Never underestimate a public school teacher.
- Tim Walz
This week's featured post is "The Convention That Ate Republicans' Lunch".
This week everybody was talking about the Democratic Convention
The featured post focuses on how the DNC reclaimed Reagan-era values that Republicans have stopped taking seriously or have let drift away from American reality: freedom, family, marriage, tradition, masculinity, and what makes someone American.
I know I mentioned this in that post, but it deserves a second plug: One standard element of a political convention is the roll call of the states as the delegates announce their votes. The DNC did it a little differently from the RNC.
The DNC turned roll call into a dance party, with each state choosing music appropriate to itself, like Lynyrd Skynyrd's "Sweet Home Alabama" or Illinois choosing Alan Parson's "Sirius", the walk-on music the Chicago Bulls use when they play in that same arena. My own state, Massachusetts, picked the Dropkick Murphy's "I’m Shipping Up to Boston". But Georgia stole the show by getting Atlanta's Lil Jon to perform his own "Turn Down for What".
One difference between the conventions the featured post didn't cover: The RNC's message centered on hero-worship: America is in terrible shape, but if we elect Donald Trump again, he will save us. The DNC was more of a pep rally for activists. Speaker after speaker urged the delegates (and by extension those watching at home) to "do something": volunteer for the campaign, send money, make sure your friends are registered to vote. Kamala Harris will not save us by herself; her campaign is the vehicle through which We the People will save ourselves and each other.
I've never seen condoms used for political advertising before.
Major media fact-checking during the conventions was somewhere between comical and infuriating.
If you're a person actually interested in the truth, the main thing you need to know about the Democratic Convention speakers is that they were far and away more truthful than the Republican speakers. Nothing at the DNC rivaled the big lies that form the scaffolding for MAGA policies: the "migrant crime wave", or that illegal immigrants are voting, or that other countries are emptying their jails and insane asylums to send their unwanted people to the US.
None of that is even remotely close to being true.
But both-sides-ism decrees that fact-checkers had to flag Democrats for something. So when Tim Walz said that "IVF and fertility treatments" are "personal for Gwen and I", USA Today had to point out that the Walzes' daughter Hope resulted from a different fertility treatment than IVF, as if IVF hadn't been the next option, and as if succeeding before reaching that point would give the Walzes less empathy with infertile couples who do need IVF. In short: Nothing Tim said was wrong or needed correction.
Or when Pete Buttigieg said that "crime was higher on [Trump's] watch", USA Today found it important to point out that not all crime rates were higher all the time. So the murder rate (which rose under Trump) continued rising for Biden's first year before falling to a level below where it was at the end of Trump's term.
And when Illinois Governor J. B. Pritzker said "Donald told us to inject bleach" as a Covid treatment, that was "misleading", because Trump only made that ridiculous suggestion as something scientists should waste their time investigating.
Bill Clinton said that since the end of the Cold War, 50 million American jobs have been created under Democratic administrations and only 1 million under Republican administrations. PBS rated that only "mostly true", because even though what Clinton said was exactly right, 1989 was a particularly fortuitous time to measure from. Starting the clock running somewhere else might give less lop-sided results.
Summing up: While Republicans told big whopping lies that they can't justify their policies without, Democrats sometimes failed to include all the footnotes a journal article would require.
It seems like a conscientious fact-checker would want to note that distinction. But AP's headlines looked like this:
Good lines from the convention that I haven't found another place for. D. L. Hughley:
Republicans for Kamala? I guess Donald Trump will finally know what it's like when you get left for a younger woman.
As a computer science major, I am so impressed by how large this AI-generated crowd looks tonight.
Donald Trump is like an old boyfriend who you broke up with, but he just won't go away. Bro, we broke up with you for a reason.
JD Vance said 'if you don't have kids you have no physical commitment to the future of this country.' When I deployed to Afghanistan, I didn't have kids then. Many of the men and women with me didn't either. But let me tell you, our commitment to the future of this country was pretty damn physical.
We believe that a patient's room is too small and cramped for space for a woman, her doctor, and the United States government. That's too many people in the room.
and RFK Jr. endorsing Trump
Friday, Robert Kennedy Jr. announced that he was suspending his campaign and supporting Donald Trump.
No one should be surprised by this, because RFK Jr.'s campaign was a Trump operation from the start. The Kennedy name was supposed to divide the Democratic vote, which is why RFK Jr.'s campaign was funded by pro-Trump donors and pushed by pro-Trump media. But recent polls had begun to show Kennedy pulling more votes from Trump than from Harris, so it was time to pull the plug.
On paper, this looks to favor Trump, but it also ratifies Harris/Walz framing: Trump, Vance, and Kennedy are all weird, so of course they would wind up together.
I've seen lots of triumphal posting by Trumpists, claiming that this is a big development that nails down Trump's election. But Nate Silver is unconvinced. His model has Harris up 4% with her convention bounce just starting to show up in the data. Her margin drops about 0.3% when Kennedy is taken out.
and the horse race
I'm not going to pay much attention this week, because if Kamala gets a bounce out of the convention, it won't show up fully in the polls until at least next week. But generally, her slow and steady momentum has continued. 538's polling average has her up by 3.4%, which is close to where she needs to be to overcome the Republican advantage built into the Electoral College.
But there is reason to expect a convention bounce. Here, a CNN reporter is stunned that 6 of the 8 undecided voters he talked to in November have decided for Harris. One has decided for Trump and one still isn't planning to vote.
and you also might be interested in ...
Maybe "Communist" and "Marxist" don't mean what Trumpists think they mean.
and let's close with something cold-blooded
OK, I've heard of support dogs, cats, and even monkeys. But a support gator? I'm picturing a bumper sticker: My support animal can eat your support animal.
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