It is important, likewise, that the habits of thinking in a free country should inspire caution in those entrusted with its administration, to confine themselves within their respective constitutional spheres, avoiding in the exercise of the powers of one department to encroach upon another. The spirit of encroachment tends to consolidate the powers of all the departments in one and thus to create, whatever the form of government, a real despotism.
- George Washington, The Farewell Address (1796)
This week's featured posts are "The Shutdown Gets Serious" and "Could a Third Term Happen?".
Ongoing stories
- Trump's assault on American democracy. The most important article to read this week came from the NYT's Editorial Board: "Are We Losing Our Democracy?". It lists 12 traits of an autocratic regime, and details how Trump has achieved some and is making inroads on the others. Articles like this one make it clear that words like "autocrat", "fascist", etc. or not just insults or evidence of Trump derangement. They are clear assessments of where we are.
- Climate change. I'm late to notice, but the rhetoric of climate denial has changed.
- Gaza. Nominally there is still a ceasefire, but the killing continues: "On Tuesday, Israeli airstrikes killed more than 100 Palestinians, at least 66 of them women and children, in the deadliest day since Donald Trump declared the war was over. Israel said the bombings were in response to an attack in Rafah city that killed a soldier carrying out demolitions there."
- Ukraine. Russia continues a slow and costly advance in the Donetsk region, while Ukrainian drones get increasingly effective inside Russia.
This week's developments
This week everybody was talking about the shutdown
A lapse in SNAP benefits and higher premiums on ObamaCare policies both kicked in on Saturday. That's the topic of one of the featured posts.
This week Trump floated his solution to the shutdown, which is the one I predicted two weeks ago: The Senate should do away with the filibuster so that he wouldn't have to negotiate with Democrats. So far, Senate Republicans don't seem interested.
and tariffs
The Senate voted three times this week to revoke the national emergencies Trump declared to raise tariffs on Canada, Brazil, and the broad range of countries in his "liberation day" tariffs. The votes will have no practical effect because the House will not concur and Trump would veto the resolution if they did, but they do mark the first stirrings of resistance in the Senate, at least among Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, Rand Paul, and Mitch McConnell.
Friday the Supreme Court will hear arguments about whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 really works the way Trump says it does, and gives him the power to do whatever he wants with tariffs. Lower courts have said no, but that's because they were doing law; the Supreme Court may be doing something else.
The Brazil and Canada tariffs should be the biggest piece of evidence against Trump having the power he claims. Both seem to have less to do with national security and more with Trump's personal rages.
He imposed 50% tariffs on Brazil because that country prosecuted, convicted, and imprisoned its former president, Jair Bolsonaro, for doing essentially the same thing Trump did on January 6. He recently raised tariffs on Canada because the province of Ontario produced an ad he didn't like.
and tomorrow's elections
Odd-numbered years are usually slow for elections, but there are a few: Tomorrow New York City will elect a new mayor, and Virginia and New Jersey will elect new governors.
Democrats are favored in the Virginia and New Jersey races.
In NYC, Zohran Mamdani won the Democratic primary, but the party establishment has not united around him. Former Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo is running as an independent. Mamdani is ahead in the polls.
Mamdani is a charismatic candidate who appeals to young voters. He is also Muslim, has been critical of Israel, and is part of the Democratic Socialist wing of the party. Big money is being spent to take him down, but it doesn't seem to be working.
and the White House
Three stories of Trump's abuses of power got attention these last two weeks:
- tearing down the East Wing of the White House to build a massive gilded ballroom
- filing claims against his own Justice Department asking for $230 million
- hinting at a run for a third term
The third term, which he later backed away from, at least for now, is covered in one of the featured posts. As for the $230 million,
The president insisted on Tuesday that the government owes him “a lot of money” for previous justice department investigations into his conduct, while at the same time asserting his personal authority over any potential payout.“
It’s interesting, ’cause I’m the one that makes the decision, right?” Trump said at the White House, responding to questions about administrative claims he filed seeking roughly $230m related to the FBI’s search of Mar-a-Lago and the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. The New York Times had reported the claims on Tuesday.
Trump’s comment lays out a circular situation: Trump as president would in effect decide whether Trump as claimant receives taxpayer money for investigations into Trump as defendant.
The circularity is the only reason these claims might be paid. Both the Mar-a-Lago search and the Russia investigation were totally justified, and his claims otherwise would be laughed out of court. Trump says he would give the money to charity, but he's said things like that before.
You might wonder how Trump can spend $300 million on a ballroom without consulting Congress, but he says he's raising the money privately, from a list of individuals and corporations all of whom will likely want government favors at some point. In the long run, taxpayers would probably be better off paying for the ballroom themselves.
He also hasn't consulted the National Capital Planning Commission. Hillary Clinton made the key point: "It's not his house."
and you also might be interested in ...
Here's a typical story about how the Trump administration responds to corruption: Last Sunday, FBI Director Kash Patel began taking heat on social media for going to State College, PA on an FBI jet so that he could watch his girlfriend sing the national anthem at a wrestling match. The plane then went on to Nashville, where she lives.
Clearly somebody should be fired for this, and somebody was: the guy who oversees the FBI's jet fleet. Patel appears to blame him for the story getting out, despite the fact that his flights were trackable by the general public.
The Center for Countering Digital Hate (CCDH) also considers disinformation to be part of its mission, which is how they got interested in climate change. They put out a report about how climate denialists have changed their tactics in 2024. (But I just noticed it this week). They distinguish "old denial" (which says climate change either isn't happening or isn't caused by humans burning fossil fuels) from "new denial" (which creates doubt about what can or should be done).
They had an AI algorithm produce and examine transcripts from more than 12K YouTube videos posted by climate denialists between 2018 and 2023. This graphic explains what they found.
It's worth noting that President Trump mixes old and new denial. In September he said this to the UN General Assembly:
This "climate change," it’s the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world, in my opinion. All of these predictions made by the United Nations and many others, often for bad reasons, were wrong. They were made by stupid people that have cost their countries fortunes and given those same countries no chance for success. If you don’t get away from this green scam, your country is going to fail.
The PBS article I quoted this from debunks many of Trump's claims.
One big step towards the MAGA takeover of American media is faux-independent Bari Weiss becoming editor-in-chief of CBS News. How this happened is an instructive lesson in media consolidation: CBS was taken over by Viacom in 2000, spun off in 2005, then reacquired in 2019. Viacom took the name of its subsidiary Paramount, reflecting its entertainment-media focus.
Paramount then merged with Skydance. The merger was announced in 2024, but needed Justice Department approval to avoid antitrust issues. That approval came in August, after Paramount paid Trump $16 million to settle a his meritless lawsuit against CBS' 60 Minutes, and then cancelled Stephen Colbert's show after the comedian called the settlement what it was: "a big fat bribe".
Paramount-Skydance is now controlled by the Ellison family, who are Trump supporters. Larry Ellison, who co-founded Oracle, is #2 on Forbes list of the richest people in the US. He was briefly the richest man in the world in September with a net worth over $300 billion. His son David Ellison is the CEO of Paramount Skydance. David is the one who picked Weiss to head CBS News.
The best intro to Bari Weiss comes from John Oliver, who focused on her three weeks ago.
Now Bari Weiss is choosing the next anchor of CBS Evening News, which was the most important job in news back when Walter Cronkite had it. Most of the names being kicked around are from Fox News.
You might wonder why Texas AG Ken Paxton would do this:
Attorney General Ken Paxton sued Johnson & Johnson and Kenvue for deceptively marketing Tylenol to pregnant mothers despite knowing that early exposure to acetaminophen, Tylenol’s only active ingredient, leads to a significantly increased risk of autism and other disorders.
I mean, it's not like anyone but RFK Jr. actually believes Tylenol significantly increases autism risk. So how can Paxton hope to win a suit claiming that Tylenol's makers "knew" something none of the experts in the field know today?
Amanda Marcotte explains: Paxton has lost his lead over incumbent Senator John Cornyn for the GOP senate nomination in Texas. He desperately needs Trump's endorsement, so he is demonstrating to the Mad King that he is willing to act on whatever nonsense the regime spits out.
and let's close with a song parody
The Marsh Family adapts a Paul Simon tune to the RFK Jr. era: "Measles and Polio Down in the Schoolyard."
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