Monday, May 11, 2026

Profoundly Wrong Things

Good people, people who go to church, people who love their families, people who believe they’re good have, throughout the history of this country, done deeply, profoundly wrong things to Black Americans, and they told themselves it was about something else. They told themselves that it was about economics, heritage, party, patriotism. It was never about something else. And today it’s not about something else.

- Tennessee State Senator Charlane Oliver

This week's featured post is a book review: "Phillips O'Brien's 'War and Power'".

Ongoing stories

  • Trump's assault on American democracy. With the Virginia Supreme Court throwing out the result of the state's redistricting referendum, and various southern states taking advantage of the Supreme Court's invitation to get rid of majority-minority districts, Republicans have now managed to tilt the playing field in their favor. Democrats will have to win the popular vote decisively in November to get a House majority.
  • Climate change. Early signs point to a strong El Nino effect this year, making weather events more extreme.
  • Iran. The pattern continues: Trump keeps announcing peace deals that the Iranians never agreed to. Nothing can change until Trump recognizes that he's going to wind up with a situation worse than the one at the start of the war. Trump can't admit that, so the Strait stays closed and gas prices keep rising.
  • Ukraine. Phillips O'Brien's weekly update discusses Putin's (realistic) fears that Ukraine could attack his Victory Day parade in Moscow with a long-range drone. Ukraine now hits Russia with more long-range drones than Russia uses against Ukraine. This must be very demoralizing for the Russian public, which (like Americans and Iran) has to wonder why it's in this war at all.

This week's developments

This week everybody was talking about the race to disenfranchise southern Blacks

The Virginia Supreme Court tossed out the results of the recent referendum. It's a 4-3 decision and highly questionable, but there's not a federal issue that would invite US Supreme Court intervention, even if we had an honest Supreme Court.

The Virginia redistricting was supposed to pick up four Democratic seats in Congress, and briefly looked like it put Democrats narrowly ahead in the redistricting wars. But not only has that been undone, but southern red states are wasting no time in using the Supreme Court's Callais decision to eliminate majority-Black districts. Tennessee has already eliminated its last such district by dividing the voters of Memphis among three districts that will now all have White Republican majorities.

The new map points to a 9-0 Republican advantage in the Tennessee delegation in the US House.

In one particularly outrageous moment, Democratic members of the Senate Judiciary Committee were kept out of the room where the redistricting proposal was being voted on, resulting in this soon-to-be-iconic photo of Justin Pearson and the sergeant-at-arms.

Louisiana, Alabama, and South Carolina are expected to follow suit this week with their own proposals to end Black representation in Congress.

and Trump's ballroom

I would hate to work for The Onion these days, because Trump keeps doing things that already sound like over-the-top parodies. Case in point: the proposed White House ballroom.

Originally, it wasn't supposed to cost the taxpayers anything (other than the cost of whatever favors Trump does for the private donors who funded it, plus the money lost to the tax deductions from these bribes gifts). That was the go-to response whenever anybody objected to Trump exceeding his authority by tearing down the East Wing without approval of Congress or buy-in from the appropriate DC architectural committees: It's free; be grateful.

But the ballroom kept getting bigger and glitzier. The price tag kept going up. And now We the People are getting the bill: $1 billion tucked into the omnibus bill Republicans are hoping to pass through reconciliation (i.e., without any Democratic votes).

So rich donors aren't building Trump's ballroom any more than Mexico has paid for Trump's wall. At a time when the government is saving money by kicking Americans off food stamps or refusing to subsidize their health insurance, it seems to have plenty of money to fight an unnecessary war and build a monument to Trump's vanity.

You and I will never see the inside of this ballroom, if it ever gets built. We'll just pay for it.


The ballroom issue is putting pressure on congressional Republicans, who face a choice between their constituents and the desires of He Who Must Be Obeyed.

One interesting political strategy: Democrats should make them own this. At some point in the reconciliation process, amendments will be possible. If Democrats propose to strip the ballroom funding out of the bill and then back that amendment, only a handful of Republican votes will be needed to pass it. That would let the vast majority of Republicans tell Trump they did their best, but tell their constituents that their bill doesn't pay for the ballroom.

But what if Democrats abstain on any anti-ballroom amendment? Then Republicans actually have to choose between voters and Their Lord and Master.

and Ka$h Patel

About a month ago, Atlantic reporter Sarah Fitzpatrick used a large number of anonymous sources within the FBI to verify that Director Kash Patel has a drinking problem -- something we all had to suspect after seeing the viral video of his alcohol-fueled celebration with the gold-medal-winning US Olympic hockey team.

On multiple occasions in the past year, members of his security detail had difficulty waking Patel because he was seemingly intoxicated, according to information supplied to Justice Department and White House officials. A request for “breaching equipment”—normally used by SWAT and hostage-rescue teams to quickly gain entry into buildings—was made last year because Patel had been unreachable behind locked doors, according to multiple people familiar with the request.

Patel responded with a $250-million defamation lawsuit, which (to begin with) assumes Patel ever had a reputation worth $250 million. Further, he would need to prove not just that the story is false, but that Atlantic either knew or should have known it was false, but published it anyway out of malice.

Simultaneously, Patel abused his position to open a leak investigation into Fitzpatrick's sources -- contradicting the implication that she didn't really have sources and just made the story up. (It's reminiscent of an old joke: A reporter writes that the president is a moron. He is prosecuted and goes to jail -- not for defamation, but for revealing a state secret.)

Well, Fitzpatrick and The Atlantic are so intimidated that they followed up:

After my story appeared, I heard from people in Patel’s orbit and people he has met at public functions, who told me that it is not unusual for him to travel with a supply of personalized branded bourbon. The bottles bear the imprint of the Kentucky distillery Woodford Reserve, and are engraved with the words “Kash Patel FBI Director,” as well as a rendering of an FBI shield. Surrounding the shield is a band of text featuring Patel’s director title and his favored spelling of his first name: Ka$h. An eagle holds the shield in its talons, along with the number 9, presumably a reference to Patel’s place in the history of FBI directors. In some cases, the 750-milliliter bottles bear Patel’s signature, with “#9” there as well. One such bottle popped up on an online auction site shortly after my story appeared, and The Atlantic later purchased it.

Why would anyone think that Ka$h has a problem, or that alcohol plays too large a role in his life?

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So far, the hantavirus doesn't seem worth panicking over. Still, it would be nice to have a trustworthy CDC right now.


So far, the rising price of gas, Trump's illegal tariffs, and other economic woes have not shown up in the job numbers. The April jobs report showed 115K more jobs and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%.

However, it's worth pointing out that the government is running a $2 trillion annual debt to get those results. As soon as a Democrat becomes president, the national debt will become an existential emergency again.


On the surface, the results of Trump slashing funding to fight AIDS in Africa doesn't look bad: People previously diagnosed are continuing to get their drugs and are not dying in large numbers. The forward-looking projections are alarming, though. Funding has collapsed for testing, so new people are getting AIDS and spreading it undetected.


For those former Christians who have chosen to worship Trump instead of Jesus, his Doral golf course now provides an idol they can use: a 17-foot gold-leaf statue sitting on a five-foot pedestal.

It's yet another case where satire has a hard time staying ahead of the news. In the current (and concluding) season of Amazon Prime's "The Boys", the series' villain (the super-powered Homelander) is declaring himself to be God, challenging the loyalty of his Christian nationalist base.

We can only hope that actual MAGA "Christians" will feel similarly challenged. So far they don't seem to.


Add Rep. Max Miller (R-OH) to the list of current or former Trump staffers with multiple accusations of domestic abuse.


A. R. Moxon raises an interesting point, related to accepting ex-MAGA folks like Marjorie Taylor Greene or Tucker Carlson: It's one thing to try to meet people where they are. But it will never work to try to meet people where they think they are, when they're not really there.

If they will only meet us in a place where we will agree with them that their bigotries have justification, their awareness need no expansion, and their conviction needs no progression, then I would say we can’t meet them where they are, because even if we show up where they are, they won’t be there, and if we go to where they think they are, we won’t be where we need to be.

and let's close with something hopeful

If you're looking for some reason not to give up, check out LOLGOP's "The Case of Earl Warren".

It begins with a provocative set of questions:

[W]hat if good and evil—as concepts, as actual forces in the world—what if they exist? What if people—regular, flawed, embarrassing, complicated people—can actually be moved beyond the programming of their nervous system or algorithm or the combination of the two? What if it’s possible to change your mind, or someone else’s mind, or the collective mind of a country that has been, let’s say, unwell? And maybe, by making the case now, we can shape history in the coming years by beginning a process that might regenerate something we once called conscience?

After that Twilight Zone intro, I can almost hear Rod Serling say: "Case in point: Earl Warren, an ambitious state attorney general with his eye on the governor's mansion." In the 1942 campaign, Warren found his issue: Japanese Americans. They were all potential traitors and needed to be put away. So after he ascended to the governorship of California, he enthusiastically went along with the Japanese internment, one of the most shameful things America had done since slavery. Warren was, in other words, xenophobic, hateful, and willing to scapegoat an entire ethnic group of innocent people to advance his political career.

But somehow, by 1954, he had become chief justice of the Supreme Court that outlawed racial segregation in America's schools. Between 1953 and 1969, the Warren Court established previously unrecognized rights of minority groups both racial and religious. It expanded our notions of free speech and put limits on the ability of police to railroad defendants.

As someone who remembers the last chunk of that era, I can testify: Warren was not just going with the flow here. The Warren Court wasn't being pulled along by the trends of its era. In many cases it was leading the parade towards human rights. Far from trying to please the crowd, Warren was making himself unpopular. "Impeach Earl Warren" was the right-wing slogan of the day.

While Warren's conversion probably didn't happen overnight on Christmas Eve, and I have no reason to believe ghosts were involved, it was a transformation worthy of Dickens.

He became, by many accounts, a genuinely different person. Under different conditions, with different pressures, with enough exposure to the consequences of what he’d helped create—he changed.

I’m not telling you this to make you feel better. I’m not telling you this because the arc of the moral universe bends toward justice and all of that. I’m telling you because the conditions that produced Earl Warren in 1942—the organized fear, the nativist infrastructure, the information environment that made cruelty feel like common sense—those conditions are not so different in their structure from what’s producing the people who scare and exhaust us today.

Which means: they are not a different species. Which means: some of them can be moved. Which means: the work of figuring out how to move them is not naive.

Monday, May 4, 2026

Necessary Means

Our difficulty with the Court today rises not from the Court as an institution but from human beings within it. But we cannot yield our constitutional destiny to the personal judgement of a few men who, being fearful of the future, would deny us the necessary means of dealing with the present.

- Franklin Roosevelt, On "Court Packing"
March 9, 1937

This week's featured post is "What to do with a lawless Supreme Court?"

Ongoing stories

This week's developments

This week everybody was talking about voting rights

The Supreme Court's decision voiding the remainder of the Voting Rights Act is the topic of the featured post.

and abortion access

Friday, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals issued an order against mailing the abortion drug mifepristone. Today, the Supreme Court stayed that order for a week.

States that have outlawed abortion, like Louisiana, object to their citizens still having access to it via teleprescriptions and the mail. They allege that taking mifepristone at home is unsafe, though that seems to be a pretext.

It's not clear what the next step in this case is.

and the war

Nothing major seems to be happening, but it's hard to tell because of conflicting claims and counter-claims by the two sides. The US claims to have escorted two ships through the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians claim to have hit a US warship.

The two sides' peace proposals continue to be far apart. Iran's 14 points are all about ending US attacks without any concessions on their part. US proposals want Iran to turn over its nuclear material and swear off future nuclear ambitions without any concessions on our part.

Meanwhile, oil remains around $114 per barrel. Paul Krugman keeps pointing to the physical constraints: The world is burning more oil than is being shipped. If this continues, the stockpiles will run out. At that point, if not before, the price will have to rise high enough that demand falls to equal supply.

and the Comey indictment

Nearly a year ago, James Comey photographed seashells arranged to spell out "86/47", which Trump and his loyalists exaggerated into a threat of assassination (86) against Trump (47). As soon as Comey heard this interpretation, he took the photo down and apologized.

Now he has been indicted for making a threat and transmitting it over social media. Each count carries a maximum sentence of ten years in prison.

The whole thing is absurd on many levels, and illustrates just how far the current Justice Department will go to harass people Trump views as his enemies.

  • 86 has a variety of meanings, and it's not clear that killing someone is even the most typical one.
  • We're not sure whether Comey arranged the shells himself, or just found someone else's arrangement on a beach.
  • Comey denies he intended the photo as a threat, and no evidence publicly available indicates otherwise.
  • It's not clear whether Comey is supposed to have intended to carry out this alleged threat himself, or was saying that someone should do it.
  • In all previous cases, statements like this unconnected to a specific plan aren't prosecuted under this statute. Simply saying "Somebody should kill this guy" is just free speech unless you are directly inciting somebody to do it. Ditto for "I'd like to kill this guy" if you have no specific plan to do so.

A judge will throw this out well before a jury hears it.

Isn't it wonderful that the US is so crime-free that the Justice Department has time to waste on stuff like this?

and you also might be interested in ...

The government owes billions in refunds to American businesses that paid Trump's illegal tariffs. The big corporations have lawyers and other specialists to navigate the refund process, so they'll probably get their money back. But small businesses probably won't.


The DHS funding shutdown is over, except for funding Trump's mass deportation programs. Republicans are preparing a reconciliation measure this summer to fund ICE and the border patrol through the end of Trump's term, presumably so that next year's Democratic Congress won't have any leverage over these rogue agencies.

Democrats objected to funding ICE and CBP without restrictions after the videotaped murders of Alex Pretti and Rene Good in Minneapolis in January. The agents who committed these crimes have faced no charges, and federal agencies have done everything they could to block Minnesota's investigations.


Democratic senators have been asking Trump's judicial nominees who won the 2020 election and whether Trump could run for a third term in 2028. They can't answer clearly, which should make everyone doubt their objectivity and resistance to Trump's intimidation.


On Star Wars Day, Paul Krugman compares the proposed Trump battleships to the Death Star. The difference: The Death Star actually got built.


Trump's new surgeon general nominee is yet another Fox News talking head, but at least this one has an active medical license. She says a lot of questionable things, but doesn't appear to be crazy.


60 Minutes correspondent Sharyn Alfonsi received the Ridenhour Courage Prize for standing up to CBS' management efforts to alter her piece on El Salvador's CECOT Prison, where the Trump administration had sent a number of migrants.

I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t scared. Fear is a funny thing – it can paralyze you, or it can point you to exactly what needs to be protected. Right now, our industry is afraid of the wrong things. We’re afraid of offending power. We’re afraid of losing access. We’re afraid of another baseless lawsuit. But what we should all be afraid of is silence. Because as I learned [at her first job as a waitress], there is a fine line between being a team player and being an accomplice.

The Ridenhour Prizes are named for Ron Ridenhour, who exposed the My Lai massacre. They've been awarded since 2004, with the first prize going to Daniel Ellsberg, who leaked the Pentagon Papers.

and let's close with something wild

If you want to get your mind off the news, The Guardian's "Week in Wildlife" gallery is a good choice. The squirrel above appears to be adjusting the camera.

Monday, April 27, 2026

Don't Start

The best way to achieve what is now the central war aim — opening the Strait — would have been simply not to start the war in the first place.

- Josh Marshall

This week's featured posts are "Where the Gerrymandering Battle Stands After Virginia" and "Fixing the Asylum Mess".

Ongoing stories

  • Trump's assault on American democracy. Now that gerrymandering has failed as a strategy for hanging onto power, I eagerly await Trump's next move.
  • Climate change. Check out George Manbiot's column on the possible collapse of the the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.
  • The Iran/Lebanon War. Formal peace talks aren't happening. Saturday, Trump told Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff to stay home for now. Iran is offering to re-open the Strait of Hormuz to end the war, essentially offering Trump no gain from it.
  • Ukraine. Here's the Institute for the Study of War's current update.

This week's developments

This week everybody was talking about gerrymandering

That's the subject of one featured post.

and the shooting at the White House Correspondents' Dinner

Saturday, a gunman fired several shots during the dinner, which President Trump and many other administration officials were attending. The shots were audible inside the ballroom, but none of the guests were injured.

From a pure how-could-this-happen point of view, I found the analysis at the Doomsday Scenario blog informative and down to Earth. Garrett Graff is a journalist who has attended past WHC dinners and has written extensively about presidential security. He thinks the security plan worked pretty well: It's unreasonable to expect the Secret Service to lock down an entire hotel that has multiple unrelated events and guests, so the goal is to stop would-be attackers well before they get within range of the president. That's what happened Saturday.

My political response is that I'm glad the attack was unsuccessful. Anyone who reads this blog regularly knows that I consider the Trump regime to be the greatest threat to American democracy since the Civil War, and I have no great affection for Trump as a person. But I think we're on track to restore the constitutional order through the electoral system, as the Founders intended and as Hungary has recently done. Anything that sends us off on a violent trajectory is a risk I'd rather not take.

Speaking frankly, the attack was fortuitously timed for Trump, perhaps breaking a cycle that sees his popularity touch new lows with each poll. Given the boost his 2024 campaign got from a failed assassination attempt, it's hard not to be suspicious. But I'm not going to push any conspiracy theories unless substantial evidence presents itself. I'd be far more suspicious if the shooter hadn't survived to tell his own story.

Dean Blundell (who is a little too rabidly anti-Trump for my taste) noted that it only took minutes to start the talking point that "This is why the White House needs its own ballroom."

Predictably, the media is asking Democrats if they regret their anti-Trump rhetoric, and completely ignoring the overall rhetorical environment. Trump himself is by far the greatest source of inflammatory rhetoric, often referring to his opponents or critics as insane or treasonous.

and the war

Not much new to say. Trump continues to want to dictate terms to Iran as if he had won the war. Iran doesn't feel defeated and won't be dictated to. The Obama agreement that Trump tore up looks better and better all the time.

and the Southern Poverty Law Center

The latest example of politicization at the Department of Justice is the indictment of the Southern Poverty Law Center.

Everyone more-or-less agrees on the basic facts: The SPLC paid people to infiltrate various right-wing and white-supremacist groups, as it has done for decades. Since their agents were undercover, the SPLC didn't publicize their work. DOJ is charging that this was a fraud against SPLC's contributors. I haven't given money to the SPLC in years, but I'm still probably fairly representative of their donors. I would not feel defrauded.

and you also might be interested in ...

Early direct consequence of the Hungarian election: The EU approved a $106 billion loan to Ukraine.


Friday, Trump fired all 24 members of the National Science Foundation's governing board. This is exactly what it appears to be: a move to make scientific research less independent and more partisan.


Remember the Afghans who are in trouble with the Taliban because they helped us? We've got 1100 of them housed at a military base in Qatar, and we've made them this amazing offer: Go to the Congo or go home to the Taliban.


Texas Tech has gone even further than banning LGBTQ-friendly majors and courses. It even bans sexual-orientation and gender-identity as topics for student research.


Canary Media makes the case against biofuels, which sound like a great idea but often aren't. Not only do biofuel crops (like corn) have a high carbon footprint in the US, but internationally they encourage cropland expansion that results in deforestation. Sadly, both parties have latched onto biofuels as a good idea.

Democrats need a new approach to agriculture, focused less on the 1% of Americans who farm and more on the 100% who eat. That would mean redistributing less money from ordinary taxpayers to the biggest farmers who grow the most common row crops, while also opposing the tariffs, price supports, and biofuel mandates that raise prices at the supermarket. Let Trump stand for giving farmers ​“much better than a level playing field.” Democrats should stand with everybody else.


Small farmers are in trouble this year: Thanks to the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, fertilizer and diesel fuel costs are way up. Most farmers voted for Trump.


Trump and his allies have been having a hard time in court. Laura Loomer's $150 million lawsuit against Bill Maher (for saying on his comedy show that Trump "might be" f**king Loomer) was thrown out -- at least partly because of evidence the claim was true.

And a federal judge appears skeptical of Trump's $10 billion shake-down of the Treasury. He's suing the IRS because some of his tax information got leaked to the media during his first term. Conceivably there might be damage there, but nothing like $10 billion. But that's not what's bothering the judge: Since Trump oversees the IRS, he controls both sides of the litigation. He is essentially in a position to award himself money.

The No Kings protester who dressed as a penis holding a "No Dick Tater" sign is not guilty of whatever police in Fairhope, Alabama tried to charge her with. Attempting to show the woman was trying to get arrested, the prosecution called her husband to the stand as a surprise witness, and asked if he had brought bail money to the protest.

“I always make sure I have bail money!” Fletcher replied emphatically, as if this should be the most obvious thing in the world. Did he have bail money on him now? “Yeah!” Fletcher exclaimed, then gestured broadly. “With this many cops around? Come on.” The room erupted with laughter.


Massachusetts is encouraging the installation of giant batteries to even out solar power.


and let's close with a blast from the past

Musical comedian Victor Borge was quite popular in my youth, but has largely been forgotten. Enjoy.

Monday, April 20, 2026

Woe

Woe to those who manipulate religion and the very name of God for their own military, economic and political gain, dragging that which is sacred into darkness and filth.

- Pope Leo XIV

This week's featured post is "Can Democrats gain from MAGA discontent?"

Ongoing stories

  • Trump's assault on American democracy. The Justice Department is working increasingly hard to support Trump's conspiracy theories about rigged elections.
  • Climate change. Rising sea levels is looking like a bigger problem than previously thought.
  • The Iran/Lebanon war. The Strait is closed again. Trump wants us to believe that he'll achieve a victory-like peace any day now. But it's not happening.
  • Ukraine. Ukraine is coping with its shortage of soldiers by fielding more robots.

This week's developments

This week everybody was talking about the war

Last week I predicted that Trump's anti-blockade-blockade would fail to convince Iran's leaders they are defeated.

In a few days it will be clear that this move didn’t work either, so Trump will go back to threatening to kill Iran’s “whole civilization“.

Well, here we are. Yesterday morning Trump tweeted:

We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!

I see no end in sight here. Trump won't stop the bombing until he has an agreement he can spin as a victory, and there is no victory to be had. So he will keep doing what he's been doing: destroying stuff and killing people, then stopping the bombing and announcing that Iran has made concessions it hasn't actually made, then getting angry when Iran doesn't do what he said they would do, then resuming the destruction and killing.

I am amazed the news media and the stock market keep taking Trump's statements seriously. Thursday, for example, he claimed Iran had agreed to give up its enriched uranium. The claim got lots of headlines and a rise out of the stock market, which set records on Friday. But it was just a fantasy, so Sunday we're back to threatening to commit war crimes.


Meanwhile, Trump's approval is not exactly "cratering", as some claim. Rather, it's just inexorably headed downward, week by week. It's not any one development that's turning people around. Rather, it's the unending bad decisions and outrageous behavior. Every day brings something new. Half the country now disapproves "strongly" of his overall performance, with another 13% disapproving "somewhat".

and Trump vs. the Pope

I would like to ignore the Trump-versus-Pope story, because it's another one of those stories that gets people wound up for no real purpose. (I mean: If Trump were generally governing justly and well, but just couldn't get along with the Pope, it wouldn't bother me.) But I have to comment on the ridiculous ways Trump's sycophants have tried to support him. Nominally a Catholic himself, J. D. Vance warned:

I think it’s very, very important for the pope to be careful when he talks about matters of theology.

and said that the Vatican should "stick to matters of morality"-- as if war were not a moral issue. And Speaker Mike Johnson -- not a Catholic, but someone who brings religion up quite often -- claimed that the Pope doesn't understand the Just War doctrine.

Let's think about that for a second. A war can be fought justly if all the following conditions apply:

  • Going to war is a last resort, after all non-violent means fail.
  • The war's sole purpose is to redress an injustice.
  • The war is not for a hopeless cause, but has a reasonable chance of succeeding.
  • The goal must be a reestablishment of peace.
  • The violence of the war is proportional to the injustice being redressed.
  • Every effort is taken to avoid civilian casualties.

No matter how you spin the facts, that is not a description of the current war.


Phillips O'Brien:

To understand why the USA is where it is today, all you need to do is see that Trump cannot tolerate even the mildest, insightful criticism from the Pope, but Trump will allow Putin to humiliate him deeply and constantly, while still craving Putin’s approval.

and you also might be interested in ...

As predicted last week, Eric Swalwell hasn't just ended his campaign for governor of California, he has resigned from Congress. Simultaneously, Republican Tony Gonzales resigned. He's the guy whose female staffer committed suicide after Gonzales pressured her for sex. The cases proceeded at very different speeds: The Swalwell allegations only surfaced about a week before his resignation. Gonzales had been in trouble since September.


Remember the Dreamers, undocumented people who were brought to America as small children and know no other country? Giving them a path to citizenship has been popular since the Obama administration first offered them protection. Well, Trump's ICE has deported 174 of them.


The DOGE bros who destroyed USAID had no idea what it did.


California's high minimum wage appears not to have killed jobs and barely raised prices.


Having no answers for any of Texans' real issues, the Texas GOP is trying to push Islamophobia.


ICE is doing a better job of avoiding headlines than it did pre-Minneapolis. But it is still a lawless gang of thugs. A federal judge in the Eastern District of New York explains his release order for two men unlawfully detained:

Respondents [i.e., ICE] have arrested individuals, detained them, and then afterwards issued arrest warrants that document the basis for the arrest. Sadly, ICE’s own “testimony confirmed that this illegal practice has become standard procedure for ICE enforcement efforts in this district.” ... Police and law enforcement cannot operate as roving bands, detaining individuals, figuring out the reasons later, and papering over their failures afterwards. This sadly is the practice in many other parts of the world. But in the United States, the law prohibits such conduct.


NPR looks at how Iowa's school-voucher program affects students in Cedar Rapids. Mostly, the results follow the obvious predictions:

  • Charter schools have to maintain a lot of public school standards (like admitting anyone), but they benefit from massive donations from rich supporters. They have better, newer facilities than legacy public schools.
  • Private schools can pick and choose students, so they get state money while avoiding expensive special ed students and students considered "disruptive". They grow, and also become a destination for white flight, as well as for parents who consider the public schools dangerous.
  • Public schools lose students and funding, and have to worry about closing.

RFK Jr. has pulled research funding from lots of MRNA vaccine programs. But one has just shown impressive results in treating pancreatic cancer, which currently has a low survival rate.


The Trump regime is stacking the deck in order to get more indictments of his perceived enemies. They have defined a "grand conspiracy" case that claims all the investigations of Trump's illegal acts were part of a single plot, and they are pushing that case in a Florida district where corrupt Trump judge Aileen Cannon can oversee it. They've fired the career prosecutor and replaced her with a Trump puppet.


The NYT has found hundreds of AI-generated pro-Trump influencers on social media. They have diverse appearances, but similar messages.


Utah is constructing a 1300-bed facility for the homeless. It's seven miles from Salt Lake City's center and isn't planned to include public transportation. Common Dreams fears it could become a forced-labor camp.

and let's close with a rerun

This mash-up of Bruno Mars's music with Hollywood's dancing is one of my favorite closings. I have used it before, but that was years ago.

Monday, April 13, 2026

Accelerating Trends

The war has accelerated or made evident a trend that was already there, which is that the whole Trump administration is about a kind of rebalancing of power, so that we are less powerful and our rivals are more powerful.

- Timothy Snyder

There is no featured post this week.

Ongoing stories

  • Trump's assault on American democracy. The Hungarian election has no direct effect on the US, but Viktor Orbán's landslide defeat (after Trump and Vance pulled out all the tops to support him) has to worry the Trump regime. Orbán was the prototype, and he failed.
  • Climate change. The difficulty opening the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting $100-per-barrel oil should motivate more countries to transition away from fossil fuels.
  • Israel/Palestine. The focus of conflict has moved to Lebanon, where Israel is applying a tactic it used in Gaza: domicide, i.e., to "systematically destroy and damage civilian housing to render entire areas uninhabitable".
  • Ukraine. One winner from the Hungarian election is Ukraine. Orbán was Putin's man in the EU, and his objection was standing in the way of the EU making a 90 billion euro loan to Ukraine.
  • Epstein. The Iran War had gotten the Epstein scandal out of the headlines, but Melania put if back in. What was she thinking?

This week's developments

This week everybody was talking about the "peace" talks with Iran

One downside of taking a vacation is that I have missed my chance to say "I told you so" about the ceasefire and negotiations, because I did not in fact tell you so. During my vacation I told other people that Trump would announce a fake ceasefire, falsely claim that Iran had agreed to all kinds of concessions, and then resume the war when the reality became clear. But I have no written record to point to.

The reality is this: Trump badly miscalculated when he started this war. American air power can destroy anything it wants in Iran (other than the deeply buried uranium stocks), but it can't make the Iranians surrender.

Trump, though, lives an in alternate reality where his power is absolute. J. D. Vance's mission was doomed from the start because he went to Islamabad not to negotiate peace, but to dictate terms to an enemy Trump falsely insists is defeated. Vance explained his failure: "They have chosen not to accept our terms." Of course they wouldn't. As pummeled as Iran's military currently is, the nation is not defeated. Defeating them will require either hundreds of thousands of ground troops or a willingness to commit genocide.


Increasingly, however, Trump's alternate reality is being taken seriously in mainstream media. After Vance's entirely predictable failure, The Washington Post wrote:

The involvement of Vice President JD Vance had raised hopes around the world that the weekend negotiations in Pakistan would solidify the ceasefire with Iran and put an end to the war within reach.

Really? Bill Grueskin commented on BlueSky:

In what universe did this take place?

The WaPo article went on to describe Vance as "President Donald Trump’s most high-profile war skeptic", which is probably how Vance will try to pitch himself in 2028. But there is no evidence that his pre-war self-description as a "skeptic of foreign military interventions" actually resulted in any protest once Trump started bombing.


As many people have reported, Trump went into the war with his Venezuela adventure as a model: A quick decapitation strike would convince the new leaders to do whatever Trump wanted.

Trump understood the Venezuelan leaders, because fundamentally they are like him: They are interested primarily in their own wealth and power, so there is nothing they are willing to die for. Iran's leaders, on the other hand, are willing to lose everything including their lives. So Trump has no idea how to deal with them.

So Trump's latest idea is to blockade the Strait of Hormuz himself. He didn't like the idea that Iran could profit by charging tolls on the Strait, so he's going to block everything, no matter what that does to the price of oil. And that would make sense if the Iranian leaders were motivated by profit the way Trump is. But they're not, so Trump is essentially doing their job for them: Iran intended to disrupt the world economy by driving up the price of oil, and now Trump is helping them do it.

In a few days it will be clear that this move didn't work either, so Trump will go back to threatening to kill Iran's "whole civilization".


Two points:

  • Ending a country's "civilization" is a war crime. And since the world does not recognize a Nuremberg defense ("I was just following orders"), Trump will be involving members of the American military in war crimes. If anyone you care about is in the military, this should worry you.
  • Like Netanyahu before him, Trump has fallen for the fallacy that if your opponent is evil, you can't become the bad guy. But you can. Hamas is certainly evil, but nonetheless Netanyahu became the bad guy in the Gaza War. The Iranian regime is likewise evil. But if Trump's unprovoked attack on Iran turns genocidal, he will be the bad guy.

For a high-level view of the Iran War and its place in geo-political strategy, I recommend listening to an hour-long conversation between Timothy Snyder (author of On Tyranny) and Phillips O'Brien (author of War and Power). That's where the quote at the top comes from.

One scary conclusion they come to: The Iran War proves we would lose a non-nuclear war with China over Taiwan. Modern war is less about the big, expensive systems the US military is based on and more about manufacturing large numbers of cheap drones and similar devices. In World War II, the US was "the arsenal of democracy", because we could manufacture planes, tanks, ships, and other munitions in larger quantities than anyone else. We've lost that edge. In the Iran War, we are firing advanced munitions like Tomahawk and Patriot missiles many times faster than we can build them.

Conversely, if you want to manufacture large numbers of things quickly today, where do you go? China. In a war with China, if we couldn't win in a week, we would run out of weapons and lose.


Snyder and O'Brien both like the nonprofit foundation Come Back Alive, which supplies the Ukrainian military. As they describe it, CBA connects what the Ukrainians need to garage-level workshops that make drones and anti-drone tech. Their tech evolves constantly and is currently some of the best in the world.

and Hungary

The model for Trump's Project 2025 and his overall attempt to strangle American democracy has been what Viktor Orbán did in Hungary: change election laws to favor his party, get legal immunity from a corrupt judiciary, use government power to push the media into friendly hands, turn the universities away from objective scholarship into pro-government propaganda vehicles, tame big business through corrupt government regulating and contracting, and so forth.

The goal, at least immediately, is not a Hitler/Stalin style dictatorship where political opponents can be killed at will or arrested and sent to concentration camps. Instead, the government establishes a soft autocracy that maintains the appearance of freedom and democracy, but stacks the deck in ways that prevent the formation of any effective opposition. Vox sums up:

The basic goal was to create a system where the government doesn’t have to formally rig elections, in the sense of stuffing ballot boxes. It could generally rely on the background unfairness of the system, the structural disadvantages opposition parties face, to reliably maintain a constitutional majority. Political scientists call this kind of regime “competitive authoritarianism” — a system in which elections are real, but so unfair that they can’t reasonably be termed democratic contests.

... The result of all this has been a remarkably durable authoritarian system. In the 2014 and 2018 elections, Fidesz [i.e., Orbán's party] managed to retain its two-thirds majority in parliament with less than half of the national popular vote. In 2022, the various opposition parties united around a single candidate and party list to try and overcome its structural disadvantages — and Fidesz actually improved its vote share, easily retaining its two-thirds majority.

The flaw in that model is that if the public gets sufficiently united against the government, the official thumb on the scale might not be heavy enough.

Sunday, Hungarians took advantage of what power they have left to oust Orbán. After 16 years in power, his party was decisively swept out. The opposition has won a 2/3rds supermajority in Parliament, which is big enough to undo the constitutional changes Orbán made.

I happened to be in Budapest Thursday, on a tour I arranged last fall without any journalistic motive. I don't speak Hungarian and had little opportunity to talk to the locals, but I did see the election posters dominating every flat surface, and workmen setting up for a huge opposition concert Friday. I worried about a violent outcome to the election, so I was not sorry to get out before the action started.

and the astronauts

Sadly, the Artemis II mission all but vanished from the headlines. I'm showing my age here, but I remember when the whole nation was transfixed by each new space flight. One of the few things my grandfather and I were both interested in was watching the countdown for John Glenn's launch. In school, we took time out of class to watch an unmanned mission that did nothing more than stick a TV camera onto a rocket and slam it into the Moon.

The four astronauts of Artemis II looped around the Moon, went farther from Earth than any human ever has, and successfully returned to Earth on Friday.

and you also might be interested in ...

The week's most mysterious story is why Melania called a news conference to read a statement saying that she was not connected to Jeffrey Epstein. She was not responding to anything obvious in the news cycle, so her main accomplishment was to start people wondering whether what she is denying is actually true.

New York magazine speculates:

The most logical explanation: The First Lady is trying to get ahead of forthcoming story about her ties to Epstein. But there are no specific rumors about such a story circulating on social media; it’s all just conjecture based on Melania’s statement.

But The Guardian's Arwa Mahdawi offers a simpler theory:

I have another possible explanation. And that is that the Trumps aren’t just morally bankrupt, they’re also very, very stupid. A lot of people seem reluctant to acknowledge this about the president; they will tie themselves into knots trying to argue that his erratic actions actually represent a genius playing four-dimensional chess. He’s not really a madman, they insist, he’s just playing one on Truth Social! I understand why people want to believe this: it’s comforting to think there’s some sort of method behind the madness. But if there is any sort of method, I certainly can’t see it. All I can see is a man who thinks he can bully his way through life.

Here’s the thing: even if you are blessed with “a very high IQ”, when you are as rich and powerful as the Trumps, you can easily lose perspective. People rarely say “no” to you. Your employees don’t tell you that your ideas are ridiculous because they don’t want to lose their jobs. Melania may not be the president, but she is in the same sycophantic bubble as her husband. It’s possible she just thought she could hold a press conference and command all us plebs to stop talking about her, and we would immediately obey.

It's hard to top The Onion's take on this: "Melania Trump Slams Baseless Reports Linking Her To Wrong Wealthy Pedophile".


US Congressman and recent top contender to be the next governor of California Eric Swalwell has been accused of sexual misconduct by at least four women so far. He has denied the accusations, but a Democrat can't ride something like this out the way Republicans can. He has suspended his campaign for governor, and I'll be surprised if he hangs on to the House seat.

I'm always amazed by candidates who imagine something like this won't come out. How do you recruit people to spend two years or more trying to get you elected, when you know that something you've done could result in all their effort being wasted?


As Congress returns to work, there is still no plan to fund DHS, and Trump really wants action on the vote-suppressing SAVE Act.


The regime revealed plans for Trump's "arch of victory" monument, which is planned to be 250 feet tall. This motivated The Contrarian's Tim Dickinson to review all the things Trump wants to name after himself.

All this self-aggrandizement is futile. As soon as he's gone, everything he's done will be reversed. The Kennedy Center will be the Kennedy Center again. Trump class battleships will never be built. The White House ballroom will be repurposed and renamed.

As for the money he's planning to add his signature to, I think we can shame him out of it. You can get little stamping pads to add comments to currency. I think every Trump dollar should have "is America's worst president" added to it.

Remember what Conan O'Brien said at the Oscars: "Welcome back, we are coming to you live from the Has a Small Penis Theater! Let’s see him put his name in front of that."

and let's close with something far out

The Artemis II crew got some new views of the Earth and the Moon. Here we see how everything is relative: the Earth setting over the Moon looks tiny.