I haven't checked, but this may be the shortest Weekly Sift ever. Here's why: Given how close and how consequential tomorrow's election looks, it's hard to think about anything else. And yet, it's also hard to come up with anything worthwhile to say about it. I could try to predict who's going to win, but you'd be foolish to believe me, because I don't know. I could collect a lot of other people's predictions, but they don't know either.
We're down to the point where you can vote, you can encourage your friends to vote, and you can do some election-day volunteering. Beyond that, you can watch the Future arrive at the usual rate of one second per second.
Back in 2008, I started doing election preview posts, predicting how the evening was likely to play out, given poll-closing times and what the opinion polls were saying. The 2008 preview was so accurate that I started thinking I knew something. (I said that California's outcome would be projected almost immediately after polls closed at 11 EST, putting Obama over the top. That's exactly what happened.) I got 2016 drastically wrong, but I didn't learn my lesson and wrote a 2020 preview anyway.
This year has been an ongoing master class in the pointlessness of speculation. Pundits have talked and written endlessly about how the debates would go, whether Biden would or should drop out, what process the Democrats should use to replace him, whether Harris would do any better, who the two VP nominees should be, whether Trump's endless gaffes would cost him, what the "October surprise" might be, how various voting blocs -- women, Blacks, Hispanics, union members -- would respond to Harris, and on and on.
If you ignored all of it, you are probably better off than the rest of us, or at least calmer. By tomorrow, we will all have voted, contributed, volunteered -- or not. What has mattered is action, not divining the future.
Here's what I will say: In a typical election, late-deciding voters mostly break the same way. So for better or worse, there's a good chance we won't have the kind of photo-finish the polls are predicting.
But as we all know by now, this isn't a typical election. No one knows what the late-deciders are thinking. We'll just have to wait and see.
There are any number of other things you could choose to worry about. But there will be plenty of time to start worrying about them after Wednesday or so.
For example: Trump seems to be gearing up once again to claim power even if the voters reject him. He and Speaker Johnson have some "secret plan". Elie Mystal has a guess about what it might be. And who knows what the Supreme Court will do? Will they let him lose? Every time the Court has had a question put to it, it has ruled for Trump, often in complete opposition to precedent or even written law. How far will it go? I don't know and neither does anybody else who isn't on the Court. But unless you're on the Harris legal team, you can procrastinate on that bit of worrying until the post-election legal battles actually start -- which they won't if Trump wins legitimately (because Democrats respect the voters' right to reject them).
If Trump wins and begins assembling a fascist administration, that also would be worth worrying about, and even moreso if Republicans get control one or more houses of the new Congress. But worrying about it now won't give you any special advantage.
As for the next two days: I voted early and I sent Harris a check months ago. I've been trying to make the case for her and against him for months. Now all I can do is watch and wait -- and try not to obsess about things that may or may not happen.
If you're trying to convince some last-minute deciders to vote for Harris, here's some material to work with.
The NYT writes one paragraph that sums up why you shouldn't vote for Trump, and backs up each statement with a link to a longer article. Matt Yglesias writes a positive case for Harris, which isn't flashy because it centers on "normal" things like integrity, the rule of law, and taking a pragmatic approach to helping ordinary people solve typical problems like how to afford a house or send their kids to college.
If you're talking to someone who thinks voting for Trump is the "Christian" position, point them to this guy.
If you're talking to a progressive who won't vote for Harris because of Gaza, show them this.
One final thing: As I explained at some length in August, if you think you're nostalgic for the "Trump economy", what you're actually nostalgic for is the pre-Covid economy, when a lot of things were cheaper. But electing Trump won't bring those days back.
Around the world, governments took very similar actions to keep their economies going while fighting Covid. And around the world, those actions eventually led to inflation; it's not a Biden/Harris thing. Our inflation happened to show up after Trump left office (because that's when the new vaccines allowed the economy to reopen) but his actions had as much to do with it as Biden's. Once you recognize the hit Covid was on the economy -- and would have been even if Trump had been reelected in 2020 -- you can appreciate how well the Biden/Harris administration has managed the recovery from Covid.
Here's a metaphor that might help: Think about how you might feel as you leave the hospital after being treated for a heart attack. Do you feel as carefree and vibrant as you did before the heart attack? Probably not. But you also feel a heck of a lot better than you did when you arrived in the ER, and you should appreciate what the doctors did to pull you through.
Trump is selling nostalgia for 2019, before Covid did its damage. But on that day in 2021 when Biden was inaugurated, the "Trump economy" was a mess. It's much better now.
But to be fragile is not the same as to be perishable, as G.K. Chesterton wrote. Simply do not break a glass, and it will last a thousand years. Smash it, and it will not last an instant. Democracy is like that: fragile, but only if you shatter it.
This week everybody was talking about the campaign
One featured post tries to explain what Trump supporters could possibly be thinking.
I'm still doing my best to ignore polls and pundits' speculations about who will win. I gather than the race still considered close, which is all I really need to know at this point. For what it's worth, I will toss in my own speculation: Some last-minute shift will make the result more decisive than it looks now. I can't say which way the shift will go, but I don't think we'll be waiting all week to find out who won.
A Trump campaign spokesman repeated its standard excuse, that the model is a partisan Democrat. After all, she gave $25 to Biden's 2020 campaign. I'm always amazed anyone takes such claims seriously. I mean, maybe she's accusing Trump of groping her because she supports his opponents. But isn't it more likely that she supports his opponents because he groped her?
Trump's Madison Square Garden rally yesterday is being widely described as a hate-fest. I haven't had time to digest it all, but apparently warm-up comedian Tony Hinchcliffe thought it would be funny to describe Puerto Rico as "a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean". Several people have pointed out that Hinchcliffe was using a teleprompter, so the Trump campaign had seen what he would say and presumably approved it.
From the same rally, Tim Miller posts an ironic picture of Elon Musk and Melania Trump -- both immigrants -- with the Stephen Miller quote "America is for Americans, and Americans only."
The Democrats' most powerful speaker continues to be Michelle Obama. In Kalamazoo Saturday, she laid out the extensive consequences for women's health caused by the abortion bans that followed the Dobbs' decision, and how Trump could extend many of these consequences to the entire country. She also pleaded with "the men who love us" to understand how their own lives could be affected.
If your wife is shivering and bleeding on the operating table during a routine delivery gone bad, her pressure dropping as she loses more and more blood or some unforeseen infection spreads, and her doctors aren't sure if they can act, you will be the one praying that it's not too late. You will be the one pleading for somebody, anybody, to do something.
I had planned to do an article collecting all the former Trump allies who have told us he should never wield power again, but the NYT did it for me.
The standard Trump defense (you can see Vance give it here) is that these are all disgruntled people Trump fired. But usually the cause-and-effect ran in the other direction: Attorney General Bill Barr and cybersecurity czar Chris Krebs were fired because they disputed Trump's stolen-election lies. Mike Pence is out with Trump because he wouldn't violate the Constitution for him.
The typical order things happen is: Somebody in TrumpWorld can no longer tolerate the illegal or unethical things they're being asked to do. Then Trump fires them or otherwise forces them out. They're fired for disloyalty, not incompetence.
Not to be missed is this Jon Stewart rant about the excuses Republicans make for Trump's fascist rhetoric about "the enemy within", and how major media lets them get away with it.
Grist analyzes the climate and environmental significance of a vote for either Harris or Trump.
In Georgia Wednesday, talking about his plans for mass deportation, Trump gave us some more insight into the "again" in "Make American Great Again". He said:
We had to go back to 1798. That's when we had laws that were effective.
I don't know if they still teach this in US History classes, but the 1798 laws he's talking about are the Alien and Sedition Acts, which were a low point in US civil liberties.
As the Adams administration's relationship with France deteriorated, Federalists became increasingly worried about immigrants who might have French sympathies. So Congress passed a series of laws that together became known as the Alien and Sedition Acts. One of the Acts was the Alien Friends Act, which gave the president power to deport any non-citizen he considered dangerous.
Another, the Sedition Act, made it a crime for American citizens to "print, utter, or publish…any false, scandalous, and malicious writing" about the government.
Adams was pressured to invoke the AFA against Joseph Priestley, the chemist who isolated oxygen and figured out how to make carbonated water. Priestley had been chased out of England for his sympathy with the French Revolution, and then resettled in Pennsylvania. In many ways Priestley was precisely the kind of person the AFA targeted, but Adams resisted invoking it, citing Priestley's age and fragility.
It's impossible to say exactly how intimidated Priestley felt, but after Jefferson (a friend of Priestley and an opponent of the Acts) was elected in 1800, Priestley wrote: "It is only now that I can say I see nothing to fear from the hand of power".
During the Jefferson administration, some the Acts expired and the others were explicitly repealed. Trump may remember those laws fondly, but he can't legally invoke them.
and newspaper non-endorsements
The billionaire owners of the Washington Post and LA Times stepped in to prevent their papers from endorsing Kamala Harris. One featured post explains why this "obeying in advance" is a disturbing sign for American democracy.
When talking about how the Steward chain of hospitals went bankrupt, I said that the private equity firm Cerberus (who owned the hospitals) created Medical Properties Trust to sell the hospital's land to.
The sources I link to don't actually say that. I extrapolated from the degree of collusion the two firms displayed to conclude that they were two tentacles of the same octopus. But it seems not to be true.
In the blog The Big Picture, David Pepper describes how Ohio broke its public school system. Once ranked fifth among the state systems, it's now somewhere in the 20s and dropping, after money was siphoned off for charter schools and private school vouchers.
The Tennessee Holler writes about the 400 books Wilson County is removing from school libraries, in accordance with a recent state law.
As I study the list, the fantasy section of the high school libraries seems especially hard hit: George Martin, Sarah Maas, Diana Gabaldon, Margaret Atwood ...
For those who aren’t old enough, you cannot imagine how little race tension there was in this country before Obama got into power
This sentiment is surprisingly widespread among White conservatives, and it even becomes true with a small substitution: Replace "little race tension there was in this country" with "comfortable White people were in their privilege". My rewrite:
For those who aren’t old enough, you cannot imagine how comfortable White people were in their privilege before Obama got into power.
In my view, the increased race tension of the current era comes almost entirely from Whites freaking out about a Black man gaining power.
and let's close with something slimy
When I closed last week with a microscope enlargement of sugar from a Coke, I didn't realize that Nikon runs an annual Small World contest for similar photos. So this week I learned that slime mold can be unexpectedly interesting if you enlarge it enough.
This week I refused to pay attention to polls and speculation
I can't help learning from headlines that the race is still close, and how much more do I need to know? I know who I'm voting for, and I've already written my check to the Harris campaign. I could spend all day fretting about whether the likelihood of Harris winning is 55% or 45%, but what's the point?
Here's something I learned years and years ago when my wife was being treated for breast cancer: For the first month or two, I combed through all the statistics I could find, trying to find the numbers that fit her exact situation. Eventually, though, it dawned on me that survival and death were both possibilities too likely to ignore. No matter what study I found next, I wasn't going to be able to tell myself "That's not going to happen", and we would also have to keep making long-range plans for our life together. (She lived, and those plans have served us well.)
That was as much as the statistics could tell me, and trying to get a more precise answer out of them was pointless.
Same thing here. On this Election Night "the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat" (to use the old Wide World of Sports tagline) will both be legitimate possibilities. You're going to have to prepare yourself emotionally to face either one. No poll or expert analysis is going to tell you anything more than that.
but I couldn't help noticing Trump's weird week
One featured post covers this point, but a few noteworthy odds and ends got left out, like this photo of a Trump makeup fail.
Sure, the photo makes Trump look ridiculous, but that's not why I call it to your attention. It's also evidence of a more serious problem: He's surrounded by people who are afraid to tell him he looks ridiculous. That's why the prospect of his second term is scarier than his first term was: In his first term, he was hemmed in by people -- Don McGahn, John Kelly, Jeff Sessions, etc. -- who would tell him that what he wanted to do was illegal. Those people are gone now, and they've been replaced by yes-men.
My article also overlooked the fact that the mainstream press (like the NYT, the Boston Globe, and AP) is finally beginning to cover Trump's deterioration, after obsessing endlessly about Biden's age issues.
Dave Bautista, former pro wrestler and Marvel's Drax the Destroyer, gets real about "tough guy" Donald Trump. There's not a joke in here anywhere, but it's funny because it's true.
and Elon's campaign shenanigans
In the 2020 cycle, Trump and his people told bald-faced lies about Dominion voting machines stealing his votes. The lies were so transparent that Fox News had to pay $787 million to Dominion to settle a defamation suit. (Think about that: Defamation suits are hard to win, especially against news organizations, especially big ones who can afford the best lawyers. Trump threatens to sue news organizations all the time, but he hasn't collected a dime.)
But why not do it again? Both MTG and Elon were out spreading crap about Dominion this week, and the MAGA sheep are probably swallowing it. You know who's also doing it: Rasmussen Reports, a supposedly neutral polling organization whose polls always wind up favoring Trump -- and get included in many polling averages as if they were legit.
Elon's money is funding a lot of shady election tactics. Chris Hayes reports on how Muslim voters in Michigan are being micro-targeted with borderline antisemitic ads saying that Harris is all-in for Israel because she is controlled by her Jewish husband, while Jewish voters in Michigan are being micro-targeted with ads saying that Harris "panders to Palestine". The ads are all from the same group.
They have set up fake sites impersonating the Harris campaign using fake policy positions and then sending out text messages also impersonating the campaign which aim to drive voters to the fake site.
Josh Marshall thinks the fake web site is probably legal, but the texts might not be. Matt Yglesias makes a good point:
It tells you something that they literally made up from scratch a fake version of Kamala Harris to run against.
This should be a bigger story: The richest guy in the world, who could make billions more from the right government contracts, is funding ethically dubious projects to get a fellow billionaire into the White House. Working-class voters who believe Trump is their champion might want to think about that.
and mifepristone, round 2
When the Supreme Court tossed an anti-mifepristone lawsuit on technical grounds, you knew that couldn't be the end of the story. The other featured post details some of the creepy ideas the new lawsuit raises, like states being upset that their teen birthrate is too low. (When I saw that claim on social media, I didn't believe it. So I read the 199-page lawsuit and discovered that it's true.)
and here's another story that deserves more attention
Capitalism does some things well, but it should be kept far away from other things, like running hospitals.
Thursday, the WaPo published a column summarizing a report Senator Ed Markey put out in September about the collapse of the Steward Health Care hospital chain.
The 34-hospital chain was formed in 2010 by a private equity group, Cerberus, which acquired the hospitals as investments. The WaPo article gives the firm credit for initially having benign intentions: ObamaCare had just passed, so maybe there would be a surge of new patients able to afford health care. Running the hospitals as hospitals looked likely to be a money-maker for Cerberus.
For various reasons that turned out not to be the case. But Cerberus had to produce profits for its investors anyway, so it turned to financial engineering. It formed a real estate investment trust, Medical Properties Trust, which bought the land under Steward hospitals and leased it back to the hospitals. Rather than simply owning the land, the hospitals now had to rent it, increasing annual costs. But the transaction created both a pile of money that Steward could distribute to Cerberus shareholders, as well as a regular income stream Cerberus could collect through MPT.
The downside of this transaction was diminishing the underlying viability of the hospitals, which now struggled to cover their increased costs. In May, the chain declared bankruptcy, and state governments are now spending many millions to keep at-risk communities from losing their hospitals.
In total, Cerberus has said it made roughly $800 million on its investment in Steward, more than tripling its original investment, even as the hospitals themselves were hemorrhaging cash.
As best I can tell, none of this is illegal. It's just one more example of capitalists taking risks where the profits will be private but the losses can be socialized.
Similar stories can be told about private equity's role in the destruction of America's newspapers, especially local ones: Take over a challenged but surviving paper, borrow massively against its assets to pay inflated "management fees" to the investment company, then declare bankruptcy. It's a slow-motion version of what Tony's mob does to a local business in the "Bust Out" episode of The Sopranos.
In mythology, Cerberus is the name of Hades' three-headed dog, who guards the gate to the Land of the Dead. It's a rather macabre name for a firm that owns hospitals.
and you also might be interested in ...
From the UK, The Economist notices something a lot of American media misses: The US economy is "The Envy of the World".
Israel announced the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the likely mastermind behind the October 7 attacks. Under a different administration, Israel might use this event to declare victory and start moving towards peace.
And if you want to understand the related movement of White Christian Nationalism, Kat Abu has an hour-long video explaining it.
Doug Balloon puts aside his satirical NYT Pitchbot persona to opine about WHY the NYT has covered the campaign as badly as it has, and in particular why it has consistently sanewashed Trump. He decides against any cynical argument about financial advantage and instead attributes the Times' behavior to simple incompetence and laziness: "their system isn't built to deal with a narcissistic sociopath" and they don't want to change. The company is run by a "nepo baby" who is the son of a nepo baby, and he has hired high-level people who aren't very good at their jobs.
Not to say there aren't lots and lots of great journalists and editors at the Times. It pays well and it's tough to get good jobs in journalism, so they can certainly hire lots of great people. But I suspect that on the really big decisions, ones where Sulzberger himself or people near him weigh in, the fact neither Sulzberger or the people near him are very smart or competent plays a big role.
A commenter recently pointed me to this Lancet article, claiming that the actual number of deaths caused by the war in Gaza is probably much higher than the official estimate. Wars, the article points out, commonly produce "indirect deaths" well beyond the number of people who directly die by violence. These deaths are from disease, malnutrition, and various other causes, and they may occur even after the violence ends. Looking at past conflicts, the article claims the total death toll could be between 3 and 15 times the official count of around 42,000.
I always come back from a driving trip with a new podcast to recommend. This time I listened to Trevor Noah's "What Now?". In particular, Noah's interview with Ta-Nehisi Coates is amazing. In the final essay in his new book The Message, Coates compared the Israeli occupation of the West Bank to South Africa's apartheid. Noah grew up in South Africa, and was 10 when apartheid ended. They have a lot of interesting things to say.
and let's close with something tiny
Ever since Anton van Leeuwenhoek began to popularize the microscope in the early 1600s, people have been amazed by what ordinary objects look like under extreme magnification. In this article Scientist assembles beautiful and surprising images of extremely small things, like this close-up of a sugar found in Coca-Cola.
This week everybody should have been talking about good economic news
The pandemic laid a one-two punch on the world economy. First came the job losses, and then an inflation spike associated with reopening the economy. Those same two phenomena happened all over the world, which is why (as I often point out) it's a mistake to blame either Trump for the job losses or Biden for the inflation.
Sadly, though, most Americans understand only half of that truth: They give Trump a mulligan for his job losses while blaming Biden for inflation. In the public mind, the "Trump economy" is the pre-Covid 2019 economy, while Biden is held responsible for everything that has happened since.
What is remarkable, though, is how fast the US economy has bounced back, and the Biden administration deserves a lot of credit for that. In 2023, inflation-adjusted household income very nearly regained its 2019 high, and may well be at record levels by now. I have had trouble finding apples-to-apples statistics from other countries, but I believe no comparable nation has done as well with the Covid one-two punch as the US has.
This week we got more evidence for this view: The September jobs report came out showing a very strong economy: 254K new jobs were added (about 100K beyond economists' expectations) and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%.
Other good news: The East Coast dockworkers strike was suspended, preventing a major disruption of the economy just weeks before the election. (The work stoppage we did see is comparable to a spate of bad weather.) The shipping companies made a new offer, which was close enough to what unions are looking for to continue negotiations through January 15.
By coincidence, this week was also marked by the publication of a new book, The Message, by Ta-Nehisi Coates, who is the foremost Black public intellectual, and possibly the most significant American public intellectual. The final chapter of the book discusses his trip to the West Bank. (I haven't read the whole book, but I have read that chapter.)
The controversy this chapter has raised underlines a point I made in the featured post: how hard it is to have a reasonable discussion of Israel/Palestine. A broad theme of The Message is how writers shape the world by deciding whose stories get told. People whose stories aren't told don't get fully envisioned as human beings.
Coates sees the Palestinians as such people, and tries to counteract their less-than status by telling some of their stories. He notes that no news organization he is aware of has a Palestinian bureau chief in Jerusalem. When Palestine is discussed in American media, Palestinian voices are usually not included. (I'm guilty of this myself. Even when I criticize Israel's treatment of Palestinians, I am usually linking to liberal American Jews like Peter Beinart.)
In some circles Coates has been met with vitriol, and broad implications that he is antisemitic. One CBS interviewer in particular went after him for not including more Israeli points of view. (He does talk to ex-IDF Israelis sympathetic to the Palestinian situation.) Coates kept his cool and explained that Israeli points of view are already widely available in American media.
Coates has also faced criticism for not being a Middle Eastern expert and missing the complexity of the situation. If I might put words in Coates' mouth, he seems to be saying that solutions may be complicated, but certain basic moral judgments are simple.
The book makes many analogies between the Palestinian apartheid and slavery/Jim Crow in the US, so I'll make another one: Before the Civil War, many Northerners toured the South and came back to denounce slavery. Universally, Southerners responded the way many have responded to Coates: They said the Northerners didn't understand the complexities of the situation. How would a post-slavery Southern economy work? How would the races coexist? It was complicated.
But you didn't need answers to those questions to look at the immediate reality of slavery and say "This is wrong." That's what Coates does. He wanders through neighborhoods of the West Bank, sees how people are treated, and says "This is wrong."
and Jack Smith's evidence
The Supreme Court has done a lot to help Trump get away with his January 6 coup. They sat on their hands to delay their decision as long as possible, and then invented a notion of "presidential immunity" that no lower court had any notion of. It's not in the Constitution and there's no indication that any pre-Trump administration believed it had such immunity.
As a result, Trump's trial has been pushed past the election, and may not happen at all. This means that voters will have to decide the 2024 election without knowing precisely how Trump tried to invalidate the 2020 election. January 6 has become a he-said/she-said event, rather than the subject of a jury verdict.
But part of the delay is that the district court has to determine what charges and what evidence can survive the Supreme Court's ruling. So Jack Smith assembled a 165-page brief describing the evidence he wants to present at trial and why he thinks it should not be subject to presidential immunity. This is as much of the evidence against Trump as the public is going to see before the election.
As usual, Trump has had nothing specific to say about the evidence presented in the filing, but only assailed it in general as "election interference" and a "witch hunt". In response, two facts are worth pointing out:
Very little of the evidence the special counsel has collected comes from Democrats or never-Trump Republicans. Nearly all of it references grand jury testimony under oath by Republicans who supported the Trump campaign through Election Day. (A few, like Bill Barr, only broke with him after he started lying about his electoral defeat.)
The brief is appearing now, just before the election, because Trump has pursued every opportunity for delay, and the Republicans on the Supreme Court have aided and abetted him at every turn. Otherwise, this trial would have been over by now. If he really were innocent -- which he isn't -- Trump could have cleared his name long before the election.
and the VP debate
Last week I said that VP debates seldom move the needle in an election, and I think that held true for the Walz/Vance debate. [video, transcript]
Debates always have two impacts: in the moment and over time. People who watched the debate live tended to see Vance as the smoother debater who had fewer awkward moments. But the lasting impressions favor Walz: He confronted Vance directly on the question of who won the 2020 election, which Vance could not bring himself to answer. And Vance's objection to being fact-checked crystallized his ticket's approach, which is to get away with saying whatever they can, without regard to truth. Going forward, both clips provide fodder for Harris/Walz attack ads.
Vance's nonanswer underlines something more general and ominous: The GOP has become an autocratic party where no one dares to offend the autocrat. We saw the same thing this weekend with Speaker Mike Johnson.
On Sunday, George Stephanopoulos asked Johnson whether he can “unequivocally” say that Biden won the 2020 election and that Trump lost. The long-debunked election conspiracy is something that the former president continues to bring up at his campaign rallies, even a month before the 2024 election.
"See, this is the game that is always played by mainstream media with leading Republicans. It’s a gotcha game,” Johnson said on ABC’s “This Week.” “You want us to litigate things that happened four years ago when we’re talking about the future. We’re not gonna talk about what happened in 2020, we’re gonna talk about 2024 and how we’re gonna solve the problems for the American people.”
If Trump started saying that the sky is purple, it would become a "gotcha question" to ask other Republicans what color the sky is. They cannot contradict him, no matter how ridiculous his statements are. And this is what Trump wants for the country.
and the Helene aftermath
Most hurricanes' worst damage comes from the high winds and storm surge near landfall, as when Katrina hit New Orleans. But Helene's most serious impacts have come from the heavy rains that it carried inland to places like Asheville, North Carolina, which sits in the Appalachian mountain range.
This situation has created opportunities for unscrupulous demagogues. Marjorie Taylor Greene, for example, has promoted the outrageous conspiracy theory that Helene was sent towards rural areas that the Biden/Harris administration doesn't care about.
Yes they can control the weather. It’s ridiculous for anyone to lie and say it can’t be done.
The all-powerful "they". There's nothing "they" can't do. Fortunately, that charge was too crazy to catch on, and MTG's tweet mainly resulted in ridicule directed at her.
But Donald Trump's lies, echoed by many other Republicans, have been just credible enough to cause harm. Most damaging has been the claim that FEMA has run out of money because it spent it all housing foreign migrants.
At a campaign rally in Michigan on Thursday, Trump claimed that “Kamala spent all her FEMA money, billions of dollars, on housing for illegal migrants, many of whom should not be in our country.” He added in an election-related conspiracy theory, saying, “They stole the FEMA money, just like they stole it from a bank, so they could give it to their illegal immigrants that they want to have vote for them this season.”
This statement packs a number of lies into a small package.
Noncitizens can't vote, and there is no evidence that Harris or anyone else is trying to get them to.
Housing for migrants is a separate appropriation from disaster relief. FEMA manages both pots of money, but keeps them separate. Nothing has been stolen.
FEMA has not run out of money to respond to the disaster. If the $35 billion appropriated for disaster relief runs out, Congress can pass a supplemental appropriation, which it frequently does after major disasters. (If there is any delay in that process, it will be due to Speaker Johnson.)
Spreading this kind of disinformation has negative consequences for the very people Trump claims to be standing up for: If they think there's no money, they may not apply for help they need.
And that's just the tip of Trump's iceberg of Helene-related lies. He has also falsely claimed
Democrats don't want to help victims in Republican areas. (Republican governors and other local officials say otherwise.)
Federal help maxes out at $750. (In fact, $750 is what victims can get for immediate needs like groceries, and doesn't affect their eligibility for further help.)
Federal helicopters aren't rescuing people in North Carolina.
This is all just stuff he makes up for his own political advantage. It's further evidence of a major Harris-campaign theme: Trump doesn't care about you. He only cares about himself.
At long last, the NYT raises the question of Trump's age and whether he is all-there mentally.
Trump and Vance are claiming they don't support a federal abortion "ban", but that's because they've started calling it something different: a "minimum national standard" on abortion.
Josh Marshall has been digging deep into the Trump get-out-the-vote (GOTV) operation, which might be trying out a novel theory or might just be failing.
GOTV is an important part of the inside-baseball of campaigning. Typically, GOTV isn't about convincing people to vote for you -- that's already happened or not happened -- it's about making sure that the people who lean in your direction actually do vote. So you develop lists of people to call, looking for folks who don't always vote, but have told past callers that they favor you. (Or maybe they just look like your voters demographically). Close to the election you contact those iffy voters, making sure they know where their polling place is, how they're going to get there, and so on, offering help as needed.
By itself, GOTV isn't going to produce a landslide, but a good vs. bad GOTV operation can make the difference in a close election. That's why some Republicans have been expressing alarm about the apparent lack of a Trump GOTV push. Marshall has been trying to get to the bottom of these rumors.
What he's finding is that Trump people had a decentralized GOTV concept intended to supplement the usual door-knocking and phone-banking. But more and more it looks like the decentralized plan is replacing their traditional GOTV, which is a big gamble. Partly that's happening because the money for traditional GOTV instead went to pay Trump's legal bills.
Susan Faludi writes in the NYT about how the "protection" theme works differently for male and female candidates. Trump can fear-monger and then tell women: "I will be your protector." But a woman offering men protection runs into a deep resentment: "You cannot defend us without unmanning us."
She also notes how protection comes in two flavors: protection from threats in the real world, and symbolically acting out the tropes of strength.
The symbolic is performative. Those who crave it don’t actually want effective measures to alleviate a threat. They wish to rage against the threat, and they seek a protector in chief who validates their wrath. For them, war’s the point, not victory — outrage, not outcomes
... Time and time again, nations that have sought protection under a fantasy führer — or a real one — have reaped the whirlwind. This fall, I’m voting my fears, too, but what I fear most is the whirlwind. I’m voting my need for protection, as well. I want a Constitution protected from the paper shredders. I want democratic process and the rule of law protected from rioters and scammers. I want reasoned and stable governance, exemplified by a president whose lodestar is the well-being and security of her citizenry, not the bloodlust of his base. I want, most of all, the fate of my nation to be protected against the judgment that history’s gods level against strongman societies.
The protection theme exemplifies the often misunderstood concept of structural privilege or structural discrimination. Male and female candidates can make the same promises, but the man will be cheered while the woman provokes dismay or anger. It's not how she words or delivers the pledge, it's the fact that she's a woman.
Saturday, Elon Musk spoke (and danced wildly) at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania. I can only imagine the right-wing outrage if Mark Zuckerberg or any other social-media mogul appeared at a Harris rally.
This is a common pattern: Baseless right-wing accusations (like that social media favors Democrats) often lead to the Right blatantly doing that very thing. In the 2020 cycle, for example, Trump's false charge that Biden had stolen the election justified his very real attempt to steal it through fraud and force.
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Cory Doctorow uses Amazon Prime's decision to start showing its customers even more ads to illustrate the general concept of "enshittification" (a term he coined in 2022).
Every ad that Amazon shows you shifts value away from you — your time, your attention — to the company’s shareholders.
That’s the crux of enshittification. Companies don’t enshittify — making their once-useful products monotonically worse — because it amuses them to erode the quality of their offerings. They enshittify them because their products are zero-sum: the things that make them valuable to you (watching videos without ads) make things less valuable to them (because they can’t monetize your attention).
Effective immediately, all Oklahoma schools are required to incorporate the Bible, which includes the Ten Commandments, as an instructional support.
Now he's asking the legislature for $3 million to buy 55,000 Bibles to put in Oklahoma's classrooms. But issues of church-and-state aside, The Oklahoman found something fishy.
According to the bid documents, vendors must meet certain specifications: Bibles must be the King James Version; must contain the Old and New Testaments; must include copies of the Pledge of Allegiance, Declaration of Independence, U.S. Constitution and the Bill of Rights; and must be bound in leather or leather-like material.
Almost no Bibles on the market meet all those criteria, but two do: The God Bless the U.S.A. Bible for $60 each, and the We the People Bible for $90. Both are endorsed by Donald Trump. A few months ago, BBC reported that Trump had made $300,000 from the first one.
Paying $60-$90 for a leather-bound Bible just isn't necessary. The text of the Bible can be downloaded free online, and there are a variety of free Bible apps for your phone. If you insist on a physical copy, you'll find a wide selection for less than $10. In any version, you can look at John 2:14-16 to see how Jesus felt about this kind of profiteering.
and let's close with something that turns down the voltage
You don't see a lot of cartoons based on electrical engineering concepts.
Here’s the guy that inherited $200 million. If he hadn’t inherited $200 million, you know where Donald Trump would be right now? Selling watches in Manhattan.
Hurricane Helene hit the Florida panhandle Friday as a Category 4 hurricane, then proceeded inland through Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia, and Tennessee "causing 64 deaths and severe damage. Millions lost power, and the storm caused up to $110 billion in losses, with rescue efforts still underway in many areas."
Disaster footage hits harder when you recognize the places the news people are talking about. Here's a news clip from Asheville, NC, where I've vacationed.
There's always an argument about whether any particular storm or disaster is caused by climate change, but Helene's rapid transition from Category 2 to Category 4 is the kind of thing that didn't used to happen. Hurricanes pick up energy from warm ocean waters, and climate change has been warming the oceans.
The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) should be dismantled and many of its functions eliminated, sent to other agencies, privatized, or placed under the control of states and territories
and Mayor Adams' indictment
The most recent Democrat to run afoul of Biden's Department of Justice is New York Mayor Eric Adams, who was indicted Wednesday on five counts, revolving around bribery and illegal campaign contributions from sources related to the government of Turkey. (The NY Post had a classic headline: "Grand Theft Ottoman".) The charges go back to his term as Borough President of Brooklyn.
Adams has pleaded not guilty and pledged to stay in office.
Merrick Garland's Justice Department is supposedly "weaponized" against Republicans, but somehow they've found time to prosecute not just Adams, but also Democratic Senator Bob Menendez and Congressman Henry Cuellar, in addition to Jack Smith's indictments of Donald Trump. Maybe it's time to recognize that DoJ is just enforcing the law.
As satisfying as such results are to a country at war, they tend to have little long-term impact. American attacks in Afghanistan were constantly killing high-ranking Taliban officials, and yet the Taliban won the war. Nasrallah himself replaced a previous Hezbollah commander who was killed by an Israeli raid in 1992.
As long as there is grass-roots support for resistance, new leaders will always emerge. And short of genocide, there is no purely military way to stamp out grass-roots resistance. Ultimately, peace has to be negotiated with leaders who have enough popular credibility to make concessions.
Israel’s fundamental problem is that it’s holding millions of Palestinians who lack basic rights and there are many people all over the Middle East who are outraged by that, and some of them are willing to fight Israel over it.
That fact has military consequences, but at its root is not a problem with a military solution.
Thomas Friedman sees Netanyahu's strategy as a blunder that risks Israel's future.
Israel is in terrible danger. It is fighting the most just war in its history — responding to the brutal, unprovoked murder and abduction of women and children and grandparents by Hamas — and yet today Israel is more of a pariah state than ever.
Why? Because when you fight a war like this with no political horizon for this long — one that denies any possibility for more-moderate Palestinians to govern Gaza — the Israeli military operation there just starts to look like endless killing for killing’s sake. That is just what Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran want.
The people I am quoting here are not antisemites or even anti-Zionists. They are American Jews with a strong commitment to Israel who see no future in the current Israeli policies.
and Trump jumping the shark
I was skeptical two weeks ago when Jay Kuo posted "He's jumped the shark" to his Substack blog.
Jumping the shark became a cautionary metaphor for when a show goes awry and is desperate for new ideas and ratings. And since Trump is fundamentally a television personality, and we are all living through his twisted reality show, it is notable that, in desperation over his flagging candidacy and polls showing him trailing Vice President Kamala Harris, the writer, producer and chief protagonist of Unhappy Days has now jumped the shark, too.
Kuo interpreted the eating-cats-and-dogs libel and "I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT!" as shark jumps, desperate pleas for the public attention Trump used to get as a matter of course. Well, maybe. Both took old reliable Trump themes -- immigrants are ruining America and outspoken women are nasty -- and turned them up to 11. But I wasn't convinced.
Lately, though, Trump himself has been convincing me. Another longstanding Trump theme has been: "I'm a billionaire. Can you send me your money?" Initially, of course, he bragged about being so rich he could self-fund his 2016 campaign. ("I don't need anybody's money.") But that didn't last, and much of that early self-funding consisted of loans that were paid back to him by red-hatters from trailer parks who sent his campaign $25 a month.
But as Election Day approaches and the possibility of permanent exile from the spotlight looms, Trump may not be campaigning that hard, but he is going all out to fleece his sheep as thoroughly as possible. The latest grifts are dialed up well past 11, to 14 or 15.
Of course there are the $500 gold (or silver, if you're not really a true believer) Trump sneakers, and the autographed Trump Bible for $1,000 -- or $60 without the signature. ($1,000 is cheap. You're thousands of years too late to get Jesus or Moses to autograph your Bible. But it's not too late for Trump.) Those have been available for a long time.
But now you can get a gold-plated coin commemorating him surviving the July assassination attempt. And $99 Trump digital trading cards that (if you buy 75 or more of them) will get you a fragment of the suit he wore when he debated Biden in June.
Even that is just chump change, though. If you're a real Trumper, how can you resist the new Trump Watch? For a mere $100K, you can get 1 of 147 numbered gold watches with diamonds. They don't actually exist yet, will probably be made in China, may not look like the ones in the ad, and Trump has nothing to do with them other than a licensing agreement and a marketing video. But they're guaranteed to be gaudy and say "Trump" somewhere. What more could you ask for?
Too rich for your blood? Get the $499 version (which The Bulwark estimates costs $60 to make; they guess the $100K watch might cost as much as $20K).
And then there are Trump investments. If you had bought Trump Media stock when it went public on March 26, you might have paid $79 a share. Friday it closed at $14.75, so your $10,000 investment would be worth $1,867. And even at that price, investment professionals warn that it's wildly overvalued.
Given that DJT’s main asset is the social media platform Truth Social, with annual revenues less than $5 million, it’s hard to validate an enterprise value above $2 billion.
Have any more capital burning a hole in your pocket? Soon you'll be able to invest in World Liberty Financial, a Trump-controlled cryptocurrency exchange that will have its own digital coin (which you could use to bribe the president should Trump manage to win the election). Now that's a sure thing if I've ever seen one.
Trump has also been pushing his authoritarian rhetoric past 11. In Erie Sunday, he discussed shoplifting and other retail crime. His solution: Turn the police loose on criminals without any rules.
The police aren’t allowed to do their job. ... You know, if you had one day, like, one real rough, nasty day ... One rough hour, and I mean real rough. The word will get out and it will end immediately. End immediately. You know? It will end immediately.
A right-wing media-watching group says that Google's search algorithm is more favorable to Harris than Trump. Trump's reaction: Prosecute Google.
This is an ILLEGAL ACTIVITY, and hopefully the Justice Department will criminally prosecute them for this blatant Interference of Elections. If not, and subject to the Laws of our Country, I will request their prosecution, at the maximum levels, when I win the Election, and become President of the United States!
They were very brave, the Supreme Court. Very brave. And they take a lot of hits because of it. It should be illegal, what happens. You know, you have these guys like playing the ref, like the great Bobby Knight. These people should be put in jail the way they talk about our judges and our justices, trying to … sway their vote, sway their decision.
Republicans continue to discuss abortion in the most ham-handed ways. A little over a week ago, Ohio Senate candidate Bernie Moreno said this:
You know, the left has a lot of single issue voters. Sadly, by the way, there’s a lot of suburban women, a lot of suburban women that are like, "Listen, abortion is it. If I can’t have an abortion in this country whenever I want, I will vote for anybody else." … OK. It’s a little crazy by the way, but — especially for women that are like past 50 — I’m thinking to myself, "I don’t think that’s an issue for you."
Yeah. How dare a woman who can't get pregnant care about abortion? Only men who can't get pregnant are allowed to care about abortion. People should only care about issues that effect their bodies. Why do you care about it, Bernie Moreno? It's abortion, not the rising price of extra-small condoms.
More generally, Moreno's "whenever I want" framing shows a profound misunderstanding of the whole concept of Freedom. There may be a lot of things I don't want to do at the moment. But that doesn't I'm OK with the government telling me I can't do them. For example, I may not be planning to read any of the books Moms for "Liberty" wants to ban from public libraries. But I still object to banning them, because Freedom.
And then there's this from Trump, which I'm cobbling together from twosources:
I make this statement to the great women of our country. Sadly, women are poorer than they were four years ago, are less healthy than they were four years ago, are less safe on the streets than they were four years ago, are paying much higher prices for groceries and everything else than they were four years ago. I will fix all of that, and fast, and at long last this nation, and national nightmare, will end. It will end. Because I am your protector. ... You will no longer be abandoned, lonely or scared. You will no longer be in danger. You’re not gonna be in danger any longer. You will no longer have anxiety from all of the problems our country has today. You will be protected, and I will be your protector. Women will be happy, healthy, confident and free. You will no longer be thinking about abortion.
My first thought after hearing this was "These are not the droids you're looking for." Trump seems to be making a very inept attempt to do a Jedi mind-trick, and I'm not sure who he expects to fall for it. Women are supposed to forget about their right to bodily autonomy because a man (who has a long history of fraud) offers some vague promises about how wonderful he will make their lives? Who's going to buy that pitch?
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The Walz-Vance vice presidential debate is tomorrow night. I expect Walz to do well, but VP debates seldom move the needle.
A progressive grass-roots media group in Michigan posts a disturbing report about their experiences at a Trump rally in Warren Friday. I'm not putting too much stock in it, because it is an anti-MAGA group I've never heard of before, and they offer no video or other supporting evidence. But it's worth noting to see if it lines up with any subsequent reports.
In Eugene, Oregon you get three choices when you call for help from the city: Police, Fire, and CAHOOTS (Crisis Assistance Helping Out on the Streets). If somebody is losing control and acting out in disturbing (but not obviously dangerous) ways, maybe they don't need armed police officers shouting orders at them. Some other professionals might be better trained to deal with their situation.
Here, all you have to do is press 3 instead of 1. This is what is meant by “defund the police” (a phrase that we need to eliminate asap). Diverting SOME funds away from police in order to bolster community services like this.
