/overqualified-for-the-court

The outlines of Republican resistance to Supreme Court nominee Ketanji Brown Jackson are becoming clear: She's too liberal, and her experience as a public defender makes her soft on crime.

I expect dog whistles about race, but no explicit racial attacks. One tactic seems obvious: Find a really bad Black man that Jackson defended, and try to associate her with his crimes. Ideally, she got him off, or got him a light sentence, and then he committed worse crimes later. Nobody will say "Black", but his picture will be everywhere, as Willie Horton's was.

Mitch McConnell is trying to make a thing out of her refusal to denounce proposals that would add justices to the Court. Since the Court plays no role in deciding such things, she has no reason take a position -- or even form one, for that matter. McConnell might as well ask her opinion about NATO establishing a no-fly zone over Ukraine.


Tucker Carlson is demanding to see Ketanji Brown Jackson's LSAT score, a request he didn't make for any previous Supreme Court nominee. This is a standard racist tactic: When a Black person is up for promotion, suddenly there are issues nobody cared about before. For example, nobody ever cared about a president's birth certificate until we had a Black president.

And as we saw with Obama, no evidence is ever quite good enough. When he released his short-form birth certificate, he was accused of hiding the long form. When the long form came out, how did we know it wasn't a forgery? Then racists like Trump moved on to demand Obama's Harvard transcript. (Of course we never saw Trump's college transcript. That level of disclosure only applies to Black candidates.)

Inventing some new requirement is a way of making a Black job-seeker prove things that White applicants can take for granted, and implying that their candidacy is uniquely questionable. Demanding Judge Jackson's LSATs (or then accusing her of hiding them) is a way of implying doubts about her intelligence. And if she releases her score, what then? Unless it's a perfect 180 (which only 1 in 1,000 tests are), then Tucker can find a White guy who scored higher and ask why he's not the nominee -- as if LSATs were now the sole criterion. If she got a 179, she's an affirmative action hire.

but I want to talk about a TV show

Namely: Severance on Apple TV+.

One of the fundamental motifs of horror is to literalize some disturbing metaphor. So Bram Stoker's Count Dracula literalizes the metaphor that aristocrats suck the blood of the productive classes. Mary Shelley's worries that technologists might metaphorically be playing God, together with her fears that our Creator might be no better than we are, become literal in Dr. Frankenstein. The savagery of middle school becomes literal in Lord of the Flies.

Severance continues that tradition. The Lumon Corporation has developed a procedure that severs work memories from personal memories, so you forget whatever you did at work when you go home (to the extent that you don't even recognize co-workers if you meet them on the street), but you also forget your personal life when you're at work. (Do you have a family? You don't know.) The result is that the work-selves are entirely at the mercy of the corporation: In their experience, they never leave the office. Only the outside-selves can quit, but those personas don't know any reasons why they should. (You might imagine that Lumon would take advantage of severance to have its workers do horrible things, but the show doesn't go there: The work we see appears entirely meaningless.)

Several metaphorical fears are being literalized here: that we become different people at work; that the compartmentalization of our work lives is psychologically toxic; that our apparent autonomy is an illusion, because we're denied the information we need to make prudent decisions; that while we may put the victims of capitalism out of our minds, they are not actually different from us; and a number of others.

and you also might be interested in ...

This week I'm down-grading the pandemic to just another short note. New cases are back where they were in July, before the Delta surge, averaging 45K per day. Deaths are still running at 1500 per day, but are dropping at a rate of 31% over the last two weeks. Since cases are falling, deaths should continue falling for some time yet.


This cartoon speaks for itself:

and let's close with a reminder that anybody can be criticized

McSweeney's imagines negative classroom reviews of Jesus: "Feels like a class for farmers. Hope you like talking about seeds. Wheat seeds. Mustard seeds. Seeds, seeds, seeds."

"I asked him to sign my accommodations form from the Disability Services Office, and he spit on the ground and rubbed the dirt in my eyes. I can see now, but it was still rude."

"Only got the job because his dad is important."