Monday, July 29, 2019

Fulfilling the Dream

What I represent is an America that still allows people to fulfill that American dream. ... What I wanted people to know about my election is that this dream isn't closed off.

- Ilhan Omar

This week's featured posts are "A New ICE Policy Endangers Everybody" and "Reset: Investigations Post Mueller".

This week everybody was talking about Bob Mueller

Most of my reaction to Mueller's testimony on Wednesday is in the featured post.


Mueller's warning about Russian interference in our elections -- that it's real and they're still doing it -- made no impression on Mitch McConnell, a.k.a. "Moscow Mitch", who killed two election-security bills that had passed the House: One would give states extra money to beef up the security of their election systems and insist on paper ballots (which can be recounted if something goes wrong with the voting machines); and the other would require candidates to notify the FBI if they are offered help by a foreign country.

Republicans are trying to portray these as partisan proposals, because they got almost no Republican votes in the House. But there's nothing partisan about the content of the bills, unless Republicans believe they can't win fair elections. For the same reason, McConnell killed H. R. 1, which would ban gerrymandering, eliminate anonymous political ads, and make many other admirable changes in our elections.

and "expedited removal"

This is the subject of "A New ICE Policy Endangers Everybody".

and this week's outburst of racism

Last week the Squad, this week Elijah Cummings and Baltimore. Maybe Trump's purpose is to cut off discussion of Bob Mueller, but if this is just his 2020 strategy -- to turn the racism up to 11 -- I think he's starting too early. This is going to get really old by the time we vote.

Most of the time, the media treats Trump's constant attacks on communities of color as bad in some abstract moral sense. But occasionally someone takes it personally.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYANRUos8Hg&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR2tzV9CwQxjL-39NRahN2cuX2XLktdV3IajOCEy3owtIDqjIhOukvWQFGw

Victor Blackwell's response demonstrates why it's important for the media to include a wide range of voices. White commentators from professional-class suburbs can tut-tut as much as they like about insults like this, but their words don't have the power of someone who feels the sting personally.

Blackwell makes a point that you should note, even if you don't feel like watching the full 2:42: Infested is a dehumanizing term that Trump reserves for communities of color. Whenever Trump refers to a place as being "infested" with something (drugs, rats, crime, etc.), invariably that place has a non-white majority. West Virginia might be poor, and it might be ground-zero of the opioid problem, but Trump would never call it "drug-infested", because white people live there.


Seth Mandel makes a similar point about Trump's clash with ex-Republican Rep. Justin Amash.

See Trump didn’t go after Amash’s district in their dustup, which is like 80% white. That’s a bit of a tell.

This tweet also raises the notion that it's weird for a President to "go after" any part of America. I'm sure there are meth-head-infested hell-holes in rural Alabama, but Obama never demonized them, or argued that their representatives shouldn't criticize him until they fixed their districts.


A number of white Baltimorians also responded to Trump's attack on their city. Director John Waters pointed to the cowardice of insulting people via Twitter. "Come on over to that neighborhood and see if you have the nerve to say it in person!” (That's humorous, because Trump is a Twitter warrior. Can you imagine him having the courage to insult Colin Kaepernick or LeBron James face-to-face?)

And David Simon, creator of HBO's Baltimore-centered "The Wire", called Trump "a simplistic, racist moron".


There's an argument about how to respond to Trump's appeals to racism.

Tim Wise describes what he learned from David Duke's campaigns for governor and senator in Louisiana.

if a racist’s political opponent avoids the subject of race and tries instead to appeal to voters with proposals on health coverage and tax reform, that normalizes the racist, whether it’s Duke, Trump or someone else, by treating them like any other candidate, and treating the election at hand as if it’s merely a debate between two legitimate, contrasting public policy visions.

To win an election where the issue of race is front-and-center, anti-racists must make it clear to voters that when they cast their ballots, they are making a moral choice about the kind of people they want to be and the kind of nation in which they want to live.

But Frank Bruni disagrees:

We used all those words in 2016 — racist, demagogue, fascist — and he won. Voters saw indelible examples of this same behavior, and he won. The [North Carolina] rally wasn’t a new Trump, just a bloated one. And the coming election isn’t a referendum on his character, which voters have or haven’t made their peace with. Pointing at him and shouting the direst words from the darkest thesaurus will do limited if any good.

Stop talking so much about the America that he’s destroying and save that oxygen for the America that Democrats want to create.

I wonder if the answer isn't to borrow an idea from the Serbian resistance to Milosevic: very simple slogans that became nationwide graffiti, like "It's time" and "He's finished". Maybe the right anti-Trump message doesn't have to detail anything about his racism, sexism, bullying, trolling, authoritarianism, or general boorishness. Just: "Enough!". Everyone who sees it can decide for themselves what they've had enough of. Feel free to steal my version or make a better one of your own.

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Another mass shooting yesterday, this time at the Gilroy Garlic Festival. If even these sorts of fun civic events aren't safe any more, it says something terrible about our country.


The next round of Democratic presidential debates are tomorrow and Wednesday on CNN. Again, there are 10 candidates each night. The first night is headlined by Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris on stage the second night.

The first night, I'll be watching what Warren and Sanders do. On the one hand, they agree on a lot, so they could support each other's points. On the other hand, there's probably only room for one of them to make a serious run, so they could try to knock each other out.

On the second night, Joe Biden is the interesting one. The first debate showed that he can't just coast; he has to put forward ideas and jostle with the other candidates. How does he plan to do that?


Friday, the Commerce Department released its GDP estimates for the second quarter. GDP growth was down to 2.1%, and the growth rate for 2018 as a whole was revised down from 3% to 2.5%. This is far from terrible, but it means that the economy is doing roughly the same under Trump as it did under Obama.

Unemployment rates are lower now because it's later in the economic cycle; the economy has had more time to create jobs since the Great Recession. If you look at the graph of the unemployment rate since the recession, you can't pick out any difference between Trump and Obama.

Matt Yglesias elaborates:

Growth under Trump has continued, but there’s no discernible Trump acceleration. What’s more, the data indicates that the growth we have been enjoying has come largely from traditional fiscal stimulus — under Trump, Republicans have stopped caring about budget deficits and spending has gone up while taxes have gone down — rather than from any supply-side magic or boost in investment.

In other words: The Trump tax cut may have stimulated the economy by raising the deficit, but the other stuff it was supposed to accomplish still hasn't happened. (Business investment, for example, was actually down in the second quarter.) Exports, meanwhile, are a drag on the economy, as Trump's trade war takes its toll.

Again, this isn't awful performance any more than Obama's was. It just points out that we're getting nothing in exchange for having Trump as president. Nothing in exchange for what we're giving up in terms of democracy, the environment, race relations, and our national dignity.


The Supreme Court has stayed the injunction of a lower court, and will allow Trump to expropriate $2.5 billion from the Defense budget to start building his wall. This is not a final ruling on the merits of the case, which is proceeding along with other cases.


The Boeing 737 Max is what happens when manufacturers are allowed to perform their own safety assessments.

Boeing needed the approval process on the Max to go swiftly. Months behind its rival Airbus, the company was racing to finish the plane, a more fuel-efficient version of its best-selling 737.

The regulator’s hands-off approach was pivotal. At crucial moments in the Max’s development, the agency operated in the background, mainly monitoring Boeing’s progress and checking paperwork. The nation’s largest aerospace manufacturer, Boeing was treated as a client, with F.A.A. officials making decisions based on the company’s deadlines and budget.

The two crashes that caused the planes to be grounded were caused by a software system [MCAS] that the FAA never examined closely. When MCAS was changed late in the process, making it activate more frequently and make bigger adjustments,

the company never submitted an updated safety assessment of those changes to the agency. ... Under the impression the system was insignificant, officials didn’t require Boeing to tell pilots about MCAS. When the company asked to remove mention of MCAS from the pilot’s manual, the agency agreed.

A common libertarian argument says that a corporation's reputation for safety is so valuable in the market that government oversight isn't necessary. If that principle held anywhere, it would hold in a corporation like Boeing. But the argument assumes that the full import of decisions comes into play at all times. In actual corporations, though, individual decision-makers often are under pressure to cut corners and hope.


One thing Trump ran on in 2016 was that he would protect and even revive America's coal industry. ("They want to be miners, but their jobs have been taken away and we're going to bring them back, folks.") Obama, he claimed, had been fighting a "war on coal", regulating the industry out of business. Trump would put a stop to that war.

Well, the Trump administration has definitely rolled back regulations, valuing the dirtiest form of fossil fuel above the environment, and especially above combating climate change. But it turns out that over-regulation wasn't really the problem: Coal companies are continuing to go bankrupt, with six bankruptcies since October.

Adam Ozimek explains how Trump-think works in these situations:

West Virginia coal miners, big news: we’re cracking down on immigrants. No longer will you live under the crushing burden of the 1.6% of your population that is foreign born.


The NYT wonders why Rep. Seth Moulton keeps running for president despite polling at asterisk levels. Those of us who live in his district wonder the same thing.


It was 109 degrees in Paris on Thursday, but I'm sure it doesn't mean anything. Just keep on doing whatever you've been doing.

Last month, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research said Europe’s five hottest summers since 1500 had all occurred in the 21st century – in 2002, 2003, 2010, 2016 and 2018.

Monthly records were now falling five times as often as they would in a stable climate, the institute said, adding that this was “a consequence of global warming caused by the increasing greenhouse gases from burning coal, oil and gas”.


The Washington Post let a former student editor at Jerry Falwell Jr.'s Liberty University describe the oppressive atmosphere he had to live under.


A video of Rep. Ilhan Omar that has been edited to make her sound anti-white went viral inside the conservative bubble. It was shared by Senator Marco Rubio, who apparently doesn't feel any obligation to verify the stuff he tweets. Here's the original 10-minute Omar interview, which includes the quote at the top of the page.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UmmvROd4J8

In case you're wondering what was left out in the edited version, it's the hypothetical nature of her comment that police should be profiling and monitoring white men. They edited out the "if fear was the driving force behind policies to keep Americans safe". She wasn't trying to threaten white men (as the edited version implies); her point was that policies like Trump's Muslim ban have more to do with bigotry than with fear of terrorism. And this much is true: More terrorist attacks in the US are carried out by white supremacists than by jihadists.

and let's close with somebody else's problem

Now that Boris Johnson is giving Trump competition in the wild-haired loose cannon division of the head-of-state Olympics, and the possibility of a no-deal Brexit looms, this Tracey Uhlman piece advertising "Paddy Passports" -- EU-member Irish passports for British folk who still want to travel in Europe -- is relevant again.

Monday, July 1, 2019

Abandonment of Duty

This Court’s one-person, one-vote cases recognize that each person is entitled to an equal say in the election of representatives. It hardly follows from that principle that a person is entitled to have his political party achieve representation commensurate to its share of statewide support. Vote dilution in the one-person, one-vote cases refers to the idea that each vote must carry equal weight. That requirement does not extend to political parties; it does not mean that each party must be influential in proportion to the number of its supporters.

- Chief Justice John Roberts

Of all times to abandon the Court’s duty to declare the law, this was not the one. The practices challenged in these cases imperil our system of government. Part of the Court’s role in that system is to defend its foundations. None is more important than free and fair elections.

-- Justice Elena Kagan

This week's featured posts are "What I Learned from the Debates" and "Chief Justice Roberts OKs Minority Rule".

The Weekly Sift's Facebook page just reached 1,000 likes. If you haven't liked it yet, think about it.

This week everybody was talking about the Supreme Court

The term ended this week, and as usual the Court saved the toughest cases for the end. I've already discussed the gerrymandering case in one of the featured posts. But there was also the census case. Here, Chief Justice Roberts sided with the four liberal judges to slap back the administration's effort to put a citizenship question on the 2020 census.

Whatever Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross might say, the purpose of a citizenship question has been obvious from the beginning: Intimidate non-citizens out of responding to the census, so that areas with lots of non-citizens will be undercounted. That will mean their states get fewer representatives in Congress and fewer electoral votes. In general, this will raise the (already substantial) structural advantage of rural whites, who tend to vote Republican.

Unfortunately, the fact that Ross and Trump are trying to undermine democracy is not a winning legal argument, because the law setting up the census is written so broadly that they could say openly "We're trying to undermine democracy" and that would be fine.

What Ross did wrong, though, was to construct a fake reason for the citizenship question and stand by it in court. In general, this is not all that different from what the administration did in the Muslim ban case: Give a bogus explanation and count on the Court to defer to the judgment of the Executive Branch. The problem is, this explanation was so bogus that Chief Justice Roberts was embarrassed to rubber-stamp it. Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern summarize:

If there could be a one-sentence summary of his majority opinion in the term’s census case—in which the chief joined the court’s liberals to refuse to allow Donald Trump’s commerce secretary, Wilbur Ross, to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census—it would be this: “Go ahead and lie to me, but at least do it with gravitas.” Ross and his crew of Keystone Cops had attempted to add the citizenship question that would depress Hispanic response rates and boost white voting power in future redistricting, using pretextual reasons about which the secretary lied But his goals did not offend John Roberts’ politics; that much is clear from his opinion, which accepts the premise that Ross has the right to do what he did so long as he gives a better reason next time. They offended his sense of dignity and politesse with their sloppiness. Lie better next time. That’s the real holding of this case, and it tells you what you need to know about the chief.

One striking thing is that the four conservative justices all dissented from this opinion. As long as the Trump administration goes through the proper motions, Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh really don't care whether what they're being told is true or even credible.

We'll get a good chance to see those four blow with the partisan winds if and when any of the House Democrats' subpoena cases reaches them. There, the Court really has no business delving into Congress' reasons for wanting to see what it wants to see. But I'm sure they'll find a way to forego deference to an equal branch of government when that branch is controlled by Democrats.

and the human rights atrocities on our border

The mistreatment of refugees on our southern border continued to get attention this week. The photo of a father and daughter drowned in the Rio Grande was hard to ignore and hard to explain away.

Congress managed to respond, passing a bill to fund the agencies dealing with the immigrants just before leaving for the Fourth of July recess. The Senate passed a bipartisan bill which progressives in the House didn't like, because it included more money for enforcement as well as humanitarian aid. But House Democrats couldn't stay together and ended up adopting the Senate bill.

The detention facility at Homestead had the misfortune to be close to the Democratic debates, making it an obvious camp to criticize. For its part, the private for-profit company running the camp put out a defensive press release. Among the "fictions" the company disputes is that "Homestead is a 'prison-like' facility." That's setting the bar high.

One of my favorite quotes is from Brazilian Archbishop Dom Helder Camara: "When I give food to the poor, they call me a saint. When I ask why the poor have no food, they call me a communist." Same thing here: Even among the people who have sympathy for the migrants showing up from Central America, too few are asking what went wrong to make them refugees in the first place.

Let me recommend an article from 2016, before this became a Trump-centered issue: "How US policy in Honduras set the stage for today's migration". Some people ask why this is our problem to deal with. Well, there are reasons. In general, the US has favored the Honduran military over more democratic institutions, and has pushed free-market ideas that have served Honduras' poor badly. Now, they have little power, little money, and no place to go but here.


The Onion published "Tips for Staying Civil While Debating Child Prisons", including

  • Consider that we all have different perspectives stemming from things like age, ethnicity, or level of racism.
  • Make sure any protests are peaceful, silent, and completely out of sight of anyone who could actually affect government policy.
  • Avoid painting with a broad brush. Not everyone in favor of zero-tolerance immigration wants to see children in cages—it’s more likely that they just don’t care.

Meanwhile, conservatives exercised their own sense of humor. Kids in cages are so funny!

and the Democratic debates

The other featured post covers them.

and the G-20 meetings in Osaka

Trump spent most of his time chumming with the other members of the Autocrats Club: Putin, Xi, Erdogan, and Mohammed bin Salman, with a side trip to see Kim Jong Un.

Trump warned Putin not to interfere in his re-election, and they both laughed. They also yucked about fake news and getting rid of journalists, which Putin has often done by killing them.


The meeting with Xi restarted the trade talks that fell apart in May.

Mr. Trump promised to hold off on his threat to slap new 25 percent tariffs on $300 billion in Chinese imports, and he agreed to lift some restrictions on Huawei, the Chinese technology giant at the center of a dispute between the nations. In exchange, he said, China agreed to buy a “tremendous amount” of American food and agricultural products. “We will give them a list of things we want them to buy,” he said.

We'll see if that amounts to anything or not. The Huawei issue is very disturbing, because the Chinese tech giant either is or isn't a national security threat. If it isn't, then imposing the restrictions in the first place was using national security a pretext to get trade concessions. If it is, then relaxing the restrictions to get trade talks restarted makes no sense. Either way, I am left with the impression that Trump just doesn't take security seriously.

Early indications are that the stock market will have a big rally today because of optimism about US/China trade. I'm not qualified to give investment advice, but that doesn't always stop me: If there's some stock you've been thinking about selling, this might be a good moment.


Trump and Kim met in the DMZ between the two Koreas on Sunday. Photos were taken, but it's not clear that anything was accomplished. It's not clear that any of the three Trump/Kim meetings have accomplished anything.


Ivanka's presence as a diplomat was its own side issue. My favorite Facebook comment: "Apparently Trump thought it was Bring Your Daughter to the G-20 Day."

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Dirty tricks have started. Donald Trump Jr. retweeted Ari Alexander's questioning of Kamala Harris' race.

“Kamala Harris is implying she is descended from American Black Slaves,” Mr. Alexander wrote during the second night of the Democratic debates. “She’s not. She comes from Jamaican Slave Owners. That’s fine. She’s not an American Black. Period.”

Mr. Trump shared the message, asking his more than three million followers, “Is this true? Wow.”

I'm sure this is a tactic you'll see whenever a Democrat starts to break out of the pack: imply that there is something suspicious or inauthentic about her or him. The insinuation against Harris resembles the baseless claim (pushed by Trump personally) that Barack Obama wasn't really an American.

Kamala Harris with her great-grandmother.

The facts: Harris' father came from Jamaica and her mother from India. She grew up in Oakland, where I'm sure that whatever asterisk Alexander or Trump Jr. want to put on her blackness made no difference whatsoever. When Harris said "As the only black person on this stage ..." she spoke the literal truth. (Cory Booker had debated the previous night.)

To their credit, Harris' rival Democrats closed ranks around her. Cory Booker (who perhaps could benefit if his blackness were considered more authentic than Harris'), was having none of it.

. doesn’t have shit to prove.

And Amy Klobuchar tweeted:

These troll-fueled racist attacks on Senator are unacceptable. We are better than this (Russia is not) and stand united against this type of vile behavior.

Trump Jr. has deleted the tweet and his spokesman claims his intent was "misconstrued". If you've ever been targeted with some kind of smear -- whether based on your race, sex, class, appearance or some other possible sensitivity -- you have undoubtedly run into this tactic before. "Oh, I didn't mean that." The onus is always on you to see the attacker's pure intentions, never on him to see the obvious implications of his words and actions. But let's be blunt: If Trump Jr. really didn't know how his tweet would be construed, then he's a moron.


The current dirty trick on Joe Biden is to imply that he has some mysterious health problem. This is similar to what Trump's people did to Hillary Clinton. Nothing is too low for them.

and let's close with something you probably didn't know

TV Guide claims there's been a TV show set in every state. Sure, we all knew about Northern Exposure in Alaska and Hawaii Five-O, but what's the most popular TV show set in Nebraska?

Monday, June 24, 2019

Unimaginable Reality

A logical fallacy becomes inevitable: If this can’t happen, then the thing that is happening is not it. What we see in real life, or at least on television, can’t possibly be the same monstrous phenomenon that we have collectively decided is unimaginable. ... Anything that happens here and now is normalized, not solely through the moral failure of contemporaries but simply by virtue of actually existing.

- Masha Gessen "The Unimaginable Reality of America's Concentration Camps"
The New Yorker, 6-21-2019

This week's featured post is "Concentrating on the Border". The back-and-forth about whether to call immigrant internment camps "concentration camps" shouldn't distract us from what they are.

This week everybody was talking about Iran

By now we all know the pattern: Trump creates a crisis, does something to prevent the worst possible outcome, and then wants credit for what a great achievement that was. Two weeks ago it was Mexican tariffs. This week it was war with Iran.

By Trump's own account, we were ten minutes away from an attack on Iran that was estimated to kill 150 people. Plans were in motion, but he called them off. The rest of his account sounds like typical Trump story-telling. (I'll bet Trump's military advisors told him immediately what the casualty estimates were; they didn't wait for him to ask and then say "I'll get back to you.") But I believe the gist: An attack plan was set in motion and then cancelled.

Instead, we launched a cyberattack and imposed more sanctions.

The attack was supposed to be a reprisal for Iran shooting down a US drone aircraft. Iran claims the drone was in its airspace, which the US denies.

Nobody seems too sure what happens next.


Mike Pompeo went to Congress to make the unlikely case that Shia Iran is allied with Sunni al Qaeda. It's a little like the global conspiracy of cats and dogs.

The ties between these two arch-enemies, Pompeo claimed, go back to just after 9/11. In other words, his claims are exactly what would be needed to invoke the post-9/11 Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF) to attack Iran. Bogus ties between al Qaeda and Saddam Hussein formed part of the justification for the Iraq War.

and Trump's campaign launch

He's officially running for re-election. The first Trump 2020 rally was in Orlando Tuesday.

Here's the transcript with video, if you really want to know what he said. (If you look at any of it, be sure you also read CNN's fact check, because much of what he isn't true. The Wall, for example, is not "moving along rapidly".) In general, it's the same-old, same-old: Crooked Hillary, witch hunt, his amazing accomplishments.


"The American Dream is back, it's bigger and better, and stronger than ever before." I wonder how that sounds to the millions of Americans who didn't notice their tax cut, are struggling to pay their student debt, and only have health insurance because (1) John McCain cast a last-minute vote to torpedo Trump's repeal of ObamaCare, and (2) the courts still haven't ruled on the Trump-supported lawsuit that would declare ObamaCare unconstitutional.


"Republicans do not believe in socialism, we believe in freedom, and so do you. We will defend Medicare and Social Security for our great seniors." Consecutive sentences: We don't believe in socialism; we'll defend the socialist programs that already exist.


The violent neo-fascist group Proud Boys gathered outside the Orlando rally. Police had to block them from confronting anti-Trump demonstrators. Any other candidate would be expected to denounce such a group of supporters, or at least distance himself from them. But this is Trump, so many news outlets didn't find their presence worth mentioning.


In 2016, Trump's outrageousness and unpredictability led cable networks to carry his rallies live, giving him far more free media than any other candidate. CNN and MSNBC appear to be trying to change their ways: Neither televised the whole Orlando speech.

Fox News media critic Howard Kurtz found this lack of free media objectionable. Fox televised the whole Orlando speech.


I suppose it's fitting for a candidate of no particular morals and zero Biblical knowledge to open his rally with a prayer from evangelist Paula White.

Let every evil veil of deception of the enemy be removed from people's eyes. So right now, let every demonic network who has aligned itself against the purpose, against the calling of President Trump, let it be broken, let it be torn down in the name of Jesus! Let the council of the wicked be spoiled right now. ... I declare that President Trump will overcome every strategy from hell and every strategy of the enemy – every strategy – and he will fulfill his calling and his destiny.

Of course, if some nutcase does the obvious thing -- tries to break the anti-Trump "demonic network" by killing a bunch of "wicked" people "from hell" -- White will be shocked that anyone might blame her.

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Once upon a time, it would have been earth-shaking news if an advice columnist from a major magazine accused the President of the United States of assault verging on rape. Now it's like: "Take a number, lady. I guess you're #22."

Trump denies the allegation, as he has denied all the others. Vox' Laura McGann uses his denial as an example of how gaslighting works. To begin with, he says "I've never met this person in my life" despite the photo of them together. And if he keeps saying things like "people should pay dearly for such false accusations", how long will it be before one of his violent supporters decides to make that happen?


For years now, Jon Stewart has had a cause: the September 11th Victims Compensation Fund, which pays for care for the first responders whose illnesses stem from their work in the aftermath of the attack. The fund will expire next year, and Stewart has been lobbying Congress to get its funding extended.

Something this popular ought to just sail through Congress, but it never actually does, because politicians see it as the spoonful of sugar that will help the distasteful stuff go down: Why just pass this bill on its own, when you could attach lots of special-interest pork to it and still get it through?

Jon went on Stephen Colbert's show to take his case to Mitch McConnell.


It's good to see Turkey's democracy still works well enough that Erdogan's party can lose an election.


Wednesday, a subcommittee of the House Judiciary Committee heard testimony about reparations for slavery.

I'm of two minds about this subject. On the one hand, enslaved Africans and their descendants built a large chunk of America's wealth and wound up owning none of it. That long-ago injustice (plus Jim Crow plus ongoing racism) still has repercussions, and even those whites whose families never owned slaves have benefited in ways we don't always appreciate. (In White Like Me, Tim Wise examines his own racial privilege: He inherited little money from past generations, but his family paid for his university education by mortgaging their house. They bought that house at a time when a black family would not have been allowed to bid on it. So a black Tim Wise wouldn't have gotten that education.)

So the justice of paying some kind of reparations seems clear to me. But what gives me doubt is having seen a Smithsonian exhibit on the Japanese internment. After Pearl Harbor, most Japanese-Americans were imprisoned and held for the next four years or so. In 1988, reparations were declared: $20,000 per surviving detainee.

Picture it: You had a life. The government closed it down and moved you and your family to an internment camp for four years. Decades later, somebody hands you a check for $20,000. Does that cover it? Are we good now?

But in addition to the inadequacy of monetary settlement, there's a bigger problem: For reparations to bring this chapter to a close, our society needs to reach some kind of consensus about what the payment is for and what it means. We're nowhere close to that. If reparations for slavery were paid tomorrow, the white-nationalist types would believe blacks had used their political power to extort something, and they would want to get it back. A lot of other whites would feel like racism was a dead topic now: "Don't ever talk to me about racism again. I paid my bill for that." Meanwhile, blacks would say, "That was slavery. What about Jim Crow?"

I can't argue with the justice of reparations. But I wonder if paying them would make our racial divisions worse.


Accused child-molester Roy Moore is going to make another run for the Senate in Alabama. Establishment Republicans howled in frustration, but it's not clear they can beat him, or that Doug Jones can win the rematch.

Even more than Trump, Moore represents evangelical Christianity's descent into tribalism. If you're on their side, nothing you do is wrong and any testimony against you must be a lie.


The Washington Post's Pulitzer-winning David Fahrenthold takes a look at how Trump's properties profit from his official visits, and from Republican fund-raisers. He has suggested holding the next G-7 meeting at a Trump property.

The Trump Organization claims, "It generates nothing. We charge domestic government entities our costs." But:

  • That's just their word; no disinterested entity is auditing their claim.
  • As Michael Cohen made clear in his testimony, "cost" is a very flexible notion in TrumpWorld. In particular, average cost is very different from marginal cost in the hotel business. If a hotel that wasn't full fills up, those last few rooms cost virtually nothing to provide.
  • The claim ignores the penumbra of business that Trump's visits generate. For example, if a Trump hotel holds a high-roller fund-raiser, some number of the donors will naturally stay at the hotel.
  • The value of the free advertising Trump's visits give his properties is incalculable.

I've been struggling to understand why so many European government bonds ($12 trillion worth, at last count) are selling at a negative interest rate. (The bond theoretically pays interest, but the market price of the bond is more than the principal-plus-interest that the bond will pay out. Example: Suppose I issue a $1,000 bond that will pay 1% interest, with it all coming due next year. So at the end of the year the bond holder will get $1,010 from me. Now imagine that the market bids up the price of that bond so that it sells for $1,020.) Well, a WaPo business reporter asked a "Wall Street god" for an explanation, and he doesn't have one either.

Basically, you pay $1,020 for the bond because you think somebody else will buy it from you for $1,025 before long. This is known as the Bigger Fool Theory: "I'm a fool to buy this, but I'll make money by selling it to a bigger fool."

Rosenberg attributes what’s happening to market forces and momentum, not rational analysis. Even though he and people like him are warning that buying negative-yield bonds is crazy (to use the technical term), prices of these bonds are getting higher and higher, making the yields more and more negative.

“Anyone who’s bought them is way ahead,” Rosenberg said. “People are buying into the bond bubble because they’re watching other people making money” on rising bond prices.

But bubbles always eventually pop, and $12 trillion is a lot of money. This may be how the next worldwide recession starts.

and let's close with some perspective

I love these change-of-scale videos.

Monday, June 17, 2019

Novel Concepts

Let me make something 100% clear to the American public and anyone running for public office. It is illegal for any person to solicit, accept, or receive anything of value from a foreign national in connection with a U.S. election. This is not a novel concept.

- Ellen Weintraub, Chair of the Federal Elections Commission

If somebody called from a country, Norway, ‘We have information on your opponent,’ oh, I think I’d want to hear it.

- Donald Trump

This week's featured posts are: "Socialism: What's in a word?" (In short: When candidates argue about socialism, what are they really talking about?) And "The Lawless Administration" (about the most recent examples of disregard for the law).

Readers of the Morning Tease will realize that the second post wasn't planned. But the notes I intended for this summary grew beyond the usual length.

This week everybody was talking about lawlessness in the Trump administration

See the featured post.

and the Mexico deal

As I was writing last week's Sift, the deal averting Mexican tariffs had just been announced, and people were arguing over whether Trump had actually accomplished anything or just saved face by repackaging concessions Mexico had already made.

Trump apparently took offense at this lack of credulousness, and started talking about a "secret deal" in which Mexico had agreed to much more than seemed apparent. He waved a piece of paper around, which was supposedly this unpublished agreement.

Well, Mexico has published it. And like the North Korean deal that Trump once suggested should get him a Nobel Prize, it doesn't amount to much.

The text of the letter reveals a commitment to begin discussions for a future agreement — essentially making it an agreement to negotiate an agreement — and is, as many expected, not a “deal.” ... According to the letter, Mexico has agreed that if after 45 days this deployment and any other measures it takes “have not sufficiently achieved results in addressing the flow of migrants to the southern border” in the eyes of the US, then Mexico will take “all necessary steps” to bring the still to be negotiated agreement into force within the next 45 days.

So basically in 90 days we'll be back where we started.

and Iran

Thursday, two oil tankers -- one Japanese and the other Norwegian -- were attacked in the Gulf of Oman, which lies just outside the Persian Gulf. The United States is blaming Iran for the attacks, but evidence to support that claim has been spotty, and appears to contradict some of what the tanker companies are reporting.

The larger story looks like this: Last May, the US pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal that the Obama administration agreed to in 2015, despite our own intelligence services verifying that Iran was fulfilling its obligations. (The International Atomic Energy Agency reported in August that Iran was still in compliance.) Since then, the US has ratcheted up pressure on Iran in a number of ways, particularly trying to shut off its oil exports by threatening its trading partners with economic sanctions. Ever since, there has been speculation that Iran might respond by interfering with the exports of American allies like Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates, which must pass through the Straits of Hormuz to get out of the Persian Gulf. The recent attacks could be that retaliation, or the attackers could be from other nations who want to see a war between the US and Iran, or even non-state actors trying to drive up the price of oil.

The even larger story is that Iran is a regional rival of two US allies: Saudi Arabia and Israel. Iran supports Hezbollah against Israel, and the Houthi rebels who are fighting the Saudis in the Yemeni Civil War. It is allied with the Assad regime in Syria, and is in a political struggle with the US for influence in Iraq.

There are reasons for Americans to be skeptical of a rush to war. National Security Adviser John Bolton has been advocating an attack against Iran since the Bush administration. In living memory, two disastrous wars have begun on false pretenses: the Gulf of Tonkin incident in Vietnam, and false reports about Saddam Hussein's WMD program in Iraq.

This is the kind of situation where an administration relies on its general credibility. Sadly, this administration has none. Trump says the tanker attack has "Iran written all over it". But then, Trump says a lot of things that turn out not to be true.

Matt Yglesias sums up in a tweetstorm:

It’s likely the Trump administration is lying about the tanker just because, in general, they are always lying. But it’s not central to the *policy question* which is dominated by the reality that Trump is single-handedly responsible for the downward spiral in relations. Trump blew up a painstakingly negotiated international agreement that the Iranians weren’t violating & then set about trying to destroy their economy. The only reasonable course of action is for us to climb down from this. The Iranian leadership is bad but nobody can articulate why it’s important that the United States heavily involve itself on the side of the also-bad leadership of Saudi Arabia and the UAE in a regional conflict that has nothing to do with us.

and Hong Kong

Ever since Hong Kong became part of China, Hong Kongers have been determined to maintain the special status they were promised. Recently, a law allowing extradition from Hong Kong to the mainland has caused hundreds of thousands (or perhaps millions) of demonstrators to take to the streets.

Hong Kong's China-appointed chief executive has backed down somewhat, suspending the proposed law indefinitely. But the demonstrators want it officially withdrawn from consideration, so protests continue.

and the first Democratic presidential debate

The field is set: Twenty candidates, split randomly into two groups of ten, appear on two nights. On Wednesday, June 26: New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro, former Maryland Rep. John Delaney, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, former Texas Rep. Beto O'Rourke, Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren

On Thursday, June 27: Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, former Vice President Joe Biden, South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, California Sen. Kamala Harris, former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, California Rep. Eric Swalwell, author Marianne Williamson, and businessman Andrew Yang.

Unlike the Republicans in 2016, it isn't going to be a major-candidates/minor-candidates split, but things sort of shook out that way: Five candidates consistently poll higher than 5%, and four of them -- Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg, and Harris -- wound up in the Thursday group. The fifth -- Warren -- is in the Wednesday group. This is probably a disadvantage for Warren, because everybody who isn't Joe Biden needs to be going up against Joe Biden.


There were two ways to qualify for these debates: major polls showing that you have measurable support, or a large number of donors in multiple states.

Candidates who didn't make the cut include Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton (my rep), and Miramar, Florida, Mayor Wayne Messam. They should take the hint and get out of the race. The qualifying criteria were fair and not that arduous. Twenty candidates is already too many. I hope we get down to ten fairly soon.

This is just my opinion, but in general I don't think running for president is an appropriate way to introduce yourself to the country. A major-party presidential nomination ought to be the culmination of a career in public service, during which you have championed a number of important causes. Long before you announce, people should have been saying, "I hope she (or he) runs for president someday."

Just don't ask me to square that view with the affection I'm developing for Mayor Pete. At the moment I'm leaning more towards Warren -- it's still early -- but whenever I see Buttigieg on TV, I find myself rooting for him to do well.


A Quinippiac poll has several major Democratic candidates ahead of Trump nationally: Biden 53%-40%, Sanders 51%-42%, Harris 49%-41%, Warren 49%-42%, Buttigieg 47%-42%, Booker 47%-42%. (Notice that Trump's support is almost the same in all those races; the difference is whether the non-Trump 58% have decided to support the Democrat yet or not. The poll provides little support for the idea that either Biden or Sanders is attracting significant numbers of Trump voters.)

538's Perry Bacon cautions against taking these polls too seriously. Historically, polls this far out from the election have been unreliable. Interestingly, the much-maligned 2016-cycle polls were closer to the final vote than most.

The last presidential election featured one of the more accurate sets of early polls for this point in the cycle: Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump 46.2 percent to 41.2 percent in an average of all polls conducted in November and December 2015, missing the eventual national popular vote margin by about 3 points. (The actual result was Clinton 48.0 percent, Trump 46.0 percent.)

538 founder Nate Silver also chides Bernie Sanders' campaign manager (Faiz Shakir) for pushing the theory that polls are underestimating Sanders' support because they undersample young voters.

Younger voters are harder to reach, but pollsters attempt to compensate for that by upweighting the younger voters they do reach to match their projected composition of the electorate, as @fshakir surely knows. This adds error/uncertainty, and primary polling is generally a rough enterprise, but the polls are probably about as likely to be overestimating Sanders as underestimating him.


Elizabeth Warren seems to be the tortoise in this race. After being written off early, she's been steadily gaining support. Some (but not all) polls now have her passing Sanders for second place. Trump appears to have noticed.

I have never figured out what segment of the population my social-media friends represent (they're certainly not an unbiased sample of the electorate), but for what it's worth they seem to be settling on Warren, who now also leads in the Daily Kos straw poll.

and you also might be interested in ...

Sarah Sanders is leaving as White House press secretary. According to The Beaverton, she is "looking forward to spending more time lying to her family".

Recently, Sanders has given up all the usual duties of a WHPS, like briefing the press. Why talk to the country, when you can just talk to those who live in the Fox News bubble?


AT&T promised to add 7,000 jobs if Trump's tax bill passed. Instead they've cut 23,000. They're not the only big corporation to pocket their tax windfall and do nothing for workers.


It's early to be worried about getting a new budget in place by the start of the 2020 fiscal year on October 1, or the increase in the debt limit that has to happen soon afterward, but the signs are not good: "We’re negotiating with ourselves right now," says Senate Appropriations Chair Richard Shelby. The White House and congressional Republicans are still looking for a common position they can take into negotiations with Democrats.


Nicholas Kristof points out that everything proponents think they know about the death penalty is wrong: It doesn't deter murderers; it's more expensive than a life sentence; a lot of extraneous factors influence who gets the death penalty; and (in spite of all the apparent safeguards) we're still executing innocent people.

but I went to an impeachment rally

Impeachment rallies happened all over the country Saturday, though it's hard to find much media coverage of them. I went to the one on Boston Common. I found the crowd size hard to estimate, but I'll guess there were 250-300 people.

Public pressure is the one thing that's been missing from the impeachment discussion. (The British did a much better job protesting Trump than we've done lately.) What's needed, I think, isn't one big march, but a regular series of events, on the model of the Moral Mondays in Raleigh. Rather than try to get the word out for this march or that one (I didn't hear about this rally until the day before, and could easily have missed it), it should become common knowledge that impeachment rallies are going to be held, say, on the first Saturday of every month.

I've discussed in the past the ways in which I think Nancy Pelosi's strategy makes sense. But its weakness is that it leaves the public confused. If we rally for impeachment, are we rallying for or against the Democratic leadership? The rally I attended had no real headline speaker; I think that probably hurt both the press coverage and the attendance. That's probably because big-name Democrats aren't sure what Pelosi wants them to do.


Speaking of Moral Mondays, Rev. William Barber led a group of clergy on a Moral Witness Wednesday march in front of the White House this week. Prior to the march, he tweeted:

Jeremiah 22 tells us that when political leaders abuse their office & hurt the poor, we must show up in person to deliver a prophetic indictment. Now is the time.

Pete Buttigieg, who has made a point of speaking out as a liberal Christian, did not march, but was part of the crowd waiting for the marchers in Lafayette Square.

and let's close with something mythic

Fenrir contemplates swallowing the Moon.

This picture is one of many interesting photos to be found on the Science Nature Facebook page.

Monday, June 10, 2019

With Feathers

Hope is the thing with feathers
That perches in the soul
And sings the tune without the words
And never stops at all.

- Emily Dickinson

This week's featured post is "We need hope, not optimism".

This week everybody was talking about tariffs on Mexico

The Mexican tariffs are over before they started. A deal with Mexico was announced Friday. Trumpists are declaring victory, while anti-Trumpists are saying that Mexico largely reiterated commitments it had already made. (This is similar to the new NAFTA agreement Trump negotiated. Just about everything that wasn't in the old NAFTA were concessions Mexico and Canada had already agreed to during the TPP negotiations.)

CNBC comments:

Whatever Mexican officials may promise the Trump administration, it’s unclear they would have the capacity to deliver. “Mexico’s immigration and refugee agencies are severely understaffed, under-resourced and overwhelmed by the increased numbers of Central Americans heading north,” [Tony] Wayne [of the Atlantic Council] said.

One way to judge the agreement will be whether the number of migrants apprehended at the US/Mexico border goes down (on an year-over-year basis; we already know apprehensions will go down over the summer because they always do). My prediction: Trump will be unhappy when the apprehension numbers come out, and the tariff threats will be back.

The deal means that we will never know whether Republicans in Congress were serious about trying to block the tariffs.

There are two bits of collateral damage from these negotiations: First, Trump has asserted his right to impose tariffs on any country at any time. So trade deals with the US are basically meaningless; why exactly should any country negotiate one? Second, if indeed more Central American migrants are held in Mexico while their American asylum requests are processed, what will happen to them there? Mexico itself has many of the violence and corruption problems they are fleeing in their home countries. I hope the media will pay attention to the human cost the deal imposes on these already-oppressed people.


The same CNBC article pulls back to take a broader view of the Mexico and China trade disputes.

U.S. economic weapons are the most potent in the world, and 88% of world trade is still done in dollars, although the U.S. share of global GDP has shrunk from nearly half after World War II to 38% in 1969 to about 24% now. That remains the case because for many years a good part of the world viewed this arrangement positively.

It remains to be seen – in Mexico, China and beyond – how much Trump will gain through his unique willingness to use economic weapons.

What’s clear already is that friends and rivals are more interested than ever before in exploring alternatives to the U.S.-dominated system. Such a transition would take many years, involve enormous costs and unfold in stages. However, consistent overuse of U.S. economic power has made the unthinkable more plausible.


Also on Friday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo downplayed the significance of climate change by saying:

Societies reorganize, we move to different places, we develop technology and innovation. I am convinced, I am convinced that we will do the things necessary as the climate changes.

Of course, if anyone tries to adjust to climate change by moving to the US, we'll stop them.

and straight pride

Apparently a "straight pride" parade has been scheduled for August 31 in Boston. The announcement garnered widespread derision, which may have been the point.

I find it hard to believe this event will actually happen, or that the organizers even want it to. If it does, I predict it will be a fairly pathetic event, because there just isn't much pent-up straight pride that has been unable to express itself until now. Growing up, I remember many sources of insecurity; but worrying that it might not be OK to be straight was not one of them.

Whether the parade happens or not, though, announcing it is a very effective trolling stunt, producing outraged quotes that can be cut-and-pasted into blog posts "proving" how much hatred and discrimination straights are expected to live with. You can already watch that happening here and here.

Here's my view: In general, overclasses just don't need special celebratory events. A White History Month is unnecessary, because the historical significance of white people is already being covered quite well. (Picture some tearful white boy desperately searching his textbooks for a hero who looks like him.) Ditto for a men's studies program. No scripture needs to remind us to remember the rich, because who can forget them? A White Lives Matter movement is superfluous, because white lives already do matter. And so on.

and Trump's European tour

He's back from Europe without breaking any treaties or calling for regime change in Belgium; I guess I should be happy. He insulted the Mayor of London and the Duchess of Sussex, and told the UK who their next prime minister ought to be, and let's not even talk about his ridiculous tux, but he didn't do anything really outrageous like expose himself to the Queen, so the trip was more-or-less a success.

Does it seem like we're lowering the bar for the President of the United States? I know it was a long time ago (or at least it seems that way), but didn't we expect more out of Barack Obama?


Isn't Photoshop wonderful? The picture above is fake, but I have to say it does capture something.


The ceremony to honor the sacrifices made by Allied soldiers at D-Day had to be pushed back 15 minutes while Trump gave an interview to Fox News' Laura Ingraham, in which he described House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as "a disaster" and Bob Mueller as a "fool". We used to say "politics stops at the water's edge", but that is another lost norm of American democracy.

We later found out that French President Macron was the actual cause of the delay, but Trump took credit for it:

Listen to those incredible people back there. These people are so amazing, and what they don’t realize is that I’m holding them up because of this interview, but that’s because it’s you. By the way, congratulations on your ratings. I’m very proud.

Ingraham then told her viewers to disregard what they had just heard the President say, because (you know) he says stuff.

Some of you may have heard or read that President Trump supposedly held up the entire D-Day ceremony in order to do this interview with me,. That is patently false — fake news.

and Biden's Hyde-Amendment reversal

The Hyde amendment is a piece of legislative boilerplate that has been added to appropriation bills ever since Rep. Henry Hyde got it passed in 1976. It prevents federal funding, i.e. Medicaid, from paying for abortions.

At the time, the amendment was viewed as an abortion compromise: Abortion would stay legal, but people who opposed it would know that their tax dollars weren't paying for it. In practice, though, it has meant that abortion is an option for wealthy and middle-class women, but not poor women. The result has been to keep women trapped in a cycle of poverty: early pregnancy results in early motherhood, which prevents a woman from finishing her education and starting a career that could launch her into the middle class.

Last week, Joe Biden stood virtually alone as a Democratic presidential candidate who still supported the Hyde Amendment. That position was part of his tolerant, don't-poke-the-bear attitude toward Republicans in general: show some willingness to make reasonable compromises and trust that they'll do the same.

The problem here is that anti-abortion forces are showing no signs of compromise. Instead, they're pushing to make abortion completely illegal in places like Alabama and Missouri. If they're going to send doctors to jail, what exactly are we getting in return for our tolerance and understanding?

Thursday night, Biden reversed himself. He's now against the Hyde Amendment.

This is both good and bad for his candidacy. For many (me, for example) Hyde is a bridge too far: I care more about women trapped in a cycle of poverty than about the sensitive consciences of anti-abortion zealots. (If they want to reduce abortions, they can help us make contraception more easily available.) Biden has never been my top choice among Democratic candidates, but I hadn't written him off until the Hyde flap. Now that he's recanted that position, I've returned him to convince-me status.

On the downside, the inherent weakness of a moderate position is that it can seem opportunistic or even wishy-washy. It's one thing to have middle-of-the-road beliefs, and something else to shift with the winds of public opinion. Biden's change of heart makes it harder to argue that he comes from a place of deep principle.


Any time I criticize or express doubts about a leading Democrat, I feel obligated to remind everyone of this: Biden is infinitely better than Trump. If he gets the nomination, I'll support him every way I can.

but we shouldn't lose sight of the abuses on our border

Jonathan Katz at the LA Times urges us to call the border detention camps what they are: concentration camps. He recounts the series of recent incidents: deaths in custody, herding people into small spaces, not providing adequate medical care, isolation cells for people who are not dangerous, locking children in vans for more than 24 hours at a time, and an end to many educational and recreational services for minors at the camps.

He then comments:

Preventing mass outrage at a system like this takes work. Certainly it helps that the news media covers these horrors intermittently rather than as snowballing proof of a racist, lawless administration. But most of all, authorities prevail when the places where people are being tortured and left to die stay hidden, misleadingly named and far from prying eyes.

There’s a name for that kind of system. They’re called concentration camps. You might balk at my use of the term. That’s good — it’s something to be balked at.

He quotes Hannah Arendt:

The human masses sealed off in [the camps] are treated as if they no longer existed, as if what happened to them were no longer of interest to anybody, as if they were already dead.

Andrea Pitzer, who has written a history of concentration camps, posted a tweetstorm on Trump's camps:

The longer a camp system stays open, the more predictable things will go wrong (contagious diseases, malnutrition, mental health issues). In addition, every significant camp system has also introduced new horrors of its own, that were unforeseen when that system was opened.

What's especially ominous about Trump's concentration camps is that the rhetoric of cruelty is already widely accepted among Trump's supporters: These people shouldn't have come here, so we can do whatever we want to them.

Of course this system is going to attract sadists and repel people of conscience. And of course the sadists will do as much as they're allowed to in an environment where no one is paying attention.

and you also might be interested in ...

UU World just published my review of three books about fascism: Jason Stanley's How Fascism Works, Timothy Snyder's The Road to Unfreedom, and Yascha Mounk's The People Versus Democracy. I've already discussed Snyder's book at more length on this blog, and the other two have been mentioned now and then.


Here's how skewed things have gotten in Alabama: Not even rich people can speak their minds without reprisal any more if they support abortion rights. Hugh Culverhouse Jr. denounced the state's recent decision to criminalize abortion, and called on students to boycott U of A until the state relented.

In reaction, the University's law school sent back his $26.5 million and took his name off their building. Culverson responded with this:

There will be no winners in the wake of the decision Alabama has made to attack the constitutional rights of women. The state will become more divided and isolated, and it will be people such as the future students of the University of Alabama law school who will suffer the consequences. Whether my name is taken down is unimportant, but I hope university administrators will contemplate all the names that will never appear on their admissions rolls, as well.

The U of A business school will continue to be named for Culverhouse's father, who also supported abortion rights.


Esquire comments on a new report by OpenSecrets on Trump's widespread conflicts of interest.

It increasingly appears the President of the United States has business holdings all over the world that are drowning in shady money. ... The level of lying, corruption, conflicts of interest, and other malfeasance here is just gobsmacking.

And WaPo's Plum Line column pulls together a series of incidents where people wanting favors found ways to put money in Trump's pocket.


The White House blocked the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research from submitting testimony to the House Intelligence Committee "on the grounds that its description of climate science did not mesh with the administration’s official stance".

the Trump administration is debating how best to challenge the idea that the burning of fossil fuels is warming the planet and could pose serious risks unless the world makes deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade.

The Washington Post summarized what the White House found objectionable:

The Bureau of Intelligence and Research’s 12-page prepared testimony, reviewed by The Washington Post, includes a detailed description of how rising greenhouse gas emissions are raising global temperatures and acidifying the world’s oceans. It warns that these changes are contributing to the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

“Climate-linked events are disruptive to humans and societies when they harm people directly or substantially weaken the social, political, economic, environmental, or infrastructure systems that support people,” the statement reads, noting that while some populations may benefit from climate change. “The balance of documented evidence to date suggests that net negative effects will overwhelm the positive benefits from climate change for most of the world, however.”

The senior director for emerging technologies at the National Security Council, Will Happer, is a long-time climate-change denier. He reportedly is advocating for a panel of climate-deniers to "conduct an 'update' of the National Climate Assessment" that will make it more friendly to the fossil-fuel industry.


The government just found a novel way to save $40 billion: reclassify high-level nuclear waste as low-level nuclear waste, so that it can be disposed of more easily. What could go wrong?

The waste is housed at the Savannah River Plant in South Carolina, the Idaho National Laboratory and Hanford Nuclear Reservation in Washington state – the most contaminated nuclear site in the country.

The explanation sounds like it could possibly make sense:

The old definition of high-level waste was based on how the materials were produced, while the new definition will be based on their radioactive characteristics – the standard used in most countries, the energy department said.

The old definition said high-level radioactive waste resulted from a military production stream, [Undersecretary of Energy Paul] Dabbar said. That meant, for instance, that all the waste from plutonium production at Hanford was classified as high level.

It was a “one-size-fits-all approach that has led to decades of delay, cost billions of dollars, and left the waste trapped in DOE facilities in the states of South Carolina, Washington and Idaho without a permanent disposal solution”, the agency said.

But this is where we see the cost of this administration's constant lying, and the appointment of a know-nothing like Rick Perry as Energy Secretary. (Obama's first secretary of energy, remember, was a Nobel laureate. Dabbar is a little more qualified than Perry: He may have come to the government from investment banking, but before that he was an officer on a nuclear submarine, though his official bio doesn't say what his responsibilities were.) There are times when the government really is playing it straight and needs the public to trust that it's doing the right thing. But how can we?


I agree with Michael Gerson so seldom that I feel like I have to mention it when I do. In a recent WaPo column, he responded to Franklin Graham's call for a Day of Prayer to support President Trump. Gerson first recalled that praying for a nation's leaders is fairly common in the Christian tradition and ought to be uncontroversial. But Graham is asking God for a little more than is usually considered proper.

Graham made clear that the real purpose of the event was not to pray for the president, but to pray in his political favor. “President Trump’s enemies continue to try everything to destroy him, his family and the presidency,” Graham said. “In the history of our country, no president has been attacked as he has.” The American Family Association described the day of prayer as a type of “spiritual warfare,” necessary because Trump’s many accomplishments “make him very unpopular with the Devil and the kingdom of darkness.”

Who are the “enemies” that Graham had in mind? Who represents “the kingdom of darkness”? The Democratic Party? Robert S. Mueller III and the “deep state”? Never-Trump Republicans?

However the conspiracy against the president is defined, I suppose I am part of it. Having been accused of serving the Prince of Darkness, I feel justified in making a frank response.

Gerson goes on to call Graham's event "blasphemy" and "an abomination" and suggests that Graham has sold out Christ in favor of Trump.

For a minister of the gospel, making Christ secondary to anything is the dereliction of a sacred duty. Making the gospel secondary to the political fortunes of Donald Trump is betrayal compounded with farce.


Sean Hannity thinks it's "despicable" that Nancy Pelosi wants to see a political opponent (Trump) in locked up. "That happens in Banana Republics," he says.


I'm not sure what I find so morbidly fascinating about incels, the "involuntarily celibate" men who believe their looks unfairly doom them to lives without the hot chicks they otherwise deserve.

New York Magazine's Alice Hines uncovers the world of incel plastic surgery, where strong jaw-lines and broad shoulders are created in order to turn incels into "Chads" -- the incel name for the small percentage of men who get all the sex.

and let's close with something award-winning

Saturday I was at a birthday party in Vermont when people started telling me about this neighbor they knew, Anais Mitchell, who kind of came from nowhere (other than down the road) and created a musical and would be up for a Tony award Sunday night.

I hardly ever make it into New York, so I don't keep track of what's on Broadway, and had never heard of Mitchell's musical Hadestown, which was the big winner with 8 awards, including one for Mitchell's score.

Here's the audio of "Why We Build the Wall" from Hadestown, which was written before Trump became president. Like a wall, the logic of the song builds verse by verse until it eventually encloses itself:

 
What do we have that they should want?
My children, my children
What do we have that they should want?
What do we have that they should want?
We have a wall to work upon!
We have work and they have none.
And our work is never done
My children, my children,
And the war is never won.
The enemy is poverty,
And the wall keeps out the enemy,
And we build the wall to keep us free.
That's why we build the wall:
We build the wall to keep us free