Monday, July 6, 2026

Unfit

A Prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

- the Declaration of Independence

This week's featured post is "Capitalism vs. Socialism? Get Serious."

Ongoing stories

  • Trump's assault on American democracy. Courts are blocking Trump's efforts to use the postal service to cheat in the midterms. He wants to force states to turn over their voter databases, and compile a federal list of eligible voters, so that only those voters could receive mail-in ballots. This plan would shift power over elections from the states to the federal government, contradicting the Constitution.
  • Climate change. Last week's European heat dome was answered this week by one covering the US east coast. World Weather Attribution assesses the (large) role climate change plays in these heat emergencies.
  • Iran. Is the Strait of Hormuz open? Sort of. Tanker traffic is picking up, but is nowhere near normal.
  • Ukraine. The two sides have very different strategies. Ukraine is targeting Russia's oil industry, which undermines both the Russian war effort and civilian morale. Russia is stepping up missile attacks on civilian targets. More Russian missiles are getting through because Trump stopped sending Patriot air-defense missiles to Ukraine.

This week's developments

This week everybody was talking about America's 250th birthday

This week has been a sad time for those of us who remember the 200th birthday in 1976. That was truly a national celebration. As Paul Krugman recalls, then we celebrated in spite of widespread pessimism about the state of the nation:

This sunniness may seem odd, given that the U.S. was troubled in many ways. We had just suffered a humiliating defeat in Vietnam. Our cities were a mess: New York had 1600 murders in 1976, more than 5 times the rate last year, and Times Square was an eyesore of drug addicts and porn shops. Oh, and the city had recently gone bankrupt.

But we celebrated together as a country. One reason was that President Ford -- who was facing a tough reelection race in the fall -- largely stayed out of the way. Whatever you thought about Ford made no difference. Have you ever watched New Years at Times Square on TV, or even gone there yourself? It's a party, not a referendum on the Mayor of New York. That's how the bicentennial was. Republicans and Democrats celebrated together, because we were all Americans.

But this year Trump had to be Trump: He made the 250th about himself, turned it into a grift, and screwed it all up. I've seldom seen the National Mall as empty as it has been during his Great American State Fair. It got so embarrassing that Fox News stopped broadcasting from the site.

Kevin Elliott posted on Bluesky:

The reason America as a whole is going to walk on by its 250th birthday with nary a thought about it is that it is profoundly embarrassed, ashamed, and angry at what we've allowed to happen to our country


Thinking about what we have to celebrate shines a spotlight on the whole right-wing effort to whitewash our history. Here's an inside look from Thomas Jefferson's Monticello mansion. For years, the staff went to considerable effort to present a rounded picture of Jefferson, which included Monticello's slaves (and particularly Sally Hemmings) in addition to all the evidence of Jefferson's genius. I saw it myself during this period and was impressed.

Then began the right-wing denunciations of Monticello "going woke", which resulted in the harassment of staff and ultimately turning over the museum's leadership.

Again and again, you will hear about how woke teachers want to make students "ashamed of their country". To me, this accusation is a confession: The people who make it are so ashamed of America that they have to cover up the nation's true history.

I think American history invites us to embrace complexity. Yes, Jefferson was a slaver who even enslaved the children he fathered on one of his slaves. That's just as bad as it sounds.

But Jefferson also wrote the Declaration of Independence, founded the University of Virginia, purchased the Louisiana Territory from France and sent Lewis and Clark out to explore it, started the Library of Congress, and had many other noteworthy accomplishments. He is sometimes put forward as the world's "last Renaissance man", who was up-to-date in all human knowledge before it began to splinter into specialties. JFK once quipped to a group of Nobel laureates he was hosting: "I think this is the most extraordinary collection of talent, of human knowledge, that has ever been gathered at the White House - with the possible exception of when Thomas Jefferson dined alone."

You don't have to choose between the hero-Jefferson and the villain-Jefferson, or between the Jefferson you admire and the Jefferson you despise. He was all of it.

American history is like that. We enslaved people and then fought a war that ended slavery. We saved Europe from Hitler while sending our own Japanese citizens to internment camps. We extended freedom further down the social ladder than any previous nation, but we still haven't finished the job.

We are one of history's great nations, not because we were founded by saints under God's special attention, but because we have never stopped struggling to overcome our flaws.

The struggle continues.


In contrast to Trump's ridiculous denunciation of "communism" as "the greatest threat to our country" (see the featured post), Saturday saw a march of masked White nationalists in the nation's capital. Patriot Front is a group that formed after the Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville in 2017, the one where Trump found "good people on both sides".

I suspect that if a similarly masked Black Power group marched, Trump would sic the National Guard on them. But White nationalists are on his side, so he will never acknowledge the threat they pose.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLoRgPbpKwY

The Declaration of Independence seems oddly relevant today, as Trump repeats the offenses of King George. Robert Reich brings the specifics.

and birthright citizenship

The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 against Trump's executive order refusing to recognize the citizenship of children born in the United States whose parents are undocumented. The three liberal justices (Kagan, Sotomayor, and Jackson) were joined by Chief Justice Roberts and Amy Coney Barrett in respecting the plain wording of the 14th Amendment.

All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.

The Trump regime has tried to make a loophole out of "subject to the jurisdiction thereof", and three justices (Alito, Thomas, and Gorsuch) were sufficiently craven to follow their master this far. But this phrase has always been interpreted as applying to children of foreign diplomats, and to Native American tribes before they were fully incorporated into the United States. There's a simple rule of thumb: Suppose an American law enforcement agency (town, state, or federal) wants to arrest you. Do they have to deal with some foreign government first? If so, then you are not fully "subject to the jurisdiction" of the United States.

Undocumented immigrants are subject to the jurisdiction of the United States. You can't round up people and put them in camps, and then claim they aren't subject to your jurisdiction.

Kavanaugh tried to have it both ways: He voted against the executive order but didn't find a constitutional right; instead, he based his judgment on immigration laws that Congress could repeal at any time.

I have a lot to say about this, but Atlantic's Adam Serwer has already said it: In 1898, an era of widespread lynchings, the same racist Supreme Court that created the separate-but-equal loophole for Jim Crow laws affirmed the plain text of the 14th Amendment 6-2. No one has challenged that ruling since, and it was not the least bit controversial until Trump's executive order. But now, four justices can't find a constitutional right here. We are one vote away, not just from a Republican Congress repealing birthright citizenship, but from Trump being allowed to define the Constitution however he wants.

Neither the text of the Constitution nor more than a century of precedent have proved a match for the partisan-motivated reasoning of several supposedly impartial right-wing justices, whose views on what the Constitution says shift with the ideological currents. ... Thomas observed in his dissent that “the President’s initiative generated a groundswell of new scholarship.” Indeed it did, to the extent that you can call it such. That some right-wing legal academics rushed to fabricate a justification for Trump’s goals is not to the credit of the scholarship or those scholars, nor to the justices who embraced them.

Serwer echoes what I wrote last week in "Immigration is about Race": that the goal here is a nation by and for White people, especially conservative White Christians. The objection

is not to birthright citizenship. It is to the idea that “all men are created equal.”

He also echoes what I wrote in 2014's "Not a Tea Party, a Confederate Party": When today's conservatives claim to be following the Founders, they are actually following slavery-advocate John Calhoun's misappropriation of the Founders.


One measure of how Republicans have changed during my lifetime is summed up by this quote from Ronald Reagan:

Since this is the last speech that I will give as President, I think it's fitting to leave one final thought, an observation about a country which I love. It was stated best in a letter I received not long ago. A man wrote me and said: ``You can go to live in France, but you cannot become a Frenchman. You can go to live in Germany or Turkey or Japan, but you cannot become a German, a Turk, or a Japanese. But anyone, from any corner of the Earth, can come to live in America and become an American."

and trans athletes

Predictably, the Supreme Court sided with West Virginia and Idaho against transgender athletes. The two states have enacted bans against trans girls and women in public schools participating in female sports leagues.

At this point in our cultural evolution, trans people, especially male-to-female transitions, still seem strange to most Americans, with a high ick-factor. That's why it's so hard to have a rational discussion about their lives and their rights. Many people don't want to hear about the challenges faced by actual trans people. They just get to "ick" and their brains shut down.

If you are old enough or from certain parts of the country, you may remember when gays and lesbians had a similar ick-factor. Two men holding hands or two women kissing could make large numbers of Americans feel physically nauseous. If you ever experienced that sense of nausea, it didn't even register as bigotry. They seemed to be the aggressors. They were making us feel ill.

What changed over the decades is that more and more gays and lesbians came out, and same-sex couples became a fact of everyday life. Gay men stopped being seen as some sinister underground trying to undermine Western civilization. They lived next door and had that garden you envied. The woman who was your ally at the PTA went home to a wife, not a husband.

It may seem hard to believe at the moment, but the same evolution of attitudes will happen with transfolk. You can see it already in the national debate: The people who want to persecute transfolk are talking about abstractions, while the people who defend trans rights are talking about people they know. Outrageous claims tend to fall apart when you try to apply them to a real person. Eventually, we'll all know somebody.

The column I wish everybody would read is "The Four Fallacies at the Heart of SCOTUS’ Decision on Trans Athletes" by George Theoharis, a Syracuse professor who has been a public school principal, teacher, and coach. His four fallacies are

  • trans youth are pretending to be trans
  • the harm of exclusion is acceptable
  • anti-trans bans protect girls
  • trans athletes create an urgent fairness crisis in school sports

Theoharis applies these fallacies to a trans athlete he actually knows, Cal. Cal is not "pretending" to be female in order to compete unfairly. Cal took drugs to avoid changes in puberty that would produce an unfair advantage. Her presence in a female locker room harms no one (beyond perhaps producing an occasional "ick" response). Athletes like her are not rewriting the record books or making it impossible for cisgender women to compete. If you ignore "ick", it's hard to find any harm at all that results from her participation. Conversely, it is easy to see the harm she would suffer from exclusion.

It's also easy to see the harm female athletes in general will suffer. These bans are about putting more restrictions on women, not freeing them from unfair competition.


What I find more trying than the underlying issue is the political case many are making: Democrats shouldn't criticize the Court's act of bigotry, because most Americans agree with it.

Arguments like this should disturb anybody whose rights might become unpopular at some point in the future. It's saying: "We don't have any principles. If your rights are violated, we'll have to take a poll before we decide whether to defend you."

It is undeniable that an avalanche of money ($215 million, by one estimate) was spent late in the 2024 campaign to push the slogan: "Kamala is for they/them, President Trump is for you." Harris never responded, and damage was done. Maybe that's why she's not president.

But I think never-take-an-unpopular-position is the wrong lesson to learn. It looks timid and unprincipled -- because it is.

Republicans don't behave that way. They have a long list of unpopular positions: tax cuts for billionaires, raising the retirement age, sending long-term residents with no criminal records to concentration camps, outlawing abortion, and so on. But does any Republican ever say: "We have to stop talking about abortion"?

The right lesson is to be ready to defend your positions, even if the majority disagrees with you. You have to stand by what you believe and refuse to act as if you are ashamed. 2028 hopefuls like Gavin Newsom may hedge their bets, but I think Illinois Governor J. B. Pritzker has it right:

I know there are transgender people right now, looking out at this world and wondering if anyone is going to stand up for their simple right to exist. Well, I am. We are. We will. And we want them to thrive.

I know that amidst the ongoing assault on our democratic institutions, it's easy for people to fall into despair about our democratic system. But I love this country too much not to fight for it.

and you also might be interested in ...

My need to stay on top of the national conversation causes me to subscribe to publications I don't necessarily recommend. I've been been a Washington Post subscriber for many years, but I've also been down on it ever since Amazon centi-billionaire Jeff Bezos started interfering directly in the paper's editorial positions, like when he blocked its endorsement of Kamala Harris. I watched him toady to Donald Trump at his inauguration, and make the sycophantic claim that second-term Trump is a more "disciplined" and "mature" version of first-term Trump. I have occasionally noted on this blog how the WaPo editorial page has turned into the voice of the billionaire agenda.

But Saturday I finally cancelled. Their editorial criticizing the Supreme Court for one of the few good things it did this term -- reading the plain text of the 14th Amendment and protecting birthright citizenship -- pushed me too far. (It didn't help that they then published a call to abolish the National Institute of Health.)

There's a free press in this country (at least for billionaires), and Bezos can print whatever he likes. But he can spend his own money on that. I have better things to do with mine.


Wednesday, Air Force Major Jason Watson stood on the Capitol steps in full uniform and denounced President Trump, calling for his impeachment, conviction and removal. He was arrested.

To the extent that mainstream media covered this event at all, it focused on the wrong thing. Yes, what Watson did politicized the military (as Pete Hegseth does every day), and is a violation of the Uniform Code of Military Justice. It is entirely appropriate that he be arrested and punished. (Hegseth is still at large.)

But this isn't a somebody-trying-to-get-away-with-something story, it's a civil-disobedience story. Watson knew he was breaking the rules and knew he'd pay a price for it. When officers came to arrest him, he did not run or fight.

The story is that Watson, a man who had made a career out of serving his country, is willing to pay the price of his actions. That's how much he believes in his message.


This insight about using AI in education rings true to me:

Cognitive load theory has told us since 1988 that the productive struggle — the moment a student has to reach, fail, and reach again — is exactly where learning happens. Vygotsky called it the zone of proximal development: not too hard, not too easy, the precise difficulty that requires a human to stretch.

What the causal evidence shows is that AI, deployed as a general-purpose answer machine, collapses that zone. Students feel better. They learn less. They enjoy the session and can’t recall it the next day.


Elon Musk can't handle the truth.

This particular episode started on June 21, when Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) called him out for gutting USAID, which "possibly sentenced to death" 4.5 million children around the world. Musk threw a fit on X -- it's easy to act out on a platform you control -- saying it was "time to sue this liar".

There is not even a single dead child! ... They cannot cite a single name of someone who died out of the ‘millions’ they falsely claim have died. Not a single name!

NYT columnist Nicholas Kristof has a long history of calling attention to the plight of the desperately poor, particularly in Africa. So he began giving Musk the names he asked for.

Jibia was a 10-year-old girl, ranking third out of 58 students in her fourth-grade class in Rwamwanja, Uganda. Aid cuts meant that the local clinic ran out of $2 bed nets to protect from mosquitoes, as well as anti-malaria medicines. Jibia died of malaria last July, her mother told me outside the family home. Medical records confirmed that, and health workers told me that she would have been fine without the aid cuts: Replacing her tattered bed net with a new one could have prevented malaria, and in any case drugs would have helped her to recover promptly.

Yamah Freeman hemorrhaged while pregnant with her third child in her village in Liberia. The United States had provided ambulances to the local hospital, but the aid cuts under Musk and President Trump meant that the ambulances had no fuel. The strongest young men in the village placed her on their shoulders and raced down the path toward town, shouting encouragement to her as they ran, but she bled to death along the way. Her parents and sister told me about this, and I visited her grave.

Achol Deng, 8, had been infected with H.I.V. at birth in South Sudan but had been kept alive by American-provided medicines costing just 12 cents a day. The dismantling of U.S.A.I.D. and the resulting chaos meant that she lost her caseworker and access to medicines, and soon died of an opportunistic infection, health workers told me.

"I could go on," he wrote. And then he challenged Musk:

Come with me on a reporting trip to South Sudan or Somalia or Mozambique. Meet starving children whose lives can be easily saved. Hold them. Look into their eyes. Talk to their terrified moms.

Musk seems unlikely to accept the challenge.

Musk replied with a multi-post tantrum, calling Kristof “utterly evil” and a “piece of shit and liar” who is “lying through his teeth.” He also called another researcher, Alonso Gurmendi, “a piece of shit who loves murder” after Gurmendi mentioned a 10-year-old child in South Sudan who died after being cut off from his HIV medication.


Trump is refusing to renew the trade agreement with Mexico and Canada, the USMCA. The agreement, which replaced the Clinton-era NAFTA, was promoted as a diplomatic triumph of the first Trump administration. The agreement does not automatically lapse now, but has to go through annual reviews, creating uncertainty for any company looking at long-term investments.


It's a bad time to be a Russian oil refinery.

and let's close with something messy

Lately I've been looking into wedding rituals, for reasons I'll explain in a couple months. In Hinduism there's a haldi ceremony that is held before a wedding. Friends and family assemble to smear the bride and groom with an orange tumeric-based paste. The photos make it look like fun, but I have my doubts.

Monday, June 29, 2026

Just Say No

If you don’t want to be prosecuted for crimes, don’t do crimes.

- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez,
responding to Republican fears of investigations by a future Democratic Congress

This week's featured post is "Immigration is about Race".

Ongoing stories

  • Trump's assault on American democracy. In Texas, people who engaged in some fairly normal protest mischief got sentenced to decades in prison because one guy shot at a cop.
  • Climate change. The European heat wave has caused 1300 excess deaths so far.
  • Iran War. It's very hard to tell what's going on. We have an agreement but we're still talking. We have a ceasefire but we're still shooting at each other.
  • Ukraine. Russian oil refineries keep burning. Russia has a fuel shortage now, in spite of being one of the biggest oil producers in the world. Maybe this war-of-choice wasn't such a good idea.

This week's developments

This week everybody was talking about the Supreme Court

The Court made several important decisions this week, all 6-3 votes by the conservative majority. I discuss the two immigration-related ones in the featured post. The bloodstained gavel is a reference to sending refugees back to Haiti and Syria, which the State Department says is unsafe. A third Alito opinion the same day threw out Hawaii's law requiring people to get permission from property owners to carry concealed weapons on their property.

The gun law had to be evaluated under that standards established in the the 2022 Bruen decision, the one requiring any gun restriction to be consistent with the history and traditions of gun laws in the US. No one really knows what that means, so in practice it turns into the Court's conservative majority cherry-picking the historical examples that justify the conclusion it wants.

Today's rulings just came out, so I haven't looked at them. It appears to be a more mixed bag, with Trump winning some cases and losing others. To be honest, this worries me. Roberts likes to orchestrate the release of rulings in order to give himself cover. If he's releasing some Trump losses today, I worry about what he has in store next.


The Texas Board of Education clearly understands that this Supreme Court will never enforce the separation of church and state against Christians. The Texas Tribune reports that an extensive list of Bible readings are now part of the K-12 curriculum. Meanwhile, the new standards cut back education about diversity and eliminate material that they think shines a negative light on US history.

They approved a lesson this week that requires students to learn about the Prophet Muhammad in the context of “brutal military campaigns against Jewish and Christian tribes, the normalization of slavery, and the taking of female captives as harem slaves.” 

“Let me be very clear: Islam is not a religion,” state Sen. Bob Hall, R-Edgewood, testified before the education board Monday. “It is a totalitarian theocracy, not unlike totalitarian systems of communism, Nazism and globalism.”

Asked if he had ever visited a Muslim-majority country, the senator responded no. 

If you live in Texas and are thinking about raising children, you might want to reconsider your choices.

and Democratic primaries in New York

The big news of Tuesday's Democratic primaries was the defeat of incumbent congressmen Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat, by challengers from the left backed by New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Mamdani backed five candidates in the primaries, and they all won. These results were widely trumpeted as advancing the Democratic Socialist wing of the Democratic Party.

Centrist Democrats (in the words of several headlines) "freaked out". James Carville said on a podcast that he couldn't be in the same party with some of the Mamdani candidates.

I’m done. I’m not in that fucking political party.

Conversely, Rep. Josh Gottheimer (NJ-5) wrote the Mamdani candidates out of his party.

Many of us believe, as I do, that if you're a socialist, you're not a Democrat.

I'm very disappointed in these reactions. I'm a blue-no-matter-who Democrat, and I'm going to stay that way as long as the Republican Party represents fascism. For the last decade, maybe even as far back as the 2000 presidential race (where Ralph Nader's voters could have tipped the election to Al Gore), I have argued that progressive voters should line up behind moderate Democrats who win the primaries. If you can't win the Democratic primary, I said, you can't win the general election. The way to get the progressive candidates you want is to win in the primaries, not to sabotage the moderate Democrats who do.

Well, now progressives are winning primaries in New York and a few other places. This is the way the game is played. The way to change the party is to win primaries.

What's disturbing in the Carville/Gottheimer response is the attitude of entitlement. The Democratic Party belongs to them, because it just does. Democratic voters have no say in the matter. Rebecca Solnit writes:

It's weird the way the Democratic alleged leadership (Jeffries too) think that the party is a club with rules rather than something the voters choose. It's….undemocratic.

It would be one thing if the Democratic Party had a clear philosophical definition, the way that the Republican Party of the 1850s was the anti-slavery party. But one common complaint about the Party in the current era is that it lacks definition. I don't see any basis for saying that socialists can't be Democrats.

The Party establishment has made several large mistakes in the last few years. Obama let the big bankers off the hook after the Great Recession of 2008. Biden uncritically kept feeding weapons into the Israeli war machine as it committed genocide in Gaza. Maybe a few others leap to your mind.

Even at its best, the Democratic establishment drifts into nostalgia about the Obama years, as if America would be fine if we could just undo what Trump has done to the country. But Trump rose to power because a lot of Americans already felt left behind. I agree that I'd rather have Obama back than stick with Trump, but it's not like that was some kind of golden age.

There has to be a reckoning. Leaders who backed those mistakes need to make their case to the voters and face judgment. They aren't entitled to keep their jobs just because.

and Tulsi Gabbard

Last Sunday, WaPo published an expose about Tulsi Gabbard. In particular, it focused on the Hare Krishna group she was raised in and the influence its leader, Chris Butler, may have had on her while she was in Congress and possibly while she was Director of National Intelligence.

I've never been much of a fan of Tulsi Gabbard, either when she was progressive Democrat or a MAGA Republican. But I'm not inclined to pile on to this story, for a number of reasons: First, the accusations in the story are not that extreme; it always seems to be building up to something it never delivers. For many years, some anonymous emailer who seems to be Butler gave Gabbard detailed political advice, including what positions to take and how to defend them. She seems to have taken much of that advice. But WaPo has no evidence, for example, that Gabbard ever discussed classified information with Butler, or that she otherwise abused the power of her various offices for his benefit. Gabbard just had a religious leader whose guidance she took very seriously.

And that brings me to the second reason I'm playing this down: In political stories concerning religion, strangeness often gets misinterpreted as danger. When Barack Obama's pastor Jeremiah Wright became in issue in the 2008 campaign, clips of Wright's sermons went viral. To people whose image of church came from mainline White denominations, Wright's speaking style seemed scary, even though it was perfectly normal in Black churches.

Hare Krishna is strange to many Americans, so the Gabbard/Butler connection seems suspicious in a way that a similarly close connection between Marco Rubio and a Catholic priest would not.

Maybe there is a newsworthy scandal somewhere in the decades-long conversations Gabbard had with Butler. But I haven't seen it yet.

and you also might be interested in ...

To nobody's surprise, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said inflation was up in May, to 4.1% year-over-year. Even excluding food and energy (i.e., the more volatile parts of the index), it was up 3.4%. The only time since the 1980s that it was higher were 2021 and 2022, when Covid interrupted supply chains.


It's sad that Trump has made America's 250th birthday center on himself rather than the country. He undercut the bipartisan America 250 planning committee by creating his own Freedom 250. He opened Freedom 250 with a UFC cage match on his own birthday, then kicked off his Great American State Fair by giving a political speech.

The State Fair itself has become a sad affair, with mostly red states represented and no crowds worth mentioning. The concert fell apart as artists realized they were contributing to Trump's greater glory.

The Duckpin blog describes how the GASF devolved from something that sounded kind of fun to its current manifestation. Originally it was going to be on the Iowa State Fairgrounds. Then it was going to move from state to state, eventually reaching the National Mall like a musical arriving on Broadway. Then just the National Mall part of the idea survived.

When Trump did kick it off Wednesday night, only about 1000 people showed up, and many of them left while Trump was still speaking. So he lied about it and claimed 45000 people instead.

It didn't have to be this way. A president with less ego, like Gerald Ford in 1976 or an alternate-timeline President Harris today, could have stayed out of the way and let the country celebrate itself. There might be a real festival happening, with a concert lineup similar to what President Obama arranged to open his presidential center in Chicago on Juneteenth.

Instead, we're looking at each other and wondering how long the country can go on this way. How much past 250 will "freedom" survive, if it's still surviving now?


Pete Buttigieg had to endure being separated from his children for 24 hours because someone called in a false complaint to child protective services.

and let's close with something

One of the more whimsical YouTube channels is the musical "There I Ruined It", which promises to "lovingly destroy your favorite songs". In this selection, a new country-and-western song is constructed out of 50 country songs that all mention "cold beer".

Monday, June 22, 2026

Shared Values

These are the values and traditions I believe in, and they are not Republican or Democratic values. They’re American values we can all share.

- Barack Obama, opening the Obama Center Friday

This week's featured post is "Story Games".

Ongoing stories

  • Trump's assault on American democracy. The attack on California's elections as "fraud" are a preview of what we'll see when Trump's party gets pounded in the fall elections. The charges are a clear example of "truthiness". No one has any evidence of fraud, but the charges just feel right to the MAGA faithful. "It’s impossible to prove, but I think everybody knows instinctively, something is wrong here," says Speaker Johnson.
  • Climate change. The Trump regime continues to pay money to cancel wind-power projects. The total bill has reached $2.5 billion. It's hard to imagine a more wrong-headed policy.
  • Iran War. For months commentators have been saying that Trump was losing the war. The agreement he signed to end the war proves he did. Now we get to see whether the US can control Israel and Iran can control Hezbollah, because the Lebanon front is key to maintaining the ceasefire.
  • Ukraine. The war continues to shift in Ukraine's favor. The video below of the roof flying off of a Moscow oil refinery is striking. Putin's war has followed him home.

This week's developments

This week everybody was talking about Trump's Versailles Agreement

The full text of the US/Iran memorandum of understanding finally came out. I don't know what's more striking: What a bad deal this is for the United States, or how many people are surprised it came out this way. What did they think was going to happen? The phrase that springs to mind is: Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

Pentagon simulations had consistently demonstrated two reasons for avoiding a war with Iran:

  • Air power by itself won't topple the theocracy.
  • When Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, we have no effective answer short of a costly land invasion or nuclear war.

We've now had four months to watch those two obvious truths play out. Sure, we can destroy a lot of Iranian stuff and kill a lot of their people, while using up a lot of weaponry it will take years for us to replace. But no one in the Trump regime was ever able to explain how destruction and killing by itself could lead to some positive outcome for the US. Wednesday,

Trump said that “the alternative would be a worldwide depression”, arguing that if he had not struck a deal, “the strait [of Hormuz] would never have been opened."

Of course the Strait was open before Trump attacked, so maybe he could have thought about worldwide depression then. But he didn't, so he ended up making a number of concessions to Iran in order get it open again. Avoiding a bad outcome is an explanation for why you sign a bad deal, not something to crow about as an accomplishment.


Is the Strait of Hormuz open now? Kinda-sorta. Some ships are getting through, but the traffic is limited.


If you want to mix some laughter into your tears, watch British pseudo-journalist Jonathan Pie recount the course of the war.


For an example of the kind of military cluelessness that got us into this war, look at WaPo columnist Marc Thiessen's reaction to the Versailles agreement. He thinks Trump had achieved a "historic victory" on the battlefield, which the peace agreement mysteriously screws up.

What victory is that? Well, we destroyed things and killed people. And if we'd just kept doing that for two more weeks we wouldn't need an agreement at all.

I have been clear about my view from the start: Trump would be better off ending the war without a deal, with a final 10-to-14-day bombing campaign that completes the destruction of Iran’s military capabilities — and then declaring victory, ending combat operations and launching a covert effort to arm the Iranian people and help them overthrow the regime in time.

Where does that 10-14-day estimate come from? From "the target list [Admiral Cooper] was assigned at the start of Operation Epic Fury".

Yep, that's how war works: You make a target list before the shooting starts, and when you finish it you've won. Easy-peasy. Why didn't anybody think to do that in Vietnam or Afghanistan or Iraq?

and Obama's new library/museum

When an ex-president who is widely respected and admired throws a party, people show up. Friday, on Juneteenth, the Obama Presidential Center opened in Chicago. Every living president other than Trump was there, along with celebrities like Oprah Winfrey, Steven Spielberg, Tom Hanks, Stephen Colbert, and Dwayne Wade.

The musical line-up put Trump's Freedom 250 effort to shame: Bruce Springsteen, Stevie Wonder, Common, Christina Aguilera, John Legend, Bono, and others. But the highlight was President Obama himself, who can still give a great speech:

[T]he exhibits here focus not just on policies, but on the shared values that make democracy possible, a belief in the intrinsic dignity and worth of all people, and that no one is above the law or beneath its protection, a belief in checks and balances in our government and an accountability that comes with an independent judiciary and a robust, free press. A belief that our military and law enforcement owe allegiance not to any president or political party, but to the people and our Constitution.

A belief in the peaceful transfer of power after the people have spoken in fair and free elections, recognizing that in a large, complicated society like ours, no group or faction gets its way 100% of the time. And a belief that qualities of character, honesty, integrity, kindness, compassion, a sense of duty and honor, those things matter in our public dealings, just as they do in our private lives.

These are the values and traditions I believe in, and they are not Republican or Democratic values. They’re American values we can all share.

The word "Trump" did not appear in his text. It didn't have to.

and masculinity

The combination of the UFC bout on the White House lawn, a match winner telling an outrageous lie about Michelle Obama (who wasn't there and had nothing to do with the event), and neither the White House nor any of the sponsoring corporations making any statement about it afterward -- it started a lot of people writing about how the MAGA movement has distorted and corrupted the notion of masculinity. Mitch Jackson comments:

Here is the product Trump and his supporters are selling. Be loud. Be cruel and a male chauvinist. Racism is fine. Mock the weak. Call people names. Shout down anyone who corrects you. Repeat whatever Fox News told you this morning as gospel, even when you know nothing about the subject. Wrap all of it in a red hat and call it manhood. ...

Here is what the Trump manosphere salesmen do not want you to know. A man stands tall and tells the truth even when the truth costs him. A man keeps his word. A man protects the people who have no one else to protect them, the kid getting bullied, the worker getting cheated, the stranger getting hounded by a mob. A man stays calm when calm is hard. A man extends his hand to the person everyone else wrote off. Compassion is strength. Empathy is strength. Owning your mistakes out loud is strength. Shouting the loudest in the room has never once made anyone a man. Name calling is the move of a coward who ran out of arguments.

It especially burns me to hear the MAGA imitation of a man called a "cowboy". I grew up watching westerns on TV, and Mitch Jackson is describing the heroes of those westerns. Ben Cartwright, Matt Dillon -- they were the kind of men Jackson is describing. They were nothing at all like Donald Trump.


Here's a question: If, as right-wing ideology insists, there are only two genders, established by God and unalterably built into our bodies -- then why does masculinity require a performance like this? Can't MAGA males just be men? Why do they have to go to great lengths to perform their masculinity?

But if, on the other hand, gender is at least partly a performance, that opens up a lot of interesting discussions and possibilities.


Another example of MAGA "masculinity": Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is a right-wing leader who had been one of Trump's few allies in Europe. Recently there's been some friction between them after Trump started attacking Pope Leo. (Popes tend to be popular in Italy -- who knew?)

She's also a comparatively young and good-looking female head-of-state who stands out in a graybeard meeting like the recent G-7 in France. So of course Trump had to comment to an Italian TV interviewer about how Meloni "begged" to have her picture taken with him, as (no doubt) all good-looking younger women beg when overwhelmed by his manly presence.

She’s probably happy I talked to her. I didn’t have to talk to her. She begged me to take a picture with her. She wanted a picture with me so badly. I wouldn’t have taken it, but I felt sorry for her.

Meloni, and apparently all of Italy, took offense at this comment. The Italian foreign minister cancelled a trip to the US. Meloni said that Trump had "fabricated" the interaction and said "Italy and I do not beg."

Trump make something up? Heaven forefend. Just the other day, someone said to him "Sir, you are so honest. You never invent conversations that didn't happen." But I think Meloni should count her blessings. At least he didn't grab her by the pussy.

and the reflecting pool

This is the kind of trivial thing I usually ignore. The $14-or-so million Trump spent to repaint the bottom of the Lincoln Memorial reflecting pool isn't significant in any fiscal way, and the resulting mess isn't something I walk past on any regular basis. Even the fact that the job was done on a no-bid contract awarded to somebody Trump had hired at one of his clubs -- it's barely a drop in the bucket of Trump regime corruption.

But the series of incompetent moves -- the huge cost overrun, not understanding the biology of algae, awarding the no-bid clean-up contract to another crony, dumping hydrogen peroxide into the pool to kill the algae without realizing it might cause the new layer of paint to peel up, and then blaming all his failures on "vandals" -- it's just too typical of the whole regime. Trump ignores expert opinion, pats himself on the back for his brilliant solution, siphons taxpayers' money off to insiders, and then blames somebody else when it all goes wrong.

Like the Iran War, in other words. Max Boot comments:

I’m sure Trump will catch the vandals desecrating the Reflecting Pool just about the time that Captain Queeg catches the thieves who absconded with his strawberries.

Sadly, though, law enforcement in the capital now serves the Mad King's fantasies. People are being arrested for vandalizing the pool, including an ex-Olympian who stopped by in the middle of his morning bike ride. Prediction: None of these cases will go to trial. Either grand juries will refuse to indict or judges will throw the charges out for lack of evidence.

but I want you to read an essay

"Winning the Story Game" by A. R. Moxon. I discuss it in the featured post.

and you also might be interested in ...

Most stunning video of the week: During a massive Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow Thursday, the city's largest oil refinery literally flips its lid. The roof is blown off and turns over in the air. Later, it turned out that the refinery wasn't hit by a drone, but by a misfired Russian anti-drone missile.


The anti-ICE protests outside Delaney Hall in New Jersey are continuing. The latest: video of a protester getting hit by a car.


The $400 million bribe Trump took from the Qatari royal family is now ready for service as Air Force One.


Sci-fi TV shows like "For All Mankind" sometimes feature nuclear-powered rockets. Russia has one now, but it's "wildly expensive and very dangerous".


Since the Supreme Court reversed Roe v Wade, the number of abortions nationwide has nearly doubled. Nobody knows for sure why, but one possibility is that women in remote areas did not realize before that they could get abortion pills through the mail. NPR reports that even if telehealth clinics are banned from sending mifepristone through the mail, the companion drug misoprostol will work by itself, but with more discomfort.

I'll repeat something I've pointed out before: Christian abortion opponents can stretch certain Bible verses to claim that the prophets would have banned surgical abortion if they'd known about it. But drugs to induce miscarriage are as old as time, and the Bible does not mention them. Mifepristone and misoprostol are just more effective modern versions of folk remedies that go back to the Egyptians.


Paul Waldman asks why Trump's increasing mental and physical infirmity isn't being covered the same way Biden's was.

While there are occasional articles analyzing Trump’s aging, the mainstream media — especially the most important agenda-setting outlets like the New York Times, the Washington Post, and the Wall Street Journal — treated Biden’s age as one of the most important stories in politics, a four-alarm fire that demanded every ounce of attention they could give it. ... There’s no way to know for sure [how age has affected Trump's judgment]. But the nature of Trump’s personalist presidency, in which the entire government is organized around turning his whims into reality and the barest hint of dissent is swiftly punished, makes the question of his age even more important than it was with Biden, who was surrounded by competent people who could run the government even when the president was less engaged than he ought to have been.


Ta-Nehisi Coates' article in Vanity Fair is headlined: "Did Kamala Harris’s Silence on Gaza Cost Her the White House?", but it's also a meditation on the long-standing American conflict between democracy and human rights at home vs. empire abroad.

Gaza is not a betrayal of American democratic tradition but an expression of an American imperial tradition.

Coates describes "survivalist democracy", when the lesser evil of a leader who protects many groups within America allows many Americans to ignore brutality against the groups left out.


So Georgia won't be redistricting to kill its majority-Black districts. At least not this year.


Using solar panels to create needed shade always seemed like a no-brainer to me. Now California has a pilot project to cover its canals with solar panel canopies to avoid evaporation while generating electricity. Next we need to do big retail parking lots.


UCLA Professor of Medicine Robert B. Shpiner pulls together a bunch of Trump initiatives that don't look nearly so ominous when you see them one-by-one.

  • The schedule of newborn vaccinations has been cut back from 17 to 11. One of the missing vaccines is hepatitis B, a disease which turns chronic in 9 out of 10 infants who catch it.
  • The monthly food stamp fruit-and-vegetable benefit for small children has been cut from $26 to $10.
  • About four million people are being pushed off food stamps, many of them parents.
  • Two million fewer children are covered by Medicaid or CHIP than were at the end of the Biden administration.
  • A program that bought locally-grown produce for school lunches has been cancelled.
  • Enforcement of the law guaranteeing an education to children with disabilities has been moved from the Department of Education to the Department of Justice.
  • The federal government is no longer gathering data that might show the effects of these changes.

He concludes: "I’ve never seen the US harm its children this deliberately."


Pete Hegseth cancelled the Pentagon's requirement for flu vaccines. Now there's been a flu outbreak at Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio. Over 220 cases have been reported so far.

The military forces people to live in close quarters that facilitate the spread of disease. Such diseases are often have military significance. The Plague of Justinian in the sixth century (an early version of the Black Death of the Middle Ages) put a stop to the Byzantine Empire's attempt to reconquer the western territories that had been lost after the fall of Rome.

Requiring vaccines is just military good sense.

and let's close with something twisted

Occasionally I've managed to glimpse a hummingbird before it flitted away. But my eye has never been sharp enough to see one's extended tongue.

Monday, June 15, 2026

Pacts

guy has a trillion dollars, 0 friends, and has never landed a joke. I know a pact with the devil when I see one.

- Amy (@lolennui.bsky.social)

This week's featured post is "What to make of Graham Platner".

Ongoing stories

  • Trump's assault on American democracy. Our rapidly declining empire has hit its bread-and-circuses phase. For the Mad King's birthday yesterday, we witnessed the corrupt spectacle of a UFC cage match on the White House lawn.
  • Climate change. You don't have to deny scientific data you never collect. So the Trump regime is dismantling our ocean sensors.
  • Iran war. An agreement was announced yesterday, but we don't have the text, and the most contentious issues were put off until the next round. If we're lucky, it will get us back to where we were before Trump launched his ill-fated war.
  • Ukraine. This week's update from Phillips O'Brien focuses on Ukraine's effort to cut Crimea off from Russia. If they succeed, Crimea becomes a drain on Russia's war effort rather than a strategic asset.

This week's developments

This week everybody was talking about the Iran agreement

After months of Trump claiming a deal was at hand and Iran saying no, some kind of agreement was announced yesterday and is supposed to take effect Friday. No specific text was released, so I can't tell you exactly what is in it. We just have to go on what various leaders are saying about it.

Apparently, the Strait of Hormuz will be open again, as it was before the US and Israel attacked Iran. The US will drop its blockade of Iranian ports, so Iran will be able to sell oil as it did before the attack. The US and Iran will be negotiating about the future of Iran's nuclear program and the fate of the Iranian assets frozen in the US-controlled banking system, as they were doing before the attack. The ceasefire will be extended 60 days and will include Israeli forces in Lebanon, which Israel may not accept.

The obvious question now is: What did we gain from launching this war? Trump and Hegseth have been claiming victory since the first day, but what did we win? Aren't we just back where we were before we got 15 of our own people and God knows how many Iranian civilians killed, spent hundreds of billions, depleted our stockpile of missiles and other weapons, cost American consumers billions at the gas pump, and disrupted the world economy?

Michael Sellers:

The right comparison is not between today and yesterday’s worst-case scenario. The right comparison is between today and the day before the war began.

And we may not even be back to where we started. There appear to be several points of possible misunderstanding, like this one:

[Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem] Gharibabadi said those negotiations [over Iran's nuclear program] would only begin once Iran can verify that the U.S. has complied with the current agreement, which he said included unfreezing Iranian assets and lifting the naval blockade. U.S. officials, however, said Iranian assets would not be unfrozen until Tehran had demonstrated compliance with the agreement.

Sellers lists the possible issues in the agreement, and offers practical tests for judging them. Example: "does Hormuz return to normal freedom of navigation, or does Iran emerge with a new coercive role over passage?"

Whatever the reality, Trump will spend the next several weeks claiming he got concessions that aren't in the agreement, in order to tell his base that his claims of victory weren't lies. Iran will not validate these claims, but we'll see if they will be content to let Trump do what he does. That would give the world 60 days of breathing space before reality must be faced again.

My best guess: Something like this agrement will eventually take effect, but first it will have to come apart a couple more times. Maybe Israel will scuttle it, or the "memorandum of understanding" will fail to reflect a mutual understanding of its terms. And maybe Trump will just blow it up when his MAGA base starts to accuse him of weakness.

Meanwhile, the global markets seem to be taking this agreement at face value. I've never been a commodities trader, but if I were, I'd be tempted to buy oil futures and wait for the first glitch. If this does all come apart, a true catastrophe looms: The world has been burning through its oil reserves, and the tanks seem to be a month or two from running dry.

and about symbolic milestones

So Elon Musk's net worth crossed $1 trillion (due to the SpaceX IPO I warned you to avoid last week). And after a bunch of legal flailing by Trump's puppet board, his name came off the Kennedy Center. (I think.)

Trump used his power under the Defense Production Act to put $700 million of your tax dollars behind the coal industry, which is doomed for economic reasons even if you ignore the environmental damage it does. In May, for the first month ever, the US used more solar energy (12.8% of total electricity use) than coal (12.2%). Remember when Republicans wanted the market rather than the government to sort out energy use?


Musk's trillionaire status has sparked debate about what our economic system rewards or doesn't reward. Exemplars of vast wealth are always controversial, but it seems to me that previous ones gave their fans more to work with than Musk has. If you drove a car, you understood what Henry Ford had done. John D. Rockefeller and Andrew Carnegie represented oil and steel, which anyone could appreciate.

Bill Gates exemplified the personal computer revolution (whether it would have happened without him or not). For better or worse, Jeff Bezos and Sam Walton changed the way we shopped.

But Musk? His fortune is based on dreams of a future that may never come to pass, or may be made real by a competitor rather than Musk himself: self-driving cars, humanoid robots, colonies on Mars. Tesla and Starlink are real, but so far they account for very small parts of the car or communications industries.

Paul Krugman elaborates:

But these achievements weren’t enough to make Musk the world’s richest man. His wealth has, instead, historically rested mainly on self-fulfilling faith — investors believing in Musk’s genius have piled into stocks in Musk-controlled companies, and the rising value of these companies has enhanced his reputation for genius.

We have a term for enterprises that look successful because they keep drawing in new investors and keep drawing in new investors because they look successful. They’re called Ponzi schemes. And Elon Musk is basically a human Ponzi scheme. ... Which brings me to my final point. The immense human Ponzi scheme that is Elon Musk will eventually collapse.

In a different post, Krugman compares our era to the Gilded Age.

So, are we living in a second Gilded Age? If only. We surpassed Gilded Age levels of income and wealth inequality decades ago. We’re now in an era of oligarchy in which the power of great wealth and the abuse of that power by a tiny elite eclipse anything we saw in the late 19th and early 20th century. And the super-wealthy themselves are far more lacking in redemptive qualities than their predecessors.

If you really enjoy seeing someone dunk on Musk, follow Will Lockett's substack. In particular, this post examines the one piece of SpaceX that is supposed to be profitable already: Starlink. But is it really profitable, or do those earnings come from an accounting game enabled by Trump's Big Beautiful Bill?


Then there's Musk's most serious downside: Current Affairs interviews Nicholas Enrich, who has a book out about the destruction of USAID during Musk's months as head of DOGE. And Musk was involved: He bragged about "feeding USAID into the wood chipper".

[USAID] was kind of the embodiment of American generosity overseas. We operated under a flag of people shaking hands that said "from the American people", but it wasn't just a charity organization. I think that that's it's really important. It was an implement of national security. It kept Americans safe from infectious diseases. You know, we had developed a global early warning system, so that countries could detect and respond to infectious diseases before they could potentially threaten us. We built partnerships over decades with countries that enhanced stability and increased American soft power around the world, that really allowed for Americans to thrive in a stable world order for over 60 years.

Enrich gives a few simple examples of threats to national security: When the Ebola outbreak started in Uganda, USAID wanted to screen passengers boarding international flights out, because "that's how you get an international catastrophe". The funding was denied. Clinical trials of drugs to fight currently drug-resistant tuberculosis were stopped, creating a risk of new TB strains resistant to those experimental drugs.

Enrich wasn't prepared for the level of ignorance he encountered from the DOGE people.

There was another political appointee who told me, when I was pushing to restart lifesaving Ebola activities, he told me just that Ebola is a scam.

The first signs of the unfolding disaster were

families that had spent all day walking to a clinic in Sudan—you know, with the USAID logo on it—expecting to get food and medical supplies, seeing that clinic ends up being shuttered and were then forced to go home and then make the heart-wrenching decision of which of their children to feed. And there were pregnant women who were unable to access emergency childbirth services because the ambulance service that provided them was cut off and they ended up perishing. These were just like the initial anecdotal experiences that we started to hear that have since expanded.

Now we're seeing conservative estimates show that 750,000 people have already died, most of those are children, and that's within the first year. And unfortunately, what we're learning is that really this is just the tip of the iceberg. It's what we're going to see in the next few years, where new babies who are born are no longer getting the immunizations we used to provide, babies are being born with HIV at high rates in some clinics, where just a year ago those rates were near zero. The impacts of this are going to—we're not going to see the full effects of them for four years. I mean, I honestly believe that when the dust settles on the Trump administration, his cuts to USAID will end up being a major part of his legacy, because of just how far-reaching those impacts really are.

The Lancet medical journal published a study anticipating the results from a global cut in official development aid (ODA).

Sudden and severe reductions in ODA funding could have catastrophic consequences, with a potential global death toll comparable to—or even exceeding—that of the COVID-19 pandemic. Even modest defunding that simply extends current downward trends is likely to lead to sharp increases in preventable adult and child mortality, potentially resulting in tens of millions of excess deaths in the coming years.

It's important to understand the full evil of Musk's actions. For decades, I've been hearing conservative rhetoric about how private aid should replace government aid. But not only does Musk (unlike Bill Gates or Warren Buffett) give essentially nothing from his vast wealth to help the world's least fortunate. (The Musk Foundation has focused on self-dealing with his businesses, and funding schools his children attended.) But he uses his wealth to buy political power, and then uses that power to prevent any help from reaching the poor.


Trump is being as petty as possible about taking his name off the Kennedy Center. Legal challenges went to the last minute, and then a 12-hour extension was granted. After the name came off, they left the tarp up so that no one can see the place where his name was taken down. The tarp serves no purpose but to avoid giving Trump's enemies the satisfaction of defeating him.

News articles about taking down Trump's name quote a lot of opinions about whether he deserves such an honor. The answer seems obvious to me, but it's an irrelevant point: Trump and his puppet board had no power to change the name of the Kennedy Center. Only Congress can do that.

This is typical of a lot of Trump's legal controversies. Whether what he wants to do is a good idea or not -- I usually think not -- he gets into trouble because he exceeds his legal powers. The tariffs are a prime example. Whether the US would benefit from higher tariffs is something reasonable people can argue about. But under the law, Trump had no power to impose his tariffs. The right argument to have there isn't against tariffs, but against dictatorship.

Consider this exchange in the court case about Trump destroying the East Wing of the White House and beginning to build his gilded ballroom. Trump's DoJ is arguing that courts have no power to intervene.

"If the government decides, very quickly, to bulldoze the Statue of Liberty," asked Judge Patricia Millett, "[if] the government moved too fast…nothing can be done?"

"I think that's right, yes," [DoJ attorney] Roth replied, which, according to ABC News, "sparked audible gasps in the courtroom."

Now, nothing in the Constitution commits the US government to maintaining the East Wing (or the Statue of Liberty). But under our system of government, such decisions aren't based on the whims of one man.

Republicans would recognize this truth immediately if the one man were a Democrat. President Obama was denounced (more than once) for putting his feet up on the Resolute Desk. ("The picture of Obama with his feet on the desk in the Oval Office shows that he has never been taught manners. That desk is history and should be treated with respect.") Imagine if he'd torn down a wing of the White House purely on his own authority.

and Graham Platner

See the featured post.

and Social Security

As if Republicans running for Congress this fall didn't face enough problems, Speaker Johnson just gave them one more: If he's still speaker after the elections, he has a plan for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid to be "adjusted and fixed".

We know what this means, because it's been a staple on the Right for decades: Any government spending that benefits people creates a budget problem. But there is infinitely much money available to pursue wars, cut billionaires' taxes, and glorify God-Emperor Trump.

In particular, a Heritage Foundation article from 2024 proposes to "fix" Social Security by raising the retirement age to 69 or 70, establishing a "more accurate" (i.e., less generous) inflation metric, and partially privatizing the program.

The ostensible reason to "fix" Social Security is that the SS trust fund will run out of money in the early 2030s. If no other funding is provided by Congress, benefits will be limited to the Social Security taxes that come in, necessitating cuts.

However, the trust fund has always been a bookkeeping device rather than anything real. As Paul Krugman explains, the real question is whether the country wants to keep funding its elders at this level, not whether it can afford to.

and a war crime

Almost since the beginning of the Iran War, Trump has been threatening to commit war crimes. Occasionally, people have debated whether something we've done in Iran is a war crime or not. Bombing the girls school, for example, would be a war crime if it had been done intentionally. Attacking bridges and power plants might be war crimes, if the intent was to destroy economic infrastructure rather than impede Iran's military.

Tuesday, all doubt was removed. After Trump unleashed another round of war-crime threats on Truth Social, this happened:

On the evening of June 9, the USA, with what seems to be intent, attacked two reservoirs and a water treatment facility in southern Iran. Almost immediately afterwards, water was cut off to about 20,000 Iranian civilians who live around the southern Iranian town of Sirik.

Why was this most likely a deliberate attack? Well, there seems to have been nothing nearby of military value and the destruction was precise.

When asked about this attack and the possibility that it was a war crime, Pete Hegseth offered no defense.

Well, it’s precisely the kind of disingenuous question that I’m used to from the media, impugning the motives of the folks on our side who are incredibly professional and incredibly effective.

and Trump's birthday

Yesterday Trump held a UFC cage match on the White House lawn. Not only was this garish and violent, it often turned partisan. Also, it was another example of Trump profiting off his office: He owns stock in the TKO Group, which sponsors UFC fights. And the White House was not the only federal property involved: Weigh-ins and other pre-match festivities took place at the Lincoln Memorial.

and you also might be interested in ...

Don Moynihan raises an interesting point about the Supreme Court's assault on Black representation in Congress. It really comes in two parts:

  • States can't intentionally create majority-minority districts because that violates the Court's "color-blind" interpretation of the Constitution.
  • States can gerrymander for partisan purposes, which in red states has the effect of eliminating majority-minority districts that might arise naturally, i.e., in urban areas with large minority populations.

Moynihan considers what would happen if both partisan and racial gerrymandering were unconstitutional.

By accepting partisan gerrymandering as a regrettable but inevitable part of American democracy, the courts made racial justifications, rather than broadly democratic justifications, the last basis for maintaining constraint on gerrymandering. So isolated, it became easier to eliminate this last line of defense.

Nothing about this was inevitable. Imagine an alternative scenario, where the courts decided that both racial considerations and partisan gerrymandering were unconstitutional. Commentators like Rubenfeld could still have trumpeted the end of “the racial districting game” but Black and Democratic voters would still have had a realistic chance at representation.

A new analysis at the New York Times by Nate Cohn and Eve Washington adds numbers to the debate. It makes clear how monumental the decision to accept partisan gerrymandering was to blocking a truly colorblind map.

A map that was organized more simply around the non-partisan values of natural geographic settings would preserve a similar number of Democratic and minority-leaning opportunities.

Video of a crime committed by one particular Sudanese asylum-seeker in Southhampton went viral and resulted in an anti-immigrant riot in Belfast. Wired examines the role a far-right youth group played in making the riots happen. The New Yorker has a longer, deeper article on how anti-immigrant politics is spreading in the UK and elsewhere.


Approaching the 10-year anniversary of the Brexit vote, the UK economy is clearly doing worse outside the EU than it would have done remaining inside.


One of the more controversial parts of FISA surveillance law is Section 702, which allows intelligence agencies to monitor the communications of certain foreign nationals, even when they communicate with Americans that the agencies are not supposed to spy on. Section 702 gets reauthorized from time to time, because it's been too controversial to make permanent.

The tricky point is what the agencies can do with their databases of collected information. Maybe the NSA (say) has no justification to surveil you, but it has your conversations with foreign nationals in its database. Can it search that database for your communications without a warrant, essentially spying on you via its spying on other people?

Anyway, the appointment of Trump attack dog Bill Pulte as acting DNI raised the profile of this issue, and Congress failed to renew the authority when it lapsed last week.


Japan is depopulating.

Laurie Garrett explains:

young men aren’t eager to marry, and Japanese women are more than happy to pursue life without them. Marriage rates continue to plummet, along with birth rates. This is less about policy initiatives the government might take than it is due to a wide gender gap in hopes, dreams, aspirations, concepts of family and cultural interests.

But of course, the US is developing similar gender gaps, and a similar (if less extreme) drop in births-per-woman.

Japan is not the exception – rather, it is the avant garde, the cutting edge, the leader the rest of us ought to pay close attention to as it struggles to find the right combination of humanity, gender equity, financing and social policy to care for its elders, encourage its young adults, bridge the political and economic gaps between men and women, and grow its children.

This is an issue conservatives recognize, but their approach is 180 degrees off. The decline in White reproduction is a key part of the Great Replacement conspiracy theory. The true part of the theory is that if our economy continues to create jobs and our people don't produce children to fill them, immigration is the obvious way to keep the wheels spinning. This will inevitably shift the racial demographics.

But the MAGA approach to increasing fertility is basically to roll the clock back, so that women have fewer choices in life and are essentially forced into motherhood. Garrett suggests another path: Change male culture so that men take more responsibility for children. If men and women see equivalent costs and rewards for raising children, their expectations will begin to align.


If you're wondering about the current legal situation around Trump's slush fund for the January 6 criminals, the best summary is here. Two courts are still wrestling with issues related to the fund, and the regime is claiming the courts' concerns are moot, because the fund isn't happening. At least one judge wants a written commitment from the Justice Department that the fund really is dead and won't be revived. We'll see if DoJ gives that commitment.


The Trump administration is dismantling the Ocean Observatories Initiative,

a $386 million network of more than 900 instruments funded by the U.S. government’s National Science Foundation (NSF), which has provided real-time data on the world’s oceans for more than a decade. The sensors are distributed across both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans to monitor coastal environments, marine ecosystems, and ocean currents that influence the global climate.

The decision to end OOI, described by the foundation as a “descoping,” will remove nearly all in-water infrastructure located off the states of Alaska, Washington, Oregon and North Carolina, and the Irminger Sea, an area between Iceland and Greenland. The OOI was designed as a 25-to-30-year project specifically to capture long-term climate signals, which scientists say require at least three decades of continuous data to be meaningfully detected. The network has achieved just 10 years of observations.

The simplest way to deny climate change is to refuse to gather data on it.

and let's close with something precious

"Rare photo of a mother wrench feeding her young. Breathtaking." - ScottH