Monday, October 24, 2022

Playing Defense

No Sift next week. The next new articles will post on November 7.

The greatest way to defend democracy is to make it work.

- Tommy Douglas

This week's featured posts are three separate closing arguments for (1) why you should vote, and (2) why you should vote for Democrats. "Closing argument: Democracy", "Closing argument: Abortion", and "Closing argument: Biden's accomplishments".

This week everybody was talking about the midterm elections

https://claytoonz.com/2022/10/19/debating-maga/

Since I won't be blogging next Monday, I decided to post my closing arguments today. (Otherwise they'd appear the day before the election, which seems too late to convince anybody.) I encourage you to send these links to anybody you think needs to see them.

and the UK

https://theweek.com/political-satire/1017709/the-revolving-door

Liz Truss' reign as prime minister is over after about six weeks. She's the third PM in a row to have a short tenure: David Cameron served a respectable six years before leaving in 2016 after the Brexit referendum. He was replaced by Theresa May, who resigned in 2019 because she couldn't get a Brexit agreement negotiated and approved. Boris Johnson lasted for three chaotic years before resigning in scandal in July, but not actually leaving office until September.

Truss came into office promoting a big tax-cuts-for-the-rich plan that was (1) deeply unpopular with voters and (2) spooked the capital markets, sending the pound plunging. (For what it's worth, Trump economic advisor Larry Kudlow loved it, and claimed Truss' plan looked just like what Kevin McCarthy wants to do if he becomes Speaker.)

Now she's resigned too, and it looks like Rishi Sunak is going to replace her.

The Conservative Party (home of everybody I've mentioned so far) still has a majority in Parliament and doesn't have to hold new elections until 2024. But its polls have crashed and there's general acclaim for holding elections sooner, which is a thing that can happen in the British system. We'll see.

As for what this is all about, Vox interviews Johns Hopkins Professor Matthias Matthijs, who claims these years of instability trace back to Brexit.

There is one clear root cause of Britain’s woes, according to Matthijs: Brexit. The vote to Leave or Remain in the EU, he says, scrambled UK partisan affiliations and created new, polarized political identities around one dominant issue. The decision to leave unleashed serious economic aftershocks, which were impossible to ignore or paper over indefinitely. The result has been a chaotic, unsteady Britain, battling social malaise and political upheaval in the aftermath of the pandemic and amid an inflation crisis sweeping the global economy.

and Trump legal notices

https://theweek.com/political-satire/1017655/the-great-garland

Trump is facing so many legal challenges these days that you really can't tell the players without a program. This summary of the week's events may be incomplete.


Friday, the January 6 committee subpoenaed Trump. The subpoena says:

[W]e have assembled overwhelming evidence ... that you personally orchestrated and oversaw a multi-part effort to overturn the 2020 presidential election and to obstruct the peaceful transfer of power. ... Because of your central role in each element of these actions, the Select Committee unanimously directed the issuance of a subpoena seeking your testimony and relevant documents in your possession.

No doubt he'll run out the clock until the committee dissolves at the end of the year. But that will make him look weak and cowardly compared to Hillary Clinton, who faced the Republican Benghazi Committee for 11 hours and ate their lunch.


Wednesday, Trump gave a deposition under oath in the civil suit where E. Jean Carroll is charging him with defamation. In a memoir she published in 2019, Carroll claimed Trump had raped her in a department store dressing room in the mid-1990s. Trump told reporters that she was "totally lying" and that he never knew her, a claim that became suspicious when The Cut published a picture of them (with spouses) talking at a party in 1987. Trump managed to delay his deposition for years, but he finally had to do it. (The deposition isn't public, so I don't really know, but my bet is that he sounded like a dementia patient, and just kept repeating "I don't remember." That's how his written testimony in the Mueller investigation was.)


The Trump Organization's trial for tax fraud starts today. The case is related to the charges for which CFO Allen Weisselberg has already pleaded guilty. Trump himself has not been indicted.


Also on Wednesday, a federal judge ruled that Trump lawyer John Eastman (the guy who came up with the Mike-Pence-can-decide-the-presidency theory) has to turn a number of Trump-related emails over to the January 6 committee. Eastman had claimed attorney/client privilege, but the judge invoked the crime/fraud exception to that privilege. The judge's order says:

The emails show that President Trump knew that the specific numbers of voter fraud were wrong but continued to tout those numbers, both in court and to the public. The Court finds that these emails are sufficiently related to and in furtherance of a conspiracy to defraud the United States.


The special master reviewing the non-classified documents the FBI seized in their search of Mar-a-Lago -- the one Trump nominated himself -- is getting impatient with some of Trump's bizarre claims, like that a document can be personal, and yet also subject to executive privilege. Trump has never grasped that president was a role he played; it did not adhere to his person.

Meanwhile, WaPo reported this:

At least one of the documents seized by the FBI describes Iran’s missile program, according to these people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe an ongoing investigation. Other documents described highly sensitive intelligence work aimed at China, they said.

Unauthorized disclosures of specific information in the documents would pose multiple risks, experts say. People aiding U.S. intelligence efforts could be endangered, and collection methods could be compromised. In addition, other countries or U.S. adversaries could retaliate against the United States for actions it has taken in secret.

Clearly, nothing to worry about.


Lindsey Graham appealed to the Supreme Court in a last-ditch attempt to get out of testifying to the Fulton County, Georgia grand jury about his possible interference in the 2020 election. I've got to wonder what question he is afraid to answer under oath, that it's worth going to this much trouble.


Friday, Steve Bannon was sentenced to four months in prison for contempt of Congress. He defied a subpoena from the January 6 committee similar to the one Trump got. (Again: What question is he afraid of?) His sentence won't begin until his appeals are exhausted, but he's going to jail eventually, because this case is really really simple: He got a legal subpoena and he didn't show up.

Meanwhile, his completely unrelated fraud trial should start in November.

and John Durham's final whimper

The Durham investigation was supposed to uncover some huge anti-Trump plot inside the Deep State, and demonstrate that the Trump/Russia investigation was based on politics rather than evidence. Trump promised it would uncover "the crime of the century", and claimed Durham was "coming up with things far bigger than anybody thought possible".

But as so often happens with Trump's claims, when it's time to produce evidence they come up short. It happened again in the Igor Danchenko case, which concluded Tuesday with an acquittal. The jury deliberated for only nine hours, and a juror quoted by the Washington Post said there were "no holdouts".

As in the Sussman case, the only other Durham indictment that went to trial, the charge was that someone lied to the FBI, not that the FBI investigation itself was corrupt or ill-founded. And even that small claim could not be proved to a jury. Danchenko's lawyer said:

If this trial has proven anything, it’s that the special counsel’s investigation was focused on proving crimes at any cost as opposed to investigating whether any occurred

Charlie Savage and Linda Qiu of the NYT point out that Durham applied very different standards when he was investigating CIA torture during the Bush administration.

At the time, Mr. Durham had set a high bar for charges and for releasing information related to the investigation. Throughout his 2008-2012 investigation, he found no one he deemed worthy of indictment even though two detainees had died in the C.I.A.’s custody, and he fought a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit to avoid disclosing to the public his findings and witness interview records.

Durham's grand jury has expired with no other indictments outstanding, so this looks like the end of the line for his long, expensive, and unproductive investigation. He'll produce a report that will probably make his master happy by rehashing all the conspiracy theories he did not prove. But in the end "the crime of the century" has resulted in two acquittals, one minor guilty plea, and no one going to jail.

and you also might be interested in ...

Last Monday, WaPo revealed one more way that the Trump Organization had scammed the government: Family members with Secret Service protection stayed in Trump hotels, which then overcharged the agents who protected them.

The records show that in 40 cases the Trump Organization billed the Secret Service far higher amounts than the approved government rate — in one case charging agents $1,185 a night to stay at the Trump International Hotel in D.C. The new billing documents, according to a congressional committee’s review, show that U.S. taxpayers paid the president’s company at least $1.4 million for Secret Service agents’ stays at Trump properties for his and his family’s protection.

That $1,185 was five times the government rate, and the $1.4 million doesn't include payments to Trump's Mar-a-Lago or Bedminster properties, which he frequently visited as president.

Eric Trump's previous claims that agents got discounted rates or stayed "free", and that the government "saved a fortune", appear to be lies.

https://theweek.com/political-satire/1017627/pricey-chocolate

Back in August, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announced with great fanfare that his new Election Crimes Office had arrested 20 Floridians who had voted illegally in 2020. This was seen on the Right as evidence that voter fraud is rampant and that more states should have their own ECOs.

From the beginning, though, the cases seemed a bit off. The 20 were all people who had been in prison, and who believed (incorrectly, it turned out) that the 2018 referendum returning felon voting rights applied to them. So they registered, were sent voter cards by local election officials, and then voted.

Since the 20 were confused and the government itself erred by approving their registrations, simply revoking those registrations seems like an adequate response. But instead the ECO charged them with a third-degree felony punishable by up to five years in prison. (The point seems to be to terrorize people who aren't sure about their eligibility. It's a voter-suppression tactic.)

Friday, the first case came to court, and the charges were dismissed because the state prosecutors have no jurisdiction.

Statewide prosecutors, which are an extension of the Attorney General's office, are prosecuting all of the election fraud cases that were brought in August. In order for the statewide prosecutor to have jurisdiction, the crimes alleged must have occurred in at least two judicial circuits.

The judge agreed with the defense's argument that the alleged violations, applying to vote and voting while ineligible, only occurred in Miami-Dade County. Thus, the statewide prosecutor was found to not have jurisdiction.

Statewide prosecutors argued that the alleged crimes were committed in Leon County in addition to Miami-Dade County, because the defendants' applications and votes were later transmitted to the Department of State in Tallahassee.

In other words, this whole story is yet another DeSantis stunt that got him headlines without accomplishing anything other than harassing some powerless people. If there is in fact a vast conspiracy of illegal voters, Florida still has not uncovered it.


Ten years ago, Rick Perlstein (author of all those history-of-the-conservative-movement books like Nixonland and Reaganland) explored the connection between conservative politics and hucksterism in "The Long Con". It turns out that if you're selling something of no particular value, a mailing list of conservative donors is a gold mine, because the conservative movement is a self-selected group of people who are easily fooled.

I mean, if you believe that 1-6 was an antifa plot or Trump is God's anointed, the sky's pretty much the limit, isn't it?

Updating Perlstein's points a little, Alex Jones makes his money selling overpriced dietary supplements, and Tucker Carlson's show is sponsored by dubious products that promise to treat your diabetes or get rid of your toe fungus, made by companies that frequently get in trouble with the FDA. (If you needed to sell such products, where would you look for suckers? That communist FDA -- it's constantly tying creative entrepreneurs in red tape and keeping you from using products that work. Am I right?)

But this week we got an even more striking example of the pattern. A right-wing blogger known as Vox Day has been raising money to make a right-wing superhero movie based on the conservative-themed comic-book character Rebel, whose Wonder-Woman-like costume includes the Confederate battle flag's X of stars across her face and chest. The script, written by Day and Chuck Dixon, has her battling "a global police force hunting down freethinking conservatives".

A plot ripped right out of today's headlines, don't you think?

Day claims to have raised $1 million, which he put in escrow in hopes of leveraging it into enough financing to make the film (which is already listed on IMDB and had a trailer on Vimeo until ... well, we'll get to that).

To hold the money, Theodore Beale (Vox Day's real-life alter ego) turned to cryptocurrency billionaire James Wolfgramm, whose firm Ohana Capital Finance promises "banking to the unbankable".

And guess what? The million dollars is gone, and it turns out Wolfgramm wasn't really a billionaire at all. So (sorry, early investors) there's not going to be a movie. Who (other than Rick Perlstein) could have imagined?

But don't worry, Beale is not discouraged and is already working on a new project. I'm sure you'll be hearing from him soon.

and let's close with something super, sort of

This week I ran across The Mediocre Superheroes, an online comic strip that I find hilarious. There's an article about it here, or you could just browse.

Monday, October 17, 2022

Roads Not Taken

The misgovernment of the American people is misgovernment by the American people.

- Lincoln Steffens, The Shame of the Cities (1904)

This is our last election. It is fascism or communism. We are at the crossroads. I take the road to fascism.

- Father Charles Coughlin (1936)

This week's featured post is "American Democracy has been in trouble before".

This week everybody was talking about the upcoming elections

https://theweek.com/political-satire/1017532/america-inside-out

Polls seem to be tipping back towards Republicans as inflation continues and the stock market keeps falling. But it's not too late for them to turn again.

Conventional wisdom says Democrats should hope voters are thinking about abortion or democracy or Trump rather than the economy. But I wonder if perhaps the Democrats' closing message ought to focus on what Republicans will do to the economy if they win one or both houses of Congress: They'll sabotage it, like they did when Obama was president.

That seems pretty obvious, but not many Democrats are talking about it.

Republicans are already promising a return to their Obama-era hostage-taking policies. If they get hold of any lever of power, you can count on them to force government shutdowns and to play chicken with the debt ceiling. If the Fed succeeds in starting a recession, they'll try to make it worse with spending cuts.

When I imagine a debt-ceiling crisis, the worst thing is that the MAGA generation of right-wing radicals is significantly dumber than the Tea Party generation. Ted Cruz may have pretended otherwise, but he always knew what a disaster it would be if the US defaulted on its debt. I don't think Marjorie Taylor Greene does, and I can't see Kevin McCarthy standing up to her, especially if Trump thinks a global economic panic will help him in 2024.

https://theweek.com/political-satire/1017493/biden-did-that

and Ukraine

Unable to win on the front lines, Putin seems to have settled on a Battle-of-Britain strategy. He's raining destruction on Ukrainian cities in hope of breaking the people's will. It didn't work for Hitler, but I guess you never know.

and the Trump subpoena

https://theweek.com/political-satire/1017533/the-big-climb

The January 6 Committee held another hearing on Thursday. I didn't feel like I learned much that was new, but the Committee did bolster what might be its closing argument: January 6 wasn't a rally that got out of control. Rather, it was the culmination of a plot to steal the 2020 election that Trump was already hatching the summer before.

The conclusion of the hearing was a unanimous vote to subpoena Trump himself. I think it's extremely unlikely that Trump will ever testify to the Committee, which goes out of business on January 1 and certainly won't be renewed if Republicans get control of the House. But issuing the subpoena does establish a key point: Trump isn't telling his side of the story because he doesn't want to, not because the Committee doesn't want to hear it.

and other egregious malefactors

https://theweek.com/political-satire/1017491/stuffed

A Connecticut jury decided Alex Jones owes the Sandy Hook families nearly $1 billion. That's on top of the $50 million a Texas jury awarded earlier this year, and it doesn't count possible punitive damages still to be assessed by the judge.

Most observers believe Jones doesn't have a billion dollars, though he does have considerably more than he claims. (Somewhere in the hundreds of millions, probably.) Declaring bankruptcy probably won't save him.

When the last appeal ends, the experts predict Jones will be left owing many millions of dollars to the Sandy Hook families he defamed in his broadcasts, in addition to other creditors chasing him through bankruptcy court.

“Alex Jones probably doesn’t have much of a project in life at this point other than beating these kinds of money judgments,” said UConn law professor Minor Meyers. “By and large, he is going to have a hard time earning money without immediately being forced to hand it over. He may really enjoy being a radio personality, but I can’t imagine he wants to do it pro bono.”


Steve Bannon's contempt-of-Congress trial has moved to the sentencing phase. The government is asking for a six month prison sentence, rather than the maximum two years.


So Sean Hannity played a recording of a Biden phone message to his son Hunter from October, 2018. (Obtained how, exactly?) It revealed Biden as a compassionate father trying to support a troubled son.

It’s Dad. I called to tell you I love you. I love you more than the whole world, pal. You gotta get some help. I don’t know what to do. I know you don’t either. I’m here, no matter what you need. No matter what you need, I love you.

For some reason, Hannity appeared to consider this a "gotcha" of some sort, which says more about Hannity than he probably intended to reveal.

I keep seeing tweets from people who made some mistakes in their lives and wish their parents had been more like Joe Biden.


Perhaps the most interesting thing about Tucker Carlson's interview with Kanye West is how Carlson edited out Kanye's anti-semitism to fit the story he wanted to tell.

Media Matters' Matt Gertz has the details, along with this summary of Tucker's overall message and mission.

Tucker Carlson Tonight revolves around an antisemitic conspiracy theory. The host posits that a cabal of global elites controls the heights of U.S. politics, media, culture, and business, and is using its power to corrupt American children, destroy western civilization, and replace its population with immigrants.

Carlson’s innovation is that he generally deracinates these familiar antisemitic tropes. While open white supremacists might argue, for example, that Jews are using immigration to replace the white population with a black and brown one, Carlson tells his viewers that elites like the financier George Soros (who is Jewish) are replacing “legacy Americans” with people from “far-away countries” in the “third world.”

Carlson’s stated worldview is close enough that neo-Nazis regularly praise his show for mainstreaming their blood-soaked positions. But Carlson’s careful use of language, and his furious denials that he is a racist, give the Fox brass just enough plausible deniability that they can continue to defend and support his program. 

but maybe we should be talking about nuclear power

This week, the stock broker I inherited from my father tossed out a speculative idea: NuScale Power. He said he couldn't recommend it, because he wasn't sure exactly what the company does. But one of his other clients had done the research and was very hot on it. So it might be something to look into, given that my portfolio has been light on energy stocks ever since I purged my fossil-fuel holdings.

The symbol for the stock is SMR, which turns out to stand for "small modular reactor", a new generation of nuclear power plants that promise to be smaller, safer, easier to build, and less one-of-a-kind than current nuclear power plants. The environmental news site Grist had a mostly favorable article about SMRs in 2020.

While it’s true that renewable energy is cheap now, most energy wonks think it will get expensive when renewables are powering the entire grid, which will require building lots of batteries to deal with fluctuations in the sun and wind. Sure, there are studies suggesting it wouldn’t be prohibitively expensive to power the country purely on renewables, but the most accurate ones — which model the nitty-gritty details of how electrical systems work — tend to show that the best way to keep renewable power cheap is by having a source of clean energy that can be turned up when wind dies and the sun is hiding behind the clouds, said Matt Bowen, a research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy, at Columbia University.

“In the energy world, there are really two camps: The all-renewables camp and everyone else,” he said. “I’m with everyone else.”

The negative case was outlined by Farhad Manjoo last month in the NYT: At best, nuclear power is the expensive kind of power you throw into a low-CO2-emission system when its renewables-and-batteries component is failing to keep up with demand. Manjoo recognizes the potential of SMRs, but if you have to do research to make a power-generation system work, why not spend your research dollars on better renewables and batteries? (And I'll add this: There's still no long-term storage plan for the radioactive waste.)

In the end, I decided SMR is not for me (which is one reason I feel no ethical qualms about discussing it here; I'm not touting a stock I own). Even if nuclear does have a role to play in the transition to a low-carbon-emission future, that role looks purely transitional to me. So a nuclear power-plant construction company doesn't seem like a good long-term investment. If I bought into the industry now, I'd also have to figure out when to sell.

and you also might be interested in ...

One of the most important topics in political research is just how social media contributes to political polarization. A new study in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences has a surprising answer. (The study itself is behind a paywall, but an article about it is here.)

Most people think social media is polarizing because it isolates you inside an echo chamber. You are constantly hearing people agree with you that Trump or Biden is a villain, so there's no reason you should change your mind.

The study says it doesn't work quite that way. What establishes and hardens a political identity is that social media also exposes you to opposition. You solidify as this or that when you argue with people on the other side.

We shouldn’t think of the internet as an “echo chamber” in which our arguments are repeated back to us until we get more and more convinced. I think it’s more like the island in the Lord of the Flies: it creates a social space that affords the emergence of separate social groups, it strengthens collective identities, and pushes opposing groups into conflict. This leads to a form of politics that is based on cycles of conflict between two warring tribes.


Slate examines just how hard it is for a transman to get breast-reduction surgery. Anti-trans mythology imagines doctors all too eager to prey on impressionable people, especially minors, by pushing irreversible gender-affirming treatments. The article claims exactly the opposite is true.

This detail sounds especially weird:

It is, after all, much easier for cis people to get plastic surgery than for trans people to get gender-affirming care. In 2020, there were 15.6 million cosmetic procedures performed in the U.S., according to the American Society of Plastic Surgeons. Breast augmentations were one of the most popular surgeries, with 3,223 of these procedures performed on people aged 13 to 19.

If that sounds OK to you, but you still object to a similarly aged person with a female birth certificate getting their breasts reduced, you might want to think some more about that.


Apropos of nothing, Dan Kois' retrospective on Rod McKuen is fascinating. Kois is too young to remember when McKuen sold poetry books by the millions and was the kind of celebrity poets never get to be.

But by the time I was a teenager, he had completely vanished from the cultural landscape. I only know of him because I spent the entire 1990s in thrift stores and used bookshops, and everywhere I went, I saw Rod McKuen’s name.

Eventually, Kois' article turns into a meditation on cultural memory.

One of the weird contradictions of living in the future is that every artist is at the tip of your fingers, but you can only find who your fingers know to search for. In the not-so-distant past, artists could avoid slipping away thanks to only the physical evidence: a record in a thrift store, a used book with a man in a white turtleneck on its cover, murmuring to the bewildered shopper, “Who am I? To whom did I matter? To whom did I stop mattering?”

The Spotify algorithm, Amazon’s recommendations, they’ll never, ever show you Rod McKuen. Those are designed to direct you towards things that other people like right now. But thrift stores, used bookshops, and Goodwills are, accidentally, perfectly designed to show you things that people liked decades ago, then stopped liking.


I love surprising science results. The WaPo's Well Being column offers this:

“Healthy fat is not about the amount of fat” someone carries, said Jeffrey Horowitz, a professor at the University of Michigan, who studies exercise and metabolism. It is about how well that fat functions, he said. “A person who has healthier fat is much better off than someone with the same body fat percentage whose fat is unhealthy.”

Apparently, what you want are small fat cells that can expand or contract as the body's supply-and-demand of calories requires. What you don't want are big inefficient fat cells leaking fatty acids that can build up inside vital organs.

This is why physical activity can make you healthier, even if you don't lose weight or even lose fat. Exercise can "remake" your fat.

and let's close with something batty

It turns out that bats aren't just screeching for no reason, or even necessarily echolocating. A lot of the time they're arguing with each other.

Yossi Yovel and his colleagues recorded a group of 22 Egyptian fruit bats, Rousettus aegyptiacus, for 75 days. Using a modified machine learning algorithm originally designed for recognizing human voices, they fed 15,000 calls into the software. They then analyzed the corresponding video to see if they could match the calls to certain activities.

They found that the bat noises are not just random, as previously thought, reports Skibba. They were able to classify 60 percent of the calls into four categories. One of the call types indicates the bats are arguing about food. Another indicates a dispute about their positions within the sleeping cluster. A third call is reserved for males making unwanted mating advances and the fourth happens when a bat argues with another bat sitting too close. In fact, the bats make slightly different versions of the calls when speaking to different individuals within the group, similar to a human using a different tone of voice when talking to different people.

Monday, October 10, 2022

Burning Bridges

Everything illegal must be destroyed. Everything stolen must be returned.

-Mykhailo Podolyak, advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
after the attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge

This week's featured post is "Does anything matter?"

This week everybody was talking about Herschel Walker

That's covered in the featured post.

and Ukraine

The Kerch Strait bridge linking Crimea (which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014) to the Russian mainland has high symbolic value. It is Europe's longest bridge, and Putin himself drove the first vehicle across in 2018. Saturday Ukraine (apparently, they haven't officially claimed responsibility) blew up a chunk of it.

Limited auto and train traffic has resumed, but it's not clear how much weight of either type the damaged bridge can carry. The bridge is a major supply line for Russian troops in southern Ukraine.

Russia called the attack "vandalism" and "terrorism", in spite of the bridge's obvious military significance. It struck back on Sunday with air and missile attacks on Kyiv and several other Ukrainian cities. The Economist reports:

Many missiles fell nowhere near any plausible military target, suggesting that the projectiles were either inaccurate or the barrage was intended to be indiscriminate. Russia is thought to have used up a large proportion of its precision-guided missiles—as much as 70% of those in stock, according to a Western military source—and even those weapons have frequently missed their intended targets throughout the war. A large, smouldering crater stood metres away from a children’s playground in Shevchenko Park, one of the city’s busiest parks and usually packed with families.

and the fall elections

Both the House and Senate majorities are up for grabs, with each party currently favored to control one House. Nate Silver estimates a 68% chance Democrats retain control of the Senate, and a 70% chance Republicans retake the House.

Some of the Senate races once thought to be toss-ups now have clear favorites. Democrats Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire (84% chance), Mark Kelly in Arizona (82%), and John Fetterman in Pennsylvania (73%) are favored, as are Republicans Ted Budd in North Carolina (68%) and Ron Johnson (67%) in Wisconsin. If all those races come out as he projects, each party has 49 seats.

Silver still considers two races toss-ups Warnock/Walker in Georgia (Warnock 59%) and Masto/Laxalt in Nevada (Masto 51%).

For reasons I don't understand, Real Clear Politics thinks Fetterman and Kelly will lose (even though they each lead in the RCP polling average), and projects a 52-48 Republican Senate.

and OPEC

The cartel of oil-exporting countries agreed to cut production, essentially siding with Russia against the West. Western sanctions against Russia create an opportunity for other OPEC nations to take their market share. Instead, they opt for higher prices rather than sales volume, and make it harder for Europe to do without Russian energy as winter approaches. The move is likely to start US gas prices rising again, which will work against Democrats in the fall elections.

The WaPo editorial board's assessment:

It looks for all the world like an attempt by [Saudi leader] MBS to influence internal U.S. politics, to the advantage of the party of former president Donald Trump, who dealt warmly with him.

When he was in office, Trump did his best to protect Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman from suffering any consequences for his murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

and Biden's marijuana pardons

Thursday President Biden signed a pardon for "all current United States citizens and lawful permanent residents who committed the offense of simple possession of marijuana in violation of the Controlled Substances Act". People currently in prison will get out, and those who have served their time will have their records cleared, making it much easier for them to get jobs, loans, etc.

He also is taking other actions to get marijuana out of the justice system: He's urging governors to follow his lead.

Just as no one should be in federal prison solely due to the possession of marijuana, no one should be in a local jail or a state prison for that reason either.

Also

the President is asking the Secretary of HHS and the Attorney General to review expeditiously how marijuana is scheduled under federal law. Federal law currently classifies marijuana in Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act as the same schedule as for heroin and LSD, and it’s even higher than the classification for fentanyl and methamphetamine — the drugs that are driving our overdose epidemic. ... [But] even as federal and state marijuana law changes, important limitations on trafficking, marketing, and underage sales should stay in place.

Vox goes into more detail, repeating a NYT analysis that about 6500 people will benefit from the pardons.

and Trump

The House committee investigating the January 6 coup attempt will hold its next (and possibly last) hearing on Thursday.


The NYT lays out the backstory of Trump's conflict with the National Archives over the presidential documents he kept after leaving office. It suggests the first plausible motive I've seen.

It was around that same time [October-November, 2021] that Mr. Trump floated the idea of offering the deal to return the boxes in exchange for documents he believed would expose the Russia investigation as a “hoax” cooked up by the F.B.I. Mr. Trump did not appear to know specifically what he thought the archives had — only that there were items he wanted.

Mr. Trump’s aides — recognizing that such a swap would be a non-starter since the government had a clear right to the material Mr. Trump had taken from the White House and the Russia-related documents held by the archives remained marked as classified — never acted on the idea.

The WaPo also has a timeline of the Trump/Archives conflict.

The "deal" idea matches my impression of Trump perfectly: He views obeying the law as a concession, and wants the government to concede something in return.


Republican judges in Texas state courts are refusing to recognize the validity of subpoenas from the George special grand jury investigating Trump.


The second, and apparently last, case brought to trial by the John Durham investigation starts tomorrow. The first trial (of Michael Sussman) ended in a quick acquittal. Like the Sussman charges, the indictment against Igor Danchenko is far narrower than the massive Deep State conspiracy Durham supposedly was going to uncover.

and you also might be interested in ...

So Elon Musk is back to buying Twitter. Maybe.


Kentucky is now the third state where Jewish women are suing to block an abortion ban.

In a lawsuit filed Thursday in Jefferson County Circuit Court, the three plaintiffs and their attorneys argue those laws are vague, unintelligible and give preference to Christian beliefs in a way that diminishes the rights and religious freedoms of Jews. “In Judaism, reproductive health of a mother is between the mother, her rabbi and her doctor — not the attorney general,” Louisville attorney Aaron Kemper said.

The women are described as facing "reproductive challenges", and are afraid to try to overcome those challenges due to the abortion ban.

“At this point, I’m scared to try and have another child,” she told the Herald-Leader in an interview Tuesday. “If I miscarry, I could bleed out before the doctors and the lawyers could decide whether or not they could treat me or if I needed to be prosecuted, and that’s not a risk I’m willing to take for myself or my child or my husband.”


Two new studies compared death certificates to voting registrations, and concluded that

average excess death rates in Florida and Ohio were 76% higher among Republicans than Democrats from March 2020 to December 2021

The gap started to open up about the time vaccines became available, but the researchers don't think vaccine reluctance (which has been pushed by Fox News) is the whole reason. Refusal to take the virus seriously in other ways, like wearing masks and staying out of crowds, also plays a role.


Another mystery of political statistics: Red states have a higher percentage of chain restaurants.


According to leaks from the FBI, agents investigating Hunter Biden think he should be charged. But the fact that he hasn't been charged yet doesn't mean the fix is in. Donald Trump hasn't been charged yet either.

Democrats are not a personality cult, so the ones I know are much less concerned with Hunter's future than Republicans are with the Trump family. If there's a good case that he broke laws, charge him. Let a jury decide. No Democrat is going to riot in the streets if a Hunter Biden indictment comes out.


Republican candidate for governor Doug Mastriano on his admiration for Ron DeSantis: "My goal is to make Pennsylvania the Florida of the North."


If you have a perfect life and are completely stuck for something to get upset about, think about purple M&Ms. According to a host on One America News, the purple M&M (which appears to be female) might be transgender.

and let's close with something fashionable

In a recent Paris fashion show, model Bella Hadid walked onto the stage in her underwear. Technicians then sprayed a Coperni-designed dress onto her, using Fabrican, a liquid that quickly transforms into wearable material. In ten minutes, she had a dress shaped to her body.

"You can wear this dress, keep it as a dress and put it on a hanger. But if you don't want it anymore, you can put back the dress into the liquid and you can immediately spray it again," Coperni's creative director and co-founder, Sébastien Meyer, told CNN at the brand's Paris atelier ahead of the show.

Monday, October 3, 2022

Question and Answer

You know who questioned slavery? The enslaved people.

- Van Jones

There's no featured post this week.

This week everybody was talking about Ian

https://theweek.com/political-satire/1017048/boarding-up

I won't try to cover the devastation or the human suffering, because the mainstream media has been all over that. (I can't tell you how many NBC reporters I've seen standing in front of a boat sitting on top of a crushed Chevy Suburban in Fort Myers. The network appears to have declared that particular site Ground Zero.)

I do think it's worth noticing how normal Biden's response has been. No Sharpie controversies. No playing politics with disaster funding. No presidential whining that some governor hasn't been nice enough to him. No tossing paper towels into a crowd, as if relief supplies come from his personal largesse.

One big reason Biden was elected was to make government normal again. This is an example of him doing precisely that. It doesn't matter that Governor DeSantis is one of Biden's potential rivals in 2024. Florida needs help and it's the president's job to see that they get it.


Disasters like Ian emphasize a point that David Graeber made in Debt: the first 5,000 years: Society rests on a core of communism that we seldom see until an emergency happens. When everything else breaks down, we help people because they need it and expect people to help because they can.

In a pure market economy, you'd be perfectly justified to frame a disaster as an opportunity to make enormous profits by, say, only rescuing people who can pay you a lot. But we all understand how unseemly that would be.

(Crassus, the rich man who joined Caesar and Pompey in Rome's First Triumvirate, made a lot of his money by training a crew of slaves to fight fires -- which happened all the time in a crowded city built out of wood. When he saw a fire, he'd show up with his crew and offer to buy adjacent properties for a low, low price. After the sale, he'd have the fire put out. What a guy!)


As I predicted last week, the hurricane in Florida made us all forget Hurricane Fiona's damage to Puerto Rico, which never did get the 24/7 coverage of Ian. But PR isn't back to normal yet.

On Friday – as Floridians assessed the destruction left by Hurricane Ian and the storm made landfall in South Carolina as a Category 1 – more than 230,000 customers in Puerto Rico were still without electricity, according to the PowerOutage.US website. More than 800,000 customers were without power last weekend.

Nearly 80,000 customers – about 6% – of the Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority were without water on Friday, according to the government’s emergency portal system website.

Fox News even forgot Puerto Rico is part of the United States.

Martha MacCallum was telling Fox News viewers about the devastating impacts of hurricanes in places such as Cuba and Puerto Rico on Wednesday when she quipped: “Thank God we have better infrastructure in our country”.

We should never forget the reason Puerto Rico isn't a state: race and language prejudice. If the US owned an island of three million English-speaking White people, it would have joined the union decades ago.


After Hurricane Katrina flooded New Orleans, right-wing Christians proclaimed it as a sign of God's judgment. Franklin Graham in particular showed little sympathy for the city's suffering:

This is one wicked city, OK? It's known for Mardi Gras, for Satan worship. It's known for sex perversion. It's known for every type of drugs and alcohol and the orgies and all of these things that go on down there in New Orleans. ... There's been a black spiritual cloud over New Orleans for years. They believe God is going to use that storm to bring revival.

Those voices are silent now. Florida has been competing with Texas to lead the nation in persecuting trans youth, shoving LGBTQ people back into the closet, and keeping students ignorant about racism. So what about that, fundamentalist preachers? Does God speak through storms or not? What might God be trying to tell Ron DeSantis?

Or maybe all the signs-of-God's-judgment talk has always just been a way for flim-flam artists like Graham to put their own words into God's mouth.

and Putin's annexations

https://theweek.com/political-satire/1016980/vlads-referendum

He went through with it.

On Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin formally declared four regions of Ukraine as part of Russia following sham referendums this week in eastern and southern Ukraine. Putin made the illegal decree as he lobbed even more threats against the United States and its allies, another potential escalation in the war in Ukraine and in Russia’s standoff with the West.

Putin moved to annex four regions of eastern and southern Ukraine — Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia — after officials in Russian-controlled territory staged an illegal vote on joining Russia. The Kremlin does not fully control any of these areas, and pollsters reportedly went door to door with armed soldiers in Russian-controlled zones, but Putin justified the decree by saying that it was done on behalf of the “will of millions of people.”

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/01/europe/ukraine-russia-lyman-donetsk-intl

"Illegal" can be a loaded word, so I tracked down the basis for the claim that the annexation referendums are illegal. The 1958 commentary on the fourth Geneva Convention (1949) says:

As was emphasized in the commentary on Article 4, the occupation of territory in wartime is essentially a temporary, de facto situation, which deprives the occupied Power of neither its statehood nor its sovereignty; it merely interferes with its power to exercise its rights. That is what distinguishes occupation from annexation, whereby the Occupying Power acquires all or part of the occupied territory and incorporates it in its own territory.

Consequently occupation as a result of war, while representing actual possession to all appearances, cannot imply any right whatsoever to dispose of territory. As long as hostilities continue the Occupying Power cannot therefore annex the occupied territory, even if it occupies the whole of the territory concerned. A decision on that point can only be reached in the peace treaty.


The practical point of the annexation is to frame Ukraine's current offensive (which is still advancing) as an attack on Russia itself rather than a recapture of its own territory. Putin has said he will use "all available means" to defend "Russia", which raises the specter of nuclear war.

Yesterday's NYT discusses the possibility that Russia will use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

“The chance that Putin would strike out of the blue seems very low,” said Graham T. Allison, the author of a seminal 1971 book about the Cuban Missile Crisis, “Essence of Decision.” “But as Kennedy said back then, the plausible scenario is if a leader is forced to choose between a catastrophic humiliation and a roll of the dice that might yield success.”

Mr. Allison suspects Mr. Putin will not face that choice unless Ukraine succeeds in pushing Russian forces out of the areas Mr. Putin annexed on Friday.

For that reason, the next few weeks could prove a particularly dangerous time, a range of American and European officials agree. But Mr. Putin is not likely to use a nuclear weapon immediately.

That's not very comforting. During the Cold War, I didn't worry much about a Soviet first strike because it didn't make sense from a Marxist worldview. Soviet dogma said that communism was the inevitable outcome of history. So why would you risk everything on a roll of the dice now if your eventual victory was certain? But that thinking doesn't apply now. If Putin sees his regime going down, he might think rolling the dice is his best bet.

OTOH, a gangster regime rests on the self-interest calculations made by all the henchmen. If a lot of those calculations are based on the belief that Putin would never do something that could get them all killed, the possibility of nuclear war could start people up and down the regime reevaluating their cooperation.

I'd like to see Biden address Putin's henchmen directly, in a statement something like this:

A nuclear attack is something that the world will never forget and never forgive. Anyone who in any way participates in such a decision or such an attack will never know a moment's peace. You must realize that Putin's regime will eventually fall and his protection will fail. When that happens, there will be no safe place for you. You will be hunted to the ends of the Earth.

As for how the US should respond if Putin does use a tactical nuke in Ukraine, I've been reluctant to say what I'm thinking, because I'd be just another ignorant guy spouting off. So I found a knowledgeable guy who is saying the same thing: former general and CIA head David Petraeus. NATO should respond directly, but with conventional weapons. The goal would be to make sure Russia lost at least as much as it had gained by using the nuke.

The US and its allies would destroy Russia’s troops and equipment in Ukraine – as well as sink its Black Sea fleet – if Russian president Vladimir Putin uses nuclear weapons in the country, former CIA director and retired four-star army general David Petraeus warned on Sunday.

I understand fully the temptation to back down: To the rest of the world, losing Ukraine is a small price to pay to avoid the kind of escalation that could lead to an all-out nuclear war. But giving in to threats means giving something up without getting anything back. Putin retains his nuclear arsenal and can make the same threat over the next conflict. Where does that road end?


CPAC has since deleted the tweet, but its reflex response to the annexations was to line up with Putin's propaganda. The tweet referred to the four territories as "Ukrainian-occupied", as if they had always been Russian and Ukraine is the aggressor.


A possibly related event is the rupture in the Nord Stream pipelines, which take Russian natural gas to Germany. This appears to be sabotage, but everybody is pointing fingers at everybody else. In the short term it helps Russia, because this winter Europe will realize how much it depends on Russian energy. In the long run it hurts Russia, which will need the pipelines to sell natural gas after the Ukraine-related sanctions get resolved somehow.

and other right-wing foreign governments

Speaking of ultra-conservative foreign leaders, Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro was up for re-election yesterday. He trails another former president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (known more simply as "Lula") 48.4%-43.2%, which means a run-off will happen October 30. There has already been violence in this campaign, and it is expected to get worse.

In addition to how the run-off will come out, everyone wonders what Bolsonaro will do if he loses. Like Trump in 2020, Bolsonaro started questioning the integrity of the election before it happened. His supporters are more likely than his opponents to be armed, and the nation's police support him. He probably has enough military support to keep Brazil's army on the sidelines.


The far-right Fratelli d'Italia (Brothers of Italy) Party, which traces its ancestry back to the World War II Fascists, leads the new Italian government, elevating Giorgia Meloni to prime minister. Wikipedia explains the history.

FdI emerged from a right-wing split within Silvio Berlusconi's party, The People of Freedom (PdL), in December 2012. The bulk of the party leadership including Meloni, as well as the symbol of the movement (the tricolour flame), comes from the National Alliance (AN, 1995–2009) party, which had merged into PdL in 2009. AN was the heir to the Italian Social Movement (MSI, 1945–1995), a neo-fascist party founded by former members of the banned National Fascist Party (1921–1943) and the Republican Fascist Party (1943–1945).

American conservatives are ecstatic, and Meloni looks likely to join Hungarian authoritarian Viktor Orbán in the pantheon of foreign leaders who get cheered at CPAC (where she has already spoken twice). But lots of people on my social media feeds posted this quip:

I can't believe they made Mussolini a woman in the reboot. This woke nonsense has ruined yet another franchise.

The most immediate problem raised by Italian neo-fascism is whether Italy will become pro-Putin voice inside NATO. So far, Meloni is not signalling that.

Meloni, 45, has sought to moderate her views recently, and this week she tweeted support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Yet as Europe teeters on the brink of a recession stemming at least partly from energy sanctions imposed on Russia, there are fears within the Biden administration and elsewhere that Meloni could slash what’s been a significant Italian contribution to Ukraine’s defense.

Such a move could have a domino effect and cause key Western allies to push for a negotiated end to Russia’s war on Ukraine. Trump backed that position Wednesday, one Ukraine’s leaders vehemently oppose because it would likely require giving up large swaths of their territory to Putin.

and the Supreme Court

The start of the new Court term led a lot of pundits to raise a bunch of the issues I discussed last week. The NYT Editorial Board wrote:

The actual cause of [the Supreme Court's] historic unpopularity is no secret. Over the past several years, the court has been transformed into a judicial arm of the Republican Party. This project was taking shape more quietly for decades, but it shifted into high gear in 2016, when Justice Antonin Scalia died and Senate Republicans refused to let Barack Obama choose his successor, obliterating the practice of deferring to presidents to fill vacancies on the court. Within four years, the court had a 6-to-3 right-wing supermajority, supercharging the Republican appointees’ efforts to discard the traditions and processes that have allowed the court to appear fair and nonpartisan.

The WaPo's Ruth Marcus wrote an extended introduction to the new Court term, which includes a number of race-related cases: affirmative action and voting rights in particular. Another case revisits whether anti-discrimination laws apply to Christian businesses that turn away gay customers for religious reasons. There's an opportunity for the Court to limit the power the Clean Water Act gives the EPA, and to increase state legislatures' power to sway elections.

and the pandemic

Case numbers are dropping almost everywhere except where I am in New England. Nationally, deaths stubbornly remain around 400 per day.

When President Biden declared the pandemic over a couple weeks ago, I had to decide when I'll start thinking of it as over: When the death numbers get down to about 100 per day. That would be flu-like.

According to data collected by the CDC from 2010 to 2020, the agency estimates that the flu has caused 12,000 to 52,000 deaths annually.

100 per day would be 36,500 annually, right in the middle of a normal flu range. Until then, I'm going to keep wearing masks and avoiding indoor crowds.

and you also might be interested in ...

https://claytoonz.com/2022/10/01/sailing-to-fluteghazi/

The week's dumbest controversy was about Lizzo playing James Madison's flute. If you've seen references to it and want to know what it was about, click the link. But if you don't care, don't start caring on my account.

I aspire to someday have a life so carefree that how the Library of Congress handles James Madison's flute rises to the top of my list.


The dumbest statement about a controversy had to be this one by Ron DeSantis, who was defending his initiative to put a right-wing slant on how Florida public schools teach American history.

It was the American Revolution that caused people to question slavery. No one had questioned it before we decided as Americans that we are endowed by our Creator with unalienable rights and that we are all created equal.

CNN's Van Jones pointed out the obvious.

You know who questioned [slavery]? The enslaved people.

Like the history I was taught growing up, DeSantis' history is based on the principle that only European views count. There's no other way to justify the claim that "no one" questioned slavery before 1776, that Columbus "discovered" America, that Gutenberg (and not Bi Sheng of the Song Dynasty) invented movable type, or a bunch of other pseudo-facts I remember from my K-12 years.

The origins of movable type.

But even if you only count English-speaking White people, DeSantis' history is just wrong.

In the 1569 case it had been ruled that English law could not recognise slavery. This view, although overturned by the ruling in Butts V. Penny, was subsequently upheld in 1701 when the Chief Justice, Sir John Holt, ruled that a slave became free as soon as he arrived in England. In this view, different from, but no less unequivocal than that of the Solicitor-General in 1677, slavery was illegal.


Judge Cannon continues to put Trump above the law. Once again, the special master that Trump chose wanted to pin down exactly what he's claiming -- this time about whether the FBI planted documents or not. But no. Those claims are allowed to float, and presumably to influence the case, without even being stated for the record, much less supported by evidence.


New Tory Prime Minister Liz Truss' first major act was to propose a gigantic tax cut for the rich.

Last week, Truss’ government announced that they would cut taxes by £45 billion ($48 billion) in a bid to get the UK economy moving again, with a package that includes scrapping the highest rate of income tax for top earners from 45% to 40% and a big increase in government borrowing to slash energy prices for millions of households and businesses this winter.

Truss has acknowledged mistakes in how the proposal was rolled out, but seems to be standing by it, even as the pound crashes. But not everybody is behind her.

Conservative members of parliament fear the combination of tax cuts along with huge public spending to help people cope with energy bills, rising inflation, rising interest rates and a falling pound are going to make winning the next general election impossible.

Who better to comment than UK fake-news personality Jonathan Pie?


Having passed the House and gotten support from Mitch McConnell, a bill to reform the Electoral Count Act of 1887 looks likely to become law. The bill eliminates various loopholes and vagueries that Trump used to try to hang onto power after losing the 2020 election.

McConnell's support is one more step in the continued souring of his relationship with Trump. Obviously, Trump doesn't like the implication that his failed coup attempt was the kind of thing America should avoid in the future. But he really lashed out after McConnell supported a continuing resolution to keep the government open until after the election. On his Trump-centered Twitter-clone, the former president said McConnell "has a death wish", which I (and a lot of other people) interpret as a suggestion that McConnell be assassinated. The same post insulted McConnell's Chinese-American wife, Elaine Chao, who left Trump's cabinet after January 6. Trump called her McConnell's "China loving wife Coco Chow".

Explain to me again how "divisive" Joe Biden is.


Speaking at a Trump rally in Michigan Saturday, Marjorie Taylor Greene said

I'm not going to mince words with you all. Democrats want Republicans dead. They've already started the killings.

Again, the point here seems to be to incite and justify right-wing violence.


This week I learned two words: Having an implant removed is called "explanting". And a person known by a one-word name (like Madonna or Lula) is "mononymous".

and let's close with some practical information

Ryan North's career in comic books (Dinosaur Comics, The Unbeatable Squirrel Girl, ...) has led him to spend an enormous amount of time contemplating plausible supervillain schemes. Now you can benefit from his lifetime of research by reading his book How to Take Over the World.

The infrastructure chapter alone could save you billions. Where should you build your secret lair? (Not at the bottom of the ocean or on the Moon. You'd just be creating problems for yourself.) How much space do you need to achieve food and energy independence from the outside world? (The Biosphere 2 research is invaluable here.)

And then there are the more specific villainous plans. How can you create your own dinosaurs? (Actual dinosaur DNA is unrecoverable now, so the Jurassic Park technique can't possibly work. But you might be able to create pseudo-dinosaurs by manipulating the DNA expression of the dinosaurs' bird descendants. This technique also avoids a lot of catastrophic outcomes, because your dinosaurs' offspring would be birds again.) What's the most plausible path to immortality? How can you control the weather? (The plan here looks a lot like the one Neil Stephenson explores in Termination Shock, which was probably being written simultaneously.)

Supervillainy may seem like a radical career choice, but there's no time to lose, because Disney owns Marvel Comics and Warner-Discovery owns DC. Think about what that means:

Two of the most powerful multinational corporations on the planet have spent decades, in plain sight, paying some of the most creative people alive today to design increasingly credible world-domination schemes.

So if you don't take over the world, one of those two undoubtedly will. Your reign is bound to be better than theirs.