Monday, April 27, 2026

Don't Start

The best way to achieve what is now the central war aim — opening the Strait — would have been simply not to start the war in the first place.

- Josh Marshall

This week's featured posts are "Where the Gerrymandering Battle Stands After Virginia" and "Fixing the Asylum Mess".

Ongoing stories

  • Trump's assault on American democracy. Now that gerrymandering has failed as a strategy for hanging onto power, I eagerly await Trump's next move.
  • Climate change. Check out George Manbiot's column on the possible collapse of the the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.
  • The Iran/Lebanon War. Formal peace talks aren't happening. Saturday, Trump told Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff to stay home for now. Iran is offering to re-open the Strait of Hormuz to end the war, essentially offering Trump no gain from it.
  • Ukraine. Here's the Institute for the Study of War's current update.

This week's developments

This week everybody was talking about gerrymandering

That's the subject of one featured post.

and the shooting at the White House Correspondents' Dinner

Saturday, a gunman fired several shots during the dinner, which President Trump and many other administration officials were attending. The shots were audible inside the ballroom, but none of the guests were injured.

From a pure how-could-this-happen point of view, I found the analysis at the Doomsday Scenario blog informative and down to Earth. Garrett Graff is a journalist who has attended past WHC dinners and has written extensively about presidential security. He thinks the security plan worked pretty well: It's unreasonable to expect the Secret Service to lock down an entire hotel that has multiple unrelated events and guests, so the goal is to stop would-be attackers well before they get within range of the president. That's what happened Saturday.

My political response is that I'm glad the attack was unsuccessful. Anyone who reads this blog regularly knows that I consider the Trump regime to be the greatest threat to American democracy since the Civil War, and I have no great affection for Trump as a person. But I think we're on track to restore the constitutional order through the electoral system, as the Founders intended and as Hungary has recently done. Anything that sends us off on a violent trajectory is a risk I'd rather not take.

Speaking frankly, the attack was fortuitously timed for Trump, perhaps breaking a cycle that sees his popularity touch new lows with each poll. Given the boost his 2024 campaign got from a failed assassination attempt, it's hard not to be suspicious. But I'm not going to push any conspiracy theories unless substantial evidence presents itself. I'd be far more suspicious if the shooter hadn't survived to tell his own story.

Dean Blundell (who is a little too rabidly anti-Trump for my taste) noted that it only took minutes to start the talking point that "This is why the White House needs its own ballroom."

Predictably, the media is asking Democrats if they regret their anti-Trump rhetoric, and completely ignoring the overall rhetorical environment. Trump himself is by far the greatest source of inflammatory rhetoric, often referring to his opponents or critics as insane or treasonous.

and the war

Not much new to say. Trump continues to want to dictate terms to Iran as if he had won the war. Iran doesn't feel defeated and won't be dictated to. The Obama agreement that Trump tore up looks better and better all the time.

and the Southern Poverty Law Center

The latest example of politicization at the Department of Justice is the indictment of the Southern Poverty Law Center.

Everyone more-or-less agrees on the basic facts: The SPLC paid people to infiltrate various right-wing and white-supremacist groups, as it has done for decades. Since their agents were undercover, the SPLC didn't publicize their work. DOJ is charging that this was a fraud against SPLC's contributors. I haven't given money to the SPLC in years, but I'm still probably fairly representative of their donors. I would not feel defrauded.

and you also might be interested in ...

Early direct consequence of the Hungarian election: The EU approved a $106 billion loan to Ukraine.


Friday, Trump fired all 24 members of the National Science Foundation's governing board. This is exactly what it appears to be: a move to make scientific research less independent and more partisan.


Remember the Afghans who are in trouble with the Taliban because they helped us? We've got 1100 of them housed at a military base in Qatar, and we've made them this amazing offer: Go to the Congo or go home to the Taliban.


Texas Tech has gone even further than banning LGBTQ-friendly majors and courses. It even bans sexual-orientation and gender-identity as topics for student research.


Canary Media makes the case against biofuels, which sound like a great idea but often aren't. Not only do biofuel crops (like corn) have a high carbon footprint in the US, but internationally they encourage cropland expansion that results in deforestation. Sadly, both parties have latched onto biofuels as a good idea.

Democrats need a new approach to agriculture, focused less on the 1% of Americans who farm and more on the 100% who eat. That would mean redistributing less money from ordinary taxpayers to the biggest farmers who grow the most common row crops, while also opposing the tariffs, price supports, and biofuel mandates that raise prices at the supermarket. Let Trump stand for giving farmers ​“much better than a level playing field.” Democrats should stand with everybody else.


Small farmers are in trouble this year: Thanks to the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, fertilizer and diesel fuel costs are way up. Most farmers voted for Trump.


Trump and his allies have been having a hard time in court. Laura Loomer's $150 million lawsuit against Bill Maher (for saying on his comedy show that Trump "might be" f**king Loomer) was thrown out -- at least partly because of evidence the claim was true.

And a federal judge appears skeptical of Trump's $10 billion shake-down of the Treasury. He's suing the IRS because some of his tax information got leaked to the media during his first term. Conceivably there might be damage there, but nothing like $10 billion. But that's not what's bothering the judge: Since Trump oversees the IRS, he controls both sides of the litigation. He is essentially in a position to award himself money.

The No Kings protester who dressed as a penis holding a "No Dick Tater" sign is not guilty of whatever police in Fairhope, Alabama tried to charge her with. Attempting to show the woman was trying to get arrested, the prosecution called her husband to the stand as a surprise witness, and asked if he had brought bail money to the protest.

“I always make sure I have bail money!” Fletcher replied emphatically, as if this should be the most obvious thing in the world. Did he have bail money on him now? “Yeah!” Fletcher exclaimed, then gestured broadly. “With this many cops around? Come on.” The room erupted with laughter.


Massachusetts is encouraging the installation of giant batteries to even out solar power.


and let's close with a blast from the past

Musical comedian Victor Borge was quite popular in my youth, but has largely been forgotten. Enjoy.

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