Monday, July 8, 2024

Settled Understandings

If my colleagues on this side of the chamber actually think that President Trump committed a criminal offense, and let’s understand, a high crime is a felony, and a misdemeanor is a misdemeanor. The words haven’t changed that much over time. After he’s out of office, you go and arrest him.

- Bruce Castor, lawyer defending Donald Trump against impeachment
Opening Statement, February 9, 2021

In sum, the majority today endorses an expansive vision of Presidential immunity that was never recognized by the Founders, any sitting President, the Executive Branch, or even President Trump’s lawyers, until now. Settled understandings of the Constitution are of little use to the majority in this case, and so it ignores them.

- Justice Sonya Sotomayor,
dissent in Trump v United States

This week's featured posts are "The Immunity Decision: End of the Republic or No Big Deal?" and "The Biden Situation". In this morning's teaser, I promised a third article about the media meltdown over Biden, but much of that material made it into the other Biden article and the rest is below.

I also want to compliment everybody involved in last week's comments, particularly the discussion of Biden's candidacy in response to "They Both Lost. What Now?" Commenters disagreed a lot, both with me and with each other, but by and large the discussion stayed civil. We're all trying to save the Republic from autocracy; we just disagree on the best way to do it.

This week everybody should have been talking about the immunity decision

I cover this in the first featured post. Summary: It's not the end of the Republic yet, but could be a significant step in that direction. The fact that the law will no longer constrain presidents just underlines the importance of electing presidents we can trust not to abuse their power.

but we actually talked constantly about Biden's health and candidacy

The substance of what I think about Biden and his candidacy is in the second featured post: He is doing a good job and I still believe he can keep doing it. But settling down the media storm that has blown up requires political skills I don't think he has. So I am open to choosing a new candidate, but skeptical that this move will solve the problem.

Late in that post, I discuss just how out of control the mainstream media has gotten. I was originally planning to write a whole article on that, but managed to cover most of what I wanted to say in the article mentioned above. Here's the stuff that didn't make it into that article:

One day this week, I fired up my iPad's NYT app and noticed that the first six articles on the screen all had something to do with getting Biden out of the race. (Aaron Rupar noticed the same phenomenon.) All week, I kept checking CNN to see how they were covering the immunity decision, but I could never time it right: They were constantly talking about Biden's fitness for office and whether his support was eroding. In one segment I watched, Host Jim Sciutto raised those issues with CNN commentator Van Jones, pro-Biden Republican Adam Kinzinger, and Democrats Howard Dean and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. Whenever any of the four expressed support for Biden, Sciutto argued with them. No pro-Biden point could go unchallenged.

There's an agenda here, and it's not subtle.

This kind of sustained assault doesn't happen to Republicans. Republican scandals and pseudo-scandals last for a day or two and then go away. Donald Trump is still a convicted felon who tried to stay in power through force and fraud after he lost the election. Clarence Thomas is still blatantly corrupt. How often do those facts come up? Republican officials can appear on CNN without being asked about them.

But if you raise those comparisons, big-media journalists will protest, "We can't keep asking people the same questions over and over again." The Biden example, however, proves that they can. They're doing it right now. They just can't do it to Republicans.

Here's Jemele Hill's take:

The Republican Party in general is graded on a curve, but Trump especially. They’ve normalized his buffoonish bigotry. If you watched American news coverage, you would have no idea that Trump often threatens violence, promises to weaponize the DOJ against his “enemies,” is a felon, has been found liable for rape, tried to overturn an election, and incited an insurrection, among other things. If Biden is replaced, all of the coverage will be centered on the dysfunction of the Democratic Party.

AngryStaffer brings back some 2016 memories I had forgotten. We all remember how the NYT and other media blew Hillary's emails into some big scandal. But do you remember when Hillary's health was also supposed to be a big problem, one that should push her out of the race? Of course, it's eight years later now and Hillary is doing fine.

In the featured post, I raise the possibility that replacing Biden will just move the attack to the new candidate. One reason to think so is the essay the NYT published on (of all days) July 4: "Why I Don't Vote and Maybe You Shouldn't Either". If you click the link, you'll see a toned down headline "Why I Won't Vote". There's a reason for that. @capitolhunters did a deep dive into the author, one Matthew Walther, whose hairstyle and moustache looks more like Hitler than can be a coincidence.

After a big public outrage about an article denigrating voting on July 4, the Times shortened the title to "Why I Don't Vote". But then it turned out that records show Walther did vote in 2020 and 2022, so it got changed again to "Why I Won't Vote".

But anyway, what's the editor's motive in running this dishonest piece? Isn't it to suppress the youth vote, which any Democrat (Biden or not) will need in November?

and the Fourth of July

When I talk to people these days, I often hear the fantasy of going into a Rip Van Winkle sleep and not waking up until after the election. This week in particular my social media feed included a lot of mournful posts revolving around the theme of this being the last real Fourth of July, the last honest holiday of American freedom and democracy.

I don't necessarily believe that, but it's a possibility, and I understand why people are taking it seriously. But let me pass on some wisdom I picked up many years ago when I thought my wife was going to die. (She didn't.) If you're afraid you're about to lose something, appreciate it now.

So if we're really seeing the last gasp of American democracy, don't waste this time moping or wishing you were asleep. If you're worried that these might be the last days of freedom, don't miss them. Get out there and be free. Whatever "freedom" means to you personally, whatever activities you find meaningful that some authoritarian might try to stop you from doing, go do those things. Do them exuberantly and with joy.

and France and the UK elections

Counter to what this cartoonist (and a lot of other people) expected, the big winner in France's parliamentary election was the Left, not the Right. The right-wing National Rally (RN) party was leading in the first round of the elections, but ended up finishing third in the final round.

If that sounds confusing, here's how the rounds work:

The first round eliminates all candidates who fail to win the support of 12.5% of locally registered voters. Anyone who scores more than 50% of the vote with a turnout of at least a quarter of the local electorate wins automatically. The second round is a series of run-offs fought either by two, three or sometimes four candidates.

RN came out of the first round with 33% of the vote, compared to the left-wing New Popular Front's 28% and 20% for President Macron's centrist bloc. After that result, RN was expected to be the largest party in Parliament, if not winning an actual majority of seats. But instead:

The surprise result for the leftwing New Popular Front – which won 182 seats, followed by president Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Together alliance on 163 and the far right in third with 143 seats – showed the strength of tactical voting against Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN). The far right and its allies had forged a commanding lead in the first round but were ultimately held back by massive tactical voting to prevent them winning enough seats to form a government. ...

More than 200 candidates from the left and centre had pulled out of the second round last week in order to avoid splitting the vote against the RN. Those parties had called on voters to choose any candidate against the RN, in an attempt to prevent the far right winning an absolute majority and forming a government.

No party wound up with a majority, so forming a government could take some time. New Popular Front is already a cumbersome union of leftist parties, so holding them together and adding support from centrists might be tricky.


Meanwhile in the UK, the Tories are out of power for the first time since 2010. Labour won in a landslide and Keir Starmer will be the new prime minister. At least two factors are at work here: the general unpopularity of anybody who was in power during Covid (which hits both Biden and Trump here), plus the Britain-specific factor that Brexit has turned into a nightmare.

and you also might be interested in ...

You can tell something is losing popularity when Trump denies knowing anything about it. This week, he tried to distance himself from Project 2025, the plan produced by a consortium of conservative organizations to guide his second term.

Michael Steele points out the obvious:

Ok, let’s all play with Stupid for minute…so exactly how do you “disagree” with something you “know nothing about” or “have no idea” who is behind, saying or doing the thing you disagree with?

Here's why Project 2025 matters: Trump is not a detail guy. We saw that in his first term. He said he wanted a tax cut, but he knows bupkis about taxes, other than how to avoid them. So Paul Ryan had to write his plan. He said he wanted a "beautiful" health care plan to replace ObamaCare, but he knows nothing about healthcare either, so the Republican Congress ended up just barely failing to repeal ObamaCare without any replacement plan.

He hasn't changed or learned much of anything, so if he's going to have any policies during a second term, somebody else is going to have to create them. That's Project 2025.


Florida's law allowing "volunteer chaplains" from outside organizations to provide counseling services in public schools took effect this week, and the Satanic Temple announced that it was ready to participate in any district that started such a program. So far none have. The Guardian article says this about the church's beliefs:

The Satanic Temple champions Satan not as a literal, omnipresent demon, but as a symbol of rebellion and resistance to authoritarianism.

I may not be all that in touch with today's high school students, but in my day "rebellion and resistance to authoritarianism" was the de facto religion of a large majority.


If you're not from corn country (I am, originally) you might not find the length of this article worth your time, but Chris Jones' Iowa-based blog The Swine Republic has an insightful essay "Mr. Peabody's Corn Train" comparing Iowa's infatuation with corn-based ethanol to West Virginia's infatuation with coal. The West Virginia situation is further along, so it's more obvious what a bad decision the state made tying itself to a doomed energy industry. [Footnote for people younger than me: The title derives from an old song lyric. It's quite evocative if you catch the reference.]


So "dozens" of Nazis marched in Nashville Saturday.

Dozens of self-proclaimed white nationalists marched through downtown Nashville on Saturday. They wore matching uniforms, with ski masks and sunglasses to obscure their faces, and carried Confederate and upside-down American flags. Witnesses say they chanted the Nazi “Seig Heil” salute and called for mass deportations of nonwhite people.

[OK, it's actually "Sieg Heil", but don't ask how I know that.] You might expect "Should I denounce Nazis?" to be one of the easiest questions in politics. But if you're a Tennessee Republican it seems to require considerable thought.

As of Sunday morning, Gov. Bill Lee had not released a statement. U.S. Senators Bill Hagerty and Marsha Blackburn, as well as Nashville’s three congressmen, have also remained silent.

Nashville itself is Democratic, but due to gerrymandering all three of its representatives are Republicans. The only Democrat Tennessee sends to Congress is Steve Cohen from the Memphis area.

and let's close with something timeworn

Kueez collects a bunch of photos showing the long-term effects of small but persistent processes. Cat scratches can completely destroy a banister eventually. If people play an organ for over a century, their fingers wear dips into the keys. And here, a family photo kept inside the cover of this watch eventually imprinted on the metal.

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