Monday, October 20, 2025

In Free Countries

For as in absolute governments the King is law, so in free countries the law ought to be king; and there ought to be no other.

- Thomas Paine, Common Sense (1776)

No Sift next week. The next new posts will appear on November 3.

This week's featured post is "The Resistance Stiffens".

Ongoing stories

  • Trump's assault on American democracy. The American People pushed back a little this week. That's the subject of the featured post.
  • Climate change. Lots of statistics get thrown around about climate change, but the most important one is the quantity of CO2 in the atmosphere. In 2024, atmospheric CO2 jumped by a record 3.5 parts per million, to reach a record 424 ppm.
  • Gaza. The ceasefire didn't last long.
  • Ukraine. Over the last few weeks, Trump did what he does so often: floated an idea to support Ukraine (by supplying it with long-range Tomahawk missiles), got a lot of positive headlines for it, but then backed down after talking to Vladimir Putin. Now he's planning to meet Putin in Budapest, a move that supports not just Putin, but Hungary's authoritarian leader Viktor Orbán, Putin's only ally in the EU. Trump likes to appear independent of Putin, but remains incapable of standing up to him.

This week's developments

This week's theme: resisting the regime

That's the topic of the featured post, which covers the No Kings rallies, the revolt of the Pentagon press corps, universities refusing to sign Trump's compact, Democrats standing firm on the budget, and an appeals court ruling keeping troops out of Chicago.

One minor bit of resistance: Juries are refusing to convict people the regime should never have charged.


Yesterday the NYT published the most clueless article I've seen in some while: "It’s 2025, and Democrats Are Still Running Against Trump". Apparently, we're supposed to ignore the fascist takeover that's happening and talk about more normal political issues.

I also love the idea that we should take advice from "a veteran Republican admaker and political strategist" who says "If I were running a Democratic campaign, I would be attempting to broaden my coalition beyond a visceral hatred of Trump".

Maybe seeing democracy collapsing before their very eyes can change the minds of previously uncommitted voters. Anti-Trump might become a very broad coalition indeed.

and voting rights

John Roberts has been chipping away at the Voting Rights Act for years, enabling a great many voter suppression laws in red states. Now he seems ready to finish the job.

Basically, Roberts wants every government action to be color-blind. That sounds good if you don't think about it too hard. But when generations of racism has created a problem, how do you address that problem without mentioning race?

Wednesday, the Court heard arguments in Louisiana v Callais, and the issue in question is whether states can engage in racial gerrymandering -- the only kind of gerrymandering that current interpretations of the law bans.

Not only is this the kind of thing Roberts has wanted to do his whole career, it might have the side benefit of making it virtually impossible for Democrats to recapture the House in 2026, or maybe ever. An analysis in the NYT says that in some scenarios, Democrats would have to win the national popular vote by 5% or more in order to get a majority of House seats.

and the shutdown

Republicans are claiming that Democrats just didn't want to fold before the No Kings rallies, but that they will now that the rallies are over. I'm not seeing it.

At stake here is the narrative of Trump's invincibility: If he has to offer a concession, even a popular one, then resistance is productive. If Democrats cave without getting anything, then they're useless.

A local TV station suggests five dates that are pressure points for the shutdown: three paycheck dates, the open-enrollment starting date for the ObamaCare exchanges (November 1), and Thanksgiving, when millions of Americans will try to travel and air-traffic controllers would still be working without pay.

I hear a lot of speculation of the form: "They'll have to resolve this by X, because otherwise this painful thing will happen." But which side does the pain move? Either Trump makes a concession or he doesn't, so there's no obvious compromise on that.

The only way out I see is for Republicans to nuke the filibuster in the Senate. Then they can run over Democrats without giving up anything.

and the Navy murdering Venezuelan fishermen

From the beginning, I've been appalled by the policy of blowing up boats in the Caribbean because someone suspects they might be carrying drugs. Appalled, but also puzzled: What's the point here? Even if the suspicions are true, drug smuggling is not a capital offense, and the people on the boats have been denied due process, or any kind of process at all. The boats could have been stopped by the Coast Guard and the drugs confiscated. And boats from Venezuela are not the main avenue for drug smuggling anyway. So who is better off because the boats are destroyed and the people on it dead?

Well, it seems like the officer in charge has some of the same doubts. Admiral Alvin Holsey, the head of the U.S. Southern Command that oversees operations in the Caribbean, quit his job one year into a three-year assignment, and will retire after a 37-year career.

Thursday was the sixth such attack, and the first one to leave survivors, who have been captured.

The strike, which President Donald Trump confirmed Friday, was the sixth known strike on a boat allegedly involved in drug trafficking. But it appeared to mark the first time an attack had not killed everyone on board.

The detention marks the first time that the Trump administration’s military campaign targeting drug traffickers has resulted in the US holding prisoners, and it sets up a complicated legal and policy situation for the administration. ... The men held by the US Navy could hypothetically petition the courts to rule on the legality of their detention in what’s known as a habeas corpus claim, Finucane noted — a pathway followed by a number of detainees in the past that could reveal more information about the Trump administration’s secretive legal rationale for the strikes.

We may also finally find out what evidence the regime has that these boats are smuggling drugs. It's a serious question whether these are actually drug smugglers, or just fishermen in the wrong place.

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Montana has come up with a creative proposal to get corporate money out of politics. Prior to the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision in 2010, governments controlled corporate contributions directly, by passing campaign-finance laws. Jay Kuo:

The High Court’s decision rested on the notion that corporations, long defined as “legal persons,” are entitled to First Amendment protections just like actual people. Therefore, they held, it is a violation of their “freedom of speech” to put restrictions on what their money can say and do, even in politics.

We know what happened next. Big corporations, through super PACs and outside groups, flooded the system, drowning out individuals’ voices. And there seemed no way to stop it, short of a constitutional amendment that would allow limits on corporate political spending.

Just this summer, a federal court citing Citizens United struck down a Maine law that limited contributions to political action committees to $5,000 per donor, whether that donor was an individual or a corporation.

Critics of Citizens United like to talk about "corporate personhood", the idea that a corporation has the rights of a human being. A constitutional amendment eliminating corporate personhood (a right invented by the Supreme Court itself) seemed to be the only way out.

But a new idea is being pushed in Montana: Even if corporations are people, they are still defined by the state that incorporates them, and only have the powers their charters give them. Organizers hope to have a ballot initiative in 2026 that revises Montana's corporate code to take away corporations' power to contribute to political campaigns. Further, it would allow corporations incorporated in other states to have only the same powers as Montana corporations when they operate in Montana.

Unless the Supreme Court comes up with some new oligarchic doctrine knocking this down, other states could imitate it.


Vox' Ian Milhiser lists the five safeguards we used to have against rogue government agencies like ICE, and how the Supreme Court has blocked them.


Is anyone really surprised to discover that when Young Republicans chat among themselves, the conversation turns racist and fascist?


One more reason why Pete Hegseth should never have been allowed anywhere near the SecDef office: He OK'd a plan to celebrate the birthday of the Marine Corps by firing live artillery shells over Interstate 5 in California.

Governor Newsom ordered I-5 closed, and the administration widely criticized him for doing so. But then a shell misfired, and shrapnel rained down on J. D. Vance's security detail.


Trump commuted the 7-year prison sentence of former congressman George Santos. There has never been any question about Santos' guilt, so I can only surmise two justifications: (1) Trump doesn't think Trump supporters should be punished for committing crimes. (2) Being a fraudster himself, Trump identifies with fraudsters.


Vox' Bryan Walsh writes an optimistic piece about cities becoming more bike-able. Grist has an article on the same topic.

and let's close with something unique

I don't normally do much sports coverage, but it's worth noting that in Game 4 of the National League Championship Series, Shohei Ohtani produced what is probably the greatest single-game performance in the history of baseball. Ohtani pitched six scoreless innings and hit three home runs in a 5-1 victory that sent the LA Dodgers to the World Series.

The only player comparable to Ohtani, Babe Ruth, had two 3-homer games in his career and also had scoreless pitching starts in the post-season, but never both in the same game.

Monday, October 13, 2025

Who will protect us from our protectors?

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

- Juvenal, 2nd century AD

This week's featured posts are "Only Trump represents the People" and "Fantasies of a vast, violent left-wing conspiracy".

Ongoing stories

  • Trump's assault on American democracy. Chicago resists, while Portland responds with absurdity.
  • Climate change. There's a new warning about a tipping point for coral reefs.
  • Gaza. The peace agreement is holding, at least for now. Hostages are coming home.
  • Ukraine. Russia is escalating the risks because it is running out of time to win.

This week's developments

The Gaza Peace Plan

To my surprise, the peace agreement has held for an entire week. Today, Hamas released its surviving hostages. Here's what The Atlantic is saying:

Just over a year ago, President Joe Biden had proposed a similar deal to the one pitched by Trump, to no avail. Did Trump succeed by pressuring Netanyahu in a way that his predecessor refused to do? Or did Israel simply degrade Hamas so badly that the terrorist group had no choice but to agree? Both factors seem to have played a role. Did Arab countries sway Hamas, or did the monarchies push Trump to change his stance? Both, again, seem to have been factors, according to our conversations with 10 officials from the United States, Israel, Arab nations, and Europe, all of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss ongoing talks. Now the question is whether the swap of hostages for prisoners unfolds as planned, and whether this week’s diplomatic success will amount to anything more than a blip in the fighting.

and the ongoing invasion of Chicago

The semi-comic superhero Peacemaker once said: "I made a vow to have peace. No matter how many people I have to kill to get it." Trump's ICE raids and National Guard deployments are similar: He would have us believe that he is dead set on stopping crime, no matter how many laws he has to break to do it. And if armed men have to drag you and your family out of your home in the middle of the night and zip-tie you all in the back of a van in order to keep you safe, Trump's people are up to the job.

Here are just a few of the cases I ran into this week:

  • In Chicago, ICE shot a Presbyterian pastor the head with a pepper ball. ICE agents shot from the roof of their building. The pastor was among nonviolent protesters in the street.
  • A Delaware domestic violence victim with protected status and no criminal record was taken from her home in front of her children and flown to ICE's Louisiana concentration camp, where she was held for nearly a month before relatives and the Delaware attorney general were able to find her and negotiate her release.
  • A 13-year-old boy got arrested by police in Everett, Massachusetts. His mother was called to pick him up, but before she could get there ICE had wisked him away to Virginia. "The teen and his family, who are Brazilian nationals, have a pending asylum case and are authorized to work legally in the United States, [immigration lawyer Andrew] Lattarulo said."
  • And this: "Doctors at Adventist Health White Memorial hospital in Boyle Heights told LAist that hospital administrators are allowing federal immigration agents to interfere in medical decisions and block doctors from properly treating detainees who need emergency care."

I believe I could find large numbers of similar abuses if I looked harder. There is a crime wave in our cities, but it's not immigrants: It's ICE agents who pay no attention to the legal limits on their actions.


The big news this week mainly happened in court. The question to be resolved is how much deference courts owe a president who is either lying or completely deranged.

The laws that allow the President to federalize National Guard units and deploy them to American cities are all based on the existence of certain conditions, like "invasion" by a foreign nation, "rebellion or danger of a rebellion against the authority of the Government of the United States", or "the President is unable with the regular forces to execute the laws of the United States".

Ordinarily, if it's anything like a close call, courts defer to a president's judgment about whether such conditions exist. But if a president can make stuff up, then the conditions might as well not be in the law at all. If that's what Congress intended, the law should just say, "The President can take command of the National Guard whenever he wants."

Obviously, the law doesn't say that, so there is some limit to the deference a president is owed. Just as obviously, when Trump described Portland as "war ravaged", he passed that limit. His claims about Chicago are only somewhat more credible.

What Trump intends to do with the troops is also a factor. If the problem he intends to address is "crime" rather than rebellion or insurrection, that is better in one way and worse in another. All cities have crime, so he is at least not delusional when he refers to crime as a problem. But Posse Comitatus and other laws put firm limits on the conditions under which National Guard or regular military units can participate in law enforcement (which has long been a state and local responsibility). So he can call up units, but it's hard to see what they can do (legally) to solve a crime problem.

Here's where things stand at the moment. In Portland, a federal district judge barred Trump from sending National Guard troops -- either Oregon's or some other state's -- to Portland. However, a three-judge appeals court panel reviewing the matter has two Trump appointees, and they seemed skeptical of the lower-court's order. Portland's Channel 6 anticipates that Trump will be allowed to deploy the guard to protect ICE offices and other federal buildings, but not to do any law enforcement.

A Chicago-based federal appeals court has allowed National Guard troops (including 200 from Texas) to remain under federal control in Illinois, but not to deploy to Chicago.

Meanwhile, large numbers of non-military federal agents -- including many whose arms and uniforms make them almost indistinguishable from soldiers -- have deployed to both cities and are engaging in violent activities: attacking apartment buildings, tear-gassing peaceful protesters and journalists, marching masked down Michigan Avenue, shooting protesters, and so on.

Governor Pritzker explains Trump's plan:

This escalation of violence is targeted and intentional and premeditated. The Trump administration is following a playbook: cause chaos, create fear and confusion, make it seem like peaceful protestors are a mob, by firing gas pellets and teargas canisters at them. Why? To create the pretext for invoking the Insurrection Act, so that he can send military troops to our city. He wants to justify and normalize the presence of armed soldiers under his direct command.


The best thing anti-regime media outlets can do is post videos of what is actually happening in places like Chicago and Portland. Jimmy Kimmel has created a #ShowMeYourHellHole hashtag and asked people to post videos of what's going on around them. Here's my favorite so far.


Meanwhile, Portland is being Portland.

Crowds that have gathered daily and nightly outside the immigration facility in Oregon’s largest city in recent days have embraced the absurd, donning inflatable frog, unicorn, axolotl and banana costumes as they face off with federal law enforcement who often deploy teargas and pepper balls.

Sunday, there was a naked bike ride to protest against troops deploying into the city. See the closing for more Portlandish absurdity.

and the shutdown

There is essentially no progress to report. Democrats are refusing to approve a continuing resolution unless it addresses Obamacare subsidies, which are lapsing and will cause huge increases in many families' health insurance premiums. Republicans are refusing any concessions, even though many of them realize their own constituents are being hurt.

This week the regime announced that it was using the excuse of the government shutdown to fire more federal workers. About 4600 were let go in all, which doesn't sound like a lot compared to the size of the federal government. But certain areas were hit particularly hard: about 100 were fired from the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. Because, it's not like substance abuse is a problem in America.

and the increasing evidence of Trump's dementia

Just after midnight on Sunday, Trump posted this:

THE BIDEN FBI PLACED 274 AGENTS INTO THE CROWD ON JANUARY 6. If this is so, which it is, a lot of very good people will be owed big apologies. What a SCAM - DO SOMETHING!!! President DJT

Anybody see the problem? January 6 happened at the end of the first Trump administration. There was no "Biden FBI". Did Trump forget he was president then?


Friday, Trump held a news conference to announce an agreement with the British drug company AstraZeneca.

Under the deal, AstraZeneca agreed to sell its drugs to Medicaid, the health insurance program for lower-income Americans, at about the same prices that it offers to wealthy countries in Europe.

As with all Trump announcements, we'll have to wait and see whether this agreement has any actual effect. But I will guarantee you one thing: It won't have the effect Trump promised. Here's what he said:

Now drug prices are going to be going down 100 percent, 400 percent, 600 percent, 1,000 percent, in some cases. ... And as an example, one particular drug that's hot, very hot, 654 percent, on inhalers, COPD and asthma, as well as certain diabetics medications. They're going to be averaging about 654 percent reduction in price.

If math isn't your strong suit, let me interpret: Suppose a pill costs $1. A 100% price cut means that AstraZeneca gives you the pill for nothing. 1000% of $1 is $10. So a price reduction of 1000% means AstraZeneca will pay you $9 to take the pill. A 654% reduction means they'll pay you $5.54. Do you really believe that's going to happen?

This wasn't a slip of the tongue or a teleprompter screw-up. At the 5:20 mark in the White House video, the camera pulls back enough that you can see a poster on an easel. The poster claims that some drug has a 654% price reduction.

This raises two issues:

  • Does Trump's brain really work so badly these days that he believes price reductions over 100% are possible? (Seth Meyers would say yes.)
  • Think about the number of people who had to be involved in producing that poster and setting it up. None of them had the courage to push back and tell the Mad King "This doesn't make any sense."

And finally, let's look at the credulous press coverage Trump gets. The WaPo article on this event doesn't mention his laughable claims. The NYT mentions this dementia symptom in the 7th paragraph of its article:

He spoke of delivering seemingly impossible price reductions, such as a “654 percent discount” on Bevespi Aerosphere, an AstraZeneca inhaler for patients with respiratory problems.

Seemingly impossible? Compare this to the wall-to-wall coverage Biden would get whenever he flubbed something.

During the week that the Special Counsel’s report came out, we examined the top 20 articles on the Times’ landing page every four hours. In that time, they published 26 unique articles about Biden’s age, of which 1 of them explored the possibility that Trump’s age was of equal or more concern.

Now, Trump outright babbles and the WaPo ignores it while the NYT tells us he seems to have made a mistake. Apparently the NYT believes it is a matter of opinion whether drug prices are going down more than 100%.

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Don't forget the No Kings protests on Saturday. There's bound to be one in your area. You may not feel like you can do much to stop the Trump regime. But you can at least do this.


After a few months of relative peace, the trade war with China has restarted. China is restricting exports of rare-earth metals that are used in a wide variety of electronic devices. Trump is threatening 100% tariffs on imports from China. Investment markets crashed on Friday and have recovered somewhat today.


A new report says that the Earth's coral reefs are at a tipping point and have entered into a period of "long-term decline".

The report from scientists and conservationists warns the world is also “on the brink” of reaching other tipping points, including the dieback of the Amazon, the collapse of major ocean currents and the loss of ice sheets.


Back in May, Trump added a carrot to the stick he brandishes against undocumented immigrants: If they would self-deport, the US would fly them to any other country for free, and also give them an "exit bonus" cash payment. ProPublica followed up with immigrants who tried to take advantage of this offer. For many, it hasn't worked out the way Trump described.


Trump's Columbus Day proclamation combines Christian Nationalism with White Supremacy:

Upon his arrival, he planted a majestic cross in a mighty act of devotion, dedicating the land to God and setting in motion America’s proud birthright of faith. ... Guided by steadfast prayer and unwavering fortitude and resolve, Columbus’s journey carried thousands of years of wisdom, philosophy, reason, and culture across the Atlantic into the Americas — paving the way for the ultimate triumph of Western civilization less than three centuries later on July 4, 1776.

Isn't it weird that the Native Americans aren't more grateful for the "thousands of years of wisdom, philosophy, reason, and culture" Columbus brought to them?

and let's close with something relevant

OK, normally the closing is supposed to get your mind off the news. But the most amusing video I've seen this week is this animated music video of Portland's dancing frogs.

Monday, October 6, 2025

Companions and Instruments

A standing military force, with an overgrown Executive, will not long be safe companions to liberty. The means of defence [against] foreign danger, have been always the instruments of tyranny at home.

- James Madison, quoted by Judge Karin Immergut

This week’s featured posts are “The Silence of the Generals“ and “Trump Comes for Chicago“.

Ongoing stories

  • Trump’s assault on American democracy. Chicago and perhaps Portland are now under attack.
  • Climate change. Pope Leo spoke out reaffirming his predecessor’s opposition to climate change, saying that it should not be a divisive issue.
  • Gaza. A new peace plan is on the table. Is this any more likely to take hold than the previous ones?
  • Ukraine. I’m hearing very little news about advances on the ground in either direction. It seems for now to be mainly a drone war.

This week’s developments

The Trump/Hegseth Quantico speeches

Before the meeting of 800 admirals and generals called to Virginia, speculation was rampant about what it was for. Now that it has happened, we’re still wondering what it was for. I try to unravel it in one of the featured posts.

and the war against blue cities

This week, Blackhawk helicopters attacked an apartment building on Chicago’s south shore. The reality is just as crazy as it sounds. This is the topic of the other featured post.

I forgot to mention this in that post: The Guardian’s Oliver Laughland wrote a long on-the-scene account of the protests against ICE in Chicago, including a long interview with congressional candidate Kat Abughazaleh.

and the government shut-down

It’s been a week and neither side is budging. I’m not sure what resolves this eventually, or how long it might take. Trump needs to preserve his authoritarian narrative -- that you can’t resist him successfully, and if you try you’ll be punished. But it’s also hard to see how Democrats can give in without some kind of concession.

For what it’s worth, the public seems to be blaming Republicans more than Democrats: 39% blame the Republicans more, 30% Democrats more, and 31% both sides equally.

This is a situation where Trump-being-Trump works against his own interests. A number of congressional Republicans think they had a more persuasive blame-the-Democrats message: Let’s get a clean continuing resolution for a couple months while we work out the details, and not try to fight for policy changes yet.

But Trump keeps acting like a perpetrator rather than a victim. He wants to use the shutdown to fire more federal workers. He’s trolling Democratic leaders in insulting ways. He’s illegally using government websites and even out-of-office messages to make his political points.

Democrats, meanwhile, have a pretty good ask: Subsidies for ObamaCare healthcare policies are ending, and they want to get them re-funded. So they’re fighting to keep healthcare costs down for millions of Americans, including many Trump voters.

and Gaza

Trump put forward a peace proposal with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which Hamas gave qualified agreement to. Trump pounced on this as a win, making it hard for Netanyahu to back out.

I’m skeptical, though The New Yorker’s Ruth Margalit is less so: She considers it possible that the first step -- release of Hamas’ remaining hostages in exchange for a ceasefire and release of about 2000 of Israel’s Palestinian prisoners -- may go forward.

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I saw a weird report this morning: Google is handicapping searches asking whether Trump has symptoms of dementia. I tried it myself this morning, and sure enough: There’s no AI summary, and it’s not clear I’m getting stuff the search ought to find.

Speculation about Trump’s mental health has been ramping up lately for a number of reasons. His 70-minute ramble to the generals (see the featured post) was more muddled than usual, and he seemed tired. Governor Pritzker has raised the possibility that Trump’s bizarre posts about Portland and Chicago are demented. A judge Trump appointed himself said that his claims were “untethered to the facts“.

And why would Google need to put its thumb on the scale?


Henry Kissinger once lampooned Argentina’s strategic significance by calling it “a dagger pointed at the heart of Antarctica”. Argentina’s economy (the 23rd largest in the world, just behind Belgium) is also not particularly important. But the Trump administration is willing to risk $20 billion of taxpayer money to shore up Argentina just before a major election.

Why? The current president Javier Milei, is a Trump flatterer and a mini-Trump himself. And like Trump, he is very unpopular.

Milei earned many admirers on the right for undertaking a blitz of free-market reforms. Those included slashing government subsidies and regulations, in addition to thinning public sector ranks by 50,000 employees. In return, Trump has referred to Milei as his “favorite president” and offered an endorsement for his re-election.

Also, some well-connected hedge funds have interests in Argentina.

“Donald Trump gets a two-fer here,” [Senator Elizabeth] Warren said. “He gets to bail out his political ally in Argentina, who is very unpopular and in big trouble, and his treasury secretary apparently gets to help his hedge fund buddies.”


Cory Doctorow coined the term “enshittifciation” to explain what has happened to all major internet platforms and services, such as Facebook and Twitter: They draw an audience by providing a convenient service, but then become profitable by abusing that audience after it gets locked in.

In this Guardian article, Doctorow explains in detail the enshittifcation of Amazon, which ensnared not just consumers, but the merchants who provide the products Amazon sells. He explains why the market itself will never fix Amazon, and how it has become impervious to individual action. Only regulation can solve the problem.

The path to a better Amazon doesn’t lie through consumer activism, or appeals to the its conscience. ... Systemic problems have systemic solutions, not individual ones. You can’t shop your way out of a monopoly.


and let’s close with something festive

If you’re not finding a lot to dance about these days, maybe you should look at this collection of the 20 greatest dance routines.