Monday, July 25, 2022

No Ambiguity

In our hearing tonight, you saw an American President faced with a stark and unmistakable choice between right and wrong. There was no ambiguity. No nuance. Donald Trump made a purposeful choice to violate his oath of office, to ignore the ongoing violence against law enforcement, to threaten our constitutional order. There is no way to excuse that behavior. It was indefensible.

- Liz Cheney, 7-21-2022

This week's featured post is "Trump doesn't have a side of the 1-6 story".

This week everybody was talking about the final summer 1-6 committee hearing

https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=589953199165168&set=a.202597147900777

Thursday's prime-time hearing [video, transcript] focused on the three hours between when Trump told his supporters to march to the Capitol and when he asked them to go home.

In between, he sat in the Oval Office dining room watching the riot unfold on Fox News and doing nothing to stop it. He could have asked the rioters to go home sooner, and he could have mobilized federal resources to support the Capitol Police resisting the attack. Many of his staffers urged him to do one or the other, but he refused.

Instead, he tweeted more incitement to those who wanted to hang Vice President Pence, and called Republicans in Congress urging them to further delay the counting the electoral votes. It seems clear that his primary goal that day was to prevent Congress from certifying Biden's victory, and the riot was just one of his tools for achieving that purpose. He didn't stop the riot because he wanted it to succeed.

Some of the most striking evidence presented concerned Vice President Pence's safety. Audio and video of Pence's Secret Service detail trying to move him from his office in the Capitol to a more secure location showed just how tense the situation was.

In addition, an anonymous White House security official (whose voice was disguised), told about listening to the Secret Service radio chatter.

Members of the V.P. detail at this time were starting to fear for their own lives. There was a lot of yelling—a lot of very personal calls over the radio. It was very disturbing. I don’t like talking about it. There were calls to say goodbye to family members. For whatever reason on the ground, the V.P. detail thought that this was about to get very ugly.

The comic relief in the hearing was video of Josh Hawley pumping his fist to encourage the 1-6 mob, but then later running through the Capitol to get away from them. The clip got one of the few audible laughs we've heard in these hearings. His home-state Kansas City Star proclaimed Senator Hawley "a laughingstock" and quoted this tweet:

From now on, if political reporters ask Josh Hawley if he’s planning to run, he’s going to have to ask them to clarify.

Hawley has a book coming out next May: "Manhood: the Masculine Virtues America Needs". When I first heard that, I thought it was a joke. It's not, or at least not an intentional one.

https://claytoonz.com/2022/07/22/run-josh-run/

The mystery of the missing Secret Service text messages from January 6 is looking worse and worse. The Service is claiming they innocently deleted the messages as part of a system upgrade, but that's hard to credit. I upgraded computer this year, and I managed not to delete my files. The Secret Service, meanwhile, is an agency responsible for investigating cybercrimes. Basic data hygiene shouldn't be beyond them.

https://theweek.com/political-satire/1015349/the-secret-services-really-good-job

The Service is also connected to another 1-6 mystery: Why was Mike Pence so reluctant to get in the car when agents wanted to take him to a safer place?

Mr Pence then reportedly outright refused to get into the vehicle, saying his security detail would ignore his demand not to leave the building and would instead “take off” against his wishes.

“I’m not getting in the car, Tim,” Mr Pence replied. “I trust you, Tim, but you’re not driving the car. If I get in that vehicle, you guys are taking off. I’m not getting in the car.”

This is speculative to the point of being a conspiracy theory, but what if the two are connected? Maybe the agents' text messages say something about their plans for Pence.


Beaux of the Fifth Column doesn't expect the hearings to turn Trump supporters into liberals, but he does suggest the lesson they should learn from what has been presented: Trump conned them with his whole stolen-election grift, and Trump's people have been laughing at them this whole time. Now they need to look at their 2022 candidates, and sort out which ones were also fooled by Trump, and which ones were in on the con.

Steve Bannon was found guilty of two counts of contempt of Congress. He called no witnesses, and the jury deliberated for two-and-a-half hours.

I wonder what they talked about. "Should we hang around for lunch? Anybody know what they're feeding us?" They needed to answer two questions: Did Bannon receive a lawful subpoena? Did he defy it? The answers were clearly yes.

He'll be sentenced in October, possibly for as long as two years. He's planning to appeal. His only hope is a purely partisan intervention by the Supreme Court's Republican majority.

Peter Navarro has also been charged with contempt of Congress; his trial is due to start November 17. Mark Meadows and Dan Scavino have also been cited by Congress for contempt, but the Justice Department has not pressed charges.


The Murdoch Empire seems to have turned on Trump. This week both The Wall Street Journal and The New York Post spoke out against him.

and abortion

A leading Republican candidate for governor of Michigan is clear about her position:

Asked ... about a hypothetical situation in which a 14-year-old girl became pregnant as a result of sexual abuse by a family member, Dixon said, "Perfect example." She went on, "Because I know people who are the product. A life is a life for me. That's how it is. That is for me, that is my feeling." 

"A life is a life" doesn't seem to apply to the 14-year-old, whose life might be thrown considerably off-track.


The NYT has been staying on this theme: Life-of-the-mother exceptions to state abortion bans are not all they're made out to be. Yes, they allow abortions if a pregnant woman is in danger of immediate death. But they don't cover the situation where death is merely a probable consequence of carrying a fetus to term, or even of waiting to see how things develop.

Case in point: pregnant women with cancer.

[Rachel Brown] had always said she would never have an abortion. But the choices she faced were wrenching. If she had the chemotherapy that she needed to prevent the spread of her cancer, she could harm her baby. If she didn’t have it, the cancer could spread and kill her. She had two children, ages 2 and 11, who could lose their mother.

... Ms. Brown’s first visit was with a surgical oncologist who, she said, “made it clear that my life would be in danger if I kept my pregnancy because I wouldn’t be able to be treated until the second trimester.” He told her that if she waited for those months passed, her cancer could spread to distant organs and would become fatal.

This situation is exceptional, but not freakishly so. The article claims that about one in a thousand pregnant women gets diagnosed with cancer (often breast cancer). Given that millions of babies are born in the US each year, that means thousands of women face this decision. Or at least they did face it, before state governments began deciding for them that they must risk their lives.

Similar considerations apply to pregnant women prone to blood clots or at risk of stroke or heart attack. They may not be facing death at this particular moment, but waiting for a crisis might mean intervening too late to save them.

Some women, no doubt, want a child so badly that they would choose to accept such a risk. But that should be their decision, not the government's.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/20/cartoon-by-rob-rogers/

A political science professor at Indiana University calls out IU leadership for its timidity in defending Dr. Caitlin Bernard, the woman who became a target for Indiana's attorney general when she performed an abortion on the pregnant 10-year-old who came to her from Ohio, where the abortion was illegal. Bernard is an assistant professor at the IU School of Health.

President Whitten and Dean Hess especially ought to be ashamed of themselves for their cowardly silence. Indiana University is a public university, not an extension of the state’s Republican administration or the attorney general’s far-right, anti-abortion agenda. If it stands for anything, it is the freedom of its faculty and professional staff to do their jobs without being attacked for doing so.

and the pandemic

Numbers have definitely turned upwards in the last few weeks. For a long time deaths in the US had stayed in the 300s per day. Now they're averaging 444.

President Biden tested positive for Covid Friday. He seems to be doing fine, which is a credit to the effect of vaccination. President Trump, if you remember, got very seriously ill in the days before vaccines.

and fascists being as outrageous as possible

Before getting angry, consider that these folks are trying very hard to make people like us angry. So if you're in a bad mood already, I recommend skipping this section.

The quotes below are from the Turning Point USA's Student Action Summit in Tampa this weekend. Turning Point USA claims it's mission is "to identify, educate, train, and organize students to promote freedom", but it has basically become a Young Fascists organization. Recognizing the similarity (and possibly looking to recruit), local neo-Nazi groups showed up outside the conference. But TPUSA did at least find it necessary to officially denounce them. And I have to confess that the far right is so bizarre these days that it's hard to tell whether someone is attempting to parody them. (I mean, is the guy carrying a "DeSantis Country" flag next to the guy with a swastika flag really a DeSantis supporter? He could be, but who can say for sure?)

https://www.cltampa.com/tampa/photos-neo-nazis-gather-outside-turning-point-usa-summit-at-tampa-convention-center/Slideshow/13849084/13850127

Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz won the prize for provoking the most social-media backlash with this gem:

Why is it that the women with the least likelihood of getting pregnant are the ones most worried about having abortions? ... Nobody wants to impregnate you if you look like a thumb.

Because, of course, only women Gaetz finds attractive are entitled to have opinions or constitutional rights. (This quote is reminiscent of Trump defending himself against charges of sexual assault by claiming that his accusers were too ugly to assault, as if that ever stopped anybody.) Gaetz also went on an anti-Hunter-Biden rant, inspiring the crowd to chant "Lock him up!" Meanwhile, Gaetz himself is under investigation for sex trafficking and sex with a minor. Las Vegas should offer odds on whether Hunter or Matt sees the inside of a prison cell first.

Marjorie Taylor Greene labeled herself a "Christian nationalist", because that always turns out well, particularly for Jews and Muslims, and even the occasional liberal Christian. "I think that's what the Republican Party needs to be about," she said.

Rick Scott used the classic Nazi technique of accusing opponents of your own sins.

In their new socialist America, everyone will obey, and no one will be allowed to complain. ... The modern Left in America are the modern day version of book burners.

His state of Florida is where math books are banned from the schools for political reasons, and teachers are ordered to remove rainbow flags from their classrooms. The state's largest school district currently has no sexual education curriculum, because the board has rejected all the texts.

Ted Cruz informed the crowd "I'm Ted Cruz, and my pronoun is Kiss My Ass." I hope people start using that preferred pronoun to refer to Kiss My Ass. It's the respectful thing to do.

Trump Jr. gave such an unhinged (and possibly drug-fueled) speech that liberals didn't even bother to argue with whatever he was trying to say. Instead, Molly Jong-Fast asks "Is he OK?" I suspect the answer is no.

Donald Trump easily won the 2024 presidential straw poll with 79%, followed by Ron DeSantis with 19%. Mike Pence and other would-be contenders definitely need to worry about their lack of fascist appeal.

and you also might be interested in ...

https://jensorensen.com/2022/07/21/polarization-both-sidesism-cartoon/

Cities across Europe have been setting heat records. Large chunks of the US have been pretty hot too.


Somebody tried to stab Rep. Lee Zeldin, the Republican nominee for governor of New York. The guy has been arrested and charged. President Biden immediately denounced the attack. "Violence has absolutely no place in our society or our politics." I completely agree.

A note to the Republicans still making excuses for the January 6 rioters: See how easy that is? You can Just Say No to violence.


One thing the Speaker of the House can do without support in the Senate is force the other party to go on the record. This week Speaker Pelosi held votes on two of four bills that passed the House, but will probably die in the Senate:

  • The Women's Health Protection Act, which codifies into law abortion rights that were constitutional rights before the Dobbs decision. In particular, no state can restrict abortion prior to fetal viability. This passed the House on July 15 with no Republican votes.
  • The Ensuring Access to Abortion Act, which ensures that "no person acting under state law could prevent, restrict, or otherwise retaliate against a person traveling across state lines for lawful abortion services." This also passed on July 15, with three Republican votes and 205 votes against.
  • The Right to Contraception Act, which passed Thursday with eight Republican votes and 195 against. This codifies the right to use contraception, which is currently protected by the Supreme Court's Griswold decision. That precedent is shaky now because it rests on the same legal base as Roe v Wade.
  • The Respect for Marriage Act, which codifies the right to same-sex and interracial marriage. These rights also are currently backed by Supreme Court precedents that the current Court might overturn. This passed Tuesday with 157 Republicans voting against it.

Expect to hear about these votes again in the fall campaign. These are all bills with substantial popular support, but they offend a small-but-influential sliver of the Republican electorate. Many Republicans would like to soft-pedal their position on such issues, but Pelosi forced them to vote Yes or No.

and let's close with something squirrelly

Every photographer needs a theme. Geert Weggen's theme is squirrels. I'm not sure how much he stages, how much he photoshops, and how much he captures in the wild, but the images are both amusing and amazing.

https://geertweggen.com/

Monday, July 18, 2022

To Bind or Protect?

Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect. There is nothing more or else to it, and there never has been, in any place or time.

- Frank Wilhoit

This week's featured post is "No Victims Allowed".

This week everybody was talking about January 6

https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=598169388321160&set=pb.100043843133639.-2207520000..

The public hearings will return to prime time on Thursday, with a "minute by minute" recreation of what Trump was doing (and not doing) while the Capitol was under attack.

Last Tuesday's hearing [video transcript] centered on the decision to call a mob to Washington, and who some of the key organizers were. Vox lists the key takeaways from the hearing.

I had not previously made the connection between the "unhinged" White House meeting of December 18 -- when Rudy, Sid Powell, Flynn and "the Overstock guy" urged Trump to have the military seize voting machines -- and Trump's "will be wild" announcement of the January 6 demonstration that he tweeted only hours later. In context, it looks like Cipollone et al convinced him that martial-law tactics wouldn't work, so he moved on to the riot plan.

The other detail that struck me: Even though the call to march to the Capitol was only added to Trump's speech at the last minute, lots of people seemed to know it would be there.

As one organizer texted a conservative journalist on January 5, “Trump is supposed to order us to capitol at the end of his speech, but we will see.” Another organizer texted that the plans had been kept under wraps to keep it a surprise: “It can also not get out about the march because I will be in trouble with the national park service and all the agencies but POTUS is going to just call for it ‘unexpectedly.’”

That starts to sound like conspiracy.


Cassidy Hutchinson's testimony continues to pick up corroboration. None of the TrumpWorld sources who supposedly were going to dispute her account have gone on the record. Meanwhile,

a Metropolitan Police Department officer corroborated details of Hutchinson's account and recounted what was seen to committee investigators.

Rep. Raskin:

[Pat] Cipollone has corroborated almost everything that we’ve learned from the prior hearings. I certainly did not hear him contradict Cassidy Hutchinson. … He had the opportunity to say whatever he wanted to say, so I didn’t see any contradiction there.

The Committee continues to warn Trump about witness tampering. It's a simple crime that is not that hard to prove -- kind of like Al Capone's tax evasion.

Part of putting together an account of Trump's behavior during the 1-6 riot involves looking at Secret Service text messages. But it turns out that some texts were deleted as part of a "device-replacement program". We'll see if that's really as suspicious as it sounds. The committee says it will try to "reconstruct" the deleted messages.

The most amusing take on the Secret-Service-text-deletion story is that it vindicates Major Biden, who had to leave the White House because he kept biting agents. Maybe he had sniffed out that some of them weren't good boys.

https://news.knowyourmeme.com/news/major-biden-vindicated-secret-service-agents-deleted-january-6th-texts-so-disgraced-presidential-dog-may-have-had-reason-to-bite-them

Steve Bannon's trial starts today. He tried to delay or derail it every possible way, but it's happening. Also, the Trump-appointed judge is not allowing the spurious defenses that Bannon pledged would turn the trial into a "misdemeanor from Hell". “What’s the point in going to trial here if there are no defenses?” his lawyer asked.


Other investigations also seem to be picking up steam. Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis has sent "target letters" to a number of Georgia Republians

informing them they could be indicted for their role in a scheme to appoint alternate electors pledged to the former president despite Joe Biden’s victory in the state

Target letters are typically used to invite lower-level members of a conspiracy to come in and make a deal to testify against higher-level conspirators.

Willis has already subpoenaed Senator Lindsey Graham and Rudy Giuliani.

DoJ reportedly is also looking at the fake electors, possibly because it would be easy to make a case: People signed their names to false documents and sent them to the National Archives.

and more Manchin sabotage

Early on, I was inclined to give Joe Manchin the benefit of the doubt: He represents a conservative state, and is entitled to vote his worldview just like any other senator. If Biden's Build Back Better plan doesn't make sense to him, he shouldn't vote for it.

And in a 50-50 Senate, each Democrat is in a position to hold out for whatever deal they want. That's how politics is, and if people don't like it they should elect a few more liberal Democratic senators to take Manchin's veto away.

What's been driving me nuts, though, is that Manchin doesn't seem to be negotiating in good faith. Negotiations that have no reason to take more than a few weeks instead stretch into many months, and then at the end there's no deal. If there was nothing he could agree to, why didn't he just say so early on?

This week the climate portion of Build Back Better fell apart.

Sen. Joe Manchin appears to have torpedoed a cornerstone of President Joe Biden's economic agenda, telling Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer Thursday evening that he won't support moving forward on proposed tax hikes on wealthy Americans and corporations that would pay for a package of climate change and energy policies, at least not right away, this according to two aides familiar with the matter.

Manchin cites fears about inflation, but since the spending is balanced against taxes, and won't drive up the deficit, it's not clear why the bill should be inflationary.

Meanwhile, new climate anomalies keep popping up. Europe is seeing wildfires in France and Spain, and England is set to break 40 degrees Centigrade (104 Fahrenheit) for the first time ever.

and abortion

The featured post discusses the pregnant Ohio 10-year-old who had to leave the state for an abortion.

I don't think this story is a one-timer. Abortion is fundamentally a more complicated decision than conservatives picture, and their simplistic bans are going to lead to a long series of I-didn't-mean-that cases.


The Biden administration is insisting that hospitals have to provide abortions in emergency situations, even if state law bans them.

[HHS Secretary Xavier] Becerra said the Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act pre-empts state laws that restrict abortion access in emergency situations. ... Although most of the state abortion bans make exceptions for when the woman’s life is in danger, U.S. health officials worry that wary doctors could wait too long to treat ectopic pregnancies and complications from miscarriages while awaiting legal guidance.

Texas, meanwhile, appears to be holding out for a hospital's right to let a woman die.

Texas on Thursday asked a federal court to block the Biden administration’s requirement that physicians and hospitals provide abortions in medical emergencies.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, in a lawsuit filed in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas, argued that federal law does not confer a right to an abortion.


Dov Fox is a law professor and the director of University of San Diego's Center for Health Law Policy and Bioethics. In a NYT column, he raises the issue of doctors who perform illegal abortions for reasons of conscience.

The American legal regime that governs medical conscience is broken. While conscientious providers find virtually no refuge in the conscience clauses that are codified in almost every state, refusers are protected almost categorically. And just about all of these conscience laws are reserved for denials of care.

It's not hard to imagine what a conscience-based abortion would look like: Even if the state has a life-of-the-mother exception in its abortion ban, the doctor may draw that line in a different place than the legislature does. A doctor said this to ABC News:

When I see patients, for instance, who have a major cardiac problem, a lot of the time they have a risk of a major cardiac event of up to 15% to 25%, even up to 50%. At the moment they're fine. But as they get further into pregnancy, that's going to put their life more and more at risk.

So do I have to wait until they're on death's doorstep, or can I intervene at that point to prevent more harm and more damage to them?


The NYT is covering the Kansas referendum on abortion. A Yes vote amends the state constitution to allow the legislature to restrict or ban abortion. The Republican legislature has scheduled the vote to coincide with the August 2 primary election, which has a lower turnout than a November election. The amendment is also confusingly worded. It doesn't sound like what they'd do if they thought the electorate was solidly behind them.

The whole process smacks not so much of returning power to the people as of showing contempt for them and for the democratic process, a trend that is becoming standard operating procedure throughout much of the G.O.P.

and you also might be interested in ...

Remember what a to-do it was last week, when protesters came to a restaurant Justice Kavanaugh was eating at, but there was no interaction, no one was harmed, and nothing was damaged?

A source told Politico that Kavanaugh did not actually see or hear the protestors in question during his dinner at Morton's, though he did reportedly leave the restaurant before dessert.

What? No dessert? Is this Nazi Germany or something?

My comment was:

Any time liberal protesters inconvenience a conservative official, it’s going to get national attention. (Generally, conservative protesters have to shoot somebody to get similar coverage.)

Well, Saturday an armed man was arrested outside Rep. Pramila Jayapal's home in Seattle. He was armed, and was yelling that she should "go back to India" because he was going to kill her. The story just didn't seem to take off like the Kavanaugh story did, even though the threat seems far more serious.

Maybe if he'd actually shot her, that would get Kavanaugh-level attention.


The New Yorker has an enlightening article about LGBT children's books. Often the issues that children bring up in a book discussion are not the ones that adults anticipate. The article also makes a distinction between "didactic" queer stories (which are suppose to teach children that difference is OK) and "just-are" queer stories (in which gay or trans people are just characters in a story about something else).

Ron DeSantis types assume that the presence of LGBTQ characters makes a story "sexual", when kids don't read that into the text at all.


Several prominent Republicans -- former senators, former judges, etc. -- have put out a report debunking the various stolen-election theories Trump supporters have put forward. It's called Lost, Not Stolen, and it goes through the claims state by state.

If you've been following this stuff closely, you won't find anything new. I already knew, for example, that when the Cyber Ninjas were hired by Arizona's Republican legislature to "audit" the state's 2020 election results, Biden's lead actually grew in their recount. And that when a committee in Michigan's Republican state senate investigated their state's election, they found "no evidence presented at this time to prove either significant acts of fraud or that an organized, wide-scale effort to commit fraudulent activity was perpetrated in order to subvert the will of Michigan voters".

But the report is significant for two reasons

  • This isn't Democrats saying Biden won and Trump lost, it's Republicans.
  • The report is encyclopedic, so it addresses the whattabout-this/whattabout-that tactic of Trumpists, where refuting one conspiracy theory just causes them to raise another.

A committee of the Texas House has put out its report on the Uvalde school shooting. The Texas Tribune summarizes:

No one was able to stop the gunman from carrying out the deadliest school shooting in Texas history, in part because of “systemic failures and egregious poor decision making” by nearly everyone involved who was in a position of power

Police from various jurisdictions, from the school district to the state to the Border Patrol, descended on Uvalde, but nobody took charge of the 376 officers.

The report speculates that the shooter had never fired a gun until the day of the massacre.

and let's close with something cosmic

I like to close with something you haven't seen before, and often the closing is some set of spectacular photos. This week, though, the most spectacular photos (maybe ever) were headline news: The first returns from the James Webb Space Telescope.

Monday, July 11, 2022

Land of the Free

Even the most stalwart conservative who dares not venture out in the street at night and hesitates on occasion to drink the water or breathe the air must now wonder if keeping public services at a minimum is really a practical formula for expanding his personal liberty.

- John Kenneth Galbraith (1969)

This week's featured post is "The Right has an immature notion of Freedom".

This week everybody was talking about gun violence

https://claytoonz.com/2022/07/08/made-possible-by-the-gop/

I discuss the symbolic meaning of Highland Park (home of Ferris Bueller and Joel Goodsen) in the featured post. But I wanted to keep that post short, so I've got more to say here about guns.

Friday, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated. Still an influential politician after his retirement, Abe was giving a campaign speech for his party's candidates when someone killed him with the homemade gun shown below. The gun would only allow two shots, so no one else was injured.

NRA shills are using Abe's assassination, together with a recent shooting at a mall in Denmark, to argue that gun restrictions don't work. "See," they say, "even countries with serious gun control can't stop shootings."

This kind of thinking is similar to the claims that Covid vaccines and masks don't work, because vaccinated people can still get sick, even if they wear masks. It exemplifies the conservative tendency to think in absolutes while ignoring numbers. (Scientific American analyzed statistics from March and deduced that vaccinated-and-boosted Americans were 17 times less likely to die of Covid than their unvaccinated countrymen. That's not a guarantee, but I see it as an advantage well worth the inconvenience.)

It's true that Japan and Denmark have both controlled guns much more tightly than the US, and so have fewer civilian guns. The US has 120 guns per 100 residents, Denmark 9.9, and Japan 0.3. Even those numbers don't capture the full difference, since millions of American guns are powerful semi-automatics like AR-15 rifles or Glock handguns.

As a result, gun violence in both countries is rare and incidents are less deadly than in the US. In 2017, (the most recent year Wikipedia had statistics for) the US had 12.21 gun deaths per 100K residents per year, 4.46 of which were murders. In 2015, Denmark had 0.91 gun deaths and .18 gun murders per 100K residents. Japan in 2015 had 0.02 gun deaths and no gun murders. According to the NYT, Japan has had only 14 gun-related deaths since 2017, fewer than the number of Americans who died in the Uvalde shooting alone.

The Danish mall shooter apparently used a hunting rifle that was not semi-automatic and was purchased illegally. He managed to kill three people before being subdued. Abe's assassin used a homemade zip gun that gave him only two shots.

https://www.spieltimes.com/news/homemade-gun-killed-former-japanese-prime-minister-shinzo-abe/

The Abe shooting could be a dictionary example of an exception that proves the rule. Months of planning and preparation allowed his shooter to get those two shots off. Contrast the Abe attack with the Gabby Giffords assassination attempt in Tucson in 2011, when a shooter with a legally purchased semi-automatic handgun got off dozens of shots, killing six and wounding 13 others.

The NYT sums up:

[A]n American-style shooter can, virtually on a whim, readily arm themselves with the firepower to kill large numbers of people before police can respond, targeting victims even hundreds of yards away.

But a Japanese shooter may require long stretches of dangerous preparation to build their weapon. They then must secret it to within feet of their victim and squeeze off what may be their only shot before they become effectively defenseless, and a bystander overpowers them.

It is also worth noting that, contrary to NRA propaganda, a disarmed citizenry has not made either Denmark or Japan vulnerable to tyranny. In 2021 the US had a democracy index of 7.85, noticeably lower than Denmark's 9.09 and Japan's 8.15. In neither country has a leader defeated at the polls tried to hang onto power by force, as Donald Trump recently did.

Quite the opposite of promoting democracy, America's loose gun culture has made our politicians more distant and less approachable. Our presidents talk to us from behind shields and after we've been searched, because it's not safe to do anything else.

Our gun culture is also related to the trigger-happy nature of our police. Police in America are now killing more than 1000 people per year. That's a per capita rate a bit higher than countries we think of as repressive, like Pakistan and Egypt. By contrast, Denmark had no police killings in 2019, and Japan had two in 2018, the most recent years I could find statistics for.

Living with the risk of being killed by the police doesn't sound like freedom to me. But it's necessary, police tell us, because every suspect they meet might be armed and ready to shoot them.

and January 6

The next hearing is tomorrow at 1 p.m. It's supposed to be focused on the role of extremist groups like the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers. Rep. Jamie Raskin said:

One of the things that people are going to learn is the fundamental importance of a meeting that took place in the White House [on Dec. 18, 2020].

That was the meeting when "Team Crazy" -- Rudy Giuliani, Sidney Powell, Michael Flynn -- urged Trump to take radical actions like seizing voting machines. The next day, Trump sent out his tweet inviting his followers to a protest rally in DC on January 6, promising it would "be wild".

We're also likely to see video from Pat Cipollone's testimony Friday. Cipollone was Trump's White House Counsel and figured in several of the stories told by Cassidy Hutchinson. (She described his attempts to put the brakes on before too many laws got broken.) Rep. Adam Kinzinger has said Cipollone's testimony didn't contradict what the committee had previously heard. I assume that means that when they asked him about the actions and statements Cassidy Hutchinson attributed to him, he didn't say no.


We now know the reason Cassidy Hutchinson's testimony was rushed into an "emergency" session: The Committee was afraid of TrumpWorld's escalating witness tampering.


This isn't a January 6 story exactly, but it's part of the whole abuse-of-power theme. The IRS randomly selects a handful of taxpayers, about 1 in 30,000 for extreme audits. By some bizarre "coincidence", both Jim Comey and Andy McCabe -- FBI directors Trump blamed for the Russia investigation -- got "randomly" selected. The Treasury Department inspector general will investigate whether the White House used inappropriate influence.

As so often happens, this Trump scandal appears to be a real version of a fake scandal Republicans tried to pin on Obama.


The Atlantic's Barton Gellman looks into "What Happened to Michael Flynn?"

and Boris Johnson

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/opinion/article263260458.html

After a series of scandals (that look fairly tame by Trump standards) caused members of his Conservative Party to quit his government, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced his resignation on Thursday.

It's only sort of a resignation, though, because he will continue as "interim" prime minister until the Party can settle on a new leader, which might not happen for months.


Jonathan Pie is a fictional news commentator created by comedian Tom Walker. His "Bye-bye Boris" rant is epic. From an American point of view, it's hard not to notice how much of Pie's characterization of Johnson and the Tories also applies to Donald Trump and the Republicans who still bow down to him.

Lies on top of lies on top of lies. He lies and then gets people to lie on his behalf and then lies about the lying. ... who is so blatant about his dishonesty that when accused of lying to Parliament, he simply tries to change the rules to make it OK to lie to Parliament. ...

The devastating cries over the last few days from the Tory Party of "Enough is enough" and "one step too far" are coming from the same people who have sat and watched him take a flame-thrower to their party and our constitution for three fucking years. ... All of them, talking about trust and integrity. If you cared so much about trust and integrity, then why the fuck did you put Boris Johnson in #10 in the first place?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKrLBPmRsrM

and responses to Roe

So many red states are restricting or banning abortion that it's hard to keep up. NBC has a state-by-state rundown as of Friday. CNN covers the legal challenges to those laws. In some states, the state constitution may protect reproductive rights even if the federal constitution no longer does.

The first real test of abortion's new electoral significance will come in a few weeks in Kansas. On August 2, Kansans will vote on a constitutional amendment that will not outlaw abortion itself, but will give the legislature the power to do so -- power it will almost certainly use.

  • YES, which supports amending the Kansas constitution to state, that nothing in the state constitution creates a right to abortion or requires government funding for abortion and that the state legislature has the authority to pass laws regarding abortion, or
  • NO, which opposes amending the Kansas constitution, thereby maintaining the legal precedent established in Hodes & Nauser v. Schmidt, that there is a right to abortions in the Kansas Bill of Rights.

Interestingly, abortion has given blue states a way to appeal to business: Come here and you won't have trouble recruiting women to work for you.


It's hard to know what to make of President Biden's response to the Dobbs decision overturning Roe. He waited three days to comment, but said more-or-less the right thing when he did, denouncing "the outrageous behavior of the Supreme Court" and calling on Congress to put aside the filibuster and protect reproductive rights by statute.

He issued an executive order on Friday, but it doesn't have a lot of teeth. It's mostly about instructing HHS and DoJ to identify actions the government can take, rather than telling them to do anything. Maybe those departments will come back in two weeks with a list of meaningful actions. Or maybe not. One way of the other, it raises the question: We all saw this coming after Alito's draft leaked in May. Why wasn't there a contingency plan in place?

Now quite possibly Biden has concluded that anything he can do without Congress will be set aside by the Supreme Court anyway, and he may be right. But my personal opinion is that he should force the Court's theocrat majority to show its hand. Trump understood the importance of putting up a fight, even if you were going to lose; Biden doesn't seem to.


Any time liberal protesters inconvenience a conservative official, it's going to get national attention. (Generally, conservative protesters have to shoot somebody to get similar coverage.)

Wednesday night, reproductive-rights protesters learned that Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh was eating at Morton's Steakhouse in downtown DC. They showed up in front of the restaurant and appear not to have assaulted anybody or broken anything. Kavanaugh avoided them by slipping out the back. Sources differ about whether he finished his meal first.

Anyway, this is now an outrage in right-wing media, with Fox News' Steve Doocy hilariously denouncing the protesters for violating Kavanaugh's "privacy". Such moments make me miss Jen Psaki, who I'm sure would have had the perfect response.

Pete Buttigieg, though, did pretty well with the question yesterday on Fox News.

Look, when public officials go into public life, we should expect two things. One, that you should always be free from violence, harassment, and intimidation. And two, you’re never going to be free from criticism or peaceful protest, people exercising their First Amendment rights.

Implicit in that answer is that Supreme Court justices need to develop the same kind of thick skin politicians have, now that they've decided to start running the country.


It was going to happen: Chaz Stevens is asking a Florida high school that he attended if he can lead a Satanist prayer at the 50-yard-line at one of its football games. "There's been no word back from them on that," Stevens said.


Jonathan Rauch argues for a federal abortion compromise based on the Defense of Marriage Act:

Congress could take important steps to localize the issue. It could make abortion bans unenforceable across state lines, for example, which would please pro-choicers. It could clarify that states have the power to restrict abortion within their boundaries, which would please pro-lifers. Such measures allowing states to go their separate ways would provide time and political space for a durable policy consensus to form.

Rauch anticipates that consensus eventually mirroring Roe, just as the debate that raged during the DOMA years eventually settled on legal same-sex marriage. (According to Wikipedia, Mississippi and Arkansas are the only states where a majority opposes same-sex marriage, and those margins are narrow. Support is over 80% in Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Washington.)

Here's why I don't buy that comparison: The main thing same-sex marriage had going against it in the 1990s was that most people had never seen one. That made the practice easy to demonize in the most outlandish terms: In 2004, as the first American same-sex marriages were being performed in Massachusetts, religious-Right leader James Dobson claimed they would cause the American family to crumble, "presaging the fall of Western civilization itself".

Lots of people really believed that kind of nonsense. But those arguments collapsed as soon as same-sex marriages became real events rather than apocalyptic fantasies. It was hard for theocrats to claim that civilization would fall in New York, after it had obviously not fallen in Massachusetts. Once same-sex marriage became that woman at the office, or that gay couple down the street, the panic was hard to sustain.

Legal abortions, on the other hand, have already been happening for 50 years. I fail to see why a DOMA-like era will usher in a new consensus.

and the pandemic

It's hard to know what to make of the numbers: deaths remain in the 300-350-per-day range they've been in for weeks, hospitalizations and positivity rates are rising, and nobody knows what the case numbers mean any more, now that so many people with minor cases never tell the medical system they've tested positive at home.

Meanwhile, the BA-5 omicron subvariant has become the dominant strain of Covid in the US. It circumvents immunity produced by both vaccinations and infections by previous strains.

and you also might be interested in ...

The June jobs report came out and was surprisingly good.

The unemployment rate held steady at 3.6%, as analysts expected, while the alternative U6 measure of unemployment, which includes discouraged and some part-time workers, fell sharply to 6.7% — an all-time low that suggests the labor market remains exceptionally tight.

That alternate measure is known to economists as U6. The number you usually hear is U3.


More and more Democrats are discussing whether Biden should run for reelection -- and mostly saying "no". Personally, I think Biden has been dealt a difficult hand and does not get nearly enough credit for cleaning up Trump's mess. But I also think he shouldn't run. I believe his heart is in the right place, but that he's not an effective spokesman for Democratic ideals.

I think alternative candidates should start declaring, without waiting for Biden to decide what he's doing.

The situation reminds me of one early in Lyndon Johnson's career. The congressman from his district died, and his widow was dithering about whether she would run. If she ran, she would be the obvious favorite.

Some mentor figure, I forget who, told LBJ not to wait for her decision. He should announce his own candidacy, and make it clear that the campaign would be a real battle rather than a coronation. If he did that, the widow probably wouldn't run. And that's how it worked out.

Obviously, people inside the administration like Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg can't do that without appearing disloyal. But there's no reason why Democrats in Congress or in governorships shouldn't try it.


The tables have turned: Now Elon Musk wants out of his agreement to buy Twitter, but Twitter's board is trying to hold him to it.

Musk's problem is that he overbid, and the market has turned against him. He offered $54.20 per share for the Twitter shares he doesn't already own, but Friday's closing price was $36.81. He needs to either sell or borrow against his Tesla stock to finance the purchase, but that share price also has dropped: from $985 per share to $752.


An unsuccessful Republican candidate in Georgia's recent gubernatorial primary made an issue of the Georgia Guidestone monument, calling it "satanic" and promising to have it torn down. Wednesday it was bombed, reminding me at least of when the Taliban blew up the Bamiyan Buddha statues.


A new Arizona law makes it illegal to film police encounters within eight feet unless you're the one being questioned.


GOP Senate candidate and ex-football-star Herschell Walker hasn't just been lying to the public about his three secret children (that we know of). He's been lying to his campaign staff. Quoting an anonymous source, The Daily Beast reported:

He spouts falsehoods “like he’s breathing,” this adviser said—so much so that his own campaign stopped believing him long ago.

“He’s lied so much that we don’t know what’s true,” the person said, adding that aides have “zero” trust in the candidate. Three people interviewed for this article independently called him a “pathological liar.”

The Walker campaign declined comment. But hours after this story published, [Scott] Paradise—the campaign manager—issued a statement broadly criticizing, but not denying, the story.


A small town in New Hampshire got a lesson in what happens when you don't show up to vote. Libertarians took over the town meeting and cut the school budget in half.


I know I've talked about this before, but librarians are under fire from the Right.

and let's close with something cultural

An article in Friday's NYT combines high-tech, cloak-and-dagger tactics, and issues of cultural appropriation: The British Museum displays the Elgin Marbles, statuary that was originally in the Parthenon, but was bought from the Turks by a British ambassador (Thomas Bruce, earl of Elgin) in the early 1800s. Greece holds that the Ottoman Empire was an invading power, and had no right to sell the statues; it wants them back.

Repatriating them would require an act of Parliament, and the British Museum doesn't want to give them back, for a variety of reasons, which I find unconvincing. For one: The marbles have been in England so long that they have put down cultural roots there as well. Keats wrote a poem about them, and Rodin was inspired by seeing them in the British Museum. But if you make that case, you also have to acknowledge another part of that cultural heritage: Byron's characterization of Elgin as a "filthy jackal" in "The Curse of Minerva".

For Elgin’s fame thus grateful Pallas pleads,  
Below, his name—above, behold his deeds!     
Be ever hailed with equal honour here     
The Gothic monarch and the Pictish peer:  
arms gave the first his right, the last had none,  
But basely stole what less barbarians won.     
So when the lion quits his fell repast,     
Next prowls the wolf, the filthy jackal last

Byron envisioned an angry Athena withdrawing wisdom from Britain, resulting in the loss of both its empire and its industry -- which has pretty much come to pass.

Enter high tech. Roger Michel, executive director of the Institute of Digital Archaeology, suggests a possible solution: Do detailed 3-D scans, and have his robot sculptors make near-perfect copies. Send the Marbles to the Acropolis Museum in Athens, and let the British Museum display the copies. “When two people both want the same cake, baking a second, identical cake is one obvious solution.”

This scenario opens up philosophical issues about the meaning of "identical". (What happens to the Louvre if robot reproduction eventually allows anybody to own a brushstroke-by-brushstroke Mona Lisa copy that only a laboratory can distinguish from the original?) And since Michel's plan involves repatriating the originals, the British Museum isn't cooperating. That's where the cloak-and-dagger comes in.

In March, after the museum refused a formal request to scan the pieces, Mr. Michel and Alexy Karenowska, the technical director of the Institute, showed up in the Duveen Gallery of the British Museum as visitors and resorted to guerrilla tactics. While security staff looked on, the two used standard iPhones and iPads, as many of the latest models are equipped with Lidar sensors and photogrammetry software, to create 3-D digital images.

Then the robots got to work. Two samples will be displayed somewhere in London by the end of the month. Next, Michel plans to produce two more duplicates, which will (in some ways) be more authentic than the originals.

Later this summer, Mr. Michel plans to have the robot fabricate two more copies and touch them up to show how the originals would have looked, with any absent pieces restored and damage repaired.

But wait, there are more issues: If the Marbles aren't Michel's, and aren't even the British Museum's, what right does he have to make these copies?

The Greek government’s apparent reluctance to weigh in troubles Bernard Means, director of the Virtual Creation Lab at Virginia Commonwealth University. Dr. Means said he would only have attempted such a project with the consultation and full support of Greece. “Otherwise,” he said, “the effort is suggestive of that colonial mind-set, where those who appropriated objects without the informed consent of the colonizers feel they have the right to do with the objects as they please — often in the guise of science, and even if well-intentioned.”

Monday, July 4, 2022

Exceptions

Some years ago, I remarked that “[w]e’re all textualists now.” ... It seems I was wrong. The current Court is textualist only when being so suits it. When that method would frustrate broader goals, special canons like the “major questions doctrine” magically appear as get-out-of-text-free cards.

- Justice Elena Kagan
dissenting opinion in West Virginia v EPA

This week's featured post was "Inside the White House on 1-6".

It's traditional on the 4th of July to say something patriotic and upbeat about America. But I don't have it in me this year. As historian Michael Beschloss put it on MSNBC this week:

We're living through a time where I can't predict to you whether we'll be living in a democracy five years from now or not. I hope we are.

https://claytoonz.files.wordpress.com/2022/07/cjonesrgb07042022.jpg?w=512
https://claytoonz.com/2022/07/02/independence-day-2022/

This week everybody was talking about Cassidy Hutchinson

I discuss her testimony to the 1-6 Committee in the featured post. But here I'll mention a couple of other things about Tuesday's hearing.

One of the more amazing moments was video of Michael Flynn repeatedly invoking the Fifth Amendment (against self-incrimination) to avoid answering what ought to be softball questions, like "Do you believe in the peaceful transition of power in the United States of America?" WTF, General Flynn?


The closed captioning on at least one stream of the hearing provided a little comic relief: Somebody forgot to tell the automated speech-to-text app about White House Counsel Pat Cipollone, so it struggled whenever anyone said his name. My favorite of its many attempts was "passive bologna". I think Pat has a new nickname.

and new Supreme Court decisions

https://jensorensen.com/2022/06/29/supreme-court-overturns-roe-theocracy-cartoon/

Last week I focused on three major decisions: overturning Roe, telling Maine it had to support religious schools (in certain circumstances), and tossing out New York's gun law. Two more important decisions have happened since then: supporting a public-school football coach's right to lead public prayers on the 50-yard line, and blocking the EPA from pushing utilities to shift away from coal-fired power plants.

Both rulings were typical of this term: their direct effects were less significant than the principles they laid down, and how those principles might be used in future decisions. (Even the Roe reversal, significant as that is on its own, presages a still broader rollback of rights.)

Next term could be even worse: The Court has accepted a case that tests the right of state legislatures to handle federal elections however they want, independent of any previous laws or the state constitution that brought the legislature into existence. Some legislatures in swing states (Wisconsin, for example) are so gerrymandered that the voters have no real say any more. If this case goes wrong, those legislatures could deliver their states' electoral votes as well, disenfranchising voters in presidential elections.


It's hard to know what to make of the praying-coach decision, Kennedy v. Bremerton School District, because Neil Gorsuch's majority opinion so badly misstates the facts of the case. Gorsuch says Coach Kennedy “offered his prayers quietly while his students were otherwise occupied.” If that were true, Kennedy would never have lost his job and there would be no case to decide. But in reality, the coach's "quiet, personal prayer" looked like this:

Bremerton, Washington is not far from Seattle, and a Seattle Times columnist tells the real story, going back to a 2015 Times article.

It was an account of a news conference Kennedy gave before the team’s big homecoming game against Centralia. “Football coach vows to pray” was the print headline.

It describes — in Kennedy’s own words — how he was inspired to start holding midfield prayers with students after he saw an evangelical Christian movie called “Facing the Giants,” in which a losing team finds God and goes on to win the state championship.

Kennedy “has held his postgame ritual at midfield after each game for a motivational talk and prayer ever since,” the story recounted. By doing so, Kennedy said he is “helping these kids be better people.”

So, the coach's intention was never the personal "free exercise" of religion the First Amendment protects. He was abusing his publicly-financed position in order to influence his students to participate in a religious ritual, precisely the "establishment of religion" the First Amendment bans. This was not an obscure point that the lawyers overlooked -- it was why the appeals court ruled against Kennedy.

Since the decision, I've seen lots of people on social media say that Muslims, Pagans, and Satanists should start leading students in prayer, now that the Court has said it's OK. But that's not going to work, because Muslims, Pagans, and Satanists won't be able to find a Supreme Court justice willing to lie for them the way Gorsuch lied for Kennedy.

Dating myself a little, I'm recalling the cereal commercials that always ended "Silly rabbit, Trix are for kids." Similarly, "religious liberty" is for Christians, as Muslims, Pagans, and Satanists will discover if they try to imitate Coach Kennedy.


The decision in West Virginia v EPA has no immediate consequence: In 2015, Obama's EPA put forward a plan that would force utilities to lower carbon emissions by shifting from high-carbon generation (like coal-fired plants) to low-carbon generation (like renewables, nuclear, or from coal to natural gas). Red states sued to block the plan, the Supreme Court put a temporary stay on it, and then the Trump administration reversed it. In the meantime, the market forced the same shift the Obama administration had wanted to mandate.

So why is this a case? Well, the Biden White House is considering an updated version of the plan, which the Court is trying to scuttle preemptively.

More importantly, though, Chief Justice Roberts used this occasion to announce a newly invented legal principle: the major questions doctrine:

In certain extraordinary cases ... [a regulating] agency must point to “clear congressional authorization” for the power it claims.

This is a relative of the "nondelegation doctrine" of the infamous Lochner Court, which Neil Gorsuch has been trying to revive since he came to the Supreme Court. (Gorsuch's concurrence makes the connection more explicit.)

Justice Kagan's dissent describes the situation in more detail: In the Clean Air Act, Congress understood that new environmental dangers would appear, and new regulatory tactics would become necessary. So it wrote a special section into the law, section 111, to give the EPA authority to handle such situations. This is the authority the EPA was using when it issued the Clean Power Plan.

The major questions doctrine says that authorization is not clear enough. Kagan writes:

The majority’s decision rests on one claim alone: that generation shifting is just too new and too big a deal for Congress to have authorized it in Section 111’s general terms. But that is wrong. A key reason Congress makes broad delegations like Section 111 is so an agency can respond, appropriately and commensurately, to new and big problems. Congress knows what it doesn’t and can’t know when it drafts a statute; and Congress therefore gives an expert agency the power to address issues—even significant ones—as and when they arise. That is what Congress did in enacting Section 111. The majority today overrides that legislative choice. In so doing, it deprives EPA of the power needed—and the power granted—to curb the emission of greenhouse gases.

Where in the Constitution does either "major questions" or "non-delegation" reside? Well, nowhere exactly. It's supposedly implicit in the separation of powers. Why either doctrine is more obvious than the right to privacy is lost on me.

What these doctrines are is a major power grab by the conservative court. No criteria defines what makes a law's delegation of power too "unclear" or an agency's regulation too "major" to be invalid under these doctrines. So basically it's open season on regulations, and the Court can invalidate whichever ones it doesn't like.


One observation about the EPA ruling: If Congress is supposed to authorize policy changes at a level that previously has been left to administrative agencies, then the Senate filibuster has to go. A filibuster-gridlocked Senate is not nimble enough to address the regulatory challenges of fast-changing fields like climate change or technology.

To me, that statement is independent of partisanship. If the Supreme Court is going to force Congress to take a more hands-on approach to governance, then Congress has to be able to pass legislation. If Republicans get control of Congress again, they will probably pass laws that I consider bad. But even that would be action that the public could see and respond to, maybe by electing better people to Congress. I have more faith in such a back-and-forth process than in the current nothing-can-be-done logjam, which is more likely to cause voters to give up in despair.


Ezra Klein raised a good point on his July 1 podcast (where he interviewed Kate Shaw, who is a law professor and has her own podcast "Strict Scrutiny"): If the conservative majority is serious about this new focus on history as the determining factor in its decisions, then the Court needs to have world-class historians on its staff, rather than just law clerks.

After all, the justices were not chosen for their historical expertise, and their clerks are recent law-school graduates who have probably never studied American history to any depth. That's why the historical debates between the conservative rulings and the liberal dissents sound so amateurish on both sides. (Robert Spitzer disparaged Justice Scalia's Heller decision -- the granddaddy of originalist opinions and the model for Thomas' majority opinion in Bruen -- as "law office history".)

When the current court does history, it's as if the bankers at the Federal Reserve decided not to bother consulting economists, or using IT people to keep their computer models running. ("I've calculated on this napkin that we need to raise interest rates another half percent.")

Of course, maybe that's the point. Maybe the history lessons in the recent decisions aren't intended to be accurate. Maybe they're just stories that allow the conservative majority to justify whatever it wants to do.

and reaction to Roe's reversal

https://www.newyorker.com/cartoons/daily-cartoon/tuesday-june-28th-not-your-business

Polls show abortion is rising as an election issue. A lot of pundits are calling on Democrats to make a clear commitment on the issue, more or less along the lines of the Republicans' "Contract with America" in 1994. Being vaguely pro-choice and encouraging people to vote isn't enough.

Josh Marshall (hardly a radical progressive) suggests this phrasing:

If the Democrats hold the House and add two Senators in November I will vote to pass a law making Roe’s protections the law nationwide and change the filibuster rules to guarantee that bill gets an up or down vote. And I will do that in January 2023.

As I mentioned in the Supreme Court note above, an ambitious and extremist Supreme Court means that the other branches of government have to step up and compete for power. If any vagueness in the laws is going to give this Court an opening it is eager to fill, then Congress has to be able to pass new laws as developments warrant. The filibuster absolutely has to go.


The Indianapolis Star reports that a 10-year-old girl who was six weeks and three days pregnant traveled to Indiana in order to get around Ohio's six-week abortion ban. The girl was referred by a child-abuse doctor in Ohio.

Sunday, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem was questioned about her state's abortion ban, which criminalizes any abortion not necessary to save a woman's (or girl's) life. Asked how that 10-year-old would fare in South Dakota, Noem dodged the question.

But the messiness of real life is why this issue isn't going to go away by November. (Ten-year-olds do get pregnant. Some fetuses can't be saved, and endanger their mothers without any upside. Some men will kill their girlfriends rather than take responsibility for a child.) There's going to be a steady stream of cases where radical anti-abortion laws lead to results that the public isn't going to like. It's not going to be as simple as "save the babies".


The satire site McSweeney's takes on the we-will-adopt-your-baby offers from anti-abortion couples, by describing all the things the couples won't adopt.

We want that baby when it’s nice and cute and fully formed, but we aren’t planning on adopting anything else. Obviously, we can’t adopt your morning sickness, so when you wake up at 5 a.m. to puke your guts out before work, and when you also puke your guts out at work in the employee bathroom, we won’t adopt that.

... Oh, and if you have a miscarriage and nearly bleed out in your bathroom before the paramedics can get to you? That part is not a tiny little chubby baby, so we won’t be adopting it.


One particularly annoying anti-abortion argument keeps popping up: What about the lost potential of the aborted fetus? The memes are like "What if that baby would have grown up to cure cancer?" or "What if they had aborted Jesus?"

I've begun responding to these by pointing to the lost potential of women who are thrown off their life path by an unplanned pregnancy. "It's more likely that cancer would have been cured by a woman who had to leave medical school to raise an unwanted child." Or "Maybe Mary could have saved the world herself if God hadn't forced motherhood on her."

and the pandemic

Numbers continue to be flat-ish, but to me they look ready for a jump upward after the holiday weekend. Cases are up 13% in the last two weeks, and deaths up 24%. More and more people I know are getting sick, and I wonder how many of their cases show up in the official statistics. I believe a lot of people with minor symptoms test positive at home and never enter the medical system.

and primaries

Tuesday's primary elections brought mostly good news for democracy.

In Colorado, Republicans rejected candidates for governor and senator who claim Trump won the 2020 elections. The GOP Senate nominee largely supports reproductive rights, and defeated a candidate who wants to ban abortion nationally (and who was at the 1-6 rally). Republicans rejected a secretary of state candidate who is under indictment for tampering with voting machines in an attempt to prove one of Trump's election-fraud theories.

Mississippi Republican Michael Guest was renominated for his House seat, in spite of his minor rebellion against Trump: He voted to establish a bipartisan commission to investigate 1-6, a measure that MAGA Republicans are probably sorry they torpedoed.

The more moderate candidate won the Republican nomination for governor in Illinois, though Rep. Mary Miller, the woman who last week declared the Dobbs decision "a victory for white life", defeated a less Trumpy congressman in a newly formed district that forced two sitting representatives to face off. (The district includes my hometown.) Progressive candidates won Democratic nominations for Congress in two districts in the Chicago area.

Illinois was one state where Democrats tried to game the system by helping the more radical Republican in the gubernatorial primary, in the belief that such a candidate would be easier to beat. This is a dangerous practice, and I'm happy that it failed.

and Ukraine

Russia has captured Lysychansk, the last major city in Luhansk province.

With Luhansk Province now in hand, Russian forces can aim squarely southwest at the remaining Ukrainian-held parts of the neighboring province of Donetsk, the other territory that makes up the Donbas.

The Economist predicts Putin's strategy:

You can see where Mr Putin is heading. He will take as much of Ukraine as he can, declare victory and then call on Western nations to impose his terms on Ukraine. In exchange, he will spare the rest of the world from ruin, hunger, cold and the threat of nuclear Armageddon.

and you also might be interested in ...

The Brownshirts are out.

Dozens of white supremacists marched through Boston on Saturday. The group wore white masks and were seen boarding Orange Line trains at Haymarket Station. Some carried police shields and flags. They are members of a group called Patriot Front.


Gallup reports that only 81% of Americans say they believe in God, down from 87% in 2017, and the lowest number since Gallup started asking the question in 1944. That number looks likely to fall further, because the people least like to believe are the young: only 68% of adults ages 18-29.


In Florida, the other shoe is dropping. After raising public anger about largely imaginary liberal indoctrination through "critical race theory" or "grooming", the DeSantis administration is instituting indoctrination of its own.

New civics training for Florida public school teachers comes with a dose of Christian dogma, some teachers say, and they worry that it also sanitizes history and promotes inaccuracies.

The Miami Herald:

Teachers who spoke to the Herald/Times said they don’t object to the state’s new standards for civics, but they do take issue with how the state wants them to be taught. “It was very skewed,” said Barbara Segal, a 12th-grade government teacher at Fort Lauderdale High School. “There was a very strong Christian fundamentalist way toward analyzing different quotes and different documents. That was concerning.”

Meanwhile, the Texas Education Agency is taking flak for considering changing the word "slavery" to "involuntary relocation" in the second-grade curriculum standards.

In Wisconsin, a novel about the internment of Japanese-Americans during World War II has been kicked out of the curriculum because it's "unbalanced" and presents only one side of the issue. A parent in the district commented: "The other side is racism."

and let's close with something too small to work

In this age of miniaturization, smaller is often better. But once in a while the shrinking process goes too far. Well, it's good to know that Nature also makes this mistake occasionally: Witness the pumpkin toadlet, a frog about the size of Skittle. It looks very froggish, but it doesn't have that whole jumping thing down yet. I can't explain why it's so much fun to watch them try, but it just is.