Monday, July 10, 2023

Future Liberty

The next generation will have its own conceptions of liberty. It will interpret the principles of the Constitution, enduring as they are, differently than this generation has interpreted them. Change is unstoppable. And to the extent Bruen and decisions like it try to stop that change, they will not last long. The only question is how long the People will let them remain.

- Judge Carlton Reeves
United States v Bullock

This week's featured post is "Courts are still in session".

This week everybody was talking about the heat

July 4 and 5 weren't just hot days, and they didn't just set records for the highest global average temperature ever recorded. They were the hottest days in the last 125,000 years.

And the problem isn't just the heat, it's how fast the climate is changing. Here's the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's graph of the last 2,000 years' global temperatures relative to some long-term average.

The speed is important: If the climate changes over thousands or tens of thousands of years, species can migrate and interbreed and adjust. But if the same change happens over 100 years, many will just go extinct.

and court decisions

The featured post covers the injunction against Biden officials communicating with social-media companies, a Mississippi judge's argument against originalism, and an appellate court letting Tennessee's ban on gender-affirming care take effect.

In addition, more commentary on last week's Supreme Court rulings has appeared.

The Atlantic's Adam Serwer exposes "The Most Baffling Argument a Supreme Court Justice Has Ever Made": Clarence Thomas' concurrence in the decision that struck down affirmative action.

Being an "originalist", Thomas has to align his interpretation of the 14th Amendment -- that it's colorblind and does not allow race-conscious laws -- with the same Congress' reauthorization of the Freedman's Bureau to look out for the interests of the former slaves.

To square this circle, Thomas insists that the term freedmen was a “formally race-neutral category” and a “decidedly underinclusive proxy for race.”

Thomas is correct that not all Blacks in the former Confederacy had been slaves (only about 90%, Serwer says; today, not all Black people are applicants to universities). But since only Black people could have been enslaved, everyone understood that a "freedman" was Black. So Congress did indeed pass a law to help Black people.

[Thomas'] efforts at reconciliation ultimately illustrate the extent to which “originalism” is merely a process of exploiting history to justify conservative policy preferences, and not a neutral philosophical framework.

Which is more or less the same thing I was saying last week.

You might expect that this responsibility to read the text closely would limit the power of judges to insert their own views into the law, but as practiced by the current justices, it does the exact opposite. Understanding how words were commonly understood at some point in the past is a job for historians, and the justices are not historians. Nor do they typically respect the consensus of the people who are historians.

Instead, we are treated to excursions into history that — voila! — always reach the desired result. If you’ve ever delved deeply into history yourself, you should understand how unlikely this is. History, researched honestly, frequently jars your preconceived notions. But the conservative justices are never jarred off their favored course.


Like almost every other week, there's a new story about Clarence Thomas living the high life, and his rich "friends" footing the bill.


Jamelle Bouie points out something significant in John Roberts' opinions in race cases: He never talks about racism itself.

I want to highlight Chief Justice Roberts's avoidance of racism as a prime example of "racecraft," the term coined by the historians Karen and Barbara Fields to describe the transmutation of a set of actions (racism) into a set of qualities or characteristics (race).

Racecraft, the Fieldses write in "Racecraft: The Soul of Inequality in America," "transforms racism, something an aggressor does, into race, something the target is, in a sleight of hand that is easy to miss."


Linda Greenhouse takes a long-term look at what John Roberts has accomplished for conservatives:

To appreciate that transformation’s full dimension, consider the robust conservative wish list that greeted the new chief justice 18 years ago: Overturn Roe v. Wade. Reinterpret the Second Amendment to make private gun ownership a constitutional right. Eliminate race-based affirmative action in university admissions. Elevate the place of religion across the legal landscape. Curb the regulatory power of federal agencies.

These goals were hardly new, but to conservatives’ bewilderment and frustration, the court under the previous chief justice, the undeniably conservative William Rehnquist, failed to accomplish a single one of them.

18 years later, Roberts has achieved them all.


In the featured post, I compare the ambiguity of the social-media injunction to that of anti-critical-race-theory laws, where the proposed applications of the law seem at odds with its text, leaving teachers wondering what is actually legal.

The problem is that it's almost impossible to interpret anti-critical-race-theory laws so that they simultaneously

  • make sense
  • apply to something real.

A recent flap in Oklahoma illustrates the point: Given Oklahoma's anti-CRT law, can schools teach about the Tulsa Massacre of 1921, in which White mobs invaded a prosperous Black suburb, massacred hundreds of people, and burned 35 blocks of buildings?

Yes, says state superintendent of schools Ryan Walters, but only if you do it right. I quote at length here to be scrupulously fair to Walters:

I would never tell a kid that because of your race, because of the color of your skin, or your gender or anything like that, you are less of a person or are inherently racist. That doesn’t mean you don’t judge the actions of individuals. Oh, you can. Absolutely, historically, you should. ‘This was right. This was wrong. They did this for this reason.’ But to say it was inherent in that because of their skin is where I say that is Critical Race Theory. You’re saying that race defines a person.

Several commentators interpreted Walters as saying that the massacre wasn't really about race, or at least, that we shouldn't tell the kids that it was. That would be a crazy point for Walters to be making, but that's not how I read his words.

To me he seems to be saying that teaching about the massacre only goes wrong if you teach that the White rioters were driven to violence by some inherent flaw in their DNA, i.e., some racist gene that White students in the class likely share. (My initial reading seems consistent with the way Walters followed up: "I am referring to individuals who carried out the crime. They didn’t act that way because they were White, they acted that way because they were racist.")

So if I make that interpretation, I have to agree with him: Blaming some inescapable quality of whiteness would be a terrible way to teach the massacre. It might even convince some White kids that they are "less of a person" because of "the color of their skin". So in my interpretation, Walters' answer passes the "make sense" requirement.

But then we hit the second horn of the dilemma: Has anyone in the entire history of Oklahoma schools ever taught the massacre that way? Has any teacher ever told his or her class that White people are genetically inclined to massacre Black people? I haven't read every anti-racism book out there, but I've read a lot of them. And I've never seen anything like that account of white-on-black violence.

Summing up: If you define CRT in such a way that it's obviously objectionable, then your ban doesn't ban anything that is actually taught. Conversely, if you define CRT so that it applies to things that are actually taught, then it's not all that objectionable.

Teachers, principals, and superintendents don't want to take the risk of interpreting the laws literally, because that means the legislature was just wasting its time and didn't actually intend to ban anything. And so they are left to imagine what the law will mean in practice, and to self-censor accordingly.

and Moms for "Liberty"

You probably didn't pay much attention to the Moms For "Liberty" national summit in Philadelphia a little over a week ago, which drew most of the top Republican presidential candidates, including Trump and DeSantis.

One night's keynote speaker was less famous: right-wing talk show host Dennis Praeger. But I think this quote explains a lot:

God made order out of chaos, and the left is making chaos out of order. The notion that there is no such thing as a male or a female human being is chaos. It is a gigantic lie, but it is more than a lie, it is chaos. ... [O]rder reflects God, the Creator.

One of the things I always wonder, when MFL-type people respond with near-violent anger to trans youth or drag queens or some other manifestation of gender ambiguity is "Why do you care?" If somebody you perceive as a guy wants to express his liberty by wearing a skirt or eye shadow, or holding hands with another guy, what's it to you? How does that ruin your day?

I think the Praeger quote explains it: An authoritarian world with clear rules and clear categories comes with an implicit promise of safety for those who obey and conform. So that nonbinary kid on the subway whose gender you can't quite identify -- it's not that they're going to attack you themselves. It's that they represent a crack in the "safe" world order, a manifestation of Chaos. And as those cracks grow, who can predict what demons will spill into the world?

Of course, obedience and conformity are the exact opposite of the Liberty the group is supposed to stand for. But I guess Moms For Obedience and Conformity just doesn't have the same ring.

Anyway, this explains how Trump can say weird stuff like "Democrats hate God" -- as he did in his conference speech -- and not be sedated and sent to a mental ward for his own protection. It's all part of the "spiritual warfare" that increasingly justifies right-wing violence.


Some background: MFL has largely followed the model of the Tea Party from 2009-10: a group organized around local chapters that can expand rapidly because it has access to large amounts of dark money, making it a blend of grassroots and astroturf. Peter Greene describes it like this:

While the movement is not exactly fake, it’s not exactly real, either. Conservatives who argue that this is just a grass roots groundswell are ignoring the deliberate moves made to ramp up this controversy, most notably by Christopher Rufo

Leading anti-wii groups like Moms for Liberty and Parents Defending Education are operated by professional communications folks and seasoned political operatives, but that doesn’t mean they haven’t activated and harnessed actual anger and upset among people on the ground.

Historian Nicole Hammer places them in the tradition of 20th century right-wing women's groups.

These mothers’ movements, from the WKKK, to massive resistance to Save Our Children, all relied on the image of mothers protecting children. But they were in service of a much larger political project: shoring up traditional hierarchies of race and sexuality. They were about motherhood and education, but as a means to an end. Moms for Liberty operates in precisely the same way, building on this century-long tradition. The book bans, the curricula battles, the efforts to fire teachers and disrupt school board meetings — little here is new.

and you also might be interested in ...

Who could have anticipated this? Launching Trump's "Truth Social" Twitter clone involved a securities fraud that has led to an $18 million civil settlement with the SEC. How does such a straight-shooting, tell-it-like-it-is guy keep winding up in the middle of fraud? Just bad luck, I guess.


In the previous section, I discussed the conservative tendency to see liberals as demonic. I confess I'm tempted to do something similar when I see articles like this one: "House Republicans target the Pentagon's use of electric vehicles".

The generals note some tactical advantages of electric vehicles: They're quieter and cooler, so they'll be harder for the enemy to detect.

But of course, electric jeeps and tanks would also make the world a better place by limiting carbon emissions, and that can't be tolerated.


Paul Waldman interprets the "Freedom" Caucus' attempt to expel Marjorie Taylor Greene: Greene and the Caucus have conflicting views on how to gain and wield power.


Soraya Chemaly discusses Josh Hawley's book on masculinity, which I have not yet steeled myself to read. One trait I'm coming to appreciate in arguments is a willingness to restate what the opponent gets right, as Chemaly does here:

A recent study conducted by Equimundo Center for Masculinities and Social Justice indicates that Hawley’s onto something and identifies the important connection between manhood and a sense of purpose. While boys and men in America are diffusely struggling to understand masculinity and changing gender roles, the study finds, one cohort of boys and men is not struggling to find meaning: those with the most conservative and traditional beliefs. 

The challenge, Chemaly rightly (IMO) observes, is to come up with a vision of male purpose that doesn't assume male dominance, as traditional beliefs do. I mean, me-running-everything is a vision of my purpose that I can easily accept, but I don't see why anyone else should accept it.

The increasing gender equality of recent decades has upset a vision of male purpose that relies on male dominance. One solution -- Hawley's (though he would probably deny it) -- is just to undo it all and let men dominate again. That's conceptually simple, but I can't believe there's nothing better.

and let's close with something scenic

I love photo contests. It's not just the beauty or poignancy of the image itself, but also the fantasy of traveling to exotic locations, finding the perfect spot, and knowing exactly when to push the button.

So while I have no idea who Prince Albert II of Monaco is, I am grateful to his foundation for establishing an environmental photography award. This year's winners were announced last month. Here's a shot of an ice cave in Iceland.

Monday, July 3, 2023

Ignorance seeking bliss

Ignoring race will not equalize a society that is racially unequal. What was true in the 1860s, and again in 1954, is true today: Equality requires acknowledgment of inequality.

- Justice Sonia Sotomayor
SFFA v Harvard, dissenting

This week's featured post is "The Court Unleashed".

This week everybody was talking about the Supreme Court

As usual, and as I predicted last week, the Court saved its most controversial decisions for last. In the featured post, I examined how the Court is throwing off any restraint on its power. For a case-by-case analysis, I'll refer you to a series of articles by Vox' Ian Millhiser.

Another angle not covered in the featured post is what happens next. On student loan relief, President Biden has not given up. His Department of Education is working on a new approach based on a different law.

On LGBTQ rights, the ball is in the bigots' court. As I explained in the featured post, the 303 Creative case was vaporous, so there are no immediate consequences: Maybe Lorie Smith will start her wedding website business and maybe it will discriminate, but who really cares? Her case was a stalking horse for future discrimination, and we'll have to wait and see what that discrimination entails.

The affirmative action case is immediately consequential if you hope to attend a university in the coming years. The first thing to look for is what each institution's new admission policy is, and whether they try to achieve the goal of a diverse student body in some other way -- say by focusing on class rather than race, or recruiting a more diverse applicant poll, or something else.

Whatever they do, it seems likely that Black and Hispanic enrollment in elite universities and professional schools will drop, at least in the near term.

A few people on my social media feed have suggested an intriguing idea: What if some religion-affiliated university claims that its religious mission requires a diverse student body? How would the Court handle a religious-freedom defense of an affirmative-action admission policy?

My candidate university: Georgetown.

“Georgetown, the oldest Catholic and Jesuit university in the nation, was founded on the principle that engagement between people of different faiths, cultures and beliefs promotes intellectual development, an understanding of service and solidarity, and a commitment to the common good,” says Georgetown President John J. DeGioia. “Our Jesuit tradition of education recognizes the value of diversity as necessary to education and in our work to shape future leaders who will make invaluable contributions to our national and global communities.”

Another possibility is Notre Dame, where Amy Coney Barrett got her law degree and used to teach.

At Notre Dame, our Catholic mission compels us to build a class reflecting the diversity of experiences and gifts of the human family. We undertake a comprehensive assessment of applicants, admit talented students with interests and aspirations consonant with our mission, and provide opportunities for a wide range of young people. These commitments are as meaningful today at Notre Dame as they were yesterday. We will study the Supreme Court’s decision and consider any implications for our admissions process as we strive to fulfill our distinctive mission.


In the background of the affirmative action debate is a national sense of disappointment. In the 1960s, it was easy to imagine that our racial caste system needed a legal framework. Once Jim Crow and various other legally enforced discrimination ended, many of us expected things to equalize. In a generation or two, race truly would not matter.

By now it's obvious that didn't happen. So we're seeing a number of possible responses:

  • Pretend it did happen. This seems to be Chief Justice Roberts' approach: It's been such a long time, racism must be over by now.
  • Blame Black people: We really did level the playing field, so anybody who can't climb the meritocracy must just lack merit.
  • Blame White people: Prejudice is so strongly ingrained in Whites that we can't let Blacks succeed.
  • Look for structural inertia. Once a caste system takes root, it manifests in more places than just the law. It was naive to think that ending blatant legal discrimination would fix everything.

Personally, I'm a structuralist. White prejudice still persists and still matters; I can see it in myself, for example. But I don't think the personal prejudices of individual Whites are the main force keeping Black people down.


Some of the best short-form political satire comes from the NYT Pitchbot, which suggests articles for the New York Times to pursue:

Opinion | Without the burden of affirmative action, Harvard can finally become a true meritocracy by Jared Kushner and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

and Bidenomics

It goes without saying that the Biden administration doesn't hype itself as often or as well as the Trump administration did. Trump is a natural braggart and showman, while Biden has consistently focused more on governing than on taking credit.

In part, not taking credit is part of Biden's governing strategy: He has gotten a surprising amount of Republican cooperation on stuff like infrastructure and technology precisely because he leaves the focus on infrastructure and technology rather than making it all about himself. Trump, on the other hand, consistently failed to get programs through Congress, even when his party controlled both houses.

The result is that Biden consistently runs behind Trump in polls about managing the economy, in spite of the fact that Biden's record is pretty darn good: Trump handed him a terrible economy in 2021, and yet the predicted recession never comes and jobs continue to be created at record rates. Trump's economic record can be summed up in two lines: Obama left him a growing economy with room to run, and Mitch McConnell let him run big deficits that he would have rejected under a Democratic president. Nothing else about the Trump administration made much economic difference.

But it's nearly impossible to get reelected without claiming credit for things, so Biden has begun to lay claim to a term Republicans have been using as an insult: Bidenomics.

Bidenomics isn't just a slogan and a set of graphs. It actually means something that should be popular if people hear its message. Ever since Reagan, the economy has been run under a trickle-down theory: Make sure rich people have lots of money and hope they invest it in things that create jobs. That was the logic of Trump's tax cut, which went almost entirely to corporations and the rich.

Biden's vision is to build the economy "from the middle out and the bottom up". The three legs Bidenomics stands on are: public investment in infrastructure and future oriented industries like sustainable energy; empowering the workforce through training and unionization; and promoting competition through antitrust enforcement.

and you also might be interested in ...

A January 6 defendant was arrested near Barrack Obama's home with two guns and 400 rounds of ammunition.


Pro-science podcaster Skepchick (Rebecca Watson) lines up on the don't-debate-kooks side of the Peter Hotez/Joe Rogan/RFK Jr. controversy that I discussed last week. In case you imagine RFK Jr. can't really be that bad, Rebecca summarizes what he said on Rogan's show ("to which Joe Rogan responded with a pathetic, open-mouthed gape").

vaccines cause autism, vaccines contain mercury, ivermectin cures COVID, “Big Pharma” “had to destroy” ivermectin to get emergency use authorization for vaccines, all the studies showing no benefit to ivermectin are fake, taking the COVID vaccine makes you “21 percent more likely to die of all causes,” he’s being silenced by “Big Pharma,” and oh yeah, wifi “radiation” ALSO causes autism plus food allergies, asthma, and eczema while “degrad(ing) your mitochondria and (opening) your blood-brain barrier.”

I can understand Democrats worrying about Biden's age, or wishing the liberal worldview had a more charismatic advocate. But seriously, is that what you want in a president?

and let's close with something pop cultural

As the Oppenheimer movie opens, let's flash back to Oppy's previous pop-culture appearance: his rap battle with Thanos.

Monday, June 26, 2023

Well-wrapped Riddles

I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.

- Winston Churchill
October, 1939

This week's featured posts are "Pardon?" (where I consider whether Biden should pardon Trump) and "Sam Alito: yet another corrupt conservative justice". And this is what I did with my week off.

This week everybody was talking about Russia

Russia just had a WTF weekend:

The crisis in Russia erupted Friday when [Wagner mercenary group leader Yevgeny] Prigozhin accused Russia’s military of attacking a Wagner camp and killing his men – and vowed to retaliate by force.

Prigozhin then led his troops into Russia: He occupied Rostov-on-Don and claimed to have taken control of key military facilities in the Voronezh region, where there was an apparent clash between Wagner units and Russian forces.

The crisis was apparently resolved by a deal: Prigozhin has gone to Belarus and treason charges against him have been dropped. (Though no one has actually seen him in Belarus yet. For that matter, no one has seen Putin in the last couple days either.)

Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) makes an analogy (which I've fleshed out a little): Imagine if an American military contractor (Blackwater, say) turned its troops toward Washington, marched a considerable distance, and only stopped when its leader (Erik Prince, in this analogy) was given asylum in Canada.

WTF indeed.

I won't say nobody saw this coming, because I remember seeing a prediction last summer -- I wish I remembered where -- that the Ukraine War would end when unrest in Russia caused the various factions to bring their troops home.

That scenario seemed far-fetched to me at the time, but it's looking a lot more credible now.

BTW: Be wary of any American pundit who claims to know what's going to happen next. This New Yorker article is as good as anything I've seen. David Remnick talks to Russian emigre journalist Mikhail Zygar:

"Putin is weaker. I have the feeling he is not really running the country. Certainly, not the way he once did. He is still President, but all the different clans”—the factions within the government, the military, and, most important, the security services—“now have the feeling that ‘Russia after Putin’ is getting closer. Putin is still alive. He is still there in his bunker. But there is the growing feeling that he is a lame duck, and they have to prepare for Russia after Putin."

But everybody is just guessing. There's a broad consensus that Putin's hold on power is weaker than anyone previously thought. How much weaker? Nobody really knows.

Also, Putin is evil, but that doesn't mean Prigozhin is good. His Wagner mercenaries have committed atrocities in Ukraine, and if Putin doesn't get him first, he'll probably be tried for war crimes someday.

and GOP conspiracy theories going splat

This week, two Trump-appointed investigators disappointed MAGA conspiracy theorists: Special Counsel John Durham testified to Congress and US Attorney David Weiss settled charges against Hunter Biden with no jail time.


Remember when Trump had Bill Barr appoint John Durham to uncover "the crime of the century"? You know, stuff that was "far bigger than anybody thought possible"? Like how the FBI conspired with Hillary Clinton to invent "the Russia hoax" out of nothing and smear Trump with it in an attempted coup?

Well, never mind. Wednesday Durham testified to the House Judiciary Committee about the dense and headline-free 300-page final report he submitted in May. Republicans on the committee desperately wanted Durham to verify their conspiracy theories exonerating Trump, and to flesh out their dark fantasies of a Deep State conspiracy against him, but he did not do so.

Instead, he said that Russian election interference was real, ("[O]ur report should not be read to suggest that Russian election interference was not a significant threat. It was."), that Robert Mueller is "a patriot", and that Merrick Garland didn't interfere with his investigation.

He admitted that the reason that former President Obama and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton still walk free, no matter how much Trumpworld wants them behind bars, is that there’s simply no evidence of wrongdoing.

He criticized how the FBI handled the Trump/Russia investigation, but found a series of individual errors, not a vast conspiracy. In the end, Matt Gaetz accused Durham of being "part of the cover-up". Because that's what you do after you give a guy 3+ years and millions of dollars to investigate something, and he can't tell you what you want to hear.

Gaetz is applying the usual conspiracy-theory rule: The complete lack of evidence is the surest proof that the conspiracy is working.


Hunter Biden is pleading guilty to two tax misdemeanors, has paid his previously unpaid taxes, and has struck a deal with DoJ to resolve a federal gun charge. He'll serve two years probation. All the unsubstantiated rumors Republicans have been spreading about multi-million-dollar bribery schemes that implicate his father have come to nothing.

The US attorney in charge of the Hunter investigation is David Weiss, who was appointed by Trump and left in place by the Biden administration. The plea deal now goes to a Trump-appointed judge for approval.

Through a spokesperson, Joe Biden commented as a father, not as the prosecutor's boss.

The President and First Lady love their son and support him as he continues to rebuild his life. We will have no further comment.

Did Weiss cut Hunter a sweetheart deal? Republicans, of course, claim he did. But most legal experts say no.

“If Hunter Biden’s name was John or Jane Doe, no criminal tax prosecution would have ever been contemplated and he would have almost certainly been slotted into a pre-trial diversion program, saving the government the time and expense of a trial,” said Martin Sheil, a former supervisory special agent in the IRS Criminal Investigation.

“So if Hunter has paid all of his taxes, albeit delinquently, arguably Uncle Sam has suffered no harm and justice was done,” Sheil said.

And as for the weapons charge, CNN legal analyst Elie Honig says:

[T]he vast majority of federal gun crimes involve somebody who either used the gun in some sort of violent crime or somebody who’s a prior convicted felon. ... So it’s rare to even see someone prosecuted at all under the law that Hunter Biden was prosecuted for, which is possession of a gun by an addict.

and the Supreme Court

Supreme Court stories come in two flavors: rulings they've made and new insight into the corruption of the conservative justices. This week we had one of each: The Biden administration won an immigration case against two red-state attorneys general, and this time it was Sam Alito who got caught with his hand in the cookie jar. (I cover Alito in a featured post.)


First the immigration case: Under Trump, any immigrant without legal status was subject to deportation. When Biden took over, he issued a new order prioritizing three classes of the undocumented: suspected terrorists, criminals, and those recently caught at the border. In effect, this meant that most of the country's 11 million undocumented immigrants could live their lives without fear. (One consequence of this policy was that the woman who had been in sanctuary at my church for three years could finally leave.)

Texas and Louisiana sued to stop this change, but Friday the Court ruled 8-1 that they lack standing. Brett Kavanaugh wrote the majority opinion.

Kavanaugh framed the dispute as an effort by the two states to obtain a court order that would require DHS to “alter its arrest policy so that the Department arrests more noncitizens.” But there is no history of courts “ordering the Executive Branch to change its arrest or prosecution policies so that the Executive Branch makes more arrests or initiates more prosecutions.”


This week ends the Court's term, so we're expecting decisions in several major cases:

  • whether universities can use affirmative action in their admission decisions
  • the legality of Biden's student-loan forgiveness program
  • whether a state supreme court can overrule gerrymandering by the legislature
  • yet another religious "freedom" vs. minority rights case

My guess is that Roberts has manipulated the calendar so that the Court's most controversial decisions will come last. The cases decided recently have been divided between liberal and conservative wins, building up Roberts' "centrist" credibility.

But there's no point in speculating, because by Thursday we'll know.

and you also might be interested in ...

For several days, the media obsessed over the fate of the Titan, a small submarine carrying tourists to the site of the Titanic wreck on the floor of the Atlantic Ocean. For days, a global audience imagined the five people on board stranded and running out of oxygen, but it's now believed that the sub imploded around the time contact was lost, killing everyone instantly.

A ticket to visit the Titanic went for $250,000. Because the Titanic is in international waters, no country's safety regulations applied. Wikipedia says: "The vessel was not certified as seaworthy by any regulatory agency or third-party organization."

At more-or-less the same time, a fishing boat carrying 750 migrants sank off the coast of Greece, killing more than 500. The NYT examines why this larger disaster received far less attention.


Your social media feed may not have blown up with discussions of whether vaccine researcher Dr. Peter Hotez should debate vaccine denier Robert Kennedy Jr. on Joe Rogan's podcast. But mine did. Rogan has offered $100K to the charity of Hotez's choice, and Hotez has turned him down.

There's been a lot of back-and-forth about whether this is the right decision or not. (I think it is.) I think David Roberts has the most thoughtful take on the subject: What makes science science is that it's not two individuals trying to sway a crowd. It's a social process through which a community of well-trained researchers checks and rechecks each other's work.

If you put evidence & empiricism aside at the beginning, then charisma is your only guide, & if charisma is your only guide, getting taken in & conned by glib charlatans is 100% inevitable. There's no squaring that circle.

... Over time, science has stumbled in the direction of reliable truth, because it hasn't relied on brilliant or charismatic individuals, but rather on a *social* process of mutual checking & re-checking, covering each other's blind spots. The thing about science, as I said, is that it tacks directly against some strong human instincts. That's why it requires specialized training & specialized institutions, and even then it falls short repeatedly. You have to actively push/support it to keep it alive.

Anyway, what I see -- not only in conservative religious communities like evangelicals but in today's reactionary politics -- is a kind of pre-scientific understanding of truth in which there are nothing but competing tribes with contesting claims, and the way to decide between them basically comes down to aesthetics or identity. It's who talks best, who has the best rap. You see this in how they approach, eg, journalism: the demand that media must print the claims of each side, because there are *only* claims, only tribes, nothing beyond.

... And at long last this brings me back around to "debate me, bro." If you understand science & the scientific method, you understand the very obvious reasons that live debate is a terrible, terrible way to seek truth. It is a format that strips away everything *except* charisma.

Truth-seeking is slow, incremental, & above all *social*. Live debate is all about big dramatic claims & facility with language. It selects for charisma, not truth. But! If you have this pre-scientific, evangelical conception of truth, then there is *only* charisma and so it follows that live debate is the perfect way to settle claims. Who can give the best rap? Who can dazzle the audience? Who's funny or charming or has good anecdotes? Who can talk faster?


This week's shooting-fish-in-barrel target comes from Nikki Haley:

Do you remember when you were growing up, do you remember how simple life was, how easy it felt? It was about faith, family, and country. We can have that again, but to do that, we must vote Joe Biden out.

That tweet went viral, and lots of people, particularly those who experienced abuse or discrimination or violence while growing up, reacted with hostility. And I get that response, but it's probably what Haley wanted: She trolled them, because defending a nostalgic myth of America against angry people who know better is a good look for a Republican presidential candidate.

And that's why I like Paula Poundstone's more compassionate response:

Nikki, it's possible that when you were growing up, like me, you just weren't aware of much of what was going on in the country. It's important that, as adults, we try to inform ourselves, instead of trying to recreate our own ignorance.

After all, the point isn't to school Nikki Haley, who probably knows exactly she's doing. The point is to address people who read Haley's tweet and long for the feeling she's describing. Striking back at Haley makes them feel like you're striking at them (and increases their identification with Haley).

So here's what I'll add to Poundstone's tweet: When you're growing up, good parents will try to shield you from trauma and horror. If you're lucky they'll succeed, and you'll reach your teen years with a deep inner conviction that life makes sense and the world is tractable.

But if, as an adult, you want a leader to recreate that feeling for you now, you are looking for an authoritarian personality cult, a Big Daddy or Big Mommy who can reassure you that everything is going to be OK. And Haley is right: Biden won't do that for you.

and let's close with something deep

The search for the Titan sub points out something we slide over in common language: We talk about "the bottom of the sea" as if it were a specific place. But what you're really talking about depends on where you are. This animation makes it clear why the site of the Titanic is very different from the places where scuba divers or submarines typically go. (The Titanic shows up at about the 3:30 mark.)

Monday, June 12, 2023

Bamboozlement and Truth

One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.

- Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World

This week's featured post is "The Mar-a-Lago Documents Indictment".

This week everybody was talking about the Trump indictment

That's the subject of the featured post.

Jeff Sharlet takes a deep dive into the fascist codewords in Trump's first post-federal-indictment speech. Among other things, Sharlet has the only coherent interpretation I've heard of "Jack Smith. Does anyone know what his name used to be?" Sharlet reads this as an implication that Smith is Jewish, and hence part of the conspiracy of "globalists" and "Marxists", which are also fascist codewords for Jews.

Jack Smith, claims Trump, "caused" the IRS to "go after evangelicals, Christians, great Americans of faith." Get the antisemitism? Jack Smith, who must have changed his name must be a Jewish enemy of Christianity.

Sharlet also has a principle I will have to keep in mind: You can't fact-check a myth, but you can interpret it.

What he seems to mean by that is that it does no good to point out that what Trump (or some other fascist) says is untrue. His followers probably already know that it's untrue, or they don't care. The point of saying such things is to communicate something. Decoding the communication is more important than challenging the fact.

I believe he referenced the following Sartre quote somewhere, but I can't find the link:

Never believe that anti-Semites are completely unaware of the absurdity of their replies. They know that their remarks are frivolous, open to challenge. But they are amusing themselves, for it is their adversary who is obliged to use words responsibly, since he believes in words. The anti-Semites have the right to play. They even like to play with discourse for, by giving ridiculous reasons, they discredit the seriousness of their interlocutors. They delight in acting in bad faith, since they seek not to persuade by sound argument but to intimidate and disconcert. If you press them too closely, they will abruptly fall silent, loftily indicating by some phrase that the time for argument is past.

and wildfire smoke

We usually associate wildfires with the West, and mostly with sparsely populated areas. But this week smoke from wildfires in Canada blanketed the densely populated Northeast, including New York, Boston, and Philadelphia.

Most of the time, climate change seems abstract, but scenes like the one below bring it home.

and the other Republicans running for president

There's a type of self-fulfilling prophesy that always drives me nuts: Because everyone believes "You can't do X", nobody even tries to do X. And then the fact that X doesn't happen is taken as evidence for "You can't do X."

One case in point is the belief among Republicans that "You can't stand up to Trump." So again and again we've seen some senator like Jeff Flake or Bob Corker or Ben Sasse criticize Trump in some fairly mild way, and then not seek reelection. At each impeachment trial, Mitch McConnell had it in his power to remove Trump from office and make him ineligible to run again, but he backed down both times. Trump was almost untouchable for a few weeks after January 6, but then Kevin McCarthy made a pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago to kiss his ring.

For six years now, Republicans who are secretly anti-Trump have been hoping that someone else -- the Democrats, the courts, more courageous Republicans -- would take Trump out, absorb the anger of his cult, and leave them to pick up the pieces. But it hasn't happened.

Liz Cheney and Mitt Romney are the most visible Trump critics who did not voluntarily walk into the sunset. Cheney was expelled from the party, but Romney still seems to be doing fine. For the most part, though, the Republican Party has surrendered without putting up a fight. It's hard to blame Republican voters for believing there's no case against Trump, when none of their elected leaders are willing to make that case.

The first few candidates to challenge Trump for the 2024 Republican nomination continued the pattern. Listening to Nikki Haley or Tim Scott raises an obvious question: "Why are you running?" If the front-runner in the race was such a great president and you have no signature issue you would handle differently, why go to all the bother?

Mike Pence's timid criticisms inspired this parody from Josh Marshall:

Pence: I should have been hanged. Trump couldn’t get it done. I will.

For a long time Ron DeSantis seemed to think he could handle Trump without confronting him, but that resulted in a collapse of the strong position he held in the polls after the midterm elections, where DeSantis did well and Trump-endorsed candidates did badly. But key Republican constituencies -- White working-class men, Evangelical Christians -- are looking for a fighter who will stand up to the cultural forces working against them. Every time DeSantis takes a punch from Trump without punching back, he convinces more voters that he's not that guy.

Well finally somebody has entered the race to go after Trump: Chris Christie, who has a CNN town hall tonight.

The grift from this family is breathtaking. It’s breathtaking. Jared Kushner and Ivanka Kushner walk out of the White House, and months later get $2 billion from the Saudis. You think it’s because he’s some kind of investing genius? Or do you think it’s because he was sitting next to the president of the United States for four years doing favors for the Saudis? That’s your money. That’s your money he stole and gave it to his family. You know what that makes us? A banana republic.

He has almost no chance to be the nominee himself, but maybe he can wound Trump badly enough to give someone else a shot at the nomination.

and the voting-rights decision

Chief Justice Roberts has been chipping away at the Voting Right Act for years, so it was a surprise Thursday when Roberts wrote a majority opinion preserving what is left of the VRA. Roberts and Brett Kavanaugh joined the court's three liberals (Kagan, Sotomayor, and Jackson) in a 5-4 decision rejecting Alabama's congressional map, which is drawn so that only one of the seven districts has a non-white majority.

Decades of precedent have interpreted the VRA as requiring the creation of majority-minority districts when a state's voters are racially polarized, the current map results in a congressional delegation where minorities are under-represented, and the districts can be drawn without violating other principles of sound redistricting, like forming compact and contiguous districts that don't split cities and counties unnecessarily. This has become known as the Gingles test, after the 1986 case where it was spelled out.

Alabama could easily have created a second majority-minority district, bringing its congressional delegation closer to racial parity. But it chose not to, inviting the Court to replace Gingles with a less rigorous test. Justices Alito, Thomas, Gorsuch, and Coney Barrett agreed with Alabama.

So the current decision preserves the status quo. It doesn't represent an advance in minority voting rights.

This decision concerns an injunction, not a final resolution of the case. But the injunction is based in part on the Court's assessment that Alabama is likely to lose on the merits.

Personally, I remain skeptical of Roberts' intentions. Like Ed Pilkington in The Guardian, I think Roberts plays a long game. Whenever he is about to push hard in one direction, he first makes a head fake in the opposite direction to give himself cover.

Any day now, I expect the Court to strike down affirmative action in college admissions. When that happens, the media will reference this voting-rights decision to frame Roberts as a "moderate". Taken as a whole, though, the two decisions will represent a continued whittling down of minority rights, and Roberts can continue destroying the VRA in some later decision.

and the Right shutting down the House

The resolution of the debt-ceiling crisis showed that the far-right House "Freedom" Caucus has less power than they like to think. Naturally, they have to do something to strike back.

Originally, everyone expected they would exercise the concession they got when Kevin McCarthy needed their votes to become speaker: Any single member can introduce a resolution the "vacate the chair" and reopen the speaker election.

Apparently that didn't suit their purposes, though, so they have struck back at the House as a whole rather than just McCarthy. They have been withholding their support on the procedural motions that bills need to progress towards passage, so the House is essentially shut down.

So far, this is just affecting Republican priorities, like a bill to stop the completely imaginary threat that Biden might ban gas stoves. But the federal fiscal year ends on September 30, so if new appropriation bills aren't passed by then, the government will have to shut down.

and golf

Corporate PR efforts have expanded our language in so many ways. Many of the new terms spin off of whitewashing, a metaphor for putting a deceptively bright sheen on something rotten. For example, the NRDC has defined greenwashing like this:

Greenwashing is the act of making false or misleading statements about the environmental benefits of a product or practice. It can be a way for companies to continue or expand their polluting as well as related harmful behaviors, all while gaming the system or profiting off well-intentioned, sustainably minded consumers.

This year, Saudi Arabia's sponsorship of a new golf league, LIV, popularized a new -washing term: sportswashing, which Greenpeace defines:

Sportswashing is the act of sponsoring a sports team or event in order to distract from bad practices elsewhere. This tactic is often used by companies and governments with poor environmental or human rights records, exploiting people's love of sport to 'wash' their image clean.

Saudi Arabia's image desperately needs washing. They're a repressive feudal monarchy with a wasteful and corrupt royal family. They export a dangerous strain of Islam. 15 of the 19 9-11 hijackers were Saudi, as was Osama bin Laden. They sponsor war crimes in Yemen. Their crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, ordered the killing and dismemberment of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who was residing in Virginia and working for The Washington Post at the time of his death. Currently, they are working with Russia to keep oil prices high, which helps Putin finance his war in Ukraine.

But on the plus side, they have oil and a huge amount of money: Their sovereign wealth fund is sitting on more than $600 billion. So the fund created the LIV golf tour and started writing nine-figure checks to secure the participation of big-name golfers.

This presented a moral challenge to golfers, and the words "blood money" came up fairly often. The previously dominant PGA tour capitalized on that. PGA Commissioner Jay Monahan challenged golfers by invoking the families of 9-11 victims:

I would ask any player who has left or any player who would consider leaving: "Have you ever had to apologize for being a member of the PGA Tour?"

Well, this week Monahan announced a merger with LIV. Let the apologies begin.

and you also might be interested in ...

Anti-abortion Republicans have been pushing 12-week bans as a "compromise", citing similar bans in Europe. The Atlantic's Julie Suk comments: Not only do Republicans offer far fewer and stricter exceptions than European countries do, but

Republicans are interested in only one part of the European approach to protecting life—the abortion restrictions. They seem to forget that every European country that protects unborn life by restricting abortion after the first trimester protects born life too, through prenatal health care, paid maternity leave, and a public infrastructure for child care and preschool. If Republicans are sincere in invoking Europe as a model, Democrats and other proponents of abortion access should seize this chance to find common ground on policies that would substantially improve the lives of mothers and children in this country.


After months of speculation, the Ukrainian counter-offensive has started. Ukraine reports some advances, but so far it's hard to tell from the outside whether the offensive is going well or not.

Meanwhile, Russian rebels based in Ukraine have raided and shelled a sliver of Russia.


Pat Robertson died at the age of 93. I mark his passing by remembering two moments in his career:

Robertson called feminism a “socialist, anti-family political movement that encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcraft, destroy capitalism and become lesbians”. ... [O]n his TV show The 700 Club, he agreed emphatically with his fellow evangelist Jerry Falwell’s theory that the 9/11 attacks were caused by “pagans, abortionists, feminists, gays, lesbians, the American Civil Liberties Union, and [the progressive advocacy group] People for the American Way”.

I am a Universalist, so I don't believe in a vengeful God. If there is an afterlife, I picture it as a place of mercy and compassion rather than retribution.

Sometimes that belief is unsatisfying.


A novel lawsuit is going to trial today: 16 young residents of Montana are invoking a clause in the Montana constitution committing the state to "maintain and improve a clean and healthful environment in Montana for present and future generations". The suit claims that the state's energy policy, which encourages fossil-fuel production, is unconstitutional.

I'll be shocked if any Montana laws are thrown out, but the suit will raise local awareness of climate change and frame it in generational terms. Similar cases are pending in Hawaii, Florida, Utah, and Virginia.


I can't think of an easy way to check this claim, which is almost too good to check anyway: The LA Times article about newsroom layoffs at the LA Times is illustrated with a photo taken by one of the photographers they laid off.


DeSantis pledges to change the name of Fort Liberty back to Fort Bragg, because deciding not to honor the slavery-defending generals of the Confederacy is "political correctness run amok".

Mike Pence also promises to restore the name of Fort Bragg. What's up with that? Is the idea that the US Army should honor people who take up arms against the United States in defense of White supremacy?

and let's close with a public service

As the summer vacation season kicks off, countless articles will tell you where you should go and where to stop along the way. But Explored Planet tells you something just as important: where not to go. What famous places are either over-priced, over-crowded, full of chain franchises you could find at home, or not worth the effort it takes to get there?

Monday, June 5, 2023

Debt and Credit

It is amazing what you can accomplish if you do not care who gets the credit.

- President Harry Truman

This week's featured post is "Joe Biden is Good at Governing".

This week everybody was talking about the debt ceiling

Saturday, President Biden signed a bill resolving the debt ceiling crisis and pushing the next possible confrontation off to 2025, by which time the American people will have had a chance to weigh in. I discuss this in detail in the featured post.

and the Trump indictment watch

The grand jury considering the Mar-a-Lago documents case last met in early May, prompting speculation that Jack Smith had all the evidence he needed and was now writing an indictment. NBC News claims it's meeting again sometime this week, prompting speculation that Smith has an indictment for the grand jury to approve.

It's not clear whether this indictment would just be about the Mar-a-Lago documents, or also include the more complicated January 6 investigation.

and LGBTQ issues

The Sift usually doesn't take much notice of June as Pride Month, but this year seems different, because the whole concept is under increased right-wing attack. (Target, Bud Light, Kohl's, Starbucks, Lego, Adidas, and North Face are all facing pressure for stocking Pride merchandise or marketing to transfolk.)

I'm straight, cisgender, and -- come next March -- I will have been married to the same woman for 40 years. But from time to time I have attended Pride parades or seen drag shows. I've always found such events uplifting and life-affirming. I've never felt like anyone was telling me I should be gay or trans or anything else. The point is that we can all be what we are, and maybe even what we want to be.

I see LGBTQ Pride as a little like "Black Lives Matter"; it's a response to a negative. So often our society sends the message that Black lives don't matter, or that being anything other than heterosexual is shameful or sinful. Simply saying "I'm not ashamed of what I am" doesn't seem nearly strong enough, so I fully support people expressing pride in themselves.


Friday, a federal judge found that Tennessee's anti-drag-performance law, the Adult Entertainment Act, is unconstitutional.

The 70-page ruling makes dense reading, because most of it discusses technical issues of whether the plaintiff has standing to sue (i.e., must drag performers wait for the law to be enforced first), and what standard of legal scrutiny (strict or intermediate) applies.

But the judge's ruling hangs on a few points that aren't hard to grasp:

  • Targeting "male and female impersonators" focuses the law on suppressing a particular viewpoint, rather than the law's ostensible purpose of protecting children. If it's harmful for a child to view some sexually suggestive act, it shouldn't matter whether the actors are portraying characters of their own gender.
  • Banning drag performances anywhere that a child "could" be present is both vague and overbroad, because a child could sneak in just about anywhere. The law offers no "affirmative defenses", like "We carded everyone at the door" or "The parents approved."
  • The harmful-to-children standard is too broad, given how different five-year-olds are from 17-year-olds.
  • The debate in the legislature focused on drag performances, not on harm to children, suggesting that the legislature had the "impermissible purpose" of suppressing drag rather than protecting children.
  • The AEA uses text from previous laws, but significantly changes the context: The previous laws targeted businesses that host adult entertainment, while the AEA criminalizes performers. That raises the stakes on First Amendment issues.

Here's the hypothetical example I would have brought up had I been arguing the case: What if a woman does a double impersonation, and pretends to be a male performer in drag? Her drag persona would then match her birth-certificate gender, so her act should be legal under the AEA, even if the audience (and especially any children in the audience) can't tell the difference between her and a male drag performer.

I think a law is very suspect if I don't show my genitalia in a performance, but police have to know what kind of genitalia I have to say whether my act is legal.


People who are worried about drag queens harming children may be looking in the wrong direction. In Texas, a school superintendent was arrested for online solicitation of a minor. He was caught in a sting operation where police officers posed as children aged 13-15.

Meanwhile, a South Carolina youth pastor was arrested for videotaping girls in his church's bathroom.

and you also might be interested in ...

June is the final month of the Supreme Court term. As usually, the big cases are waiting until the end: affirmative action at universities, whether student debt relief is legal, what kind of racial gerrymandering is allowed, and when "religious freedom" trumps anti-discrimination laws, just to name a few.


I can't decide whether to take this graphic at face value. Maybe people really do have a lot fewer friends than they used to. But it's also possible that the definition of friend has gotten stricter over three decades. Suppose I run into someone regularly and have pleasant interactions. Is that a friend, or is more intimacy required? I wonder how my parents would have answered that question, or how many friends they would have claimed to have.

Something cultural makes me take the decline of friendship a little more seriously, though. I'm seeing more and more fantasy series on TV where, when you strip away the supernatural and pseudo-science trappings, the real fantasy is about having friends, in spite of how uncool or fundamentally unlikable you are. Stranger Things is about having friends. Wednesday is about having friends.


Another poll result I don't know how to interpret is the one where college students, especially conservatives, say they censor themselves on campus. Conservative politicians frequently quote such surveys to justify pushing universities to the right, as Ron DeSantis is doing in Florida.

But what does self-censorship mean in this context? If it means "I won't say that I oppose abortion" or "I won't express my doubts about affirmative action", that's concerning, because college students ought to be debating such issues and convincing each other via argument rather than shutting their fellow students up through peer pressure.

OTOH, if self-censorship means "I've stopped saying the N-word", well, that's the virtue known as tact. Mature adults learn to stifle the gratuitous insults that may pop into their minds.

One thing I hope all students are learning is what words other students take offense at. I was in high school before I discovered that Jews took offense at using Jew down to mean bargaining for a lower price. I had to censor myself until I lost the habit of saying it. I was out of college before I learned that gyp (cheating someone) is a slur on the Roma (i.e., Gypsies), or that welshing on a bet insults people from Wales.


The Atlantic writes a lengthy account of how Chris Licht tried to change CNN, and wound up with the debacle of Trump's recent townhall meeting. David Roberts boils Licht's mistake down to one paragraph.

CNN can't be what he wants it to be as long as Trump & the GOP are what they are. It simply doesn't work. You can't report "just the facts" AND have a better relationship with Trump & his base. The two are incommensurate! It simply doesn't work. The right is going to accuse CNN of being biased for the left unless & until it becomes Fox. That's how the right has worked for decades now. You can't report "just the facts" AND escape right-wing accusations of bias.

For reference, the Dominion lawsuit showed us how it works at Fox News. Here's one producer texting another:

We can’t make people think we’ve turned against Trump. Yet also call out the bullshit. You and I see through it. But we have to reassure some in the audience.

If CNN wants to serve that audience, it will have to make the same choice not to call out the "bullshit" the audience wants to believe.


A study just published in the PNAS journal says that police stops of Black drivers that escalate from minor traffic violations to searches, handcuffings, and arrests diverge from other stops in the first few seconds. If the officer's first statement is a command ("Keep your hands on the wheel.") rather than a question or an explanation ("Do you know how fast you were going?"), the encounter is much more likely to escalate, even if the driver is cooperative.

The extreme example here is George Floyd.

We analyzed the first 27 seconds of Floyd's encounter with police on that day. And we found that Floyd apologizes to the officers who stand outside his car window, Floyd requests the reason for the stop, he pleads, he explains, he follows orders, he expresses fear. Yet every response to Floyd is an order.

The study is based on police body-cam videos.

[The researchers] initially set out to look at patterns related to traffic stop escalation for white drivers too, but realized that it happened so infrequently for white drivers that there just weren't sufficient numbers to even include them in the analysis.


The WaPo ordered the same takeout from the same restaurant four times, but did it four ways: through DoorDash, UberEats, GrubHub, and the restaurant itself. It then figured out how much money went to the restaurant, the driver, and the apps.

I found this to be discouraging reading: IMO the apps take way too much of the money, and yet the app companies are all posting losses. Meal delivery looks like an everybody-loses phenomenon.

and let's close with something honest

June is wedding month, so you're going to hear a lot of the same songs you hear at every wedding reception. (Or not. One reception I attended started with "All in Love is Fair", which made me wonder what they were suggesting.) But what if you could change the lyrics to be more honest? The Holderness Family demonstrates.