Monday, November 27, 2023

Advantages and Disadvantages

The great tactical disadvantage for all those of us who will fight for democracy is that you have one tool to do it: democracy. You must use democratic means to defeat anti-democratic forces. And that can feel like fighting with one hand tied behind your back. But you're either a democrat or you're not.

- Rachel Maddow

This week's featured post is "The Remarkable Biden Economy".

This week everybody was talking about the hostage release in Gaza

The long-rumored ceasefire-with-prisoner-exchange deal between Israel and Hamas took effect Friday. The ceasefire started then and was supposed to last four days. Talks are underway to extend that period and perhaps free more hostages. Otherwise, fighting will resume tomorrow.

Any agreement that results in real actions is a good sign: The two sides have ways to talk to each other, and are building trust that agreements made can be carried out. But there's still a long, long way to go. (Late-breaking reports say the truce will last another two days.)

and the Dutch election

Anti-Islam and anti-EU politician Geert Wilders led his Party for Freedom to a surprisingly good showing in the parliamentary elections Wednesday. Still far from a majority, his 35 seats is the most by any individual party in the 150-seat parliament. He will get the first chance to put together a majority coalition.

I'm not sure the WaPo is correct in interpreting this result as showing a rising right-wing momentum in Europe, especially given the Polish election results in October. But it bears watching.

but we should talk more about how Trump gets covered

Major media still seems to be having a hard time figuring out how to cover Trump. In 2015, he was a man-bites-dog story who clearly was never going to be president anyway, so he got millions and millions of dollars worth of free media coverage. Entire Trump speeches were broadcast live on CNN, and quotes the media determined to be "gaffes" got repeated again and again.

Eventually, outlets noticed that they had become vehicles for disinformation. Unlike the typical presidential candidate, Trump was not embarrassed to be caught in a lie, and would keep repeating the lie long after fact-checkers had debunked it. In fact, he had more persistence than the fact-checkers, so he would keep lying, while fact-checkers found it pointless to keep repeating the same debunking columns. This led WaPo's Glenn Kessler to invent the "bottomless Pinocchio":

The bar for the Bottomless Pinocchio is high: The claims must have received three or four Pinocchios from The Fact Checker, and they must have been repeated at least 20 times. Twenty is a sufficiently robust number that there can be no question the politician is aware that his or her facts are wrong.

Similarly, Trump's "gaffes" were not the usual sort of political misstatements: slips of the tongue or half-truths that got stretched to the point of hyperbole, like Hillary Clinton's harrowing tale of landing in Bosnia under sniper fire. Trump wasn't misspeaking, he was intentionally trolling; he said outrageous things strategically, to get attention and change the direction of the national conversation. (You can see that happening now with his trials. Are the news headlines about the damning and unanswerable evidence of his criminality? Of course not. They're about some attack on a court official or witness or prosecutor that is likely to get somebody killed eventually.)

What many outlets came down to was a non-amplification policy: Let Trump say whatever he wants, and if it's too outrageous we just won't pay attention. At a surface level that made sense: If he is saying these things to manipulate our attention, ignore him.

Now, though, we're seeing the downside of that policy as well: For years, right-wing politicians have used "dog whistles", turns of phrase that may sound innocuous to the average voter, but communicate a more sinister message to the politician's extremist base. So, for example, you didn't need to say openly racist things about Black people; if you simply talked about "the inner city", your racist supporters would get your message.

Non-amplification, though, lets Trump get all the benefits of a dog whistle while opening saying what he means. For example, when he called his political enemies "vermin" a couple weeks ago, the major news outlets didn't cover it right away. So his followers on Truth Social got the message, but the people he was implicitly threatening to exterminate didn't. Likewise, his sharing of a fan's fantasy of performing a "citizen's arrest" on NY AG Letitia James and Judge Arthur Engoron escaped immediate national attention.

I don't know why this is so hard: You don't give Trump a live microphone to pass on disinformation. You never quote him without an immediate fact-check. But you do cover the fact of him making racist, violent, or authoritarian remarks.


Five co-authors at Columbia Journalism Review researched similar issues, and found that almost none of the major-outlet coverage of politics informed readers/viewers about the policy issues at stake.

Instead, articles speculated about candidates and discussed where voter bases were leaning.

The authors also found a major difference between the choices made on the front pages of The New York Times as opposed to The Washington Post: In the lead-up to the 2022 elections, The Times consistently emphasized issues that favored Republican narratives, while the Post was more balanced.

Exit polls indicated that Democrats cared most about abortion and gun policy; crime, inflation, and immigration were top of mind for Republicans. In the Times, Republican-favored topics accounted for thirty-seven articles, while Democratic topics accounted for just seven. In the Post, Republican topics were the focus of twenty articles and Democratic topics accounted for fifteen—a much more balanced showing. In the final days before the election, we noticed that the Times, in particular, hit a drumbeat of fear about the economy—the worries of voters, exploitation by companies, and anxieties related to the Federal Reserve—as well as crime. Data buried within articles occasionally refuted the fear-based premise of a piece. Still, by discussing how much people were concerned about inflation and crime—and reporting in those stories that Republicans benefited from a sense of alarm—the Times suggested that inflation and crime were historically bad (they were not) and that Republicans had solutions to offer (they did not).

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Heather Cox Richardson reminds us of the true origin of Thanksgiving: The mythic "first Thanksgiving" of Native Americans and Pilgrims had been long forgotten when it resurfaced in 1841, and inspired a nation torn by the slavery question to imagine reconciliation. A Thanksgiving holiday did not become official until President Lincoln began proclaiming days of thanksgiving during the Civil War.


Cory Doctorow is one of the most interesting voices to listen to about technology and its influence on society. In this article, he talks about why the internet keeps getting less useful and more annoying, which he labels "the Great Enshittening". X/Twitter is an obvious case in point, but it's far from the only example.

The problem, he says, is structural change, not that tech people suddenly became villains.

Tech has also always included people who wanted to enshittify the internet – to transfer value from the internet’s users to themselves. The wide-open internet, defined by open standards and open protocols, confounded those people. Any gains they stood to make from making a service you loved worse had to be offset against the losses they’d suffer when users went elsewhere.

It follows, then, that as it got harder for users to leave these services, it got easier to abuse users.

In other words, inside tech companies there have always been arguments between people who want to extract more value from their users and people who want to give their users better service. But the argument against exploiting users was "if we do that, they'll leave".

In today's internet, though, it gets harder and harder to leave an abusive platform for a less abusive one. (I'm still using X, for example, even as I experiment with alternatives.) So "if we do that, users will leave" isn't as persuasive an argument as it used to be.


HuffPost has an article about the work Speaker Mike Johnson used to do as an attorney for the Alliance Defense Fund, a group trying to get the courts to recognize special rights for Christians. The article quotes Johnson making a point he still makes, claiming that "separation of church and state" is not only a "misunderstood" concept, but that when Thomas Jefferson originally used the phrase, he didn't really mean what we think.

What he was explaining is they did not want the government to encroach upon the church, not that they didn’t want principles of faith to have influence on our public life.

Johnson is counting on people not looking up the letter where Jefferson coined the phrase. Here's the key paragraph.

Believing with you that religion is a matter which lies solely between Man & his God, that he owes account to none other for his faith or his worship, that the legitimate powers of government reach actions only, & not opinions, I contemplate with sovereign reverence that act of the whole American people which declared that their legislature should "make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof," thus building a wall of separation between Church & State. Adhering to this expression of the supreme will of the nation in behalf of the rights of conscience, I shall see with sincere satisfaction the progress of those sentiments which tend to restore to man all his natural rights, convinced he has no natural right in opposition to his social duties. [italics added]

The obvious corollary to Jefferson's letter is that government can restrict actions, even if you justify your actions with some religious belief. So it's fine if you want to believe that gays or transfolk are immoral, but if you want to turn same-sex couples away from your wedding-cake shop, that's an action, not an opinion.


This week in When Bad Things Happen to Bad People: Derek Chauvin, the police officer convicted of murdering George Floyd, got stabbed in prison. And Kyle Rittenhouse, who became a right-wing hero after killing two people and shooting a third during the unrest following a police shooting in Kenosha, Wisconsin, is now broke, according to his lawyer.

He is working, he is trying to support himself. Everybody thinks that Kyle got so much money from this. Whatever money he did get is gone.

Not to worry, though, Rittenhouse has a book coming out. Crime may pay yet.

and let's close with some holiday self-defense

Perhaps you've been lucky so far, and a few of your local retailers didn't start playing "Jingle Bell Rock" until Black Friday. But for the next month or so all restraint is off, so you won't be able to leave the house without hearing "Santa Baby" coming from somewhere.

I mean, some Christmas music is fine, and I'd probably miss it if I went a full season without any. But December is a whole month, and the Christmas playlist just isn't that long. Even "O Holy Night" gets old if you hear it night after night after night.

So what you'll need by December 25 is some off-beat Christmas music no one else is going to play, or maybe even some anti-Christmas music to channel your building resentment before it blows. Here are some of my favorites.

If you dread getting together with your dysfunctional extended family, the Dropkick Murphys have it worse than you do, and sing about it (with a very catchy tune) in "The Season's Upon Us".

You know that face you make when you were hoping for one kind of present and get something else entirely? Garfunkel and Oates have a song about it: "Present Face".

It seems like every kind of place has a song explaining why Christmas so wonderful there. It's become a formula and you can do it for anywhere, as Weird Al proved by collecting Cold War nostalgia in "Christmas at Ground Zero". Similarly, the makers of South Park cranked out "Christmastime in Hell".

South Park, it turns out, has an entire page of Christmas songs. Or if you want offbeat or unusual Christmas songs no one else knows about, there are entire playlists available on the web. You're welcome.

Feel free to share your own rebellious seasonal music in the comments.

Monday, November 20, 2023

Echoes and Resemblances

The initial, personal cause of his grievance against the universe can only be guessed at; but at any rate the grievance is here. He is the martyr, the victim, Prometheus chained to the rock, the self-sacrificing hero who fights single-handed against impossible odds. If he were killing a mouse he would know how to make it seem like a dragon.

- George Orwell's 1940 review of Mein Kampf

This week's featured post is "Revisiting the fascism question". I didn't notice this cartoon until after that article posted.

If you wondered what I was doing with my week off last week, I was in a church speculating about death.

This week everybody was talking about Gaza

A frequently rumored deal where Hamas would release some number of hostages in exchange for a ceasefire of a certain number of days keeps not quite happening.

The war news this week centered on the Al Shifa Hospital in Gaza, which Israel has claimed sits over a Hamas command-and-control center. Meanwhile, though, it was a hospital, and conditions there became horrific while Israel searched it for Hamas fighters and their hostages. Saturday, a deal was reached to evacuate the patients that could be moved and leave the hospital with a skeleton crew to take care of the rest.

Israel turned up a collection of weapons from the hospital and a shaft that presumably goes down into deeper tunnels. But so far this evidence has fallen short of a command-and-control center, so not everyone was impressed.


It's hard to feel good about any news coming out of Gaza. My interpretation of the October 7 attacks is that Hamas designed them to offend Israel as deeply as possible, giving Israelis the maximum motivation to come to Gaza and root them out. Simultaneously, Hamas had embedded itself in Gaza so tightly that Israel would have to do ugly, horrible things to succeed in rooting them out. For its part, Israel is now doing those ugly, horrible things, and Palestinian civilians are dying in large numbers.

Watching from the outside, I have a hard time coming up with some alternative path Israel ought to be taking, and yet I also have a hard time rooting for them to succeed in their current path. I find myself agreeing with this Nicholas Kristof column, especially this line:

Unless you believe in human rights for Jews and for Palestinians, you don’t actually believe in human rights.


There's been a lot written -- maybe appropriately so -- about antisemitism on college campuses, and from the left in general. But this week we got a reminder that antisemitism on the right is far more pervasive and virulent.

Matt Yglesias wrote a fairly long column about left and right antisemitism, which I'll oversimplify down to this: Leftists sympathize with Palestinians, and sometimes end up overshooting into hating Jews. Rightists hate Jews, and so invent conspiracy theories to justify that hatred. Neither position is good, but they're not exactly mirror images of each other.

Cases in point are these statements by Tucker Carlson and Charlie Kirk, which blame Jews for financing "white genocide" and "anti-white causes". Elon Musk responded to a tweet expressing a similar view with "You have said the actual truth."


In case you thought Hamas was the only group of unreasonable radicals, The New Yorker interviews Daniella Weiss of the Israeli settler movement.

The borders of the homeland of the Jews are the Euphrates in the east and the Nile in the southwest.

That's the land promised to Abraham's descendants in Genesis 15. It includes big chunks of Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq.

If someone decides to invent a new religion today, who will decide the rules? The first nation that got the word from God, the promise from God—the first nation is the one who has the right to it. The others that follow—Christianity and Islam, with their demands, with their perceptions—they’re imitating what existed already. So, why in Israel? They could be anywhere in the world. They came after us, in the double sense of the world.

She's fine with non-Jews continuing to live in these lands, as long as they accept that

We the Jews are the sovereigns in the state of Israel and in the Land of Israel.

That means accepting that "they are not going to have the right to vote for the Knesset. No, no, no."

and averting a government shutdown

I give Speaker Johnson credit for not waiting until the absolute last minute to recognize reality: Any plan to keep the government funded has to rely on Democratic votes, so loading a continuing resolution up with right-wing culture-war riders can't work. The House got a relatively clean CR done Tuesday (supported by 209 Democrats and only 127 Republicans), the Senate passed it Wednesday, and President Biden signed it Thursday, with a day to spare. The ordinary business of government shouldn't be dramatic. Things that need to get done should get done without watching some clock tick down to zero.

Johnson accomplished this by pulling the same trick Kevin McCarthy did just before the House sacked him: He avoided putting the bill through the Rules Committee (where all bills usually go, so that rules can be established for amendments, debate limits, etc., and which McCarthy had stacked with "Freedom" Caucus members as part of the deal that made him speaker). That meant it needed a 2/3rds supermajority to pass, which it only got via overwhelming Democratic support.

Predictably, passing a realistic CR with mostly Democratic votes angered the "Freedom" Caucus, which has no interest in the kind of compromise democracy always entails. So far no one is proposing another vacate-the-chair resolution. But it's hard to see how Johnson gets past the next set of funding deadlines without a revolt.


About those deadlines: The one weird thing about the Johnson-designed CR is that it has two. The bill would extend funding until January 19 for military construction, veterans’ affairs, transportation, housing and the Energy Department. The rest of the government – anything not covered by the first step – would be funded until February 2.

It's not clear what kind of game Johnson has in mind. Maybe he wants to get full-year appropriation bills approved for the January 19 departments approved first, then have a showdown over big cuts to the February 2 departments. Or maybe he wants to be able to have a shutdown over the January 19 departments while the others are still funded. We'll see how Democrats maneuver in response.

In general, it's hard to disagree with one part of Johnson's rhetoric: Congress ought to debate individual programs on their merits, rather than vote the whole government up or down. However, such a plan requires repeated compromises with Democrats, and recognizing that the small and fractious Republican House majority can't get its way on everything. As long as the House loads every bill with things Democrats will never support, nothing will pass and we'll keep coming down to deadlines with the government unfunded.


The CR does not include additional aid for Israel or Ukraine. Meanwhile, Johnson's previous bill that coupled aid to Israel with a deficit-increasing IRS cut is dead in the Senate. If Israel (not to mention Ukraine) is going to get more aid, the House is going to have to try again.

The fact that the IRS cut increases the deficit (by making it easier for rich taxpayers to cheat; I've heard the cut described as "defund the tax police") is routinely left out of conservative-media articles. Conservative media frames the situation as Democrats wanting to protect IRS bureaucrats, not Democrats wanting rich people to pay the taxes they legally owe.

Basically, there are two kinds of legislators. When something needs to get done, one kind thinks "What am I willing to give up to make this happen?" and the other thinks "What can I get people to give me to stop blocking this?"

and the China summit

President Biden met President Xi on Wednesday, and accomplished a small number of important but not flashy things: They restored communications between Chinese and American military leaders, which is how minor incidents are settled without escalating into war. And China agreed to reduce precursor chemicals for making fentanyl, which is a key point in the China-to-Mexico-to-America drug trade. The two leaders disagreed about a number of other issues, like Taiwan.


Yeah, yeah, Taiwan and trade and climate agreements and all that are important, but here's what you were really concerned about: China will resume sending pandas to US zoos.


Back in 2018, John Oliver publicized the banned-in-China anti-Xi memes styling him as Winnie the Pooh, and now I can't see him without noting the resemblance.

and the Tuberville drama

Senator Tuberville's blockade on military promotions continued this week, and we found out that he has at least one ally: Mike Lee of Utah.

Several Republicans have publicly expressed frustration with Tuberville on the floor of the Senate, to no avail. Democrats are going to propose a temporary rule change to circumvent the blockade, but it needs 60 votes to pass. If all 51 Democrats show up to support the change, nine Republicans will be needed. No one knows whether the anti-Tuberville faction has that many Republicans.

and Trump's "insurrection"

A Colorado judge weighed in Friday on whether the 14th Amendment's insurrection clause makes Donald Trump ineligible to be president again. The ruling is a mixed bag: She finds that Trump did engage in insurrection, in the sense intended by the Amendment, but denies that the phrase "officer of the United States" was intended to include presidents. As a result, Trump's name should appear on Colorado primary ballots.

That sounds like a victory for Trump, but Harry Litman isn't so sure. The engaged-in-insurrection part is a finding of fact (based on extensive examination of evidence) which the appellate courts would be inclined to defer to, while the not-an-officer part is a matter of law that the higher courts will want to decide for themselves. So this Trump "victory" may set up a less victorious outcome on appeal.

The judge's opinion is a good summary of what happened on January 6. A key point is that Trump's words can't be taken at face value because

Trump developed and employed a coded language based in doublespeak that was understood between himself and far-right extremists, while maintaining a claim to ambiguity among a wider audience.

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Former first lady Rosalynn Carter died Sunday. Her husband, former president Jimmy Carter, has been in hospice since February.


When Republicans and a few Democrats voted against a resolution to expel George Santos from the House of Representatives a few weeks ago, they claimed it was because he had not yet gotten the due process that an Ethics Committee investigation would provide.

Well, the Ethics report came in Thursday, saying that

Mr Santos exploited "every aspect of his House candidacy for his own personal financial profit."

A new expulsion resolution is expected after Thanksgiving, and it will probably pass.


The Supreme Court finally adopted an ethics code. Critics are not impressed.

The most glaring defect of the new code is its complete lack of any enforcement power. Its 15 pages are littered with weak verbs like “should,” “should not” and “endeavor to,” which, as any college student on a pre-exam bender will tell you, is a reliable way to sound serious without actually doing the work. ... Whatever the justices do, they must know there will be no professional repercussions. Appointed for life and removable only by impeachment, they are effectively untouchable.


Baseball's A's will move from Oakland to Las Vegas by 2028, leaving Oakland without any sports franchises. The A's are baseball's most traveled franchise, beginning as the Philadelphia Athletics, then moving to Kansas City, Oakland, and now Las Vegas.


My annual exercise in humility -- reading various publications' best-books-of-the-year lists and admitting how few of them I've even noticed -- begins with the Washington Post. And Vox reviews the 25 nominees for a National Book Award.

and let's close with an interesting question

WaPo columnist Michael Dirda raises the idea of books you come back to again and again, and refines it a little: Books you may have read only once, but you want to come back to. What's interesting in his column isn't his list of 22 books, but the question itself.

I'll offer All the King's Men as a novel I re-read every five years or so, and Gravity's Rainbow as one I don't re-read cover to cover, but keep coming back to for specific scenes and descriptions. (If you write, you need to keep exposing yourself to authors whose grasp of language is deeper than your own.) As for a set of books I want to come back to someday: Neal Stephenson's Baroque Cycle and Nick Harkaway's Gnommon, which I almost understood the second time through.

Your turn.

Monday, November 6, 2023

Doubt and Indecision

No Sift next week. The next new articles will post on November 20.

One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision. I do not think this is necessary.

- Bertrand Russell
"Present Perplexities" (1953)

This week's featured post is "Can we talk about Israel and Palestine?"

This week everybody was avoiding talking about the war in Gaza

That reluctance is the subject of the featured post.

This week Israeli troops moved into Gaza in force, and have encircled Gaza City, cutting the region in two. The Gaza health ministry now reports over 10,000 Palestinian deaths, though this number can't be independently verified.


Here are a couple of links that didn't make it into the featured post: Ta-Nahisi Coates goes to the West Bank and interprets what he sees through the lens of Jim Crow: Some people can vote and others can't. Some people can go wherever they want and others can't. The history of how things got to be this way may be complicated, Coates says, but the morality of it is simple.

And Nicholas Kristof visits two Palestinian men he met 41 years ago on a bus.

I pushed back and noted how brutal the Hamas terrorism had been and how many Israeli civilians had been killed or kidnapped. Saleh and Mahmoud said that they mourned the Israeli deaths, but wondered why the world wasn’t equally outraged that Palestinians have been killed in cumulatively greater numbers. They were disappointed by my focus on the Hamas barbarism, and I was disappointed by their reluctance to unequivocally condemn those attacks.

... We parted, all of us less spry than we had been the first time. They were fairly ordinary Palestinian men who had mostly kept their heads down; they had avoided politics and had not lost family members to the conflict. But they had lost freedom and dignity. There are untold numbers just like them who never make the headlines but are stewing inside.

I remembered two young men full of promise and warmth, animated by hope and inhabiting a world in which Israelis and Palestinians interacted regularly and didn’t much fear each other. It is wrenching to see such change. As Saleh and Mahmoud became dads and grandfathers, they were shorn of a future, of vitality, of hope.

And that, I think, is the core of the Palestinian problem.

and talking about the new Speaker's first bill

OK, the House has a speaker again so it's open for business and ready to govern. Sort of.

The first order of business is a $105 billion emergency spending bill Biden proposed that included money for Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan, and the southern border. It seems likely to pass the Senate with a substantial bipartisan majority.

But "No, no, no," the House Republican majority says. "That's not how we want to do business any more. We'll unbundle the pieces and look at them separately, then combine them with cuts so that spending doesn't increase."

One problem with that approach is that bundling proposals together is how you assemble coalitions big enough to pass things. But never mind, Israel is popular, so let's start there: a $14.3 billion aid-to-Israel bill that is offset by a $14.3 billion cut in funding the IRS, undoing a piece of Biden's Inflation Reduction Act that passed last year before Republicans got control of the House.

But there's a snag in the House's logic: The IRS funding was supposed to crack down on rich tax cheats, and is expected to raise more revenue than it costs. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that cutting $14.3 billion out of the IRS budget will decrease revenue by $26.8 billion over ten years, for a net deficit increase of $12.5 billion. (The Fox News story on the bill leaves this detail out.)

So in order to "balance" deficit-increasing aid for Israel, the House adds a deficit-increasing cut to the IRS.

A few things we can conclude from this:

  • House Republicans aren't serious about the deficit. If they were, they'd pair the $14 billion of Israel aid with $14 billion of deficit reduction, not an additional deficit increase.
  • They aren't serious about helping Israel. Otherwise they wouldn't try to score political points that will slow down coming to an agreement with the Senate.
  • Getting aid to Ukraine is going to be difficult. (That should make Putin happy.)
  • Helping rich people cheat on their taxes is a high priority for them.
  • If this is how Speaker Johnson approaches legislation, avoiding a government shutdown is going to be difficult. New funding has to pass both houses of Congress by a week from Friday.

Cutting spending: Great idea! Here's a Labor Party video from Britain a few years ago that explains how austerity (doesn't) work.

and prejudice rising in America

There were always a number of things wrong with the "melting pot" imagery America once used to describe itself. (Chiefly: the assumption that you had to give up your prior ethnic identity to become truly American, and the fact that we never allowed Black people to fully melt in.) But there's one thing it got right: Whatever ethnic squabbles you had in the old country should be left in the old country. Germany/France, Greece/Turkey, Serb/Croat -- whatever it was, we didn't want it here. Of course we developed our own ethnic rivalries, but at least they were based on things that happened in America, not feuds brought across the ocean. Mr. Dubois and Mr. Schwartz could be good neighbors here, whatever the Der Kaiser and la République were bickering about.

We seem to have lost that. One of the many depressing aspects of the current conflict in Israel and Gaza is antisemitic and Islamophobic violence in the United States. This much should be obvious: Your Palestinian-American neighbor is not a Hamas terrorist and your Jewish-American neighbor is not trying to steal anybody's ancestral land. I understand that Israelis and Palestinians in the Middle East face difficult issues that I don't know how to resolve. But the echoing violence here in America is something we can and should just stop. There's no reason for it.

and the Trump trials

Donald Trump is testifying today in the New York civil fraud trial against the Trump Organization. Last week, Trump sons Don Jr. and Eric testified, and Ivanka is due up on Wednesday.

Last Friday on MSNBC's "Deadline White House", former DoJ official Andrew Weissman outlined the standard Trump family strategy on testifying. (Sorry I can't find video on this or quote him exactly.)

The first ploy, Weissman said, is to claim to be the smartest person in the room. You see this, for example, in things Trump has said about valuing Mar-a-Lago: He knows what it is worth, and nobody else's opinion matters. Appraisers don't know, assessors don't know, accountants don't know -- but he knows. When that fails, the back-up ploy is to claim to be the dumbest person in the room: It's not my job to know these things; I have people for that. I just do what the accountants and lawyers tell me.

It will be interesting to see which way Trump himself goes today.

Don Jr. and Eric were using the second ploy in their testimony. Junior's Wharton MBA, he testified, doesn't mean that he knows anything about accounting. (I have it on good authority that other Wharton MBAs were mortified by this.) The accountants, the Trump sons both claimed, did the financial statements and they just signed off on them.

Both of them were tripped up by Assistant Attorneys General Colleen Faherty and Andrew Amer, who produced emails and other documents the sons couldn't explain.

If you've ever had somebody else do your taxes, you should understand that accountants don't work the way the Trumps claimed. Accountants are not auditors; they apply laws and rules to the numbers you give them. If you lie to your accountant about, say, what you spent to keep your home business operating or how much you paid for the house you just sold, it's not up to the accountant to do an independent investigation and correct you.

Same thing here: When Trump claimed his Trump Tower apartment was three times its actual size, it wasn't the accountants' responsibility to get out a tape measure and check.

and tomorrow's elections

Ohio votes on whether to guarantee a right to abortion. Kentucky and Mississippi have surprisingly competitive governor's races. And Virginia's legislative elections will tell us whether the issues Glenn Youngkin won on two years ago still resonate.

this week's best schadenfreude moments

Now that Mark Meadows appears to be offering testimony that contradicts what he said in his book, his publisher is suing him.


Crypto-currency fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried was convicted on all counts. Wikipedia sums up his spectacular fall:

Prior to FTX's collapse, Bankman-Fried was ranked the 41st richest American in the Forbes 400, and the 60th richest person in world by The World's Billionaires. His net worth peaked at $26 billion. By November 11, 2022, amid the bankruptcy of FTX, the Bloomberg Billionaires Index considered his net worth to have been reduced to zero.

The satirical NYT Pitchbot's take:

If the federal prosecutors can put Sam Bankman-Fried in jail for stealing billions of dollars, imagine what they can do to you.

but hardly anybody has been talking about the World Series

If you're younger than, say, 50, you probably have no notion of what the World Series meant when I was growing up in the 1960s. For a little over a week, the world all but stopped. If somebody was playing football on Saturday or Sunday, nobody noticed.

And it wasn't just the sports world that ground to a halt: The games were all played in the daytime until 1971, and radio broadcasts echoed through factories and other workplaces. Young fans like me applied considerable ingenuity to sneaking radios into our classrooms. (If you could stuff one of the cheap new transistor radios into a shirt pocket and cover the bulge with a sweater, you could thread the earphone cord under a sleeve as far as your left wrist -- or right wrist if you were left-handed. Then you could prop your head up palm-to-ear while pretending to do schoolwork with your dominant hand.)

There were no "playoffs" until 1969, and no "wild card" teams until 1995. The regular-season champion of the National and American Leagues played each other, and since there was no interleague play during the season (until 1997), the two leagues were impossible to compare. So the Series held a considerable mystique: These match-ups -- Mickey Mantle facing Sandy Koufax or Bob Gibson -- could only happen in an All-Star game or a World Series. No one knew what to expect.

That mystique cloaked a difficult truth about baseball: Unlike football or basketball, baseball is so inherently random and streaky that you can't tell how good a team is by watching it for only a week or two. (For example, countless no-name pitchers have thrown no-hitters during their one magical day in the sun, only to immediately fade back into obscurity.) So while it was undoubtedly true that occasionally the lesser team won the World Series (like the Pirates beating the Yankees in 1960 despite being outscored 55-27 over the course of seven games), it was easy to suspend disbelief and convince yourself that the winner was indeed the best team.

That's much harder to do now. Twelve teams -- nearly half of the 30-team league -- get into the playoffs, so one or two of them are bound to get hot and play way over their heads for a few weeks. Whichever two teams are most favored by luck and circumstance will meet in the World Series, and one of them will win. Is that "champion" the best team in baseball? Don't be silly.

Under the pre-1969 system, this year's World Series would have featured the Orioles (101-61 in the regular season) against the Braves (104-58), instead of the Rangers (90-72) against the Diamondbacks (84-78). An Orioles/Braves series would have been the culmination of the drama fans had been watching all summer. (Within the National League, the Braves/Dodgers pennant race would have been epic.) Instead, those of us living outside of Texas and Arizona were scratching our heads saying, "Wait. Who are these guys again?"

Or we just ignored it. Because "World Series winner" -- the Rangers this year, in case you hadn't heard -- has just become a line in a record book. It doesn't actually mean anything any more.

and you also might be interested in ...

The latest set of polls from NYT/Siena aren't good, and aren't good in mysterious ways: Trump has a surprising amount of support among young voters and voters of color.

I finally broke down and subscribed the The Status Kuo blog by Jay Kuo. His latest post is "One Year Out from Election 2024", and it roughly parallels the argument I made in "About the Polls" in September. He is concerned about the polls, but still thinks Biden is in a far better position than the polls make it appear.

David Roberts:

Every single Dem presidential candidate of my lifetime, the tag-team of RW media & shitty MSM has honed in on some (often silly) weakness & beaten it to death. Gore is insincere; Kerry's a flip-flopper; Clinton had her emails; Biden's age. Only Obama has escaped this. ...

Any realistic alternative to Biden would also be tagged with some flaw, some Thing, some narrative that the media beat to death until the public started repeating it back to them. It's structural, just how the game works.

And then we'd get calls to shove that person aside in favor of some other even-more-unicorn unicorn that would not be subject to the same shit. There is no unicorn. Solve the structural information problem or things keep getting worse.

It reminds me of a refrain I've heard so often in climate/energy over the years: "they've polarized X, let's talk about Y instead." Dudes. They can polarize anything! They've spent decades building a giant polarization machine! There is no non-polarizeable term/tech/policy!


The vote to expel George Santos from Congress failed. But the interesting voice here is Jeff Jackson, a Democrat who voted not to expel him. Jackson points out that an Ethics Committee report on Santos is due in two weeks. The Ethics Committee process that gives investigated members certain rights, and expelling Santos without the report would set a bad precedent. Jackson fully expects to vote to expel Santos after the report comes out, but not until then.

He anticipates an objection:

“But Jeff, the other side doesn’t care about precedent or due process!” Perhaps, but I do. And I think we all should. So that’s the standard I’ll defend.

MSNBC's Hayes Brown argues the other side:

The bigger threat, as I see it, is not that members are kicked out too easily for partisan reasons. It’s that members who are clearly unfit to serve are permitted to remain because of the letters next to their names.

and let's close with something anachronistic

I've closed with this 2Cellos video before, but not for nine years. This 17th-century performance of AC/DC's "Thunderstruck" is worth a second look.

Just for reference, here's AC/DC's original.

Monday, October 30, 2023

Worldviews

Someone asked me today in the media, "People are curious, what does Mike Johnson think about any issue?" I said, "Well, go pick up a Bible off your shelf and read it. That’s my worldview."

- Speaker Mike Johnson to Sean Hannity

This week's featured post is "Mike Johnson is worse than you think".

This week everybody was talking about the new speaker

Wednesday, the House ended three weeks of chaos by electing Mike Johnson (R-LA) Speaker of the House on a party line vote. The featured post outlines why Johnson scares me more than some random right-wing extremist with similar views on most issues: Mike Johnson is a Christian Nationalist. So he feels perfectly justified in ignoring the will of the electorate and imposing his moral vision on us.

But there's more to think about here than just Johnson. Last week I may have raised your hope that non-MAGA Republicans had found their backbones. I apologize. After watching the MAGA wing torpedo Tom Emmer's candidacy for speaker, his supporters gave in and voted unanimously for Mike Johnson, whose ideology differs from Jim Jordan's only by being more theocratic.

Ken Buck of Colorado is a prime example. Two weeks ago, in an interview with MSNBC's Katy Tur, Buck seemed to be taking a principled pro-democracy stand:

I asked [Steve Scalise] last night: "Will you unequivocally and publicly state that the election, the 2020 presidential election, was not stolen?" He didn't answer that question very clearly and Jim Jordan didn't answer that question very clearly.

But then he backed down and voted for Johnson, who led 100 Republican members of Congress in supporting an unsuccessful lawsuit by the Texas attorney general that would have invalidated the electoral votes of Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Without those states, Joe Biden would not have had 270 electoral votes and the outcome of the election would have been thrown into dispute. (The Supreme Court refused to consider the case on the grounds that Texas had no standing.)

After casting his vote in support of Johnson on Wednesday, Buck told CNN that he had not heard Johnson acknowledge that President Joe Biden won the 2020 election, as he had previously demanded of Jordan and Scalise.

“I have not gotten that promise from Mike,” Buck said. “I hope he comes around to that point.”

Here's how much respect Johnson has for Buck's question: When Johnson faced the press for the first time as speaker, ABC's Rachel Scott tried to ask something similar. She was shouted down by the Republican congresspeople surrounding Johnson, highlighted by North Carolina's Virginia Foxx yelling, "Shut up! Shut up!" The Hill describes the Speaker's response:

Johnson smiled, shook his head and said “next question.”

That seems to be Speaker Johnson in a nutshell: He dresses more neatly than Jim Jordan, keeps his cool, and is not as uncouth as Virginia Foxx. But he's on the same page, and will unapologetically take advantage of their rudeness.


In the same Katy Tur interview, Rep. Buck mentioned that he wanted assurances from the speaker candidates that they would bring Ukraine funding up for a vote. It looks like he didn't get that from Johnson either. Thursday, Speaker Johnson announced that he intended to separate Ukraine and Israel funding bills. The implication of that is that each bill would be subject to the Hastert Rule, which does not allow votes on bills that don't have majority support inside the Republican caucus. Ukraine aid is a close question within the caucus, so it may not come up for a vote in the full House, where it would surely pass.

and the Israel/Gaza war

Unless you implicitly trust one side or the other, it's hard to get any clear idea of what's going on in Gaza. Bombs are falling, and whatever anyone intends, they fall (like the rain) on the just and the unjust alike. A ground invasion has started, but doesn't seem yet to be an all-out assault. Such an assault may still be coming, but it might not.

The possibilities for the war to expand are numerous. A northern front could open between Israel and Hezbollah. A uprising in the West Bank is possible. I've seen a claim on X/Twitter -- God knows if anything on X is true these days -- that Israeli settlers are attempting to expel Palestinians. Peter Beinart believes this report enough to claim he saw it coming in his article last spring: "Could Israel Carry Out Another Nakba?".

and another mass shooting

This is America, so you don't have time to process one shooting before the next one happens. Saturday night, shots were fired in Tampa's Ybor City neighborhood.

A shooting erupted in the middle of Ybor City after a Saturday night full of Halloween celebrations, leaving two dead and at least 18 people injured, Tampa police said.

But you may not be ready to think about that yet, because the rampage in Lewiston, Maine Wednesday evening is still so fresh. A shooter attacked random people in a bar and in a bowling alley, killing 18 and wounding 13. (Early reports that 50-60 people had been injured were wrong.) The shooter has been identified as Robert Card, and his body was found Friday; apparently he killed himself.

If you wanted to make the point that American gun laws are insane, you could hardly have designed an event more perfectly. In July, Card bought a Ruger SFAR high-powered rifle and a Beretta semi-automatic pistol. Ten days later, while serving as an Army reservist at a camp in New York,

the army gave Card a “Command Referral” to seek treatment after he told army personnel at Camp Smith Card had been “hearing voices” and had thoughts about “hurting other soldiers.” A National Guard spokesperson confirmed to CNN Card was transported to the nearby Keller Army Community Hospital at the United States Military Academy for “medical evaluation,” after Army Reserve officials reported Card for “behaving erratically.”

His family was also worried about him.

Card's family told NBC News on Thursday that he had been hearing voices for months. “His mind was twisting them around,” said Katie Card, the suspect’s sister-in-law.

She said the family reached out to police and Card’s Army Reserve base as they “got increasingly concerned.”

Unfortunately, Maine only has a "yellow-flag law", a watered-down version of the red-flag laws 21 other states have.

Even though Card underwent psychiatric treatment, [Nick] Suplina [senior vice president for law and policy at Everytown for Gun Safety] said he believes that would not have immediately set Maine's yellow flag law into motion because that process involved a law enforcement agency in a different state. [New York]

The family would have likely had to contact police in Maine, starting a new process, Suplina said.

So in the United States, or at least in Maine, you can be crazy, people can know you're crazy, there can be a recent record of you buying a gun suitable for mass killing, and nobody can do anything about it.

I've heard several local people explain that implementing a more effective red-flag law hadn't seemed all that urgent, because Maine (and particularly a small town like Lewiston), just didn't seem like the kind of place where these things happen. But the inadequacy of that kind of thinking has been exposed over and over again: Parkland, Florida wasn't the kind of place where these things happen. Neither was Uvalde, Texas or Newtown, Connecticut. After last year's Fourth of July shooting in Highland Park, Illinois, I tried to explain what that meant:

I don’t think I’ve ever been to Highland Park, and you probably haven’t either. But you’ve seen it. The movies use Chicago’s North Shore suburbs to symbolize affluent communities so sheltered from the scary aspects of modern life that teens have to seek out adventure for themselves. Ferris Bueller lived in Highland Park; so did Joel Goodsen from Risky Business. That idyllic family life The Good Wife had before her crooked-politician husband went to jail and everything fell apart? It was in Highland Park. The town sits between Lake Forest, where 1980 Best Picture Ordinary People was set, and Winnetka, site of the Home Alone house. (But parts of that movie were shot in Highland Park too.)

During their glory days with the Bulls, basketball legends Michael Jordan and Scotty Pippen had Highland Park mansions. Jefferson Airplane’s Grace Slick was born there. About 30K people live there now, and the 2010 census says the median household income is over $100K.

Here’s what I’m trying to get across: If a mass shooting can happen in Highland Park, it can happen anywhere. It can happen in your town too.

So me say it again: As long as we have these crazy gun laws, we're all vulnerable.


Meanwhile, the Supreme Court is hearing a case that could invalidate another kind of red-flag law: one that takes guns away from domestic abusers. Such laws are excellent from two points of view:

  • They undoubtedly save the lives of spouses, children, and other close associates of violent individuals.
  • And they probably prevent mass shootings, because mass shooters often start on a smaller scale, with violence against the people closest to them.

But maybe a law disarming domestic abusers is one of those nice things we just can't have in the United States, at least not under this Supreme Court.

According to Vox' Ian Millhiser, Zackey Rahimi is "an individual that no sensible society would allow to have a gun". Allegedly, in addition to assaulting his girl friend in a parking lot, Rahimi fired a gun at a bystander who witnessed the incident. He was involved in five other shooting incidents in a little over a year.

And yet, an appeals court recently found that Rahimi has a constitutional right to own a gun. In fact, any law that tries to take his guns away is unconstitutional on its face.

That means that, if the Fifth Circuit’s decision is upheld by the Supreme Court, this federal ban on firearm possession by domestic abusers may never be applied to any individual, no matter how violent that individual may be and no matter how careful the court that issued a restraining order against such an individual was in ensuring that they received due process.

But we haven't gotten to the craziest part yet: That result is a correct application of the doctrine Clarence Thomas laid out in the 2022 Bruen decision.

Bruen held that, in order to justify nearly any law regulating firearms, “the government must demonstrate that the regulation is consistent with this Nation’s historical tradition of firearm regulation.” This means that lawyers defending even the most widely accepted gun laws, such as the federal ban on gun possession by domestic abusers, must show that “analogous regulations” also existed and were accepted when the Constitution was framed — particularly if the law addresses “a general societal problem that has persisted since the 18th century.” If they cannot, the challenged gun law must be struck down.

And that's where we're out of luck. Domestic abuse certainly existed in the Founding Era, but it wasn't considered a crime. And there's no contemporary record of any law taking flintlock pistols away from wife beaters. So unless the Court wants to backtrack on a fairly recent decision, Rahimi (and even worse people) will get to keep his guns.

and the Trump trials

Another of Trump's co-defendants in the Georgia RICO case pleaded guilty Tuesday: Jenna Ellis.

Ellis, who once described herself as part of an “elite strike force team” of attorneys pursuing unfounded claims of election fraud, pleaded guilty to one count of aiding and abetting false statements and writings.

“If I knew then what I know now, I would have declined to represent Donald Trump in these post-election challenges,” a tearful Ellis told the judge.

What damage Ellis' testimony might do to Trump -- or to co-defendant Rudy Giuliani, who Ellis worked with closely -- is still speculative. In the NYT, Norman Eisen and Amy Lee Copeland cast her as a star witness, but it's hard to say at this point.

Rudy Giuliani, flanked by cooperating witnesses Sidney Powell and Jenna Ellis.

Two different Trump gag orders were in the news. In the civil fraud trial against the Trump Organization in New York, Judge Arthur Engoron called Trump to the stand, found his testimony not credible, and fined him $10,000. Engoron had earlier issued a gag order on Trump preventing him from attacking officers of the court when Trump had baselessly posted on Truth Social that Engoron's law clerk was Chuck Schumer's girlfriend. He had fined Trump $5K when the post persisted on Trump's campaign website, which his lawyers said was "inadvertent".

This fine came after Trump told reporters outside the courtroom on Wednesday that "This judge is a very partisan judge with a person who is very partisan sitting alongside him — perhaps even much more partisan than he is." Judge Engoron took that as yet another reference to his clerk, which Trump denied on the stand. (He claimed he was talking about Michael Cohen, who had appeared that day as a witness. Attacking witnesses is also typically frowned upon.) This was the claim Engoron said he didn't believe.

Meanwhile, Judge Tanya Chutkan (presiding in the federal election interference case against Trump) issued a gag order banning him from attacking prosecutors and witnesses in that trial. She stayed the order temporarily while waiting for an appellate court to rule, but then reinstated it when Trump used the temporary break in the order to go after potential witness Mark Meadows.

Trump is claiming that his status as a former president and current presidential candidate gives him rights no other criminal defendant would have. I doubt the appeals court will agree with him.

Ultimately, Trump will have to be found in contempt of court because he is in fact contemptuous of the proceedings against him. Clearly, $10K fines are not going to restrain him. Eventually, we'll have to see if jail time works.


This should be an exciting week in the New York fraud trial: Don Jr., Eric, and Ivanka are expected to testify.

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The Commerce Department reported that the US economy grew at a 4.9% annual pace in the third quarter. (And yes, that number does account for inflation.) The previous week, a report from the Federal Reserve said that both mean and median household wealth is up. In other words, American households are generally richer than they were before the pandemic.

One of the continuing mysteries of American politics is that President Biden consistently polls badly on economic issues, while the country's economic statistics have been quite good.


Weird weather continues to result from climate change: Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco as a Category 5 storm Wednesday. It is the only Cat 5 storm to hit the Pacific coast, and intensified from a mere tropical storm in less than 24 hours.


Virginia holds its elections in odd years, making the state a possible bellwether of national trends. Two years ago, Glenn Youngkin's upset victory in the governor's race drew attention to critical race theory and other right-wing education tropes.

A week from tomorrow, the governorship is not on the ballot, but control of the legislature is. Democrats currently hold a small majority in the Senate and Republicans in the House.


Here are a few things Trump said in Sioux City, Iowa yesterday. He bragged about being willing to ignore our NATO obligations.

I remember, the head of a country stood up and said, "Does that mean that if Russia attacks my country, you will not be there?" And I said, "That's right. That's what it means. I will not protect you."

He said hello to Sioux Falls, not realizing where he was. (Sioux Falls is in South Dakota.) And he claimed that Hungary shares a border with Russia.

The NYT collects some of Trump's other recent blunders: He warned that the US is on the verge of World War II. He bragged about being ahead of Barack Obama in the polls, and claimed that he beat Obama in 2016. He referred to Hungarian President Viktor Orban as the president of Turkey. He pronounced Hamas as if it were hummus.

But Biden is the one who's out of it because he's too old.


Mike Pence suspended his presidential campaign. From the beginning, his campaign has felt like one of those moments in football when a quarterback cocks his arm and I think, "Where is he throwing that?" And sure enough, the pass goes right to a defender and gets intercepted.

Same thing here. I never understood what voters Pence was targeting. MAGA voters resent Pence for not cooperating in Trump's coup. Non-MAGA voters resent Pence for staying loyal to Trump right up to moment of the coup. Maybe he thought that he could reclaim the Evangelical voters he led to Trump in 2016, but they're long gone. In the GOP, the good-Christian-family-man boat sailed a long time ago.

He should have thrown the ball out of bounds and punted.


You may not know about Conservapedia, the conservative alternative to the "liberal" (i.e., reality based) Wikipedia. But Kat Abu pays attention to these things, while managing to keep her sense of humor.

and let's close with something massive

There's something really primal about singing along with large numbers of people. Also, large groups often sound surprisingly decent. (The notes sung tend to average out on the right ones.) Astrid Jorgensen of Australia started the Pub Choir project to create singing-together projects on an epic scale.

At Pub Choir events, Jorgensen teaches a well-known song in 3-part harmony to non-trained singers. The performance is filmed and posted on the net.

In this video, Pub Choirs in cities across Australia unite to sing Toto's "Africa". The result is strangely compelling, whether you like the song or not.